SUSA's Minnesota poll is equally unfathomable. McCain TIES Obama in the 18-34 group? Ridiculous. McCain wins Independents by 11? And still is only tied? Absurd.
I do not believe Minnesota is even competitive myself. I think Obama has a lock on Minnesota.
How about North Carolina? Is it REALLY a 4 point race? This one has demographics that make it more believable. Obama loses whites (79% of the electorate) by 54-31 and wins African Americans (18% of the electorate) by 86-7.
In 2004 general election, African Americans comprised 26% of the North Carolina electorate, and John Kerry carried them by 85-14. There is no reason to believe that Obama will not at least match that turnout of African American voters and will certainly do better than 85% of the African American vote. Here's the part that IS hard to believe - that Obama will only lose whites by 23 points in North Carolina. John Kerry and John Edwards lost white North Carolinians in 2004 by 46 points. If Obama cuts it to 35, it will be a huge achievement.
Assume, for the sake of argument, 72% of the North Carolina electorate will be white and Obama pushes African American participation to 28% of the North Carolina electorate. Assume further that Obama carries 92% of the African American vote. Assume further that he improves on the Kerry-Edwards performance in North Carolina and gets 35% of the white vote. THEN, Obama wins North Carolina 51-49.
In short, for Obama to win North Carolina, he needs a miracle basically. Record breaking African American turnout COUPLED with a record breaking performance for a Democrat with white North Carolinians - an 8 point improvement over a ticket that included a native son of North Carolina.
It ain't going to happen people.
One last poll to discuss - Ras' Virginia poll that has Obama plus one. the problem with Ras is he does not provide crosstabs. but let's run the exercise based on the 2004 election. In 2004, Kerry/Edwards won the African American vote (21% of the electorate) by 87-12 and lost the white vote by 68-32 (72% of the electorate). The remainder 7% of the Virginia vote was Latino, Asian and other.
Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that Obama pushes African American turnout up to 23% of the Virginia vote and wins the group by 92-8. Let's further assume Obama is able to outperform Kerry/Edwards and capture 35% of the white vote. Let's further assume that Obama capture the 5% of the "other vote" by 65-35. The result is . . . a 50-50 tie.
So assuming an incredible performance for Obama in Virginia (Note - Jim Webb won 42% of the white and 685 of the Asian vote, 3%) in 2006, and barely beat George Allen), and he might squeak out a victory.
Here's my point - Obama CAN win Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Colorado, Minnesota, New Mexico, Nevada, etc. Hell, he should. But it is absurd to argue that Obama's election strategy hinges on winning Virginia and North Carolina. Fight for them? Of course! That helps keep McCain out of Ohio and Michigan especially. But COUNT on them? Please, no.
By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only
