The latest Colorado Poll released (Denver Post-Mason Dixon) has Sen. Barack Obama leading John McCain by 5 points.

Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 44 percent. Colorado unaffiliated voters, the critical voting bloc making up more than one-third of the state electorate, are backing Obama 57 percent to 32 percent. Four percent of those polled, however, were still undecided.

I noted Friday that the Obamas have made four visits to Colorado in the past week and that Michelle Obama will be here Monday night.

McCain and Palin have added last minute Colorado stops to their itineraries. Palin will be in Colorado Springs Monday while John McCain will be coming to Grand Junction, another Republican stronghold at noon on Election Day.

One thing is for sure, if Obama does not win this election, the WaPo/ABC poll will have a lot of egg on its face. Today they have Obama leading McCain by 54-43 among likely voters. Earlier today, the WaPo pollster Jon Cohen wrote:

[I]f the trustworthy polls continue showing Obama ahead and McCain wins, it would be a monumental failure for political scientists, reporters and pollsters alike -- an indictment worse than New Hampshire, worse even than 1948. I think the quality pollsters have done a good, professional job this year. I don't think we'll get bitten. Even so, I'll be a little worried until it's all over. I'm not sure what kind of night I'll have on Tuesday. But I'm sure I'm going to have a nervous one on Monday.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Jenny Price is a crime victim. Her brother was murdered. It is understandable that she feels no good will for the murderer. Yet she opposes California's Prop. 9, the Victims Bill of Rights Act of 2008.

It would restrict offenders' rights from arrest to imprisonment in myriad ways. For example, it reduces the number of parole hearings inmates are entitled to and does away with state-provided lawyers for parole violators. What disturbs me most, however, is that prosecutors would be required to consider the opinions of victims' relatives on charges, sentencing and parole. The measure also would remove all limits on the number of family members who could speak at sentencing and parole hearings.

Opponents of Proposition 9 call it unnecessary (California has a victims' bill of rights, but it's not in the Constitution), expensive to enforce and vulnerable to challenges. They should be more direct: It is unjust.

In remarkably clear terms, Price explains the unfairness of a victim's "right" to influence sentencing: [more ...]

Fred Eshelman, "a wealthy North Carolina based pharmaceutical executive," finances a conservative group that claims to communicate "with a zingy edge and a sense of humor." An example of that humor is an attack ad airing today. The ad exploits Joe Biden's prediction that the next president will be "tested" by an international crisis.

The script of the latest attack ad is less provocative than than the images used. Along with footage of the Twin Towers, the commercial is shot stylistically like the Fox show “24” with shaky camera images of dark-skinned men building a bomb, and ends with the bomb’s detonation in a city. The ad also uses an image of Obama next to one of the terrorists driving a van.

[more ...]

Your turn.

The final CNN poll appears to push leaners, leaving only 1% undecided and having Obama at 53 and McCain at 46. This is significant because it puts the poll to the test - it leaves no room for "undecideds breaking to McCain." It has McCain at a realistic number - McCain is not going to pull 42% on Tuesday.

While there is divergence on the margin of victory, there is not a single poll that has McCain winning the election.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

This nonsense bothers me because in fact if you believe Mason Dixon, as NBC is pretending to do, Obama is actually gaining momentum. The race is not tightening according to Mason Dixon. The Obama lead is growing. A few more examples. In Colorado, Mason Dixon's 10/28-9 Colorado poll gives Obama a 5 point lead, 49-44. In its previous 9/29-10/1 Colorado poll, Mason Dixon had the race tied, 44-44. In Missouri, Mason Dixon has the race unchanged from its poll last week, a poll NBC commissioned, McCain by 1. In Ohio, Mason Dixon had McCain leading by 1 last week and now has McCain by 2.

This is not a knock on Mason Dixon - clearly they have seen the race closer than every other pollster all year. Whether that is right or wrong is another issue, but what is clear is that across the board Mason Dixon is showing movement towards OBAMA, not McCain. The Media incompetence on polling remains stunning, though not surprising.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Quick message to Joe Scarborough of MSNBC - who is screaming about "tightening" in the state polls - when Obama increases his lead in the Mason Dixon polls - that does not signal tightening.

For example, Scarborough keeps talking about "tightening" in Nevada, based on a 10/28-9 Mason-Dixon poll showing Obama up 4, 47-43. For Joe's information, last month's M-D 10/8-9 Nevada poll had Obama leading in Nevada by just 2, 47-45. Similarly in Virginia, Joe is screaming about tightening based on a 10/29-30 M-D poll showing Obama by 3, 47-44. The problem for Joe is M-D's 10/20-21 VA poll, for NBC no less, had Obama up 2, 47-45. What about Pennsylvania? Is it tightening according to Mason Dixon - MSNBC's preferred pollster? No. In M-D's September 16-18 PA poll, Obama only led by 2, 46-44. In M-D's 10/27-8 PA poll, Obama leads by 4, 47-43. How about Florida? Is it tightening? MSNBC is touting the M-D FL 10/29-30 poll that has Obama by 2, 47-45. A week before, for NBC (did you miss that poll Joe?) Mason Dixon had McCain ahead in Florida by 1, 46-45. Tightening? Uh, no.

Bottom line, there is no tightening and you should not pay attention to the Scarboroughs of the world. He really knows nothing about polling.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Both in 2000 and 2004, the popular vote loser won or came close to winning the Presidency. In 2000, Bush lost the popular vote and then the Supreme Court stole Florida on his behalf (to be fair, the Republican House of Representatives would have stolen it for him as well.) In 2004, John Kerry would have won the Presidency with a 120,000 vote shift in Ohio despite losing the popular vote by 2.5% (over 3 million votes.) So could it happen this year? In a word, no.

Barring a miracle, Barack Obama will win the popular vote on Tuesday. So how could John McCain win the Presidency without winning the popular vote? Winning squeakers in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana? He still loses the Presidency even if he does all that. Here's the thing - McCain will have to win in Pennsylvania or Colorado and Nevada as well to win the Presidency. And if McCain wins in all those states, he will win the popular vote.

The polls show Obama winning by between 5 and 13 points. While it is true that the Presidential Election is 50 different elections it is also true that if he wins the aggregate election, John McCain will win the popular vote.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

The UK's Times Online ranks the greatest American presidents. Abraham Lincoln is first on the list. A worthy choice, although my personal favorite, Thomas Jefferson, is ranked a disappointing fourth.

In last place: James Buchanan. The Times Online ranks the current Bush in 37th place, tied with Nixon. Harrison, Van Buren, and Pierce round out the bottom.

Live from New York, Celebrity John McCain hosts Saturday Night Live tonight. This is an open thread to discuss his performance or anything else.

Update(TL): Anita and I loved the intro. It was the most human we've ever seen McCain. Cindy's role was perfect. Palin holding the t-shirt was genius. They were almost likable. Too little, too late though. Thank goodness. Now we're looking forward to the skewering of Olbermann. (We're also on our third biff of the evening.)

Update: Transcript of McCain segment below:

Remember this Saturday Night Live skit, showing John McCain slinking away from a George Bush endorsement? One of the few politicians with a lower approval rating than Bush has emerged from his bunker to stump for McCain.

“Earlier today, Dick Cheney came out of his undisclosed location and hit the campaign trail. He said that he is, and I quote, ‘delighted to support John McCain,’” Obama said at an outdoor rally in this Colorado town where he was accompanied by his wife and two young daughters.

“I’d like to congratulate Sen. McCain on this endorsement because he really earned it. That endorsement didn’t come easy. Sen. McCain had to vote 90% of the time with George Bush and Dick Cheney to get his support.”

Cheney gave his speech in Wyoming, perhaps the only state that still welcomes his presence. But why let Cheney see daylight? Surely the McCain campaign isn't worried that Wyoming will turn blue.