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Tightening? Uh, No

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 07:23:23 AM EST
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Quick message to Joe Scarborough of MSNBC - who is screaming about "tightening" in the state polls - when Obama increases his lead in the Mason Dixon polls - that does not signal tightening.

For example, Scarborough keeps talking about "tightening" in Nevada, based on a 10/28-9 Mason-Dixon poll showing Obama up 4, 47-43. For Joe's information, last month's M-D 10/8-9 Nevada poll had Obama leading in Nevada by just 2, 47-45. Similarly in Virginia, Joe is screaming about tightening based on a 10/29-30 M-D poll showing Obama by 3, 47-44. The problem for Joe is M-D's 10/20-21 VA poll, for NBC no less, had Obama up 2, 47-45. What about Pennsylvania? Is it tightening according to Mason Dixon - MSNBC's preferred pollster? No. In M-D's September 16-18 PA poll, Obama only led by 2, 46-44. In M-D's 10/27-8 PA poll, Obama leads by 4, 47-43. How about Florida? Is it tightening? MSNBC is touting the M-D FL 10/29-30 poll that has Obama by 2, 47-45. A week before, for NBC (did you miss that poll Joe?) Mason Dixon had McCain ahead in Florida by 1, 46-45. Tightening? Uh, no.

Bottom line, there is no tightening and you should not pay attention to the Scarboroughs of the world. He really knows nothing about polling.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

< The Polls - 11/2 | More On Mason Dixon "Tightening" >

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    Tightening? Uh, No | 42 comments (42 topical)

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    ya (5.00 / 0) (#1)
    by connecticut yankee on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 07:49:23 AM EST
    Yeah, I watch morning Joe sometimes and Ive found Joe's performance pretty rough lately.  As the election gets closer his GOP dna is taking over.

    This is no knock on Mason Dixon (5.00 / 1) (#2)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 07:51:02 AM EST
    which has its model of the electorate and is applying them.

    They are not claiming the race is tightening, Scarborough is.

    Polls schmolls (5.00 / 0) (#3)
    by lentinel on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 08:00:24 AM EST
    The media will begin to circle around the "tightening" idea because it is in their commercial interests to do so.

    They want viewers glued to their TV screens, looking for guidance and comfort from the self-styled celebrities who pass for pundits and experts.

    It would be a commercial disaster if the thing was over by 11PM.

    Actually, they could do us all a favor by waiting until the polls closed on the West coast before telling us what their pathetic and invasive and manipulative "exit polls" are saying. That way, we could remain engaged in the democratic process, the election would not be influenced by these cretins, and they would have an audience to whom to sell their crappy merchandise.

    The Great Irony (5.00 / 0) (#31)
    by zvs888 on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 12:17:23 PM EST
    Is that the GOP attracted far more minorities under Bush's 2000/2004 campaigns.

    Instead they've shot themselves in the foot amongst Latinos, and blacks are rallying to Obama.

    We all saw their convention.  It was like 95+% white with a token black or latino person every so often...

    Scarborough the Symptom (5.00 / 0) (#32)
    by kaleidescope on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 01:14:27 PM EST
    It isn't that Scarborough knows nothing about polling. He does.  It's that he has to pretend he knows nothing because otherwise, the media would have to change its "too close to call" narrative.

    The shift would have to be toward, how the losing Republicans can attempt to recover to run another day, or how the winning Democrats will actually try to govern.

    And that would mean that the media would be simply assuming the Democrats win.  

    And that would tend to demoralize Republicans, driving down their turn out and affecting down ticket races across the country.  And that would have Republicans screaming bloody murder.

    The courtier media shrinks from any reporting -- no matter how true or pertinent it is -- that would in a big way hurt Republicans or that would even have Republicans screaming bloody murder.

    Which says it all about the courtier media.  Their reporting is ALWAYS slave to the needed establishment narrative, no matter what the facts.

    And Joe Scarborough's feigned ignorance about polling is just a symptom of that.

    A "1" for labels that really (5.00 / 1) (#38)
    by Cream City on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 03:54:49 PM EST
    don't belong in the sort of America your candidate claims for you.   Really, look up videos -- they exist -- of Klan rallies.  On behalf of friends and relatives of mine who will vote Republican, and some who have been to rallies for their candidate, please do not do as neocons have done for years.

    A Reverse Rush Limbaugh is just as much of an a**.

    This election is bringing out some (none / 0) (#40)
    by ThatOneVoter on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 05:20:42 PM EST
    overripe strange fruit.

    Parent
    BTD... (none / 0) (#4)
    by easilydistracted on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 08:03:12 AM EST
    Huffington reports this morning that a negative Reverend Wright Ad, until now limited to just several battleground states, is going nationwide over the next two days, thanks to funding by some religious group.  And, NYT this morning has an article about a rather large number of purported independents that still haven't made up their minds.  Personally, I think that a voter still undecided at this late date is, well, totally lacking appropriate decision making skills. Anyway, do you envision the resurrection of the Reverend Wright matter on a national scale having any impact at this late stage, by swaying more of these alleged procrastinating indies toward Mac and consequently shifting some of the close battlegrounds in his direction?    

    How tactfully you phrase it..... (5.00 / 0) (#34)
    by Camorrista on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 02:18:32 PM EST
    Personally, I think that a voter still undecided at this late date is, well, totally lacking appropriate decision making skills.

    In this week's New Yorker, David Sedaris on undecided voters:

    To put them in perspective, I think of being on an airplane. The flight attendant comes down the aisle with her food cart and, eventually, parks it beside my seat. "Can I interest you in the chicken?" she asks. "Or would you prefer the platter of sh*t with bits of broken glass in it?"

    To be undecided in this election is to pause for a moment and then ask how the chicken is cooked.

    Parent

    Thanks -- this is the clean version. (none / 0) (#35)
    by easilydistracted on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 02:37:10 PM EST
    My true thoughts are more along the lines of David Sedaris.

    Parent
    Just saw one this AM (none / 0) (#8)
    by gyrfalcon on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 09:05:40 AM EST
    on Dish, but the sponsorship didn't mention anything that sounded like a religious group, it was Republican (or GOP) something-something PAC.

    Parent
    National Republican Trust Pac (none / 0) (#12)
    by gyrfalcon on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 09:09:06 AM EST
    Huffpo reminds me, but the piece I read (titled "The Stench Run") says nothing about a religious group.  Is there a second ad funded by a religious group?


    Parent
    I revisted the post (none / 0) (#28)
    by easilydistracted on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 09:55:05 AM EST
    and, no, not a religious group.  You are correct. My mistake.

    Parent
    Already a big cable buy (none / 0) (#13)
    by andgarden on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 09:11:07 AM EST
    I saw the ad twice last night, and not in a battleground.

    Parent
    In NoVa (none / 0) (#14)
    by jtaylorr on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 09:12:25 AM EST
    dozens of  "GOD D**M AMERICA" signs have sprung up in medians everywhere.


    Parent
    So do I really have to donate (none / 0) (#29)
    by lilburro on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 10:39:17 AM EST
    to Obama again??

    They raised an outrageous amount of money, and now in the last few days McCain nonetheless has more.  Argh.

    Parent

    Because (none / 0) (#30)
    by zvs888 on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 12:15:25 PM EST
    McCain is moving tons of money to TV ads to keep up.

    Obama's ground game should be multiple times effective due to the McCain campaign sapping their ground resources to keep up on air.

    Parent

    Many are not undecideds (none / 0) (#36)
    by Cream City on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 03:47:02 PM EST
    They're "not telling you's."

    In this political climate, and especially with FISA. . . .

    Parent

    Are you snarking? (5.00 / 0) (#39)
    by lilburro on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 04:00:18 PM EST
    Do you really think people are telling pollsters they are undecided for fear of being eavesdropped upon thanks to FISA?

    Parent
    Of course, sure, it's snark. (none / 0) (#43)
    by Cream City on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 09:17:25 PM EST
    Now wave to the nice man from the gummint who's watching us. . . .

    Parent
    Obama was actually inoculated (none / 0) (#5)
    by brodie on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 08:31:35 AM EST
    against 11th hour Rev Wright attacks since this matter was well pubbed for days and days in the primaries.  It won't matter much now.

    It will take something entirely new and very newsworthy coming out against Obama to undo his solid lead.

    Undecideds will have to go overwhelmingly for McSame for him to pull it out, barely.  It would be the greatest comeback, and for no really good reason, in political history.  

    In fact, it would be such an unusual turnaround of his fortunes, should he somehow be elected, that most people in this country would immediately be suspicious of the official numbers -- and for good reason.

    Undecideds (none / 0) (#17)
    by zvs888 on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 09:16:32 AM EST
    And some % of Obama's voters.

    Not going to happen.  Obama is over 50 in the states that matter; this cake is baked.

    Parent

    Perhaps we owe the bloward Rush L some thanks... (none / 0) (#27)
    by easilydistracted on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 09:49:11 AM EST
    Brodie I'm glad you broached the idea of the Wright matter perhaps being put to rest long ago because it was fully scrutinized during the lengthy democratic primary.

    Here's some irony to ponder: months ago, ole Rush was convinced that the lengthy democratic primary and its overall tenor was the result of his "operation chaos."   As I recall, he was quite amused and extremely pleased over his handiwork.

    I submit that Obama emerged from the primary more battle-ready for the general election -- and arguably that was the result of the contentious and lengthy primary, regardless of its underlying cause.  For example, the duration of the primary permitted Obama sufficient time to efficiently resolve and effectively tamp down potentially damaging information like the Wright incident.
    So, if Rush's shenanigans truly impacted the length and tone of a primary that ultimately worked to make our candidate more electable, then it only follows that Rush had a helpful hand in electing our candidate. Perhaps come early Wednesday morning, we should all pass along a word of thanks to Rush.  

    Parent

    No, he was "inocuated" by (none / 0) (#33)
    by gyrfalcon on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 01:55:45 PM EST
    McCain's refusal to allow his campaign or the 527s to use Rev. Wright.  It could and probably would have made a real difference earlier when people were still deciding what they thought of Obama, but it's too late now.


    Parent
    O/T but on MTP John Kerry just (none / 0) (#6)
    by ruffian on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 08:35:50 AM EST
    guaranteed there will be Republican cabinet members in the Obama administration.  He agreed with Bob Kerrey's statements of earlier this week.

    Which brand is it that is struggling these days?  

    I do think something may be happening in PA (none / 0) (#7)
    by andgarden on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 09:04:37 AM EST
    There is tightening both in the Morning Call tracker and in the just released SUSA (They forgot their tracking graph for some reason).

    7 point lead has you worried? (5.00 / 0) (#9)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 09:06:08 AM EST
    You are intent on worrying I see.

    Parent
    A 7 point lead with McCain getting 16% of (5.00 / 0) (#10)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 09:06:48 AM EST
    the A-A vote.

    Come on.

    Parent

    No question, that part is wrong (none / 0) (#11)
    by andgarden on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 09:09:00 AM EST
    but I'm talking about the trend. SUSA had Obama at 55% of the 13th and 53% ten days later. Dropping down to 51% does concern me.

    Of course, it could just be noise, and they say they'll have one last report just before the election.

    I worry most about PA because there are no banked votes.

    Parent

    Did you read Blumenthal? (none / 0) (#16)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 09:16:01 AM EST
    McCain goes from 40 to 43. Obama unchanged.

    Mondale narrowed the gap in 1984 too.

    Unless you expected Obama to win by 15 in Pa, I do not understand your point.

    Parent

    I want him to meet or exceed 51% (none / 0) (#18)
    by andgarden on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 09:17:33 AM EST
    And I think that's just about where he is right now.

    Parent
    Nonsense (none / 0) (#22)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 09:22:54 AM EST
    even if Undecideds break 2-1 for McCain Obama gets 53%.

    Look, there is not a state in the country, not one, where Obama will do worse than Kerry.

    That includes Pennsylvania.

    Parent

    In PA, I'm thinking 3:1 (none / 0) (#23)
    by andgarden on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 09:25:57 AM EST
    I do think Obama is on track for a strong win, and will probably win Pennsylvania, but I don't like seeing last minute volatility in PA.

    Parent
    Well (none / 0) (#24)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 09:28:09 AM EST
    You are intent on worrying I see.

    Well fine, then worry about whether Obama will win Pa by more than 4. If you have to worry, that is a good thing to worry about.

    Parent

    yes, I am intent on worrying, and yes (5.00 / 1) (#26)
    by andgarden on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 09:29:42 AM EST
    if a 4 pt win in PA is the worst thing that happens, I will not be upset.

    Parent
    Mark Blumenthal: (none / 0) (#15)
    by andgarden on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 09:14:05 AM EST
    The one place where polls show unambiguous evidence of narrowing margin is Pennsylvania, where the McCain campaign has placed great emphasis (both in candidate visits and television advertising) over the last week. Three new releases yesterday -- including the daily tracking from Muhlenberg University -- show Obama leading by margins varying 4 to 7 points. Obama still leads on our trend estimate by almost 8 points (51.6% to 43.7%) but the margin has narrowed nearly 5 points in the last week.

    What is less obvious from the table above is that most of the change in Pennsylvania involves an increase in McCain's support -- from 40.3% to 43.8% -- while Obama has lost just a single point on our estimate (from 52.8% to 51.6%).

    I think this is a fair assessment.

    Parent
    All of McCain's gains (none / 0) (#19)
    by zvs888 on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 09:18:11 AM EST
    In Rasmussen were from AAs.

    PA is still a 53-46 race with the undecideds locked in...

    Parent

    Something like that seems likely (none / 0) (#20)
    by andgarden on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 09:20:01 AM EST
    fingers crossed. . .

    Parent
    Just look at it this way (none / 0) (#21)
    by zvs888 on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 09:22:10 AM EST
    As long as the national trackers stay at 5+ point leads, there's no way PA is smaller than 5.

    It's a state with a majority of the population registered Democrats.

    McCain really would have to make this a 2 or 3 point election to pull that off.

    Barring that, there is no PA strategy for McCain.  It was all precipated upon the national vote closing, which isn't happening...

    Parent

    Todd Palin has been working the NRA (none / 0) (#37)
    by Cream City on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 03:51:13 PM EST
    group, a sizeable group, in Pannsylvania, from a video I saw.  He uses the Obama quote about bitter, gun-clinging, etc.  

    So it continues to be guesswork about western PA rural turnout vs. Philly fans.  (From what we've seen of them, let's hope fewer of them are armed.)

    Parent

    What's interesting about SUSA (none / 0) (#41)
    by BackFromOhio on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 05:58:35 PM EST
    is the polls adds up to 100%
    51% - Obama
    44% - McCain
     4% - Undecided
     2% - Other
    So, even if all 4% undecided votes go to McCain, Obama should win, provided that very long lines expected don't discourage too many voters from voting.  

    Parent
    Sorry - % add to 101% (none / 0) (#42)
    by BackFromOhio on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 05:59:01 PM EST
    on SUSA PA poll

    Parent
    Tightening? Uh, No | 42 comments (42 topical)

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