The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party is being held in Jacksonville, Florida today.

Go Gators!!

This is an Open Thread.

DKos/R2000 has Obama by 7, 51-44. The last two nights of polling have been +8 and +9. I predict that come Tuesday morning, this poll will predict a 9 point Obama win. Ras ticks one point in Obama's direction to a 5 point lead, 51-46. Ras seems headed to predicting a 5 point Obama win come Tuesday. No tracker has McCain closer than 4 (IBD/TIPP has Obama by 4.4, Battleground has Obama by 4) Most have the race closer to 9 ( See Gallup, WaPo and Hotline.)

Here is our fun with Zogby moment of the day - today Zogby's poll show McCain doing better with women (where he trails by 4) than men (where he trails by 6.) Zogby is truly a joke. Even when he is angling for publicity as he is today, he can't tell a plausible story.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Earlier today I wrote about the latest Colorado poll showing Obama still with a big lead over John McCain. A reader asked me if I'm ready to call Colorado for Obama yet.

I thought I was, but now I'm having second thoughts. He was just in Denver and Fort Collins last week, so why are he and Michelle coming back to Colorado tomorrow to do a rally in Pueblo? Pueblo is a Democratic county. Maybe it's just that early voting turnout in Pueblo has not been as high as other places. As of today:[More...]

In Michigan, more than 300 juveniles have been sentenced to life without parole. More than 300 kids thrown away. Michigan should give them a chance to earn their freedom.

Michigan's notorious juvenile lifer law has brought international shame to the state and contradicted common sense, legal traditions and public opinion. ... Bills now before the Senate Judiciary Committee would prohibit life-without-parole sentences for juveniles and give those now serving those sentences a chance at parole after 10 years.

[more ...]

Almost two years ago, TalkLeft began a series of posts addressing the death of Kathryn Johnston, a 92 year old woman who was killed by police officers during a drug raid in Atlanta. The officer who swore to the search warrant application invented an undercover drug buy in the woman's residence that never occurred.

The officers lied to a judge, smashed in Johnston’s door and unloaded 39 shots at the elderly woman as she fired a shot at the invaders with an old revolver. One officer then handcuffed Johnston as she lay dying. Drugs were then planted in her basement.

Two involved officers were convicted of manslaughter in state court and federal civil rights charges. They are awaiting sentencing. A third just entered a guilty plea to a federal charge of conspiring to violate civil rights in exchange for a recommended sentence of about 10 years. That officer is already serving a 4 1/2 year sentence for lying to investigators about the botched raid.

The other day I did a post on the political demography of Ohio and why Obama's performance among non-whites is why he will win there. WaPo's Numbers Blog reaches a similar conclusion using their own polling numbers and relinks to their Ohio analysis from a few months back. Today they write:

Obama currently outpaces recent Democratic nominees among white voters, but his advantage among nonwhite voters is even more dramatic. Overall, nonwhites go for Obama over McCain 80 to 16 percent, with African Americans and Hispanics in particular providing a big boost to the Democrat.

. . . A few months ago, the Post took a look at how a boost in black turnout could benefit Obama, assessing the results using two scenarios, one in which Obama took John F. Kerry's share of the vote among African Americans, and another in which he won 95 percent of black voters. In the clearly more realistic 95 percent scenario, if turnout among non-blacks held steady, Obama would win Ohio without any boost in black turnout and Nevada with a slim 8 percent uptick. . .

Obama leads by 9, 53-44, in the WaPo/ABC tracker.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Rashid Khalidi? Cool sounding name. Shareem Abdur Rahim? Also a cool sounding name. Mahmoud_Abdul-Rauf? Also cool. And Kareem Abdul Jabbar? Also a cool sounding name. Not to mention Nuri Al Maliki.

What do Republicans have against vowels? Say what you want about George Bush, but he seems to not hold any grudges against people with a lot of vowels in their name.

This is an Open Thread.

As TalkLeft noted here, the government dropped charges against Guantanamo detainee Binyam Mohamed. That hasn't stopped the Bush administration from continuing to detain him, but it has raised a judicial eyebrow.

The Justice Department told Judge Emmet Sullivan that it no longer relied upon the claim that Mohamed assisted Jose Padilla in planning the detonation of a "dirty bomb" in the United States -- a charge that was never pursued against Padilla.

At the Thursday hearing, Judge Sullivan asked why, after more than six years, the government had stepped away from its claims about a dirty-bomb plot. “That raises a question as to whether or not the allegations were ever true,” the judge said.

It certainly does. [more ...]

Around the time of our last presidential election, Homeland Security decided that 2,500 foreigners, mostly Muslim, within the nation's boundaries should be viewed as a potential threat to national security. And so they were investigated by Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

The internal reports show that immigration agents questioned the foreigners about what they thought of America, whether violence was preached at their mosques, and whether they had access to biological or chemical weapons.

Some of the foreigners were detained for immigration violations, but there is no evidence that any were charged with a crime against national security. While ICE claims it did not single out foreigners for interrogation based on their race, ethnicity, or religion, nearly four out of five came from Muslim-majority countries. It certainly appears that the government's suspicions were based on religious profiling rather than facts that suggest an actual reason to suspect threatening behavior. [more ...]

This is a very interesting development - the Gallup Expanded and Traditional turnout models have basically converged -the traditional turnout model has Obama by 8 - 51-43 while the expanded model has Obama by 9, 52-43. Obama leads among all registered voters by 11, 52-41.

The door that McCain pollster Bill McCinturff had tried to slide in in selling McCain's chances was the idea that while turnout would be at a record high, the makeup would still resemble that of the 2004 election. Here Gallup seems to be shutting that door as well.

ABC/WaPo has stuck to its traditional voter turnout model and has been producing consistent 8 and 9 point leads for Obama. Now Gallup joins the party. Perhaps my prediction of a 6 point Obama win is too cautious.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Public Policy Polling's final state polls are out. It's looking good for Obama among Independents.

• Colorado: Obama 60-36
• Michigan: Obama 53-40
• Minnesota: Obama 55-37
• New Mexico: Obama 66-28
• Oregon: Obama 53-41

Obama is also getting more Republican votes than John McCain is getting Democrat votes.

To see the actual polls, here's Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico and Oregon.

Public Policy Polling has released new state polls. In Colorado, Obama leads by 17 among those who have already voted and 10 overall:

65% of the folks we surveyed said they had already voted, and among those respondents Obama is winning 58-41. Folks planning to vote on election day support John McCain 50-47, bringing Obama's overall lead down to ten points.

...Two of the main factors driving Obama’s success in the state continue to be his strong standing with independents and Hispanic voters. He is up 60-36 with voters who don’t identify with either party, and he has a 65-33 lead with Hispanics, the fastest growing voter bloc in the state.

In the Senate race, Democrat Mark Udall is now up by 17.

Full Colorado results are here (pdf).