More On Mason Dixon "Tightening"

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 09:51:02 AM EST
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This nonsense bothers me because in fact if you believe Mason Dixon, as NBC is pretending to do, Obama is actually gaining momentum. The race is not tightening according to Mason Dixon. The Obama lead is growing. A few more examples. In Colorado, Mason Dixon's 10/28-9 Colorado poll gives Obama a 5 point lead, 49-44. In its previous 9/29-10/1 Colorado poll, Mason Dixon had the race tied, 44-44. In Missouri, Mason Dixon has the race unchanged from its poll last week, a poll NBC commissioned, McCain by 1. In Ohio, Mason Dixon had McCain leading by 1 last week and now has McCain by 2.

This is not a knock on Mason Dixon - clearly they have seen the race closer than every other pollster all year. Whether that is right or wrong is another issue, but what is clear is that across the board Mason Dixon is showing movement towards OBAMA, not McCain. The Media incompetence on polling remains stunning, though not surprising.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

< Tightening? Uh, No | CNN Poll: Obama 53, McCain 46 >

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More On Mason Dixon "Tightening" | 27 comments (27 topical)

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If Anything (5.00 / 1) (#2)
by zvs888 on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 10:13:33 AM EST

This is a good thing for Obama's voters to get out there and vote. Although I'd prefer the networks and pundits to be smarter about the polling, at least no one seems to assume that this is a cakewalk (even if it is)...

Aren't the "tightening" headlines good? (5.00 / 2) (#3)
by Erehwon on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 10:16:18 AM EST

In the sense that we who couldn't vote early will actually brave the waits on Tuesday and vote? Am I missing something?

I agree from a voter turnout perspective (5.00 / 1) (#5)
by barryluda on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 10:18:14 AM EST

but it's intellectually dishonest (and/or just plain stupid).


News reporting (5.00 / 2) (#6)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 10:20:36 AM EST

should be about facts, not "what is good for turnout."


But as we well know, what NBC does (5.00 / 2) (#7)
by andgarden on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 10:23:20 AM EST

is not "news reporting."


it's theatrical criticism. (none / 0) (#9)
by Salo on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 10:26:30 AM EST

Frank Rich, David Brooks, MoDo etc.

Sometimes the boring inevitability needs a little dramatic spice.


I met a woman last week who (none / 0) (#13)
by oculus on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 10:53:33 AM EST

was really strong on Maureen Dowd as a political pundit. What could I say? I sd.: she's a humorist.


: A glorified gossip Columnist (none / 0) (#15)
by Salo on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 10:59:39 AM EST

most news reporting (none / 0) (#21)
by coigue on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 12:19:38 PM EST

is "what's good for viewership"


NBC is just looking to keep an audience interested (5.00 / 1) (#4)
by barryluda on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 10:17:05 AM EST

I hope they have a very boring, early (and commercially dismal) Tuesday evening.

BTW, whatever is happening in PA, (none / 0) (#1)
by andgarden on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 09:52:49 AM EST

I agree with you about M-D. Their trends do show good news for Obama. If he wins every state they say he's leading in, it's a landslide.

going beyond that... (none / 0) (#8)
by Salo on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 10:24:53 AM EST

...I suspect that we are going to see the next Democratic office holder to be held hostage by the energy industry.The SF coal plant video/audio being circulated by the right is the first salvo in that impending battle.

I strongly suspect that they will repeat the medicine they handed out to Grey Davis.

Hostage from numerous directions (5.00 / 0) (#10)
by Demi Moaned on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 10:46:03 AM EST

I just saw a Newsweek with a cover feature: How a President Obama can govern a center-right country.

It's incredible to me that after an election fought over who is a more credible agent of change, the relentless media narrative seems to be to force Obama to admit that he can't do much different from what has already been done.

FWIW, I do believe that the next President will be constrained by circumstances in lots of ways that Bush wasn't, but in my mind, that makes the need for different approaches all the more urgent.


Wow, I didn't know that Obama might (none / 0) (#12)
by ThatOneVoter on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 10:51:43 AM EST

become President of Austria!
I thought he was running for President of the US, where people are actually almost Socialists if you tally their true beliefs---they only have been brainwashed into thinking otherwise.


: Austria. (none / 0) (#16)
by Salo on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 11:00:16 AM EST

Not center right. 1/3 Fascist.

: I'm with you (none / 0) (#17)
by Demi Moaned on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 11:02:13 AM EST

... but even on the left blogs, I see lots of comments about the US being a center-right country (whatever that means) as though it were an indisputable truth.
My own feeling is that most Americans are very far from being ideologues of any stripe and are willing to consider alternatives pragmatically.

If energy corps (none / 0) (#14)
by Salo on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 10:55:04 AM EST

do what they did to Davis Obama will be under huge pressures. Wonder if he'll crack like a vase or turn into diamond geezer.


Predictions from "This Week" and CNN (none / 0) (#11)
by joanneleon on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 10:47:54 AM EST

I just watched segments on "This Week" and CNN where the guests gave their predictions on the electoral votes, and the Senate/House seats.

On "This Week" all predicted an Obama win and gains in the House and Senate for Democrats:

Stephanopoulos:
Obama 353
Senate +7 plus possible GA runoff
House +28

Mark Halperin:
Obama 349
Senate +7
House +28

Matthew Dowd:
Obama 338
Senate +8
House +7

George Will:
Obama 378
Senate +8
House +21

Donna Brazile:
Obama 343
Senate +8 plus runoff
House +29

On CNN they were not as specific:

Carville:
Obama 357, maybe 365
Senate: +9
House: +27
(says the best debate of the season will be tonight in Minnesota)

Sanchez:
? on electoral votes, still mentioning something about 257 being possible
? on Senate but dems won't get 60
nothing on House
(she really wimped out on predictions and Wolf let her off easily)

Begala:
325 minimum
(says he's being very cautious and doesn't include FL or NC in his number)
Senate: 7-8
House: didn't hear a prediction from him

Castellanos:
318 (Obama gets CO NM NV FL, but not VA NC)
(after this, Carville ups his prediction to 365)
Senate: no specific prediction but says Landrieu is going to lose in LA, I think he said Dems would win retiring Repub seats.
(After this, Carville offers to enter into a bet with Castellanos)

: Don't know Castellanos, (none / 0) (#27)
by BrassTacks on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 10:09:23 PM EST

But I think he's right on VA and NC, wrong on Florida and Landrieu. But that's ok, we don't need those states to win.

Carville is "on point" (none / 0) (#18)
by wurman on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 11:17:59 AM EST

Obama's win will generate coat-tails for the house & senate races. The 50-state GOTV ground game is really set to prevail.

Astute GOP observors, who are mostly muzzled, can see a blow-out for sure & actually fear a total landslide for Obama & the Democratic Party. It's easy to see the not-subtle shift of self-styled conservatives away from the entire Republican ticket, nationwide. What a bunch of CYA commentaries in the last week. Neener!

The lame stream media is goofing & spoofing on the presidential horse race when a shift to the senate races could keep their audiences engrossed all night waiting for the outcome of the senate races in MN, NM, CO, OR, & AK.

Maybe Somerby should call the news executives & explain how they could change their narrative from the "Village" point of view to some actually interesting reporting. Control of the senate & the 8, 9, or 10 horse races that will develop that story would seem to be a great night of real drama--but not to the poobahs of TV.

The only tightening going on here is Sen. Obama's hold on the lead.

: what shocks me about teh Conservatives (none / 0) (#19)
by Salo on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 11:23:23 AM EST

in the press is that they are reacting to impending defeat in such a cowardly manner.
It's not like they have to take a literal bullet for McCain.
Frum and that are just cowardly blowhard scum and they are even less loyal to principle than I could ever imagine.

Palin is the symptom (none / 0) (#22)
by rdandrea on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 02:28:18 PM EST

Not the disease.

So true by you & (none / 0) (#24)
by wurman on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 04:13:08 PM EST

it's equally funny that Gov. Palin & Joe the Plumber are both trying to join the GOP "State of total failure" & hang on for 2012. It appears as if the symptoms actually want to assimilate & replicate the disease. "We are borg."

Go figure---jackals, hyenas, & vultures are more honorable than the sons & daughters of St. Ronald the RayGun. "Thou shalt not speak ill of another Republican . . ." unless, of course, he or she stands between you & cashing in on an elective office. Yargh.


: At this rate, Simon Cowell (none / 0) (#25)
by ThatOneVoter on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 05:27:26 PM EST

should be called in to choose the next GOP nominee.

What is special about these Mason Dixon Polls? (none / 0) (#23)
by samtaylor2 on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 02:49:58 PM EST

: To be fair (none / 0) (#26)
by JThomas on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 05:33:54 PM EST

I saw Chuck Todd go thru the Mason Dixon results this afternoon and he pointed out in each case how the spread for Obama had actually widened. Yet they kept the crawl on saying how poll indicates 8 battleground states are tossups.
I hope it motivates voters to get out, too close for comfort. Every vote possible,please.

: M-D and Battleground were the most accurate (none / 0) (#28)
by BrassTacks on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 10:12:00 PM EST

In the past.