Bump and Update: Ali Hamza al Bahlul has been found guilty at his Guantanamo Military Commissions trial.The ACLU says (statement to be available here shortly):

“The conviction of Al Bahlul is yet another example of a military commission system set up to produce convictions, not to deliver real justice. Unfortunately, because the system is fundamentally flawed and lacks any semblance of due process, a cloud of illegitimacy hangs over this verdict. The world deserves better than that from America. The next president should close Guantánamo and future prosecutions should occur in criminal or military courts where the Constitution still means something and where verdicts, no matter what they are, can be trusted.” ...The ACLU calls on the next president to close Guantánamo, ban torture and end extraordinary rendition.

Original Post:

McCain vs. Obama on Gitmo Trials

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The landslide tomorrow will be a DEMOCRATIC landslide, not a post partisan unity schtick landslide. Congressional Dems will win bigger than Obama. So says Gallup:

Gallup's final pre-election allocated estimate of the national 2008 vote for Congress -- from Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted Oct. 31-Nov. 2 -- gives the Democrats a 12 percentage-point lead over the Republicans among likely voters, 53% to 41%. . . . In 2006, Gallup found the Democrats with an 11-point lead among registered voters, and a 7-point lead among likely voters, right before the election. The Democrats won 54.1% of all votes cast nationally for Congress, and a 31-seat advantage. On that basis alone, their current 12-point generic ballot lead could result in a higher share of the two-party vote than they had in 2006.

This is what a fair, honest and reasonable observer would call a mandate for Democratic progressive change.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Quinnipiac released its final big swing state poll this morning. Obama is ahead in Ohio and PA. Florida is too close to call.

"Sen. Obama appears headed for the best showing of any Democratic candidate among white voters in a generation, going back at least to Jimmy Carter in 1976 and perhaps even to Lyndon Johnson in 1964," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Obama leads by 10 in PA and 7 in Ohio. He's up 2 in FL, within the margin of error. As for McCain's last stand in PA:

"In the end, Sen. John McCain's troops in Central Pennsylvania, led by veterans, disaffected Sen. Hillary Clinton supporters and God and gun clingers, will be swept over by a wave of young black and urban new voters, giving Sen. Barack Obama the Keystone State," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

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Via Atrios, check out this list of 2008 electoral moments. If it were put to music, I hear Billy Joel and We Didn't Start the Fire.

This is an open thread.

One day to go. In January, the polling for the New Hampshire primary had Obama leading by an average of 8.3 points. Sounds scary right? Let's look at those numbers - Obama was predicted to get 38%, Clinton 30%, Edwards 18%, Richardson 6% and 8% undecided. The results? Obama got 37%, Edwards got 17%, Richardson got 5%. So far so good for the polls. But Clinton got 39%. She got the undecided voters.

What does this tell us about tomorrow? It tells me Obama is definitely going to win the popular vote. Why? Because even if McCain were to get every undecided voter (which he is not), Obama is over 50 in almost every poll. USA Today/Gallup has Obama at 53. ABC/WaPo has Obama at 53. NBC/WSJ has Obama at 51. Ras has Obama at 51. CNN has Obama at 53. Pew has Obama at 52. CBS has Obama at 54.

I stick by my prediction -- Obama by 6, 52.5 - 46.5. I predict he wins FL, OH, VA, CO, NV, NM and of course PA. I predict 325+ EVs. I predict 8 Senate pickups (AK, CO, NM, NH, VA, NC, MN and OR) and a runoff in GA. I predict Dem Gary Trauner wins Dick Cheney's old Congressional seat in Wyoming.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Besides the Presidential race, the races I will be most interested in are (1) Jim Martin's attempt to unseat the execrable Saxby Chambliss in the Georgia Senate race, where Chambliss has a narrow lead. Winning this one would be sweet. It is probably heading for a runoff as the winner must clear 50% in Georgia. (2) Al Franken's bid to win the Minnesota Senate seat once held by the late Paul Wellstone from Norm Coleman. It's tight, with a strong 3rd Party challenger as well.(3) Gary Trauner's bid to capture the Wyoming House seat once held by Dick Cheney. It's a close race. (4) Darcy Burner's bid to defeat Dave Reichert in WA-08. Burner did not run the campaign I would have recommended (too soft on Reichert imo) but she would be a great addition in the House. (5) Joe Garcia's bid to defeat one of the Diaz Balart brothers in Miami. Joe is a good guy and funny to boot.

What races will you be following?

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Jeralyn continues to beat the drum to blame the expected Republican landslide loss in this election on Sarah Palin. This is both wrong and wrongheaded.

First why it is wrong. The polls tell the tale. Too often people like to look at favorable and unfavorables as stand alone from the top line numbers. The reverse is true imo. Favorables follow the toplines. It is not the other way around. And the topline numbers simply disprove Jeralyn's thesis. On September 3, the night of Sarah Palin's acceptance speech, Obama led McCain by 5.8%. On September 11, McCain led by 2.5%. We all know what happened on September 15. On that day, McCain led by 2%. One week later, Obama had regained the lead. By the end of the month, Obama led by 5. By October 15, Obama led by 8. And very little has changed since then. More . . .

The final USA Today/Gallup Poll is out. Obama is ahead of McCain by 11 points -- 53% to 42%. This is interesting:

Obama's favorable rating is 62% -- the highest that any presidential candidate has registered in Gallup's final pre-election polls going back to 1992.

USA Today's Washington bureau chief, Susan Page writes: [More...]

I don't think there's any doubt that if, as virtually universally anticipated, McCain loses the presidential election on Tuesday, it's because of two things: the economy and his choice of Sarah Palin as his vice-presidential candidate.

Columnist Earl Ofari Hutchinson puts them in perspective, by asking, what if McCain had picked Mitt Romney as his running mate. I've wondered the same thing but he says it much better and more succinctly than I would, so read it and see if you don't find yourself nodding along in agreement with his logic. I sure did. [More...]

The San Francisco Chronicle examines the changing electoral map. Highlights:

In the RealClearPolitics' average of polls today, Obama was ahead, at least slightly, in most swing states: Colorado (5.5 percentage points), New Mexico (7.3), Nevada (5.8), Virginia (3.8), Pennsylvania (7), Florida (4.2), Ohio (4.2) and North Carolina (0.3). McCain had edges in Arizona (3.5 points), Georgia (3), Montana (3.8), Missouri (0.7) and Indiana (0.5).

Early voting indicators are problematic for McCain:

In North Carolina, 2.6 million people have already voted, with Democrats outpacing Republicans 51 percent to 31 percent, according to state figures. In Colorado, where more than half of the vote may come in before election day, a recent Associated Press poll showed Obama leading 57 percent to 34 percent among early voters.

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Bruce Springsteen dedicated "Working on A Dream" today to Sen. Barack Obama in Cleveland.

Here's the video of Bruce introducing Obama, Michelle and their daughters and Obama thanking Bruce and introducing Patti and the Springsteens' three sons. Here's another video with part of The Promised Land.

Obama's speech can be viewed in its entirety at WKYC Cleveland. Part 1 is here, follow the links for parts 2 to 4.

Timroff at Daily Kos has pictures and a recap of the event.

CNN has released more results from its poll today. The initial results (pdf)have Obama ahead by 8 points among likely voters and 11 points among registered voters.

The additional poll results (pdf) released at 8pm ET include answers to this question:

Please tell me whether you agree or disagree that each of the following candidates has the personality and leadership qualities a President should have.

The results for Sarah Palin:

Likely Voters:
Agree has qualities: 37%
Disagree has qualities: 63%
No opinion: 1%

Registered Voters:
Agree has qualities: 40%
Disagree has qualities: 57%
No opinion: 2%

That's an average of 60% who think she lacks the necesary leadership qualities . [More...]