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Obama's Victory Speech Live Blog

We will live blog President Elect Barack Obama's victory speech.

The live blog is below the fold so it can be bigger. You can comment below as usual or send us messages.

Update: Transcript of Obama's speech is here.

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President Barack Obama

Update 11:21 pm: McCain gives concession speech.

1100 pm: CNN, NBC and ABC News: Obama wins. He's over 270.

Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States.

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Obama, Udall Win Colorado

Update: Goodbye Marilyn Musgrave. Colorado went blue big time and Musgrave, one of the most conservative members of Congress got replaced by Democrat Betsy Markey. Five of our seven representatives in Congress and both our Senators are now Democrats. McCain/Palin didn't even win big Republican counties like Jefferson, Arapahoe and Larimer. That's really something.

Bump and Update 10:45 pm ET: The Denver Post also calls Colorado for Obama and Udall. Add 9 to Obama's CNN total, all he needs now is California. The "personhood" amendment is dead.

9:42 pm ET: The Rocky Mountain News reports Barack Obama has won Colorado. Rep. Mark Udall will be our next Senator. Hooray!

Obama won conservative Jefferson and Arapahoe counties by 10 points. He beat McCain in Denver by 4 to 1. [More...]

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Final Prediction Thread

What time will John McCain concede?

What will the final electoral vote count be?

What will the voter turnout be?

Tie breaker:

What will the Popular vote be?

Up to 5 winners will get a TalkLeft 4th Amendment Tote. My prediction yesterday: Obama either wins 383 to 155 or 356 to 182

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Should the Networks Call the Election Before the Polls Close?

The New York Times reports that CBS and Slate may call the election before the polls close around the country. I hope they do.

I think it will be an early night and the outcome will be known as soon as Ohio, PA, Florida, Indiana and Virginia are projected. CBS says:

"We can’t be in this position of hiding our heads in the sand when the story is obvious.”

Similarly, the editor of the Web site Slate, David Plotz, said in an e-mail message that “if Obama is winning heavily,” he could see calling the race “sometime between 8 and 9.”

“Our readers are not stupid, and we shouldn’t engage in a weird Kabuki drama that pretends McCain could win California and thus the presidency,” Mr. Plotz wrote. “We will call it when a sensible person — not a TV news anchor who has to engage in a silly pretense about West Coast voters — would call it.”

Why drag it out? Let's begin the celebration early.

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Karl Rove's Prediction: Obama 338, McCain 200

Via the LA Times, Karl Rove has released his final electoral map predictions.

The final Rove & Co. electoral map (pdf)of the 2008 election cycle points to a 338-200 Barack Obama electoral vote victory over John McCain tomorrow.

All remaining toss-up states have been allocated to the candidate leading in them, with Florida (27 EV) going to Obama, and Indiana (11 EV), Missouri (11 EV), North Carolina (15 EV), and North Dakota (3 EV) going to McCain. The two candidates are in a dead heat in Missouri and North Carolina, but they go to McCain because the most recent polls conducted over this past weekend show him narrowly ahead. Florida, too, could end up in McCain’s column since he’s benefited from recent movement in the state.

Rove's predictions are only 1 EV different than Democratic strategist William Arnone's which I wrote about here.

It will be an early election night if Obama takes PA, FL and Ohio. Does anyone forsee any surprises? I think Obama has a decent shot at North Carolina and a chance at Indiana. I won't be surprised if he tops 350 electoral votes. But I'll gladly take 338 or 339.

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A Prediction Report: Obama 339 Electoral Votes, McCain 199

William Arnone, author of previous reports on the key states in the primaries and the electoral vote, has prepared his final assessment of who is likely to carry each state in Tuesday's Presidential election. I am publishing the report with his permission.

His summary:

The final assessment shows that the Democratic ticket of Senator Barack Obama of Illinois and Senator Joe Biden of Delaware will win 27 states (including the District of Columbia) and part of one state (Nebraska) with 339 electoral votes.

The Republican Presidential ticket of Senator John McCain of Arizona and Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska will win 23 states and parts of one state (Nebraska) with 199 electoral votes. The number of electoral votes needed to win is 270.

More...

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Obama's Jewish Support

Sen. Barack Obama has received the endorsement of three leading Jewish newspapers:

Here's a very moving video by Israelis who support Obama.

More...

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Qunnipiac: Obama Leads in Ohio, PA

Quinnipiac released its final big swing state poll this morning. Obama is ahead in Ohio and PA. Florida is too close to call.

"Sen. Obama appears headed for the best showing of any Democratic candidate among white voters in a generation, going back at least to Jimmy Carter in 1976 and perhaps even to Lyndon Johnson in 1964," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Obama leads by 10 in PA and 7 in Ohio. He's up 2 in FL, within the margin of error. As for McCain's last stand in PA:

"In the end, Sen. John McCain's troops in Central Pennsylvania, led by veterans, disaffected Sen. Hillary Clinton supporters and God and gun clingers, will be swept over by a wave of young black and urban new voters, giving Sen. Barack Obama the Keystone State," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

[More...]

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Final PPP State Polls: Obama Leading Big Among Independents

Public Policy Polling's final state polls are out. It's looking good for Obama among Independents.

  • Colorado: Obama 60-36
  • Michigan: Obama 53-40
  • Minnesota: Obama 55-37
  • New Mexico: Obama 66-28
  • Oregon: Obama 53-41

Obama is also getting more Republican votes than John McCain is getting Democrat votes.

To see the actual polls, here's Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico and Oregon.

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PPP CO Poll: Obama Up By 10

Public Policy Polling has released new state polls. In Colorado, Obama leads by 17 among those who have already voted and 10 overall:

65% of the folks we surveyed said they had already voted, and among those respondents Obama is winning 58-41. Folks planning to vote on election day support John McCain 50-47, bringing Obama's overall lead down to ten points.

...Two of the main factors driving Obama’s success in the state continue to be his strong standing with independents and Hispanic voters. He is up 60-36 with voters who don’t identify with either party, and he has a 65-33 lead with Hispanics, the fastest growing voter bloc in the state.

In the Senate race, Democrat Mark Udall is now up by 17.

Full Colorado results are here (pdf).

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AP-GfK Battleground State Poll:

A new AP-GfK poll in 8 battleground states has Obama ahead or tied in all of them, including four states that Bush won in 2004.

The states are: Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

The polling shows Obama leading in Ohio (7 percentage points), Nevada (12 points), Colorado (9) and Virginia (7), all red states won by Bush that collectively offer 47 electoral votes. Sweeping those four — or putting together the right combination of two or three — would almost certainly make Obama president.

Obama is winning by double-digits in PA and NH. Ohio has 20 electoral votes, PA has 21 and FL has 27. Nevada has 5, Colorado 9, NC 15 and Virginia 13.

On issues, Obama leads on almost every one from the economy to health care. He pulls even with McCain or leads on national security.[More...]

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AZ Poll: Obama Within 2 of McCain

A new Arizona poll finds John McCain's lead over Obama reduced to 2 points -- a statistical tie.

The same poll last month had McCain up by 7.

Today's LA Times/Bloomberg poll has Obama ahead in both Ohio and Florida.

The Washington Post reports McCain will focus on the economy in the coming week rather than national secuirty.

Does anyone care anymore what he focuses on?

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McCain Says He Won't "Coddle Criminals"

Via Sentencing Law and Policy where law prof Doug Berman provides his own thoughts, Sen. John McCain has an op-ed today in the National Law Journal outlining his views of criminal justice and the role of judges.

Terrorists are not the only threat to public safety. Lax enforcement policies, judges who legislate from the bench and lack of support for law enforcement personnel all continue to force our innocent citizens behind the barred windows of their homes and allow criminals to roam free.

And now drugs are bringing waves of crime and organized gang activity to rural areas thought to be nearly immune from such problems. The federal government must both support state and local law enforcement and effectively enforce federal laws designed to root out violent crime, organized gangs and other interstate criminal activity.

[More...]

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Obama Makes Gains in Virginia

The latest Washington Post Virginia poll has Barack Obama up by 8.

As an example of the gains he has made since [the last] poll, Obama is now tied with McCain among college-educated white men, overcoming what had been an almost 30-point deficit for the Democrat.

...Part of Obama's late advantage can be traced to widespread voter unease about the economy, record low approval ratings for President Bush and a growing number of voters who have strongly negative perceptions of GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin.

It appears Obama is unstoppable at this point -- so long as all his supporters remember to vote.

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