Ohio's polls close in 30 minutes. Big Tent Democrat and I will be live-blogging the results and other election news coverage. We'll start when the polls close.

You can comment same as always in the comment section below. You also can send us live messages through the software. Only comments you post below will appear on the site.

I'll be putting up some polls up. Big Tent's posts will say BTD and mine will be TL.

The live blog stays below the fold so that it can be a bit wider than the front page allows. Just click on the "There's More" button or bookmark the permalink to go directly to it.

If comments hit 200, we'll start a new one.

CNN's Ohio exit polls:

Hillary is getting voters without college degrees. College educated voters are going to Obama. That's all they reported so far.

CNN's Ohio results page is here.
MSNBC's Ohio results page is here.

Update: Looks like the 3 am ad worked, Texas voters said Hillary is more able to keep our country secure according to CNN.

Big Tent has a first exit poll thread about the Independent vote here.

CNN now has this:

Hillary Clinton holds a two-to-one advantage over Barack Obama with Hispanic voters in Texas, while blacks are overwhelmingly supporting him in Tuesday’s Democratic presidential primary, according to CNN’s exit poll.

These early surveys provide a snapshot of the race, but are not conclusive on who will win this critical contest. Eighty three percent of blacks voted for Obama, while 16 percent supported Clinton, according to the exit poll. Meanwhile, 64 percent of Hispanics backed Clinton, while 32 percent went for Obama.

Update [2008-3-4 18:27:40 by Big Tent Democrat]: Conflicting exit polls -Marc Ambinder sez Clinton with "slim leads" in Ohio and Texas. NRO has two conflicting exits (meaning? trust neither?) - one has Obama winning both by 2, the other with Clinton up 2 in Ohio and tied in Texas.

By Big Tent Democrat

Via Mark Halperin:

The primaries in Ohio, Texas and Vermont were open to all voters, while in Rhode Island registered independents could choose which party's primary to vote in. In the Democratic primaries, independents were about one in five voters in Ohio, one in four in Texas, a third in Rhode Island and four in 10 in Vermont.

Somewhat higher than SUSA projected in Ohio and Texas. Seemingly advantage Obama. Though I must add that I think the reporting of "Independents" probably includes Republicans which puts it in line with SUSA's finding. Probably not advantage Obama.

I'm going to take a break here for a spell.

We're a few hours from exit polls and results.

How are you feeling about the candidates' chances? Have you changed your predictions since this morning?

What's making you most nervous?

I'll also put up a Media Horse's A*s thread around 7pm ET for you to rant about your least favorite anchors and pundits.

See you soon and yes, we'll be covering the results through the evening. I hope you'll join us. Those threads will open with all election-related comments welcome.

Bump and Update: The Texas Democratic Party sent out this directive (pdf)to both campaigns this afternoon cautioning against what I reported below. So they obviously heard it too, although the letter went to both campaigns, not just Obama's.

Campaign workers, volunteers and/or supporters have obtained copies of blank sign-in sheets for precinct conventions and are having them filed in now with the desire of turning them in once the convention gets underway. These sign-in sheets are invalid and will not be considered in determining the allocation of delegates. See Tex. Dem. Pty. Rule. IV(B)(6).

Update: The Austin Statesman is now reporting on the alleged violations, without specifying which campaign is complaining or allegedly violating the rules.

***

I'm receiving reports that contrary to Texas Democratic party caucus rules that preclude registration forms from being submitted before either 7:15 pm or the last vote at a precinct has been cast, Obama volunteers are handing out the forms at precincts today and asking people to fill them in and then collecting them. For Obama to submit the forms on the voters' behalf without the voter physically being present at the caucus would violate the rules.

The rules state:

More...

Flooding is such a problem in Southern Ohio that at the request of the Secretary of State, the courts have issued orders allowing voters to cast provisional ballots at their county board of elections. Here is the order for Perry County (pdf)and here is the one for Adams County. (pdf)

Buckeye State Blog is tracking the orders. I agree that this could result in lower voter turnout which would hurt Hillary who is favored in Southeast Ohio. (Bill Clinton carried these counties in the 1992 and 1996 general election, which resulted in his winning Ohio, while Gore and Kerry did not and lost Ohio in the general election.

Obama could be adversely affected by such an order in Athens county, home to Ohio University and it's tens of thousands of students.

Hopefully the candidates' ground operations are prepared for this and have volunteers with vehicles to get people to the polls.

The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports lots of Republicans are voting in the Democratic primary.

By Big Tent Democrat

Scott Lemieux writes:

[U]nder different rules Obama might have campaigned in a way that would have maximized his vote rather than delegate count. You can't assume that a small vote advantage would have held up under a different set of rules, and under the rules we have whoever wins the delegates wins the state, period.

As Lemieux tells it, the current system is not designed to pick the nominee who gets the most votes from actual voters. And I agree. But frankly, I do not understand what Lemieux means when he infers that delegate maximization is not connected to voter maximization. Sure the way the delegates are alloted dilutes the will of the voters. But that does not mean the candidates could do anything to address that fact in their campaigns. At least not in a primary. The horribly flawed Texas system that grants some voters more say than others is not a feature of the system, it is a horrible flaw and there is nothing either candidate could do to adjust to that.

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only.

I am hesitant about raising this because, in my view, Senator Clinton needs to win the popular vote in both Ohio and Texas to have a reasonably legitimate narrative for winning the nomination - to wit, Obama has not won any contested big states key to the general election. And I do not think she will win both. But I proceed intrepidly.

Everywhere you go that is pro-Obama, places like NBC and TPM, you hear about the delegate math. Clinton trails Obama by some 160-odd pledged delegates and she will have to win around 65% of the remaining pledged delegates to retake the pledged delegate lead. Of course this accepts the Obama camp's spin that the pledged delegate result is the final word on who the nominee is. And that is simply not true. There are 700+ Super delegates who will decide who the nominee is. That is just plain fact. Neither candidate will reach the 2025 mark. But it also ignores two big pieces of the puzzle. Florida and Michigan. Under the current results, the now excluded Michigan and Florida delegation would give a net gain for Clinton of 76 pledged delegates. But of course this is not going to happen that way. But a revote could happen if Clinton wins both Texas and Ohio tonight. Why? Because it would likely be to the advantage of the Democrats, the DNC, Clinton AND Obama if Clinton sweeps Texas and Ohio tonight. I'll explain why on the flip.

As we're waiting for news of today's election, here's a first-hand account I received from a Texas voter. All of you who voted today are welcome to post your stories in the comments:

Just wanted to write in and let you know what's going on here today in Houston. (FYI, I'm white, male, in my 30's, and support Clinton)

I went to vote this morning in the Meyerland/Bellaire area of Houston. (The area has a real mix of people - different ages, races - and is very much a middle to middle-upper income.) When I left, I was stopped and asked to participate in an exit poll survey sponsored by all of the networks and major papers. This is the first time I've ever been asked to do this.

As I entered my polling place wearing a Clinton button, Obama's supporters (about 6 of them) literally gave me dirty looks and turned their back on me. Other voters were greated with hellos, good mornings, and hope you'll vote for Obama. The attitude of Obama's campaigners to me was rather nasty. It was a real turn-off to me, and if he's the nominee, I'll really have to think twice about voting in the general election.

Other information: At my polling place there were TONS of Obama signs all over the place, not a single Clinton sign. As I mentioned, about 6 Obama people outside, not a single Clinton person. Inside the polling place, it looked like 2 of the 10 or so machines were off-line (a tech was there working on them), but there was no wait. (A precinct judge said it was very busy at 7am).

More...

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only.

Some Left blogs have discovered a concern about using Republican talking points against our Democratic candidates for President. For example, Chris Bowers writes:

Still, I find stuff like [Clinton's experience] quote repugnant, and it strikes me as a bad strategic move regardless of who wins the primary. McCain is very dangerous and building him up as experienced, with the implication that he's ready to lead our military, is, shall we say, a bad thing.

I agree. Though I think the notion that McCain will not be viewed as experienced is rather ridiculous. Still, no Dem should help with that. That said, I do not recall Chris or any other blogger agreeing with my denunciation last October of John Edwards, Chris Dodd and Barack Obama for their attacks on Hillary Clinton's character and honesty. For example, last October the Barack Obama campaign launched an all out assault on Hillary Clinton's honesty that continues to this day:

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only.

I like to laugh at John Zogby and the outfits that cite him as a serious pollster. And this post is no different. So in his final polls Zogby has Clinton up 47-44 in Texas, a 3 point rise for Clinton and a 3 point drop for Obama. In Ohio, Zogby has a tie, which reflects a 3 point drop for Obama. So, according to Zogby, the last minute trend is all Clinton. I would be worried if I was in the Clinton camp.

Talk about anything related to the campaign, not just polls. Today should be an exciting day.