Texas Exit Polls

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:03:15 PM EST
Tags: Texas '08 (all tags)

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Update: Looks like the 3 am ad worked, Texas voters said Hillary is more able to keep our country secure according to CNN.

Big Tent has a first exit poll thread about the Independent vote here.

CNN now has this:

Hillary Clinton holds a two-to-one advantage over Barack Obama with Hispanic voters in Texas, while blacks are overwhelmingly supporting him in Tuesday’s Democratic presidential primary, according to CNN’s exit poll.

These early surveys provide a snapshot of the race, but are not conclusive on who will win this critical contest. Eighty three percent of blacks voted for Obama, while 16 percent supported Clinton, according to the exit poll. Meanwhile, 64 percent of Hispanics backed Clinton, while 32 percent went for Obama.

Update [2008-3-4 18:27:40 by Big Tent Democrat]: Conflicting exit polls -Marc Ambinder sez Clinton with "slim leads" in Ohio and Texas. NRO has two conflicting exits (meaning? trust neither?) - one has Obama winning both by 2, the other with Clinton up 2 in Ohio and tied in Texas.

< Who's the Biggest Media Horse's As*s? | Ohio Exit Polls >

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Texas Exit Polls | 84 comments (84 topical)

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CBS exit polls (5.00 / 2) (#17)
by americanincanada on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:32:14 PM EST

32 percent of Texas primary voters are Hispanic -- up from the 24 percent in 2004.

In Ohio, 20 percent are African American, up from 14 percent in 2004.

Eighteen percent of Texas primary voters today are black, down from 21 percent in 2004.

Are those online yet? (5.00 / 1) (#19)
by Shawn on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:33:29 PM EST

n/t

[ Parent ]

: Online at Talking Points and Kos (none / 0) (#83)
by 1jane on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:38:51 PM EST

Texas, with one % reporting Obama 58% and Clinton 41% giving Obama a 17 pt early lead in very very early returns.

[ Parent ]

CBS again (5.00 / 1) (#31)
by americanincanada on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:43:42 PM EST

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bob Schieffer reports as of now, in Texas, Hispanic American vote is up huge and African American vote is down from 2004.

[ Parent ]

It seems to me (5.00 / 1) (#33)
by Steve M on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:45:32 PM EST

Even though the percentage of black voters may be down from 2004, I'd be very surprised if black turnout is down. It's more likely that turnout is way up across the board, but black voters already had good turnout in 2004 and thus have less room to improve.

[ Parent ]

: Oh sure (none / 0) (#37)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:47:08 PM EST

That's what I understood.

[ Parent ]

Down? (none / 0) (#34)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:45:36 PM EST

Wow!

[ Parent ]

: Keep in mind that they may just (5.00 / 1) (#38)
by Cream City on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:47:22 PM EST

be more likely to vote later (working-class voters).

[ Parent ]
: law of numbers (none / 0) (#44)
by joei on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:48:49 PM EST

when u have a minority pop. of 10%, even twice the usual numbers will be only 10% more for the rest of the pop.

[ Parent ]

skip the long dashes in your comment (none / 0) (#41)
by Jeralyn on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:48:11 PM EST

they'll skew the site, thanks.

[ Parent ]

32% (none / 0) (#18)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:33:14 PM EST

That's big. Belo then predicts a comforable clinton win.

[ Parent ]

32%?! (5.00 / 1) (#32)
by Steve M on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:44:26 PM EST

What will Michelle Malkin say?

Remember, though, it's only Obama who inspires people to come to the polls.

[ Parent ]

Link (none / 0) (#21)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:35:01 PM EST

Belo sez 32% translates into 4 point clinton win in Texas.

[ Parent ]

Thank you for pouring over all those (5.00 / 1) (#29)
by Militarytracy on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:41:29 PM EST

graphs so I don't have to. Long day.....graphs promise a headache.

[ Parent ]

: It is further down (5.00 / 2) (#30)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:42:25 PM EST

Trust me.
Actually it is a 4 point win IF it is 30%. 32% makes it 5.

[ Parent ]

And I thought you were perfect BTD. (none / 0) (#22)
by Teresa on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:36:21 PM EST

Link?

[ Parent ]

: Link (5.00 / 1) (#25)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:38:33 PM EST

Belo.

[ Parent ]

It's below their proportion (none / 0) (#45)
by Cream City on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:49:59 PM EST

of the population in TX, though -- more than 35%. So those polls that used models based on previously lower turnout may be okay. But some predicated their polls more on population. And some polls did so similar with AAs, of course. So the question again will be answered by which polls had the best models and methodology. Do you recall which ones estimated these turnouts?

[ Parent ]

: this can't possibly include (none / 0) (#82)
by Kathy on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:13:00 PM EST

early voting, which they can't exit poll. Obama did a huge push for early voting.
Maybe I just don't want to believe the turnout was that low.
Though, on the other side of that coin, that's fabulous news about the Hispanic turnout. Political involvement is key for getting their voices heard. The nation is watching these exit polls.

[ Parent ]

I was checking census data earlier today and (none / 0) (#23)
by Angel on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:36:27 PM EST

saw that the 2006 numbers are 12% Black and 34% Hispanic for Texas, with 4% Asian and remainder White or Other.

[ Parent ]

But Latinos (none / 0) (#24)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:37:28 PM EST

have been around 24% of the electorate.

[ Parent ]

If this holds then Clinton should win it. (none / 0) (#26)
by Angel on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:39:17 PM EST

[ Parent ]

I think so (none / 0) (#27)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:40:32 PM EST

Especially as the exits have her winning Latinos 2-1.

[ Parent ]

This may explain why Republicans (none / 0) (#39)
by oculus on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:47:25 PM EST

favor building that fence.

[ Parent ]

Excuse me, but the voters are legal. Were you (none / 0) (#46)
by Angel on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:51:09 PM EST

trying to make a joke? If so, not funny.

[ Parent ]

: I was joking, but I do think, and I live in (none / 0) (#64)
by oculus on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:57:54 PM EST

Southern Cal., many Latinos who once lived in Mexico or further South, now live in the U.S. Their children, whom I tutor, are U.S. citizens and many are reaching voting age.

[ Parent ]

that's a slight advantage to Obama, right? (none / 0) (#36)
by A DC Wonk on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:46:37 PM EST

Or am I doing something wrong:

.18*.16 + .32*.64 = .234 for HRC
.18*.83 + .32*.32 = .252 for Obama

[ Parent ]

DC wonk... (none / 0) (#70)
by p lukasiak on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:00:02 PM EST

your percentages are right.

But SUSA has white voters going 53-41 for Clinton...

my big question is whether the exit polling data will include only voters who went to the polls today, or if it will include early voter data.

[ Parent ]

SurveyUSA had (none / 0) (#71)
by MKS on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:01:41 PM EST

Hillary winning the overall white vote by 4% in the last poll....So, using your calculation (which seems correct given the data above) that would mean a 4 point Hillary win in Texas...

Here are other exit polling data from MyDD. They show Obama up 51-49 in Texas and Ohio, and a tie in RI at 49....

[ Parent ]

Exits at Huffpo (none / 0) (#72)
by MKS on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:06:39 PM EST

Show Obama up 51-49 in Ohio; and 50-49 in Texas; and a tie in RI.

It looks very similar to MyDD (is it the same exit poll with typos?)

[ Parent ]

Sound inoperative from what we are hearing (none / 0) (#74)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:11:14 PM EST

on the demos.

[ Parent ]

Different polls (none / 0) (#75)
by MKS on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:15:29 PM EST

The two sets of data do conflict....With a large Latino turnout in Texas, Hillary should not be behind....something has to give...

[ Parent ]

They could be unweighted (none / 0) (#77)
by Shawn on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:18:51 PM EST

: Good pont; early exit polls always unweighted (none / 0) (#80)
by Cream City on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:03:27 PM EST

and not released, so ought not have been leaked, as useless until weighted by best guess of turnout models -- and then adjusted again and again as actual turnout numbers come in.

[ Parent ]

the texas percentages... (none / 0) (#52)
by p lukasiak on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:53:48 PM EST

are very close to the last SUSA poll, which had it at 32% Hispanic, 17% AA.

SUSA's last Ohio poll had 16% AA, but given her lead there, that shouldn't make a critical difference.

[ Parent ]

Without telling us the who turned out number (none / 0) (#1)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:08:23 PM EST

That is meaningless. Though Hillary is doing better with A-As than expected.

Really? The AA number looks about right to me (none / 0) (#2)
by andgarden on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:11:02 PM EST

+/- 3-4.

[ Parent ]

PPP anbd others (none / 0) (#3)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:14:49 PM EST

had her at 9-10 percent.

[ Parent ]

SUSA say 18% (none / 0) (#10)
by andgarden on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:24:35 PM EST

so, we'll see.

[ Parent ]

: Looks moot now (none / 0) (#43)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:48:42 PM EST

[ Parent ]

OTOH he is doing roughly twice as well (none / 0) (#13)
by JoeA on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:27:58 PM EST

as Clinton amongst Hispanics as she is doing amongst the AA community. If that holds out and their turnout is roughly similar then does that not favour Obama (obviously depending on how the non- AA and Hispanic votes go)?

[ Parent ]

It wopuld but (none / 0) (#28)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:41:17 PM EST

it did not hold. Latino turnout 32%.

[ Parent ]

This again is why the focus on caucuses (none / 0) (#50)
by Cream City on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:52:14 PM EST

for Obama -- to claim more delegates, with a third coming from caucuses, compared to popular vote. Watch for it to be a repeat of his claim of winning Nevada. The question, then, is whether the media will buy it again.

[ Parent ]

But presumably the exits are not going (none / 0) (#53)
by JoeA on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:53:51 PM EST

to accurately pick up the early vote which constitutes 50% in Texas. I wouldn't write Obama off yet.

[ Parent ]

That Belo poll being linked to is not an exit (none / 0) (#65)
by JoeA on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:58:11 PM EST

Its a Tracking NOT an exit poll. poll. As such I dont see how the internals on that are going to more accurately predict the result any more than any other recent polls?

[ Parent ]

: Sorry misunderstoon BTD (none / 0) (#68)
by JoeA on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:59:31 PM EST

ie that you were using the Belo internals to interpret the results from the CBS exit.

[ Parent ]

CBS has this (none / 0) (#59)
by Coldblue on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:56:06 PM EST

Thirty-two percent of Texas Democratic primary voters are Hispanic, according to the early exit polls -- up from the 24 percent in 2004. Eighteen percent are black, down from 21 percent in 2004.


[ Parent ]

: Oops (none / 0) (#63)
by Coldblue on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:57:38 PM EST

already posted below...please delete.

[ Parent ]
: Wonder what explains ... (none / 0) (#66)
by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:58:22 PM EST

the drop in black voters (or even parity considering MOE)?

[ Parent ]

Saw this first on Fox (none / 0) (#4)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:20:45 PM EST

and now Halperin repeats it:

Best to beat the GOP:
Ohio -- Obama 52, Clinton 44
Texas -- Obama 52, Clinton 41
Offers clear and detailed plans:
Ohio -- Clinton 67, Obama 57
Texas -- Clinton 66, Obama 52
Inspires you about the future?
Ohio -- Obama 67, Clinton 57
Texas -- Obama 64, Clinton 57

Now some think this is good for Obama. At least for Ohio, I know that the last Ohio poll (which Clinton led by double digits) showed 72% thought Obama could beat McCain compared to 48 % for Hillary. I think that number is good for Hillary.

If Clinton wins Ohio, explain that GE (none / 0) (#7)
by Teresa on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:23:36 PM EST

poll to me. Her voters vote for her even though they think Obama has a better chance in Nov?

[ Parent ]

: Yep (5.00 / 1) (#16)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:30:16 PM EST

[ Parent ]
: also, GOP voters (none / 0) (#20)
by A DC Wonk on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:34:47 PM EST

some are reporting that, GOP voters are going to HRC, b/c they think she'd be easier for McCain to beat. That, too, would explain some of the GE poll numbers.

[ Parent ]

Is this a misprint? (none / 0) (#35)
by Virginian on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:45:46 PM EST

How do we get 67 to 57 percent splits?

[ Parent ]

not a split (none / 0) (#40)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:48:08 PM EST

: hmmm (none / 0) (#47)
by Virginian on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:51:12 PM EST

so its p q, yes no, not BO or HRC

[ Parent ]

Early voters v. exit polls (none / 0) (#5)
by Oje on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:20:59 PM EST

Are these site-based polls only or phone calls to early voters as well?

The early voters tab by SUSA showed Clinton with the early voter lead. If these do not include early voters, Obama has to be winning (3-5%) in these exit polls it order to have a chance to overtake Clinton.

They say the adjust it (none / 0) (#6)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:21:27 PM EST

but it clearly is less reliable.

[ Parent ]

Than, a tie goes to... (none / 0) (#9)
by Oje on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:24:27 PM EST

the networks, who will keep people (like us) glued to their televisions until 10pm EST tonight.

[ Parent ]

: Oy (none / 0) (#11)
by Oje on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:24:54 PM EST

Then, a tie goes to....

[ Parent ]

Earliest exit polls not adjusted much (none / 0) (#81)
by Cream City on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:06:22 PM EST

and especially if leaked, not ready for release. Then raw results are adjusted to best models for turnout, but those really are off this year. So not until they start to adjust to actual turnout reports do they start to be useful -- thus the delay now, and they may be seeing some unexpected data in turnout that call for further checking first.

[ Parent ]

I think they actually do a phone survey (none / 0) (#8)
by andgarden on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:23:44 PM EST

for that, just like they do for Oregon's vote by mail.

I could be wrong.

[ Parent ]

Apparently the exit polls (none / 0) (#12)
by AF on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:25:42 PM EST

Show photo-finishes in OH and TX. This is from polls leaked to NRO.

Quick Question - Link to Live Feed (none / 0) (#14)
by sar75 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:29:19 PM EST

Hey,

Can someone give me a link to a live feed from CNN, MSNBC, or FOX (Frankly, I wouldn't mind hearing Rove talk about this for kicks...)

Thanks!

Kinda sad (none / 0) (#15)
by dk on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:29:57 PM EST

when we rely in any way on NRO. Just sayin'...

MSNBC seems to be discussing more (none / 0) (#42)
by Teresa on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:48:20 PM EST

of what happens if HC wins than if Obama does. Almost as if they think she's back in the race. I may just have selective hearing though.

But (none / 0) (#48)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:51:57 PM EST

Is Tweety in a good mood or a bad mood?

(I won't watch).

[ Parent ]

I honestly can't tell yet. He isn't giddy at least (none / 0) (#51)
by Teresa on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:53:15 PM EST

I watched early (none / 0) (#54)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:54:02 PM EST

it was entirely dedicated to why won't Hillary get out? Who cares if she wins Ohio and Texas?

[ Parent ]

Ahhh, (none / 0) (#58)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:56:03 PM EST

now that's telling....

[ Parent ]

Great, terrific, what a delight (none / 0) (#62)
by Militarytracy on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:57:22 PM EST

Am I going to have to spend my whole day tomorrow coming up with what MSNBC is an acronym for? I'm so glad I'm not watching because if I was and she wins I would have to waste my whole day tomorrow doing that and for me it wouldn't be a choice.

[ Parent ]

Hmm (5.00 / 1) (#76)
by BrandingIron on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:16:25 PM EST

Manipulate Some News for Barack Channel?

[ Parent ]

: Starting early!!!! (none / 0) (#79)
by Militarytracy on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:29:26 PM EST

You are going to be way ahead

[ Parent ]

John Kerry looks mad. (none / 0) (#49)
by Teresa on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:52:09 PM EST

How can you tell? (5.00 / 1) (#57)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:54:49 PM EST

He's like a block of wood.

[ Parent ]

: But that's hard ... (5.00 / 1) (#60)
by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:56:28 PM EST

New England timber.
;)

[ Parent ]
: Ouch. nt (5.00 / 1) (#61)
by Maria Garcia on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:57:00 PM EST

[ Parent ]
: Isn't that his typical state? (none / 0) (#73)
by Lil on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:10:51 PM EST

[ Parent ]

Really? (none / 0) (#55)
by Militarytracy on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:54:13 PM EST

What's he on right now. I might actually have to go look at this.

[ Parent ]

MSNBC. He's off now. His main point was (5.00 / 1) (#67)
by Teresa on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:58:40 PM EST

how experienced Obama is (has more years in elective office that HC and more foreign policy experience than Bill or GWB had). He was arguing the delegates are what matters, not the vote.

[ Parent ]

: Voters ... (5.00 / 4) (#69)
by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:00:01 PM EST

they're so troublesome.

[ Parent ]

I saw him and agree (none / 0) (#56)
by Cream City on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:54:19 PM EST

and I felt sad about that, until I wondered whether he was made for backing Obama or for not BEING Obama four years ago, had Kerry had a better campaign.

[ Parent ]

: He's just pissed (none / 0) (#78)
by BrandingIron on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:19:31 PM EST

that this election cycle the people are fighting over who is best to best McCain, because technically the way people are looking at it, the Democrats have two very good candidates to do so. Kerry was the Anybody But Bush Candidate. Some of us held our noses and voted fro him.

[ Parent ]

texas exit poll extrapolation (none / 0) (#84)
by p lukasiak on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:15:58 PM EST

Clinton over Obama by 1.4%
49.99% to 48.58%

(based on gender breakdown -- other breakdowns are within the same general range.)

Texas Exit Polls

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