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Hillary's Restraint and Obama's General Election Challenges

Bump and Update: Hillary took off the restraints in PA today:

She made the argument that Sen. Barack Obama's comments could cost the party the election and that the party has been seen as out of touch by male candidates in the past. Clinton also criticized Obama for not "owning up to his remarks."

Original Post:

Don't miss reading John Harris and Jim Vandehei at Politico and their new article positing that far from trying to throw the proverbial kitchen sink at Barack Obama, Hillary has been exercising great restraint.

According to Politico, Hillary believes that Obama cannot win in November. The article says, if Hillary felt free to really speak her mind, here are the points she'd make:

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Al Franken, Fighting Dem?

By Big Tent Democrat

Have I found a candidate to really fight for in this election? Via Kevin Drum, Josh Green writes:

Though his talk of change and building a movement echoes Obama's, Franken's appeal is altogether different. He doesn't seek to unite Republicans and Democrats, as Obama does, but rather to draw sharp contrasts, as Dean did, in a style of chesty confrontation. I watched the speech with a young Navy officer and Iraq veteran named Tim Wellman Jr., who was wearing the military equivalent of a letterman's jacket, embroidered with his dates of service and where he'd deployed, with a couple of Franken stickers slapped on. Though it doesn't get nearly the attention his political activism does, Franken was participating in USO tours long before it was fashionable among Democrats, and has kept it up with trips to Iraq and Afghanistan, despite his opposition to the war (though he did not initially oppose it). I asked Wellman what drew him to Franken. "He brings a clear vision of right and wrong," he said. "He's been very strong about confronting Republicans on their own issues, like strength and war." Other Democrats in the audience said much the same thing.

(Emphasis supplied.) A REAL Dean Democrat? A real Fighting Dem? Then that is the guy for me. Go Al Franken!!

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Newsweek on Obama's Foreign Policy Experience and Obama on Obama

Newsweek spends three online pages discussing Obama's foreign policy experience. Shorter version: Is a multi-cultural upbringing the kind of foreign policy experience that makes one best equipped to be Commander in Chief or President? (More on this here.)

The article focuses on Obama having grown up in Indonesia. Some quotes from the article:

  • Obama says he's more experienced than McCain or Hillary:

[L]ast week Obama signaled that he'd had enough of these attacks. Not only did he not lack experience, Obama cockily told a fund-raising crowd in San Francisco, but "foreign policy is the area where I am probably most confident that I know more and understand the world better than Senator Clinton or Senator McCain."

  • From a neutral Democrat:

Even some Dems who'd favor him in any contest against McCain also worry that Obama is overplaying his experience. "I don't know whether he's drinking his own Kool-Aid," says a former senior member of the Clinton administration who is not backing either Democratic candidate but would talk only on condition of anonymity because of his private-sector job. "I'm all for talking to the Cubans, or to the Iranians. I'm just not sure he's the guy to do it. The biggest administrative job he ever had was collecting articles for the Harvard Law Review."

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Bob Casey: Obama Expressed Regret For Gaffe, Is A "Person Of Faith"

By Big Tent Democrat

On CNN Late Edition, Obama supporter and Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey said that Senator Barack Obama regretted his remarks and that Obama should not be judged solely by those remarks. Casey said that Obama made a poor choice of words, took responsibility for them and expressed his regret for any hurt he had caused.

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Jimmy Carter Won't Endorse Before Convention

Speaking to ABC News this week, former President Jimmy Carter said he will not endorse a candidate before the Denver National Convention:

"The only thing I know is that, I have not made an endorsement, and don't intend to, until the time of the convention."

He also laid out his view of the superdelegates' role:

Carter said he agreed that superdelegates should not overturn the will of the people but that "any superdelegate who wishes to deviate from that opinion should be perfectly free to do so." He went on to warn that "it would be a very serious mistake for the Democratic Party... if a candidate had the majority of popular votes, the majority of delegates and a majority of states -- all three -- were the superdelegates to vote contrary to that, I think it would be very difficult to explain."

In other words, for Carter, it boils down to a trifecta of:

  • majority of popular vote
  • majority of delegates
  • majority of states

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Hillary Wins Nevada County Caucuses

The Clark County democratic convention was held Saturday. It was a do-over from February. Hillary won and she now leads Obama statewide in delegates to the state convention.

More than 6,300 delegates participated Saturday, according to the Nevada Democratic Party. Clinton won 1,330 delegates from Clark County while Obama won 1,133 delegates.

Heading into Saturday, Obama had won the majority of the delegates in the state’s other 15 county conventions, 512 of 900. But Clinton’s win in Clark County, by far the state’s most populous county, gave her the lead statewide 1,718 to 1,645, for delegates to the May 17 state convention in Reno, where Nevada Democrats will select delegates to the national convention in Denver this August.

Nevada has 33 national delegates. As to why Hillary won in the January caucuses, here are the reasons: [More...]

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What McCain Said Compared To What Obama Said

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only

Oliver Willis compares this McCain statement to the Obama Gaffe:

It’s the influx of illegals into places where they’ve never seen a Hispanic influence before,” McCain told me. “You probably see more emotion in Iowa than you do in Arizona on this issue. I was in a town in Iowa, and twenty years ago there were no Hispanics in the town. Then a meatpacking facility was opened up. Now twenty per cent of their population is Hispanic. There were senior citizens there who were–’concerned’ is not the word. They see this as an assault on their culture, what they view as an impact on what have been their traditions in Iowa, in the small towns in Iowa. So you get questions like ‘Why do I have to punch 1 for English?’ ‘Why can’t they speak English?’ It’s become larger than just the fact that we need to enforce our borders.”

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Will John Edwards Weigh in on Obama's Comments?

I can't help wondering what John Edwards thinks about Barack Obama's slam of rural Americans. Hillary increasingly has been adopting Edwards' positions over the past months. She showed it again this morning in Indiana:

Clinton took the stage to John Cougar Mellencamp’s “Small Town,” a song that was used primarily by former presidential candidate John Edwards. Edwards prided himself in being the candidate for working class Americans, often reminding the crowds that he was the son of a mill worker. With Edwards now out of the race, Clinton is hoping to take the reigns. “When my dad grew up, it was a working class family in Scranton,” Clinton told the audience. “I grew up in a churchgoing family, a family that believed in living out and expressing our faith.”

I have to believe his phone is ringing off the hook with calls from reporters today. What would he say?

No one understands swift-boating better than Edwards, given the effect it had on his and John Kerry's 2004 presidential bid. The last thing he wants is a John McCain win in November. [More...]

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Clinton Strategist: Obama Gaffe "Fair Game"

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only

Greg Sargent has a terrific interview with Clinton strategist Geoff Garin that demonstrates that the Clinton campaign will be discussing Obama's gaffe for the foreseeable future:

Hillary chief strategist Geoffrey Garin dramatically raised the stakes in the battle over Barack Obama's comments about small-town America, saying in an interview that they would be "damaging" to him in a general election, could set back the Democratic Party's efforts to reach heartland voters, and should be something that super-delegates consider when deciding whom to support.

Read the whole thing. Good work from Sargent. My own view is that the Clinton campaign is being too aggressive on this story. The Media hates Clinton and loves Obama. They should have let McCain take the lead on this. Clinton should not make herself a big part of this story.

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Live Blogging Today's Clinton Campaign Press Call

I'm on the Hillary Clinton press teleconference call. I'll be live blogging, so check back for updates.

Speakers: Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack and some PA mayors. How it works: There will be a theme announced, various people address it from the campaign and then they open it up to questions from reporters.

Phil Singer: The topic is the comments of Obama in San Francisco.

Gov. Vilsack: He grew up in small town in W. PA. After reading and reviewing Obama's comments, he found them condescending. They undercut his message of hope. Obama suggests they are bitter. PA residents don't want a pat on the head, they want a pat on the back. It's why they have been gravitating to Clinton. The most glaring example is Obama's comments about G-d and guns. Vilsack says guns are a reflection of what we do with our families.

It's hard for a candidate to win in the general election if he has these misunderstandings about people in small towns.

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The "Creative Class," Elitism and Obama's Gaffe

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only

Do you think the "creative class" blogosphere just started watching politics today? Or are they playing ignorant? Ezra Klein writes:

I'm not really sure what the big deal over Obama's comments in SF is supposed to be . . . As far as I can tell, few actually find the argument underlying Obama's statement controversial. It's a pretty standard thesis, and has been delivered, in various forms, by everyone from John McCain to Bill Clinton.

I would be curious to see what statements of Bill Clinton and John McCain Ezra Klein is talking about. Personally, I have never seen a pol say what Obama said. Political scientists, bloggers, intellectuals, ME, yes. But pols? Never. See, pols have a different job - get votes. Obama already has trouble getting white working class votes. This statement certainly does not help him. But I think he will ride it out - precisely because of his "Creative class"/Media Darling status. More...

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Hillary Again Attacks Obama Over PA Remarks

Via Politico, here are Hillary Clinton's comments today in Indiana on Obama's gaffe. Video here.

Now, like some of you may have been, I was taken aback by the demeaning remarks Sen. Obama made about people in small town America. Sen. Obama's remarks are elitist, and they are out of touch. They are not reflective of the values and beliefs of Americans. Certainly not the Americans that I know — not the Americans I grew up with, not the Americans I lived with in Arkansas or represent in New York.

You know, Americans who believe in the Second Amendment believe it¹s a matter of Constitutional rights. Americans who believe in God believe it is a matter of personal faith. Americans who believe in protecting good American jobs believe it is a matter of the American Dream.

When my dad grew up it was in a working class family in Scranton. I grew up in a churchgoing family, a family that believed in the importance of living out and expressing our faith.

The people of faith I know don't "cling to" religion because they're bitter

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