SUSA predicts Clinton 62-31, with other (Edwards is on the ballot) 5. The demos are Clinton winning whites (89% of the vote) 67-26-6 and Obama winning African Americans (10% of the vote) 82-18 (Edwards gets zero).

SUSA has in the past underestimated the African American vote and the margins by which Obama will win them. So I will adjust those numbers to 12% of the vote and a 90-10 win for Obama. But I think Edwards gets a lot less of the white vote than predicted too. I give Clinton half of his vote. so, doing my adjusted math, my Kentucky prediction is Clinton 63.4, Obama 33.4, Edwards 3.2.

Give us your Kentucky predictions and any other thoughts. We'll do an Oregon thread later. This is an Open Thread.

Oh this is funny as hell. You know what offended Publius and John Cole about Richard Cohen's column? An insult to Robert E. Lee. I kid you not.

By Big Tent Democrat

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, in association with the Republican media firm Greener and Hook, recently completed a survey of rural voters in 13 battleground states, on behalf of the Center for Rural Strategies. The results:

• Hillary - McCain: tied (46% each)
• McCain - Obama: McCain by 9 (50 - 41%)

The message the Republican pollsters have for Republicans:

The competitiveness reflects the on-going national problems facing the Republican brand, as well as the deep economic anxiety that is particularly acute among rural families on one hand, balanced against doubts about Obama’s values.

Among the key findings:

Hillary Clinton isn't falling for the media meme that Obama will have the nomination sewn up tomorrow night.

"You can declare yourself anything, but if you don't have the votes, it doesn't matter," Clinton said Monday in a satellite interview. "This is nowhere near over."

Hillary's campaign is right behind her:

"Senator Obama's plan to declare himself the Democratic nominee tomorrow night in Iowa is a slap in the face to the millions of voters in the remaining primary states and to Senator Clinton's 17 million supporters," said Clinton communications chief Howard Wolfson. "Premature victory laps and false declarations of victory are unwarranted."

More...

I'm just getting in from work and haven't seen any news yet today. Thanks to Big Tent Democrat and TChris for their postings.

Here's another open thread until I get up to speed, which will could be a while.

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I post this one to annoy. From Ras:

Obama 44
McCain 45

Clinton 50
McCain 43

Let the insults from Obama supporters begin. Oh, let's make this an Open Thread. I am out for a while. I think J and Chris will be around though.

By Big Tent Democrat

Comments now closed

I believe this is a political mistake by the Obama camp:

Barack Obama will reach a significant milestone Tuesday as he marches toward the Democratic nomination for president — a majority of pledged delegates at stake in all the primaries and caucuses. . . . "A clear majority of elected delegates will send an unmistakable message — the people have spoken, and they are ready for change," Obama campaign manager David Plouffe wrote in a memo to supporters Monday.

The Obama campaign will ignore Florida and Michigan tomorrow night. There simply is no getting around that. and for what? To declare victory on May 20 as opposed to June 3? This is simply stupid. The Associate Press of course is on Obama's side on this, but actually harms him:

Her campaign is also trying to change the math by getting the delegates seated from the Michigan and Florida primaries. . . . The Democratic National Committee's rules panel is scheduled to address the issue May 31. If any of the delegates are reinstated, it would increase the number needed to clinch the nomination.

By implication, the AP is saying Barack Obama is fighting AGAINST Florida and Michigan. That simply is not the headline Barack Obama should want.

By Big Tent Democrat

Robert Byrd endorses Barack Obama:

Sen. Robert C. Byrd, D-W.Va., endorsed Barack Obama for president shortly after noon today, focusing on his hope to end the Iraq War. "As people all across this great nation know, I have been one of the most outspoken opponents of the Bush administration's misguided war in Iraq and its saber rattling around the globe," Byrd said. He said he had "no intention of involving myself in the Democratic campaign for President in the midst of West Virginia's primary election. But the stakes this November could not be higher."

Byrd praised both Obama and Hillary Clinton, saying their "integrity, honor, love for this country and strong belief in our Constitution I deeply respect...

That's a Super Delegate for Obama, who is the likely nominee. I doubt that makes West Virginia competitive for Obama in the Fall.

By Big Tent Democrat

SUSA on Oregon and Kentucky. In Oregon:

In the Oregon Democratic Primary, which is conducted entirely by mail-in ballot, Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton by 9 points among the 77% of likely voters who have already returned a ballot, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KATU-TV in Portland. When all likely voters are included, including those who say they will return a ballot before the window of opportunity closes, Obama defeats Clinton 55% to 42%.

In Kentucky, the FINAL SUSA poll:

Hillary Clinton remains 2:1 atop Barack Obama. . . . Today, it's Clinton 62%, Obama 31%, effectively unchanged from results over the past six weeks. Among African Americans, Obama leads 9:2; Clinton takes a majority of the votes in every other demographic group and in each region of the state.

There has been a lot gnashing of teeth by Obama supporters about even discussing the popular vote. They are mad that Hillary Clinton claims she is leading in the popular vote. As it happens, I do not agree with Hillary Clinton on this. I think Obama leads in the popular vote by about 260,000 votes as we speak.

I accept the RCP numbers that include FL, MI and the caucus results, except for Washington which had a contemporaneous primary result (that reduces Obama's total margin there by 50,000.) But unlike RCP, my calculus is assigning the uncommitted vote in Michigan to Obama. Putting all this together, I have Obama leading the popular vote by roughly 260,000 votes out of 34,000,000 cast so far. In percentage terms that gives Obama a 0.7% lead. There are five jurisdictions left to vote. So this could change as well. But why does it matter? I'll explain why I think it does on the flip.

Mark Halperin reporting:

[Michelle Obama on GMA this morning] [s]ays she didn’t say that she didn’t want her as her husband’s running mate, adding: “I think the world of Hillary Clinton, particularly as a woman…There is no way that I would say absolutely not to one of the most successful and powerful and groundbreaking women on this planet.”

(Emphasis supplied.) Whether she means it or not, it means a lot that she did say that. Personally, I am quite pleased. Well done, Michelle Obama.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only.

comments closed

Jon Alter, in this discussion with Mickey Kaus, demonstrates the reason why Democrats have been losing most Presidential elections. Alter says:

[Clinton] chose to embarrass herself with these lame things she has done in the last few weeks.

Alter is referring to Hillary Clinton's appeals to working class voters. To elitists like Jon Alter, appeals to working class voters are "lame." Let's hope Barack Obama is not listening to folks like Jon Alter because Obama's lack of appeal to working class voters SHOULD be a concern for any thinking Democrat.

Alter say many other silly things in this discussion, but that one was the one that should worry Dems the most, if it is the prevailing wisdom in the Obama camp.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Suffolk Universtiy's latest polling seems to say so. In Oregon:

Obama 45
Clinton 41
Undecided 8
Refused 6

In Kentucky:

Obama 25
Clinton 51
Edwards 6
Undecided 11
Uncommitted 5
Refused 2

Interesting.

By Big Tent Democrat

Comments closed