Preview of South Dakota Primary

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 07:58:00 AM EST
Tags: South Dakota '08 (all tags)

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At an appearance in Sioux Falls Monday night, Hillary Clinton said she is getting ready to begin the next phase of her campaign -- convincing superdelegates that she is more electable in November and better able to lead the country as President. This was her 5th visit to the state.

Clinton hinted that she isn’t ready to abandon her campaign, even though Sen. Barack Obama leads her in delegates. Clinton has no chance of making up her deficit in the remaining contests.

But Clinton and her supporters will make the case to superdelegates that her lead in the popular vote, and her wins in several key states, make her the strongest candidate. “We have a very strong case to make that I am in the best position to take back the White House,” she said.

From a briefing book (pdf) prepared for the primary on South Dakota: [More...]

The primary is closed. There are 195,063 registered Democrats among the states 796,000 residents. There are 15 pledged delegates and 8 superdelegates.

Both candidates have campaigned there, with Bill, Hillary or Chelsea making 30 appearances. At least one of them was in the state every day in the past week.

South Dakota is a decidedly Republican state. it has voted for a Democratic President only four times -- in 1896, 1932, 1936 and 1964.

Obama has the support of Tom Daschle, who was defeated in his re-election bid in 2004; Former Sen. George McGovern, who failed to carry South Dakota when he ran for President; and Reps. Stephanie Herzeth-Sandlin and Tim Johnson.

South Dakota's largest paper, the Argus Leader, endorsed Hillary. [More...]

It's largely rural. Think corn, soybeans and cattle.

Farming and ranching are big, but the state has no state or coporate income tax so banking has been growing. (If you have a Citbank credit card, that's why your payment gets mailed to South Dakota.)

Population has been declining in rural counties, but growing in suburban Lincoln County. The state's population is 796,000.

The state is 88% white and 1% African American. The Native American population is 8.8%. Both candidates have been campaigning for the Native American vote, promising health care and other financial solutions.

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Preview of South Dakota Primary | 49 comments (49 topical)

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That is what I like to hear....don't give up (5.00 / 2) (#1)
by PssttCmere08 on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 12:09:04 AM EST

Hillary...she is the best person for the job of leading America back to the once proud nation it was!!!

GO HILLARY!!!

: She just continues (5.00 / 3) (#3)
by felizarte on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 12:15:48 AM EST

to strengthen my faith in her courage, strength and dignity in the face of such a struggle. ALL THE WAY WITH HILLARY!

[ Parent ]

Obama and his campaign staff (5.00 / 2) (#2)
by miriam on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 12:15:03 AM EST

and his supporters seem to have forgotten the famous saying: Never count a Clinton out.

It's strange (5.00 / 1) (#4)
by Steve M on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 12:16:18 AM EST

how states like this have been Republican for a century, considering how drastically the Republican Party has changed its direction over the last century. How strange to see the same state vote for both radical isolationism and war without end.

Media... (none / 0) (#24)
by Alec82 on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:43:05 AM EST

...influence and a cultural gap, IMO. At least, more recently.

And to be fair, the Democratic Party has drastically changed its direction over the last century as well. There have been realignments.

Also, consider Hagel (not SD, but same region). He is socially conservative but openly mocked the Bush administration view of the war. Of course, only after it became clear to nearly everyone what was going on.

[ Parent ]

I live in South Dakota (none / 0) (#40)
by Dave B on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 08:25:41 AM EST

I have since the week before 9-11. The people here are Libertarian more so than Republican...

[ Parent ]

: Well (none / 0) (#41)
by Steve M on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 08:30:24 AM EST

That seems to describe in a nutshell why Obama does better in the West. Hillary Clinton's reputation for many years has been the Queen of Big Government.

[ Parent ]

I think Hillary will win (5.00 / 1) (#5)
by Dalton Hoffine on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 12:17:14 AM EST

But only by two points. It is much more like Nebraska, where Obama barely won the primary, than any of its surrounding states, but without the benefit of a major urban center like Lincoln. Sioux Falls hardly counts as urban, and neither does Pierre. SD does not count as a Mountain West state either, and is the only Plain State to have a primary rather than a caucus.

It'll be close, but I think the drive from many HRC supporters in SD to keep her in it will push her over the top by a few.

Wasn't it Sioux Falls (5.00 / 1) (#8)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 12:20:25 AM EST

where the Argus/RFK flap originated? This may bring her voters out because of outrage. I don't think it will bring Obama voters out because anyone in their right mind knew it was crock.

[ Parent ]

Yes, that was the place (5.00 / 0) (#17)
by shannon on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 12:53:39 AM EST

where the outrageous controversy about the RFK comment began. The Argus Leader supported Clinton's comments and I think the people of SD saw through the hyperbole of the media (and insanity of Olbermann).

I'm not sure if I heard this right, but it seemed that Obama's rally in Mitchell, SD yesterday was somewhat of a surprise. Could be that his campaign has been hearing things that support the ARG poll showing Clinton with a strong lead there.

[ Parent ]

Yep. (none / 0) (#10)
by Dalton Hoffine on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 12:23:07 AM EST

And somehow I think Daschle's support for Obama in SD might backfire a little. McGovern is still pretty popular amongst the state party there (and why not, for a fmr. Dem. Presidential nominee?), but Obama hasn't got a lot going for him in SD.

The problem with a youthful, activist base: School's out, and us youth tire quickly. :P

[ Parent ]

: School is out (none / 0) (#31)
by phat on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 03:28:58 AM EST

and Obama has been begging people from Nebraska to go to SD.
Which is interesting.

[ Parent ]

Think will win also (5.00 / 1) (#9)
by formerhoosier on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 12:22:23 AM EST

Interesting since CW was this was a shoo-in for Senator Obama before. Hoping ARG is right again with 25 to 30 point win. (Clinton supporter can dream - right?)

[ Parent ]

I think she will win with a bigger margin (5.00 / 3) (#12)
by Grace on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 12:25:30 AM EST

than that. I've known some people from South Dakota and I think they are kind of similar to folks in Arkansas, Tennessee, Pennsylvania. Rural, independent, they like government to be there for them when they need it and gone when they don't need it. They are also kind of old-fashioned and probably won't fall into the "Hope, Change, I want a Unity Pony" group.

I can see her doing pretty well in South Dakota, particularly if she has a beer with them. ;)

[ Parent ]

As a point of reference (5.00 / 5) (#7)
by Steve M on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 12:20:03 AM EST

The infamous Obama spreadsheet predicted an 11-point win in Montana and a 15-point win in SD.

: Way off on Puerto Rico too (none / 0) (#11)
by andgarden on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 12:24:16 AM EST

[ Parent ]

This helps me deal with (5.00 / 7) (#15)
by ap in avl on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 12:31:01 AM EST

the end of the primary season. I have to admit that I have looked forward to hearing her speak on a daily basis. She is brilliant, witty, and truly inspiring. She is a wonderful and tireless servant of the people.

The highlight of this season for me was waiting 6 hours to hear her speak and shake her hand. I have listened to and met many politicians over the past 25 years and none of them compared to Hillary.

So hearing that she plans on fighting excites me. Our country needs her voice, her vision on a regular basis. It will be good for her to get some rest after the brutal campaign schedule ends. But when she catches up on a little sleep and soothes her throat I'm sure she'll be out there making the case on a regular basis for why she IS the best candidate for POTUS 08.

And I'll work as hard as I can to get that message spread far and wide.

Go Hill!

Tim Johnson (5.00 / 6) (#16)
by hlr on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 12:38:56 AM EST

is an Obama endorser but said he would vote for the winner of the SD primary. Here's hoping!

: too bad all supers don't follow his lead (5.00 / 1) (#21)
by ChuckieTomato on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:10:12 AM EST

[ Parent ]

She also had her Rural support campaigning (5.00 / 4) (#18)
by nycstray on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 12:54:01 AM EST

there. http://tinyurl.com/5v8nwl

I'm really hoping she pulls off SD and makes MT a fight. She's gotten a lot of 'grassroots' endorsements in SD (22 NA leaders and 17 County Commissioners)

one federal goodie that (5.00 / 0) (#19)
by cpinva on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:01:40 AM EST

a fair number of SD residents do rely on is agricultural subsidies, which both candidates have indicated should, at minimum, be drastically reduced.

this could well explain SD's consistent republican status, at least since the great depression; republicans, their protestations of fiscal responsibility notwithstanding, have happily treated their agricultural friends to the government's (your's and mine) largesse.

SD will go republican in nov. that aside, i'd love to see her trounce obama there by 40 points or more.

The Obama fans say he did poorly in the poll (5.00 / 1) (#20)
by masslib on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:06:20 AM EST

because so many were at his rally. That's possible. There are not a lot of Democrats in SD.

: That's rich. (5.00 / 2) (#22)
by oculus on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:26:57 AM EST

[ Parent ]
: People don't understand polls (5.00 / 4) (#29)
by Prabhata on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 03:07:18 AM EST

a rally will not change a poll. I volunteered to do a poll for a politician. Polls are clusters of people representative of an area. So e.g. there will be a cluster (one page) with about 40 names. Only one person has to respond from that cluster. If the person one calls does not respond for whatever reason (not home, don't want to participate, has a stomach ache) say thank you and call another, until one is willing and answer the questions. Once one person has answered all the questions, pick up another page and do it all over again. Imagine trying to figure out what's in 100 boxes. Picking up a few contents from each box will determine what's inside if you know that most items in each box are very similar.

[ Parent ]

The polls (5.00 / 3) (#25)
by not buying it on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:50:04 AM EST

I was encouraged by the earlier polls, but noticed in the last few hours that 538.com has new analysis showing Obama winning both states. I don't really think that could be right, but I guess we will know soon enough. It is interesting to me that Poblano's analysis keeps showing Hillary's win % going up, and her winning the electoral college even as he seems to poo poo the argument that Obama can't win the general election?!!!

Anyway, I loved the rural campaign article. That is so great to have men like this go out and speak for Hillary with the rural population in S. Dakota. I just wish things sounded more promising for Montana.

Someone earlier mentioned how much they would miss listening to Hillary's speeches once the official primary ends...I think we should all write to her campaign and try to persuade her to tape a message for us each day, so we don't go into a terrible withdrawal.

I just sent off my voter registration change to unaffiliated and a letter to Dr. Dean advising him of said fact and a bit of explanation. Just one less angry, older, "low information", "down scale", uneducated white woman for them to be rid of. LOL

Sweet dreams,

Carolyn

: Following suit (5.00 / 6) (#36)
by melro on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 06:12:57 AM EST

I'm an older, white, educated woman married to a union blue collar worker from Michigan and we're both following the same unaffiliated path after this. Not that I would ever, ever vote Repug, but maybe in the future if enough of us amass another viable party will emerge that both Democrats and Repugs will have to contend with.
Power to the People!

[ Parent ]

Also on the not giving up vein (5.00 / 3) (#33)
by jfung79 on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 04:20:10 AM EST

I just read on the Austin American-Statesman website that Garry Mauro said Hillary will definitely not be quitting before this upcoming weekend, and may even be in Austin for the state Democratic convention that weekend! I'm excited!

: I know Garry, so what he says is true. (5.00 / 0) (#45)
by Angel on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 09:31:29 AM EST

[ Parent ]

I'm ready to see HRC's mug etched into (5.00 / 3) (#34)
by nulee on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 06:00:39 AM EST

Mount Rushmore! Go South Dakota, let's give her a big win there! on to the WH!

Catherine Dodge, et alii... (5.00 / 10) (#35)
by weltec2 on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 06:01:46 AM EST

mainstream editorialists who decided Hillary's defeat before it ever happened in order to determine for we voters who should be the nominee, know this: I will write in Hillary's name. The way you treated Gore... the way you have treated Hillary... you will laugh, I know, at an old man my age speaking this way on the internet but there will be a day of atonement.

In The Quiet American, Graham Greene wrote that "innocence is like a dumb leper that has lost his bell wandering the world meaning no harm." When I heard Obama speaking in Ohio about Hillary's position on NAFTA and he said that "America needs to move away from a blue collar economy to a white collar economy" my heart sank. While it is true that in the 50s when I was growing up America moved strongly toward a white collar society, blue collar workers were never distained. They were always looked upon as the backbone of American culture, and for good reason. America was built upon hard work. FDR (Keynes)gave the working man respectability.

Obama has clearly never worked a day in his life. He wouldn't know what a callous is. His contempt for the working man ill-fits him for the presidency of a nation of men who have worked all their lives to feed their families.

: I can't believe he said that. Not only callous (5.00 / 4) (#38)
by tigercourse on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 06:48:55 AM EST

but also not economically feasible. You ever have a class where you were pretty sure you knew more about the subject then the professor/teacher? That's the feeling I get with this guy.

[ Parent ]

Actually (5.00 / 1) (#42)
by MikeDitto on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 08:32:04 AM EST

Banking is huge there because the usury rate is unlimited.

PBS had an interesting documentary about it, I think it was FRONTLINE. There was a race to the bottom between states for the most consumer-unfriendly banking regulations and South Dakota won. These days it's almost a guarantee that if you have a credit card it was issued out of Sioux City.

Found it (5.00 / 1) (#43)
by MikeDitto on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 08:43:44 AM EST

You can watch the whole thing online. God I love PBS.

[ Parent ]

Interesting (none / 0) (#46)
by Steve M on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 09:57:22 AM EST

It was Obama who voted against the amendment that would have capped credit-card rates nationally at no more than 30 percent.

[ Parent ]

: Have to look into that further (none / 0) (#53)
by MikeDitto on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 10:55:58 AM EST

but I think there is case law saying that's unconstitutional.
We fielded a lot of questions here at the Udall campaign as to why Mark's Credit Cardholder's Bill of Rights didn't contain a usury cap and if memory serves it's because it's unconstitutional. It's just not in front of me to look into at the moment.

[ Parent ]
: Don't tell me that (none / 0) (#60)
by denise on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:44:27 PM EST

I have good credit and they raised my rate to 29.5% (plus $39 fee) because I bounced an EXTRA payment by accidentally erasing my bank account number from their website. My bill was paid on time.
Lucky for me I don't ever carry a balance.

[ Parent ]

If this were the general instead of the primary (5.00 / 1) (#44)
by Nettle on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 09:19:07 AM EST

Hillary would probably get far more Republican votes in SD than would Obama. In that only Dems are voting today Obama's 'machine' approach may have the benefit with party people there. We'll see what kind of Native gotv they've put together. Usually they go great guns for the vote at Pine Ridge and leave out the other 8 First Nations. We'll see! Obama will need a big turnout there. But my Sen. Theresa Two Bulls needs a big turnout, too, in Pine Ridge, to keep her seat.

Pretty clear that Hillary has been campaigning there for the general, though, or wouldn't have reached so deeply into the state for ALL the votes, including those 70,000+ Independents.

Nice, pic, Jeralyn!

The Florence Steen vote in Rapid City (5.00 / 0) (#47)
by Nettle on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 10:03:57 AM EST

We've been trying to figure out how to get West River to vote more Dem for years. Hillary sure has them fired up!

In honor of Florence Steen, woman's husband, strangers vote to replace lost Clinton vote

And stopping at Tally's was the perfect thing to do.

Hillary overcame the 'smear' (5.00 / 2) (#51)
by Nettle on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 10:43:53 AM EST

SoDakRod, you know as well as I do that the most amazing thing about Hillary doing well in a Republican working class state is that quite recently even it seemed she would never live down the Limbaugh/Gingrich years-long mantra among that voting group of 'she's a bit*h'.

And Obama supporters/bloggers in SD have done all they can to keep that Gingrich sentiment alive. While the rightwing bloggers in SD have dumped on Obama, the Obama bloggers have unfairly dumped on Hillary.

: Oy vey. (5.00 / 1) (#57)
by liminal on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 12:26:28 PM EST

There is no HRC-Rush Limbaugh alliance, and HRC is not tearing the party apart.

[ Parent ]

Obama's Weaknesses vs Hillary in re Old People: (5.00 / 0) (#55)
by Doc Rock on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 11:04:25 AM EST

. . . weaker on health care and weaker (and wrong) on Social Security!

Famous "son" of South Dakota: (none / 0) (#6)
by Grace on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 12:19:17 AM EST

Al Neuharth, ex-CEO of Gannett Newspapers and founder of USA Today.

Famous Son, eh? (none / 0) (#23)
by magnetics on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:43:03 AM EST

Didn't you leave something out? Or am I fogetting site rules?

[ Parent ]

: I posted this (none / 0) (#26)
by Grace on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:59:21 AM EST

because a lot of journalists and lawyers post here. Al Neuharth is also the founder of the Freedom Forum (dedicated to First Amendment rights) and the Newseum in Washington DC so he's kind of an icon with older journalists and Constitutional Law lawyers. But he's originally from South Dakota. In fact, I think he started his career at the Argus Leader.
He was also married to Lori Wilson who was a Republican something-or-other (can't remember what office). Anyway, he's kind of all tied up in Media, Washington DC, Gannett newspapers, First Amendment, and South Dakota (which was the topic of this thread). ;)

[ Parent ]

The briefing book is wrong... (none / 0) (#13)
by OrangeFur on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 12:25:42 AM EST

Daschle was defeated in 2004.

that was my mistake (none / 0) (#14)
by Jeralyn on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 12:29:36 AM EST

I added that line -- I've changed it to 2004. Thanks!

[ Parent ]

: And Johnson is a Sen., not a Rep. (none / 0) (#50)
by RonK Seattle on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 10:34:43 AM EST

[ Parent ]

Are the white voters different in SD than MT? (none / 0) (#39)
by Saul on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 07:15:43 AM EST

If she is winning most of the white vote why would the white vote choose Obama in one state and Hilary in another state?

: MT is organized differently than SD (none / 0) (#48)
by Nettle on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 10:18:19 AM EST

And SD has a definite West River/East River split (Missouri River). Might as well be two states; different in geology, different in voter registration with West River more Republican. West River ranchers. East River farmers and more 'urban' towns and cities.
The organizing they've accomplished in MT, tho, just hasn't happened in SD with the Dem party. Talk to Daschle/Hildebrand about that one... .

[ Parent ]