Nate Silver:

Dawn breaks over New York City on Wednesday, Nov. 3. Democrats catching the early train to work are thinking about adding a little whiskey to their morning coffee. Because the headlines they are reading are truly terrible.

[. . .] Pundits are running out of metaphors to describe what just happened. Not a wave, a hurricane. Not a hurricane, a tsunami! Not a tsunami; a tsunami from a magnitude 9.5 earthquake. Or by a meteor strike!

Democrats knew it was going to be bad. But they didn’t think it was going to be this bad. So, what happened?

In typical Silver style, he's not saying this is his prediction, just a possibility (that's why he gets the big bucks!) As long as we are all hedging, I fall back on my tried and true cliche - time will tell.

Speaking for me only

Who is Ibrahim Hassan al-Asiri, the Saudi bomb-maker believed to be in Yemen with AQAP the last few years? And why is he a suspect in the cargo escapade?

Remember the story of the young Saudi who joined AQAP, repented and asked for a meeting with Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, the Saudi Deputy Interior Minister who handles the country's counter-terrorism matters? And how in August, 2009,right before Ramadam, a meeting was set up between the Prince and the young Abdullah Hassan Taleh al-Asiri, so that al-Asiri could surrender and enter Saudi Arabia's much acclaimed rehabilitation program. It was expected to be a major media event, and another chance for the Saudis to show off their program.

Al-Asiri was admitted to the palace, underwent a number of checks, and then met with the prince. An ied hidden on his body (believed then to have been hidden in his rectum) exploded, killing Asiri but not harming the Prince. He wasn't close enough. The IED was composed of PETN.

Al-Asiri's older brother is Ibrahim Hassan al-Asiri. [More...]

Arizona's radical immigration bill will be front and center at oral arguments today.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit will hear Arizona's appeal of a lower-court ruling that blocked the most-contested provisions of the law from taking effect. The law, signed in April by Gov. Jan Brewer ®, empowers police to question people whom they have a "reasonable suspicion" of being in the country illegally.

The Associated Press has more.

A Guantanamo military commission jury has sentenced child soldier Omar Khadr to 40 years.

The Pentagon makes a big deal of saying Khadr won't get credit for time served. And they bury the most salient fact: It's an 8 year sentence, limited by the plea agreement, and he'll serve one more year at Guantanamo and then be returned to Canada to serve the rest.

Khadr’s sentence is limited by the terms of his plea agreement to eight years confinement, but he receives the benefit of whichever is less -- the adjudged sentence or the eight-year sentence limitation. Consistent with the terms of Khadr's plea agreement, the governments of Canada and the United States exchanged notes reflecting that both would support Khadr's transfer to Canadian custody to serve the remainder of his approved sentence after he serves one year in U.S. custody.

Omar has spent the last 8 years, one-third of his life, in U.S. detention. Hopefully, Canada will grant him an early release. The U.S. acknowledged in its diplomatic note exchange with Canada that Canada could release him at any time after he arrives there. [More...]

What a perfect night for AMC to premiere its new series, "Walking Dead."

If zombies and the apocalypse aren't your thing, there are new episodes of Boardwalk Empire, the Next Iron Chef, Desperate Housewives and Brothers and Sisters.

What was your favorite candy today? And what will you do with the leftovers?

This is an open thread, all topics welcome.

Just in case any tech gurus are reading today: I've been battling a new version of an e-discovery program the Government uses when providing us with wiretap discovery. It's called IPro Tech.

It's using a "new build" and the program won't open on my Windows XP desktop. I get an error that says "run-time error, invalid file format, 20009." [More..]

How are you celebrating Halloween tonight? Are you getting dressed up and going out or to a party? Or turning the lights out and pretending not to be home?

This is an open thread, all topics welcome.

In what is believed to be a first for an immigration court in Denver, a judge has found ICE agents broke the law during an immigration raid. The evidence was ordered suppressed and removal proceedings were dismissed.

Andrew Travers at the Aspen Daily News has a good recap of what happened. The press release is here, and the court's 13 page ruling blasting the ICE agents is here (Major thanks to Andrew for getting me the opinion, I had searched everywhere. Even Lexis didn't have it.)

Before 6:00 a.m., on March 24, 2009, ten ICE agents, led by Special Agent Steve Turza, surrounded a cabin believed to house undocumented workers. Shouting that there had been a highway accident outside, the agents went to 4 bedrooms on 3 floors and rousted the sleeping occupants with flashlights and the terrifying news of an accident. The agents claimed they were the police and forced their way into the bedrooms.

Only there was no accident, the ICE agents had no authority to enter the house. 9 sleeping adults and 3 children were roused and rounded up, and 8 of the adults arrested and taken to an immigration detention facility. [More...]

I'm still mired in a slump, going 6-8 last week (though my 10 unit and 5 unit picks came through, giving me a nice profit for the week.) For the year, I am 55-60. Here are this week's picks:

Syracuse (+6.5) over Cinn, Purdue (+17) over the Illini, Pitt (-9.5) over Louisville, Mich St. (+6) over Iowa, Northwestern (-4) over Indiana, Tennessee (+18) over South Carolina, Auburn (-7) over Ole Miss, Nebraska (-6) over Missouri and Michigan (-3) over Penn State.

Best bets - Georgia (pick) over Florida, Oregon (-7) over USC. Oregon especially is a stone cold lock. Bet the mortgage money (kidding.)

Go Gators!

This is an Open Thread.

Denver passed a metropolitan milestone last week with the opening of its first Four Seasons hotel. It took a few years to build, as it was done from the ground up. The first 17 floors are the hotel and the 28 floors above that are very pricey condos, ranging from $895,000 to $7.5 million.

Four Seasons are probably my favorite hotels anywhere, and I've been fortunate enough to stay in more than my fair share around the world. (The Four Seasons on 57th St in New York is one of my all time favorites. Incredible beds, and the best bathtubs ever, that fill in 60 seconds.)

So what's Denver's Four Seasons like? Does it compare to those in fancier, more sophisticated or tropical places? I spent five hours there last night, celebrating a friend's birthday with a group of friends. I was tempted to spend the night, since they are offering an introductory special rate of $180 a night until January 31, but I didn't need to. I observed enough to know the hotel is a winner and a great addition to Denver. [More...]

The news is filled with a terror scare today from two packages with explosives headed to synagogues in the U.S from Yemen. President Obama says it sounds like al Qaida Arab Peninsula. (AQAP.) The Guardian reports cleric Anwar al-Awlaki may be behind it.

I'm just getting to the news so I don't have any thoughts on it yet. Here's a thread to discuss it.

Via Balloon Juice, a Jonah Goldberg Op-Ed published in the Chicago Tribune:

I'd like to ask a simple question: Why isn't Julian Assange dead? [. . .] Why wasn't Assange garroted in his hotel room years ago?

It's a serious question.

It's not a serious question of course. And Goldberg is not a serious person. But for all the fainting couches the "progressive elite" pundits fell on regarding Markos' book American Taliban, it is remarkable that this column was published by a major newspaper in the United States.

Speaking for me only