Here's how my CFB year has gone - I could hit all 19 games I picked today and I'd still be under .500. I'm a bit better on the money side as I've done decently with my larger plays, but basically a disaster. But bowl season comes soon and a winning season dollar wise is still within reach. Today's picks:

Ohio State -1 (15 units) @ Michigan, Georgia -4 (4 units) @ Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech -4 (4 units) @ Virginia, Southern Mississippi @ Louisiana Tech -6, Louisville @ Kentucky +5, Iowa State @ West Virginia -14 (3 units), Clemson @ South Carolina +17, Cincinnati @ East Carolina -1, Alabama -15 (5 units) @ Auburn, UCLA +3 (3 units) @ USC, Oklahoma -7 (13 units) @ Oklahoma State, Texas A&m +6 (3 units) @ LSU, Notre Dame @ Stanford -3 (5 units), Florida State -3 (3 units) @ Florida, Mississippi @ Mississippi State +1 (3 units), Vanderbilt +18 (3 units) @ Tennessee, Northwestern @ Illinois +4 (3 units), BYU @ Utah State +3, North Carolina -4 (5 units) @ North Carolina State.

Go Gators!

Tuesday, the U.N. Security Council’s counter-terrorism committee held a conference at which several experts spoke about ISIS and foreign fighters. I found this media recap of the presentation of Scott Atran from the Centre for Resolution of Intractable Conflict at Oxford University very interesting. (He is highly credentialed, and his research in the field includes interviews with captured ISIS fighters and still fighting al Nusra fighters.)

He debunks several of the memes currently making the rounds as to ISIS' intentions and strategy, and the reasons young Western recruits find ISIS so attractive. He also explains why the U.S. counter-messaging campaign has been such a failure.[More...]

It's a Thanksgiving tradition we never miss here at Casa TalkLeft. Radio stations around the country today will play the 18 minute version of Arlo Guthrie's Alice's Restaurant, recorded in 1967.

Should you miss it on your local radio station and yearn for the original version, you can listen to the You Tube version above.

Why listen to Arlo's 18 minute version of Alice's Restaurant? Because it's like our liberal national anthem, that only comes around once day a year, so you don't want to miss it as it's coming around.

If you're wondering where Alice is, she's here. Does anyone besides me still have a hardcover edition of her 1969 Alice's Restaurant cookbook in their kitchen? (Photo here.) It's filled with tasty recipes and very easy instructions.

After relaxing and laughing with Arlo, you'll be ready for the chaos of Thanksgiving dinner. [More...]

If you're one of the lucky ones not running around like a maniac today, here's an open thread, all topics welcome.

Despite the rabid hype by Republicans, we are not in danger of getting killed by terrorists.

Consider, for instance, that since the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, Americans have been no more likely to die at the hands of terrorists than being crushed to death by unstable televisions and furniture. Meanwhile, in the time it has taken you to read until this point, at least one American has died from a heart attack. Within the hour, a fellow citizen will have died from skin cancer. Roughly five minutes after that, a military veteran will commit suicide. And by the time you turn the lights off to sleep this evening, somewhere around 100 Americans will have died throughout the day in vehicular accidents – the equivalent of “a plane full of people crashing, killing everyone on board, every single day.”

Daniel Kahneman, professor emeritus at Princeton University, has observed that “[e]ven in countries that have been targets of intensive terror campaigns, such as Israel, the weekly number of casualties almost never [comes] close to the number of traffic deaths.”

[More...]

I would have loved to read Carly Simon's memoirs 30 years ago. Now, I could care less.

The parade of famous men she recounts sleeping with are all now in their 70's. No one is going to read about her exploits now and say "I wish it were me."

I doubt anyone who remembers wondering who "You're So Vain" was about 45 years ago could care less about the answer now. Maybe she needs the money, but I think the only people who will read this book are those vain enough to wonder if they're mentioned in it.

During a Telemundo Facebook chat, Hillary Clinton said her use of the term "illegal" in conjunction with "immigrants" at a campaign speech in New Hampshire a few weeks ago was a poor choice of words and she won't be repeating it.

Here's the question she was asked: [More...]

The State Department has issued a world-wide travel alert for U.S. travelers. You can read it here. It expires in February.

There's no mention of an imminent specific threat. And it's not just travel:

U.S. citizens should exercise vigilance when in public places or using transportation. Be aware of immediate surroundings and avoid large crowds or crowed places. Exercise particular caution during the holiday season and at holiday festivals or events.

Not is it directed solely to ISIS: [More...]

Belgian police asked citizens and journalists not to discuss their ongoing terror operation today on social media. Belgians complied with thousands of them posting photos of cats instead.

The Belgian Interior Ministry's Crisis Centre was very grateful.

Did they get their man? No. The New York Times reports that according the prosecutor's press release, they made 16 arrests but their target got away. Other reports have sighted him driving towards Germany.

This is an open thread, all topics welcome.

Brussels looks like a militarized war zone. It's on lockdown, the Metro has been closed. Authorities say there is a specific and immediate threat of a "Paris Style" attack.

The still-at-large alleged Paris bomber, Saleh Abdeslam, 26. He's believed to be in Brussels, trying to make his way back to Syria. There are reports he has physically disguised his appearance and using a new name, Yassine Baghli. Some friends of his brother say he contacted people on Skype trying to get back to Syria. [More...]

The attack in Mali at the Radisson Blu hotel in Bamako, seems to be the work of an al-Qaida affiliated group -- most likely Ansar Dine. Its leader Iyad Ag Ghaly called for attacks on France this week. France has forces in Mali assisting the anti-terror fight. More on the leader here.

The attack was at an international hotel filled with foreigners. The gunmen spoke English but shouted "Allahu Akbar." Three people are dead as of now, but they may be gunmen not hostages. 80 have been freed. Mali special forces stormed in. U.S. Special Operations forces are reportedly assisting.

This is an open thread, all topics welcome.

ISIS has released Dabiq #12, the 12th issue of its glossy English magazine. (no links to magazine in comments please.) It says a soda can was used to take down the Russian Plane.

There's an article by John Cantlie, "Shift and Paradigm, Part 2". He refers to events in June and July, so at least he was still alive then, and hopefully is today.

He writes about the future course of ISIS: [More...]