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Monday :: January 07, 2008

Obama and Defendants' Rights: Progressive Or Not?

Where does Obama stand on criminal justice issues? Is he really a progressive? Will he stand up for the rights of the criminally accused ... or just those of the wrongfully charged or convicted?

He's been quick to point out his admirable work in Illinois getting legislation passed to require mandatory taping of police interrogations and enact some death penalty and racial profiling reforms. He has complained about the racial disparity in crack-powder cocaine sentences and once advocated abolishing mandatory minimums. (For Obama in 2004 on abolishing mandatory minimums, see this video clip at 1:00 minute in.)

More recently, he has retreated to promising a review of mandatory minimum sentences.

Since the mainstream media seems incapable of presenting anything but his words promising change, hope, optimism and a "working majority" (meaning compromise with Republicans) I took an afternoon to research his record going back to 1998.

The results, some progressive and laudatory, others decidedly not, as well as my prior posts on his crime record and statements as U.S. Senator and presidential candidate, are detailed below:

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Paths To the Nomination

Speaking for me only.

Barack Obama is the strong frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. His smashing win in Iowa has been the catalyst. In the RCP average, he holds and 8 point lead over Clinton and a 19 point lead over Edwards. His path is clear. Win New Hampshire big. Roll the big Mo to South Carolina and and then hold the upper hand on Super Tuesday February 5.

Hillary Clinton has a conceivable path to the nomination. Run close to Obama in New Hampshire (if she keeps it within 5, I think she can spin it to a draw maybe), perform well in South Carolina and beat Obama on Super Tuesday. I think the chances are slim of any one of these things happening, let alone all of them.

John Edwards has no conceivable path to the nomination in my view. Even if he has a miracle second in New Hampshire, Obama will have buried him. Moreover Obama is already the change candidate and Edwards' reluctance to go after Obama, both in Iowa and in New Hampshire, demonstrated to me at least, that Edwards really is not running for President, he is just running against Clinton.

More . .

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Today's The Big Day: High Broderism Summit In Oklahoma

Oh? You did not hear about it? That's understandable. After Broder announced it with big fanfare last week, Barack Obama's victory in Iowa completely deflated the event.

Michael Bloomberg is NOT running for President now of course. High Broderism has no purpose other than the massaging of big egos. I imagine the folks gathered there will be singing the praises of Obama and McCain. They will declare victory and get out of the Unity 08 business.

This is a big reason to like Barack Obama I must admit.

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Franklin Pierce NH Poll: Still Tight

Unlike a number of polls that have Obama opening a substantial lead, the Franklin Pierce poll has it still tight between Obama and Clinton with Edwards well back:

Obama 34 (28)
Clinton 31 (32)

Edwards 20 (20)
1/6 (1/2)

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Michael Vick May Get a Year Knocked Off His Jail Sentence

Michael Vick has been transferred to the federal prison camp at Leavenworth, KS to enable him to participate in a drug treatment program which could knock a year off his 23 month sentence.

The Bureau of Prisons Residential Drug Abuse Program is a program available to all qualifying federal inmates with a drug problem.

An inmate must meet the following eligibility criteria to be admitted into RDAP: (1) sentenced to BOP custody, (2) determined by the BOP to have a substance abuse disorder, (3) sign BOP's "Agreement to Participate in the Bureau's Residential Drug Abuse Program," (4) reside in a BOP institution, (5) serving a sentence with enough time to fully participate in a residential drug abuse program, and (6) willing to participate in a residential drug abuse treatment program. Upon successful completion of RDAP, an inmate can receive a sentence reduction of up to 12 months, limited financial rewards, and additional privileges within the institution. If inmates fail to complete the program, they are ineligible to receive these incentives. Inmates are ineligible for the sentence reduction if their current or past criminal history includes a serious violent offense.

It's not only available at Leavenworth. In 2005, 18,027 male and female inmates participated in BOP’s residential drug abuse treatment programs.

We need more federal prisons to offer these programs, not outrage that Vick was allowed to participate in one.

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Sunday :: January 06, 2008

CNN: WMUR Poll: Obama Ahead With NH Dems-Indep. Combo

A new CNN/WMUR poll taken Jan. 5 and 6 has been released. I got the actual poll results by e-mail.

Interviews with 341 New Hampshire residents who say they will vote in the Democratic primary and 268 New Hampshire residents who say they will vote in the Republican primary conducted by telephone.

The margin of error is 5 points for the total vote and 8 points for the Registered Democrat/Independent voters and men/women voters.

The results are below, and there are some interesting contradictions:

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Pack Journalism and Gender Politics

Taylor Marsh has a good post on the media's gender bias against Hillary where a show of passion or a flash of anger or forceful self-defense is deemed shrill and a laugh is deemed a cackle.

While Big Tent doesn't agree, I think Kevin Drum nails it:

Am I feeling bitter? You bet. Not because Hillary Clinton seems more likely than not to lose — I can live with that pretty easily — but because of how she's likely to lose. Because the press doesn't like her. Because any time a woman raises her voice half a decibel she instantly becomes shrill.

I'm disgusted and embarrassed by the media's treatment of Hillary Clinton. And their fawning over Barack Obama and his mantra of "change."

Kevin goes on to say: [More...]

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New Hampshire: Fox Republican Debate

Another Republican debate in New Hampshire is now on Fox News. Is anybody watching? I am. I'm not going to live blog, but I will add some thoughts here or in the comments. Hope you join me.

6:12 pm. Romney and Huckabee are fighting. Romney to Huckabee" "You make up facts faster than you talk and that's pretty fast."

Giuliani is a terrible debater. He's all statistics and nothing loses a tv audience faster than stats and percentages. It's TV 101.

6:34 pm: McCain says he knows how to get Osama bin Laden and he will get him. If he does know how to get him, isn't it his patriotic duty to tell George Bush?

6:55 pm: Huckabee: The prisoners at Guantanamo are being treated "too darn good." Fred Thompson says, well they have certain rights.

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CNN/UNH Poll: Obama Up 10

Now we see the Iowa bounce:

In the survey, conducted by the University of New Hampshire on Saturday and early Sunday, 39 percent of likely Granite State Democratic primary voters back Obama as the party’s nominee — that’s ten points ahead of Clinton’s 29 percent. Obama is up six points and Clinton down four points from our survey conducted on Friday and early Saturday. Former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina is at 16 percent in the new survey, down four points from Saturday. Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico is in fourth place, with the support of 7 percent of likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters, with Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio at 2 percent.

BTW, (speaking for me only) this poll demonstrates, yet again, the utter stupidity of Edwards' debate strategy yesterday, as Obama is taking the hide out of his support. Edwards is closer to Richardson now than he is to Clinton. If he is not careful, he'll end up 4th in New Hampshire.

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JFK Was No Obama

What a great find from a host of people.

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New Hampshire Demographics and the Independent Vote

Given the importance the media is attaching to the New Hampshire primary (as it did with Iowa) I'm wondering about the state's population and demographics. Who are these people who may be so influential in picking the Democratic nominee? Here's some reference points:

  • Total population (2006 census): 1.3 million.
  • Percentage over age 65: 12.4 (same as national). 95.8 of residents are white, 1.1% are African-American. 6.6% live below the poverty line (compared with 12.7% nationally.)
  • There are 234 incorporated cities and towns.

More...

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Um, What Meltdown Coverage?

Kevin Drum and Ezra Klein are bemoaning the pack coverage of Hillary's meltdown. Well, um, I expected it, but I must admit it never materialized. Not sure what Kevin and Ezra are talking about frankly.

I thought the coverage was pretty fair. What did I miss?

Well there was this from wonkette, Ana Cox, but not in anything that was in print or mattered.

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