
The results of yesterday's CNN-WMUR New Hampshire poll have been updated to include additional telephone polling conducted yesterday (Sunday). Yesterday's numbers included all day Saturday polling and Sunday polling only from noon to 3 pm. The final numbers reflect the addition of the additional Sunday calls. The revised poll results are here (pdf).
The significant findings for the Democratic candidates, when adding in the results from an additional 258 voters who plan to vote in the Democratic primary:
- Only 53% of likely Democratic primary voters have firmly decided on their preferred candidate. 26% are leaning towards a candidate and 21% are undecided.
- Among likely Democratic primary voters, the numbers are: Obama, 39%, Hillary 30%, Edwards, 16%.
- 60% of registered Independent voters will vote in the Democratic primary and 40% in the Republican.
Bottom line: 16 hours before most polling places open in New Hampshire, 47% of those likely to vote in the Democratic primary have not made up their mind.
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British humorist and political commentator Martin Lewis, writing at Huffpo today points out that change takes years to effect and will be rebuffed by the Republicans at every turn.
Assuming Obama wins, and the change his supporters expected doesn't materialize fast enough in our "I want it now" world, as it won't, Martin asks whether the young voters and others who turned to him for his message of change will still be with us when it's time for the 2010 and 2014 Congressional elections, or the 2012 presidential race, when Obama would have to run for re-election.
Will the beauty of Obama's inspirational poetry sustain millions of fickle first-time voters through the many, many harsh years that will come with the realities of governing? Especially years when there will be bitter and venal fights for change?
Inspiring the young and disaffected to vote is a noble undertaking. And Barack Obama deserves our utmost respect and appreciation for what he is achieving. He (and we) also needs to be sure that he is not inciting expectations that he - and indeed any president - is powerless to fulfill among millions of people who (foolishly) expect instant results. And who are known to turn on a dime when they don't get them...
I got to know Martin at the Aspen Comedy festival several years ago when we ended up attending several events together and shared a few meals. We stayed in touch by e-mail for a few years. He's smart and perceptive and today I think he makes good points.
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Adam Liptak has an article in today's New York Times, If Your Hard Drive Could Testify, about court fights over whether the Government can inspect the contents of your laptop's hard drive when coming into the country.
The government contends that it is perfectly free to inspect every laptop that enters the country, whether or not there is anything suspicious about the computer or its owner. Rummaging through a computer’s hard drive, the government says, is no different than looking through a suitcase. One federal appeals court has agreed, and a second seems ready to follow suit.
It might be time to leave the laptop at home if it's not essential to your overseas trip. Or ship it home via federal express and bring a dvd player instead to watch movies on the long flight.
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Update: Think Progress lays out the hypocrisy of media treatment.
Update: Ezra Klein has Obama's and Edward's responses. Go read.
Hillary Clinton showed emotion today when responding to a New Hampshire voter at a campaign stop. The video is here.
She took an unexpected question from a woman in the audience. "My question is very personal, how do you do it?" asked Marianne Pernold Young, a freelance photographer from Portsmouth, New Hampshire. "How do you, how do you keep upbeat and so wonderful?"
"It's not easy, and I couldn't do it if I didn't passionately believe it was the right thing to do. You know I have [had] so many opportunities from this country [I] just don't want to see us fall backwards," she said. Then, her voice breaking and tears in her eyes, she said, "You know, this is very personal for me. It's not just political it's not just public. I see what's happening, and we have to reverse it."
She added:
"Some people think elections are a game, lot's of who's up or who's down, [but] it's about our country , it's about our kids' futures, and it's really about all of us together," she said.
Did she cry? Not that it should matter, but no, she didn't. She showed emotion. Will the media now blast her as weak instead of shrill?
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Are blogs influencing the New Hampshire voters? As an admittedly unscientific experiment, I just checked the last 100 visitors to a few sites.
None of TalkLeft's last 100 visitors logged on from New Hampshire. As to others: Daily Kos: 2; Firedoglake: 2; My DD: 0; Atrios: 1; Crooks and Liars: 0.
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I'm listening to the Supreme Court oral arguments in the Baze lethal injection case (Baze v. Rees (07-5439.) Justice Stevens is questioning the lawyer for the Kentucky Department of Corrections.
Justice Stevens just asked the lawyer for Kentucky about why veternarians won't even use the procedure on dogs. (Background, You Wouldn't Do a Dog This Way.) Justice Roberts jumped in and the KY lawyer said if you drop the first drug, which they've done, it's all fine and good.
Justice Stevens says he's concerned the second drug is also problematic.
Justice Ginsberg asks why they pick non-professional people to administer the drugs. (Doctors and nurses are banned. )
Sentencing Law and Policy has been following the case closely. How Appealing has gathering of news articles.
Here's an article on the lawyers arguing the case. The defense lawyer is a 29 year old public defender. [More...]
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Where does Obama stand on criminal justice issues? Is he really a progressive? Will he stand up for the rights of the criminally accused ... or just those of the wrongfully charged or convicted?
He's been quick to point out his admirable work in Illinois getting legislation passed to require mandatory taping of police interrogations and enact some death penalty and racial profiling reforms. He has complained about the racial disparity in crack-powder cocaine sentences and once advocated abolishing mandatory minimums. (For Obama in 2004 on abolishing mandatory minimums, see this video clip at 1:00 minute in.)
More recently, he has retreated to promising a review of mandatory minimum sentences.
Since the mainstream media seems incapable of presenting anything but his words promising change, hope, optimism and a "working majority" (meaning compromise with Republicans) I took an afternoon to research his record going back to 1998.
The results, some progressive and laudatory, others decidedly not, as well as my prior posts on his crime record and statements as U.S. Senator and presidential candidate, are detailed below:
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Speaking for me only.
Barack Obama is the strong frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. His smashing win in Iowa has been the catalyst. In the RCP average, he holds and 8 point lead over Clinton and a 19 point lead over Edwards. His path is clear. Win New Hampshire big. Roll the big Mo to South Carolina and and then hold the upper hand on Super Tuesday February 5.
Hillary Clinton has a conceivable path to the nomination. Run close to Obama in New Hampshire (if she keeps it within 5, I think she can spin it to a draw maybe), perform well in South Carolina and beat Obama on Super Tuesday. I think the chances are slim of any one of these things happening, let alone all of them.
John Edwards has no conceivable path to the nomination in my view. Even if he has a miracle second in New Hampshire, Obama will have buried him. Moreover Obama is already the change candidate and Edwards' reluctance to go after Obama, both in Iowa and in New Hampshire, demonstrated to me at least, that Edwards really is not running for President, he is just running against Clinton.
More . .
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Oh? You did not hear about it? That's understandable. After Broder announced it with big fanfare last week, Barack Obama's victory in Iowa completely deflated the event.
Michael Bloomberg is NOT running for President now of course. High Broderism has no purpose other than the massaging of big egos. I imagine the folks gathered there will be singing the praises of Obama and McCain. They will declare victory and get out of the Unity 08 business.
This is a big reason to like Barack Obama I must admit.
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Unlike a number of polls that have Obama opening a substantial lead, the Franklin Pierce poll has it still tight between Obama and Clinton with Edwards well back:
Obama 34 (28)
Clinton 31 (32)
Edwards 20 (20)
1/6 (1/2)
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Michael Vick has been transferred to the federal prison camp at Leavenworth, KS to enable him to participate in a drug treatment program which could knock a year off his 23 month sentence.
The Bureau of Prisons Residential Drug Abuse Program is a program available to all qualifying federal inmates with a drug problem.
An inmate must meet the following eligibility criteria to be admitted into RDAP: (1) sentenced to BOP custody, (2) determined by the BOP to have a substance abuse disorder, (3) sign BOP's "Agreement to Participate in the Bureau's Residential Drug Abuse Program," (4) reside in a BOP institution, (5) serving a sentence with enough time to fully participate in a residential drug abuse program, and (6) willing to participate in a residential drug abuse treatment program. Upon successful completion of RDAP, an inmate can receive a sentence reduction of up to 12 months, limited financial rewards, and additional privileges within the institution. If inmates fail to complete the program, they are ineligible to receive these incentives. Inmates are ineligible for the sentence reduction if their current or past criminal history includes a serious violent offense.
It's not only available at Leavenworth. In 2005, 18,027 male and female inmates participated in BOP’s residential drug abuse treatment programs.
We need more federal prisons to offer these programs, not outrage that Vick was allowed to participate in one.
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A new CNN/WMUR poll taken Jan. 5 and 6 has been released. I got the actual poll results by e-mail.
Interviews with 341 New Hampshire residents who say they will vote in the Democratic primary and 268 New Hampshire residents who say they will vote in the Republican primary conducted by telephone.
The margin of error is 5 points for the total vote and 8 points for the Registered Democrat/Independent voters and men/women voters.
The results are below, and there are some interesting contradictions:
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