Dan Abrams tonight on MSNBC counts the reasons the media is counting Hillary Clinton out too soon. He says "Obama lovers" have become obsessed and are incapable of making an objective analysis. To balance him, he's got two guests who are pro-Obama, and Lawrence O'Donnell who is playing the part of the unbiased observer:

1. She's ahead in polls in Ohio, Texas and PA. She gets a win in New Mexico. And the story line is "what if she loses?" No one is talking about the possibility that she could win big in those states.

2. Her campaign is re-tooling her field campaign.

3. The superdelegates: She's leading 260 to 181. Dan has been trashing the process for the last two weeks, but he says, these are the rules and she's ahead there. He says if it's close enough at convention time, we'll see a big fight for them.

4. The underdog factor. She has it now.

By Big Tent Democrat

Here's one standard:

This is America. I have freedom of speech and freedom of choice and I'm free to change my vote. I don't have to answer to anyone except God and my conscience.

-Christine Samuels, Superdelegate, New Jersey

I think that is fair. I think the popular vote should be her guide but the rules clearly allow her to make her own independent choice. That the state she represents voted by double digits for the opponent of the person Ms. Andrews has endorsed clearly indicates that she is not following the will of the voters.

Is Ms. Samuels subverting democracy? Does Move On condemn this move? How about the Super Delegate Transparency Project? Is Barack Obama encouraging the subversion of democracy by accepting the endorsement of Ms. Samuels (or Sens. Kerry and Kennedy, and Gov. Deval Patrick of MA)? Of course not. But it just goes to show how ridiculous some people look when they lambaste in the most outrageous ways the candidates in this race. For the sake of their own credibility, I hope that folks learn to have a little bit of measured judgment before going off on their latest tirade against either Obama or Clinton.

It's Official. Hillary has won New Mexico. She will get 14 delegates to Barack Obama's 12.

Vote total: Clinton 73,105 votes, Obama 71,396

Even sporting a pair of blue boxing gloves, Hillary Clinton came out swinging today at a General Motors plant in Ohio:

In a speech to General Motors workers and executives, Clinton trumped Obama's own economic plan from a day before and appeared to be channeling former rival John Edwards' populist anti-corporate message.

The Specifics of her plan:

She said she would rein in oil, insurance, credit card, student loan and Wall Street investment companies and generate $55 billion a year that would be used for middle class tax cuts, create jobs and pay for an array of domestic programs.

On Obama: [more]

Big Tent Democrat wrote earlier about the Quinnepac poll showing Hillary leading Barack Obama in Ohio, and PA. From the same poll, via MyDD, about a contest between McCain and Hillary and Obama:

• Florida: McCain 44 percent - Clinton 42 percent; McCain 41 percent - Obama 39 percent;
• Ohio: McCain 44 percent - Clinton 43 percent; McCain 42 percent - Obama 40 percent;
• Pennsylvania: Clinton 46 percent - McCain 40 percent; Obama 42 percent - McCain 41 percent.

In Georgia, an Insider Advantage poll today shows:

McCain: 47 percent, Clinton: 40 percent
McCain: 48 percent, Obama: 40 percent

In both contests independent voters said they would vote for McCain by a 52 percent-to-30 percent margin. Among Democrats, 75 percent said they would vote for Clinton. Sixty-nine percent of Democrats said they would vote for Obama.

More...

By a vote of 223 to 32, the House of Representatives today voted to hold former Bush White House Counsel Harriet Miers and Bush's Chief of Staff Josh Bolton in contempt for refusing to respond to a subpoena issued in the U.S. Attorney firing probe. Republicans boycotted the vote and walked out in protest.

It's been 25 years since a full Congress last voted on a contempt charge. In 1983,

The House voted 413-0 to cite former Environmental Protection Agency official Rita Lavelle for contempt of Congress for refusing to appear before a House committee. Lavelle was later acquitted in court of the contempt charge, but she was convicted of perjury in a separate trial.

It's the lie that gets them every time. Far better to take the 5th or face a contempt charge. This will take years to resolve in the courts, by which time everyone will have forgotten about why it was so important.

By Big Tent Democrat

Good for Greg Sargent and good for TPM:

Anyway, this should settle it: As dumb and clueless as Shuster's "pimp" remark, this was never really about him. The Clinton campaign, while genuinely upset about what Shuster said, lashed out at the network because they were primarily irked by Matthews' conduct, and were sending a message to MSNBC that it's time that Matthews muzzle himself.

Of course Tweety was the biggest problem, but Shuster (who defended Matthews and has his own pattern of sexist comments), Joe Scarborough and the entire network have a sexism problem in their coverage. But the important thing is it was about NBC's pattern of behavior, not about David Shuster's one remark. Good to see TPM acknowledge this.

The AP reports on the national primary/caucus numbers, only the numbers don't include an unspecified number of absentee ballots or early voters. Nonetheless, it's a handy partial guide:

State Dem Total Obama Clinton GOP Total
N.H. 284,104 104,772 112,251 233,381
Mich. 593,837 X 328,151 867,271
S.C. 530,322 295,091 141,128 442,918
Fla. 1,684,390 569,041 857,208 1,920,350
Ala. 539,743 302,684 226,454 563,822
Ariz. 422,460 181,416 218,064 500,341
Ark. 307,318 80,774 217,313 224,581
Calif. 4,228,134 1,827,485 2,226,622 2,370,142

More...

By Big Tent Democrat

For once I agree with Move On. Via TPM, which fails to note that Move On has endorsed Obama (poor journalism again from TPM by ME. My apologies to Greg Sargent) :

"The superdelegates are under lots of pressure right now to come out for one candidate or the other," reads the petition from MoveOn, which has endorsed Obama. "We urgently need to encourage them to let the voters decide between Clinton and Obama -- and then to support the will of the people."

Of course the problem with this is Move On, an Obama endorser, does not REALLY mean the will of the people, which is reflected in the popular vote, but in the pledged delegates, which are selected in a very imperfect and undemocratic process.

The rules allow Super Delegates to vote their conscience. That is their design. But I believe they should reflect the will of the people, as reflected in the VOTES of the people. That means following the popular vote. Move On seems not to believe in the will of the people, despite its protestations to the contrary.

Barack Obama unveiled an economic plan this week. From the Chicago Sun Times:

Obama's plan today is the most shameless piece of potential plagiarism that I have ever seen," McCain economic advisor Kevin Hassett said.

"He basically took Clinton's words and Clinton's policies and called them his own," Hassett said. "If I were a professor I'd give him an F and try to get him kicked out of school for something this terrible ... I remember Mrs. Clinton saying shared prosperity and I remember the bill that she introduced in August for infrastructure. The fact is these are things Obama has taken as his own without crediting the source of the ideas which was Mrs. Clinton."

Hillary's campaign responds: [More...]

By Big Tent Democrat

I expect Barack Obama to win Wisconsin easily, by at least 10 points. but the Rassmussen poll (which imo has consistently underpolled Clinton) says it is close:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Obama with a narrow four-point advantage over Clinton, 47% to 43%. . . . Clinton leads by ten points among women but trails by twenty-three points among men. Clinton leads among voters over 65 while Obama has the edge among younger voters.

Now here is the good news for all Dems:

Obama is viewed favorably by 80% of Likely Democratic Voters in Wisconsin, Clinton by 79%.