There's been a long discussion about numbers in comments to Big Tent's earlier post about the differential in voter power among states when it comes to selecting delegates.

For those of you who are number crunchers (and I'm not) here's some new stats on primary voter turnout and age differential among voters from George Mason University's U.S. Elections Project. (hat tip to Red Star Blog.)

NYPD Blue actor Esai Morales has been cleared of an allegation that he raped his ex-girlfriend, Elizabeth Mazzocchi. I'm glad. I like him.

I read about the allegations for the first time today, although his girlfriend held a news conference (transcript here)in December to accuse him publicly and she had (who else?) Gloria Allred file a civil suit against him. Allred since dropped out and Mazzocchi has new lawyers.

In the complaint filed by Allred, available here(pdf), Mazzocchi says Morales began physically abusing her in April, 2006 about a month after they moved in together. She says he raped her on May 19, 2006. She continued to live with him for months after that. She also claims he gave her a s.t. disease.

I spent several hours with Esai in New York taping a Montel Williams at the beginning of May, 2006. I wrote a long post about it at the time. At the end of the day, as we were leaving, a very pretty woman came up and he introduced her as his girlfriend. They seemed really happy. [More...]

I wrote so many posts last week like this one about Ohio and the rural vote, both from a historical perspective and for this year. I feel vindicated -- here's a new AP article today that explains how well Hillary did in the Ohio rural vote, how it was her intentional strategy, how John Kerry failed to go after it or win it, and more.

Bottom line: The Dems can take Ohio in November. But not without that rural vote, which went astonishingly for Hillary.

Decades have passed since Ohio last saw a competitive Democratic primary, and the interest showed in a record turnout of 48 percent of registered voters.

Clinton still garnered more interest than Kerry in his primary four years ago. Where she won 81 percent of the vote in Scioto County, Kerry got 55 percent in his 2004 primary. Where she got 80 percent of the vote in Jackson County, Kerry got 64 percent. Where Clinton got 78 percent of the vote in Lawrence County, Kerry got 59 percent.

This is what Hillary did in her New York Senate races. Howard Wolfson says it's been her strategy in all the primary races. [More...]

Rasmussen has updated its electoral college map of how each of the 50 states should go in November.

It moves Tennessee into the "safely Republican" category but says that has no effect on the total. Including the "leaning states,"

Democrats [are]leading in states with 284 Electoral College Votes. Republicans are favored in states with 229 Votes.

Here are the toss-up states:

Eight states with 97 Electoral Votes are either a pure Toss-Up or just slightly leaning to one party or the other. These are likely to be the early battleground states of Election 2008: Florida (27), Ohio (20), Virginia (13), Missouri (11), Colorado (9), Iowa (7), Nevada (5), and New Mexico (5).

Anyone want to weigh in on the significance or lack of significance of Rasmussen's new map?

Final Update: 100% now in, Teton went for Obama, final delegate count, Obama 187.5, Hillary 129.5, Uncommitted 2.

Update: Obama wins Sheridan, only Teton left, and that should go to Obama as well.

Update: Last five caucus results now coming in. Hillary wins Weston County. Obama won Big Horn and Johnson. Only Sheridan and Teton are left. The delegate count is now at 160 for Obama, 116 for Hillary, 2 uncommitted. Again, these are delegates to the state convention to be held in late May. CNN now projects Obama to win. Sheridan has 18 delegates and Teton has 17. The caucus ends at 6pm MT in Sheridan. (A 4 hour caucus?)

Update: I think I've found the answer as to why the race hasn't been called by CNN, thanks to McJoan and Pocket Nines at Daily Kos. Four counties start caucusing in 5 minutes at 2:00 pm MT. One starts at 3pm. That's it for me, I'm willing to call Wyoming an Obama win.

Official Wyoming caucus results will be here. They will also appear on CNN's page here. [More...]

The Chicago Tribune today reports that more states are considering lowering the drinking age to 18 or 19. Discussions have been taking place in Vermont, New Hampshire, Missouri, South Carolina and Wisconsin.

Here's a graphic of where the states stood in 1984 before the feds passed a law requiring the age to be 21.

When I turned 18 (in New York)the drinking age was 18. It seemed ridiculous to me that the states raised it. Here's more. What do you think? Take our poll below.

By Big Tent Democrat

Via Sargent, Newsweek finds Dems divided on what the Super Delegates should do:

But Ras has this:

In the craziness of the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, it is possible that one candidate might finish the Primary Season with the most pledged delegates while another could end up with the most popular votes. If that happens, . . . [a]mong Democratic voters, 59% believe the candidate with the most popular votes deserves the nomination.

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only.

This Ras poll of Mississippi, which holds a primary on Tuesday, is startling and sobering:

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only

So we are celebrating "democracy" in Wyoming today. The "will of the people?" Not hardly. Another travesty of the Democratic Party.

Do you know that if 8,000 voters come out in Wyoming today to select their 13 delegates that means that 615 Wyomingians will be selecting a delegate to our national convention (8000 divided by 13.) By contrast, when 4.4 million Californians voted in their primary, they selected 370 delegates, which is to say 1 delegate for every 11,892 Californian who voted.

The will of the people? Please never mention that phrase again when discussing the pledged delegate count.

By Big Tent Democrat

Here is the transcript of the Carville (a Clinton supporter) v. Wilhelm (an Obama supporter) discussion of funding and holding redo primaries in Michigan and Florida. As you can see, Wilhelm is utterly on the defensive and Carville is relishing the role of urging counting the votes. This dynamic will dominate this issue. The key parts of the transcript on the flip:

As expected, President Bush today vetoed the bill banning water boarding.

"This is no time for Congress to abandon practices that have a proven track record of keeping America safe," the president said.

beating, electrocuting, burning, using dogs... stripping detainees [or] forcing them to perform or mimic sexual acts

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only.

Via Jerome Armstrong, Donna Brazile is at it again, this time arguing against do-over primaries AND seating the Michigan delegation in a March 7 column:

With two-thirds of the primary contests already completed, the DNC cannot allow the Florida and Michigan delegates to decide the nomination. It would be wrong. And it would be dangerous.

. . . I suggest that these two states avoid any "do-over" contests. The voters have spoken. While Obama may not like the results in Michigan, where his name didn't appear on the ballot, I have a hard time ignoring the Florida results, where his name did. More important, a do-over would send a terrible message to states already thinking about moving their primary or caucus forward in 2012 or, heaven forbid, 2011. After all, the reason the party came down hard last year was to avoid a primary being held before the winter holidays.