By Big Tent Democrat

Wolcott. This is an Open Thread.

Note - Comments are now closed. A note of thanks to Flyerhawk for being a very good sport while we picked on him. Note to all of us, we should not have done that.

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only

. . . the following?

Clinton loses among men by five points or more in 43 states. Clinton does better with women than men in every state, with the biggest gender gap of 31 points in Colorado.

And if it is not, why would it then be racist to point out that Obama does much better with African Americans and Clinton does much better with whites, as Chris Bowers does, and as I did this morning?

Space Shuttle Endeavor lifts off Tuesday.

In a little reported difference between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama that was highlighted Friday in Wyoming , Obama said he proposes cutting NASA's budget to fund things like education, while Hillary has a plan to strengthen it.

2:40 p.m. A question about the space program is next. “Why are you pitting the space program against education?”

Obama says he wants to defer the program “because we’re not producing enough engineers to support the space program.” He said he grew up in the ‘60s and remembered the days when the space program captured the public’s imagination.

Including his. “I grew up on Star Trek,” he said. “I believe in the Final Frontier.”

Another reporter had more:

By Big Tent Democrat

Kevin Drum has an interesting post about when, if ever, attacks by a candidate in a primary contest was used by the opposing Party's candidate in the general election. But I am going to focus on what is at the root of the question - will any attacks by Clinton or Obama be used by McCain in the general election - not the substance of the attacks, which would come no matter what - but the fact that the primary opponent attacked on that issue. .

Three come to mind for me - one, Hillary Clinton's attack on Obama experience and Commander in Chief credentials. That one seems sure to surface in a McCain campaign against Obama. Two, Obama's attack on Hillary Clinton's health care plan mandates - the Harry and Louise stuff arguing Hillary will force you to buy health insurance even if you can not afford it. Three, Obama's attacks on Hillary Clinton's character, the "she'll say anything to get elected" stuff. This is why I have been highly critical of these three lines of attack.

Can you folks think of any others?

Can anyone tell what Barack Obama will agree to and won't agree to in terms of a Michigan and Florida re-vote? Here's the latest. The comments on Big Tent Democrat's earlier post are full, this is a new thread on it.

The AP reports a consensus is being reached about a mail-in do-over vote in Florida and Michigan. Where is Obama on this? Will he agree?

Were Michigan voters really excluded? Here's the map of how Michigan voted. It looks like about 675,000 Dems voted. In 2004, about 150,000 Dems voted in the MI primary.

It was widely circulated in Michigan that Obama and Edwards supporters should vote uncommitted. Clearly, Detroit and Washtenaw County got the message (see the map.) So did Emmet county, which by the way, went 60% to Bush in the general election. It's not clear who Emmet s votes were for. Hillary's supporters came out. How much support does Obama have in MI outside of Detroit and Washtenaw county?

Both candidates have to agree to any new plan. If Obama withholds consent, does he raise the chances the delegates from the first votes will get seated in time to count?

There are new articles today in the Dallas News and the Cleveland Plain Dealer on the Republican cross-over vote (Dems for a Day)and whether it had any effect on the outcome. Some Obama supporters would have you believe that it was of such significance as to result in Obama's loss in those states.

In Ohio, the article says there were 16,000 cross-over votes in Cuyahoga County (Cleveland.) The article talks about Rush Limbaugh urging Republicans to vote for Hillary, but of those interviewed in the article, one Republican voted for Hillary and one for Obama. They had different opinions on who would be better able to beat McCain. Obama won by 23,000 votes in Cuyahoga. Effect of the cross-over vote on the election: none shown and it's not even determinable which candidate they voted for.

In an opinion piece, the co-author of the Dallas News article, Wayne Slater, shows how the effect was negligible on Hillary's Texas win. [More...]

In 2004, the Democratic ticket carried 20 states with 252 electoral votes. Obviously, it wasn't enough. What other states are most likely to play a role in 2008? Which of the Democratic candidates would be the Party's most successful candidate in the general election?

William Arnone, a long-time Democratic Party activist who worked with Robert F. Kennedy in 1967-68 has updated his July, 2007 and February, 2008 analysis (reprinted here) of "Key States in the 2008 Presidential Election."

The ten states are: Arkansas; Colorado; Florida; Iowa; Missouri; Nevada; New Mexico; North Carolina; Ohio; and Virginia.

With his permission, I reprint below his newest analysis, received yesterday, which also includes a thorough discussion of whether the Dems will keep Pennsylvania:

By Big Tent Democrat

Watching ABC This Week, George Stepanopoulos's show, George and his panel fully understand and explain two things: one, that Hillary Clinton is ready and eager to do revotes in Florida and Michigan and Barack Obama will try and squirm his way out of them and; two, that there has to be a unity ticket, Clinton-Obama or Obama-Clinton. They also properly said that not only will there be pressure on the nominee to pick the other as the VP candidate, there will be pressure on the "not nominee" to accept the VP slot. Exactly right imo.

Face The Nation discusses Michigan and Florida at the top of its broadcast. Howard Dean on to discuss it. Dean says the "rules will be followed" but speaks encouragingly about a revote. Particularly about a mail in primary. Even says it is a "great party building exercise." Discusses raising money for funding it. Bill Nelson coming up. I'll update on the flip.

This is an Open Thread.

By Big Tent Democrat

According to the latest Rasmussen poll, Barack Obama has a 14 point lead in Mississippi, 53-39. But because of the demographic disparity, Obama leads by enormous margins among African-Americans and trails by enormous margins among white voters, Obama is likely to suffer, at best, a repeat of what happened in Alabama, a virtual tie in the delegate count.

Because Alabama voted on Super Tuesday, the strange and troubling Alabama result flew under the radar. On Tuesday, Mississippi votes alone and its results will receive full coverage. A review of the Alabama result is instructive. Obama won the state by a very comfortable 56-42 margin in the popular vote. But he barely won the delegate count, 27-25, and in fact only tied Clinton in the congressional district delegate count.

How could that happen? Well, since, like Mississippi, Alabama has a majority-minority district, most of Obama's African American support was to be found in that congressional district. He also won the AL-3 district by a thin margin, because that district included two strong counties for Obama, Macon, heavily African-American and near Montgomery, and Lee, where Auburn University is located. Obama won the delegate count in CD-7 and CD-3, 5-2 and 3-2. But he lost most other congressional districts in Alabama and won no others. I expect he will lose all but Bennie Thompson's 7 delegate congressional district in Mississippi. And that is a bad result for Obama, because the other 3 Mississippi Congressional districts are 5 delegate districts, insuring AT LEAST a 3-2 split for Clinton.

More . . .

By Big Tent Democrat

(Original Post here.)

Yesterday, Barack Obama won Wyoming by 2,000 votes of 8600 cast. He gained a 2 (and with the add on delegate to be added later likely 3) delegates to his pledged delegate lead. Last Tuesday, Hillary Clinton won Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island, while Barack Obama won Vermont. The difference in the popular vote that day was was 334,000 in favor of Hillary Clinton, as she garnered 2.84 million votes to Obama's 2.51 million. We are told that Hillary gained a net 4 delegates that night.

This is because Ohioans choose one pledged delegate for every 15,000 Ohioans voting, Texans choose one pledged delegate for every 22,373 persons voting, Rhode Islanders choose one pledged delegate for every 8800 persons voting and Vermonters choose one pledged delegate for every 10,066 persons voting. By contrast, Wyomingians choose one pledged delegate for every 725 persons voting (not counting the add on delegate.)

The Democratic nomination system is institutionalized vote dilution. It is undemocratic. It is a travesty. It is no way to pick a nominee. The will of the people is reflected in the POPULAR VOTE, not the pledged delegate count.

More . . .

Four not to miss, and I'm just getting started:

• The New York Times: Obama in Senate: Star Power, Minor Role. I've read another article like this in the past few days but didn't write about it because the person critical of Obama was a Republican. This one has some meat from Democrats on page 3.

• The Washington Post: Influential Democrats Waiting to Choose Sides. The Post does a survey of undeclared superdelegates, finding most will wait until the primaries are over. And 100 votes or so difference is no big deal. They'll exercise their independent function not just vote the way the voters do. Why have them if that's their only purpose? Some, like Sen. Salazar of Colorado, say the decision will based on which candidate can better bring it home for the Dems in their state in November.

• The Washington Post: Philadelphia Mayor's Endorsement Suddenly Matters: Philly's African American Mayor explains why he's staying with Hillary. When asked about Philly being 45% African American, after noting he won both the black and white vote, he said:

  "We feel a certain sense of freedom and progressiveness here," Nutter said of the City of Brotherly Love. "The notion that all black people vote one way has to be destroyed."

More...

The Washington Post reports on today's Wyomining caucuses:

With 100 percent of the vote in, Obama won 61 percent to 38 percent for Clinton. The victory netted Obama just two delegates (7 for Obama, 5 for Clinton).

The win was expected, as Obama has dominated most of the small-state caucuses during the nomination fight.

His 59 percent of the vote -- if it holds -- would be slightly under the sorts of vote totals Obama wracked up in caucuses in places like Alaska (74 percent), Kansas (70 percent), North Dakota (61 percent) and Idaho (79.5 percent). Of the remaining nine states left to vote, none will hold caucuses.

So, two delegates, a lesser margin than in several other of his caucus wins and there are no caucuses left. I doubt it will sway any superdelegates.