however, in all this discussion one salient point has been overlooked: no democrat is going to win mississippi in nov., primary victories notwithstanding.

clinton has the clear advantage, in terms of the popular vote, given her demographics. sen. obama would be lucky to pick up just the AA votes in the deep south.

like it or not, those are facts in states like mississippi, alabama, georgia.

Also, the black population is not concentrated in MS like it is in AL. True, they only have one majority-minority district, but all the other districts have at least one of their main cities with a black majority or a close split.

Further, MS is a deep red state with an open primary and no GOP race to speak of. It'll be interesting to see if Republican acrimony for the Clintons can outweigh their inherent racism. After all, they may figure that there is no way the country will elect a black man, and so casting a vote against Clinton is a safe bet. You never know how somebody's twisted logic will work.

Last, District 1 has Ole Miss, District 2 is majority black, District 3 has State, and District 4 has Southern Miss. If Obama can get a high turnout from the colleges combined with a huge turnout from blacks, he could carry each district more comfortably than imagined.

I know he doesn't get but 10% of the white vote, and that is not only sad it's troubling for his chances. But he is leading in a dominant fashion in the polls, and that is with a dismal white vote. If turnout increases significantly, it could offset that.

If a Democrat wants to win in the general election, they will need to rely on the African-American vote. The Clinton's once loved within the African-American community are now disliked because of their increasingly vicious negative campaign.  

This speech will probably be one of the most important speeches he will give in his life IMO.  It may be only second to the 2004 Dem convention one.

It is important because it will set the tone for Obama's campaigning in Pennsylvania.  Listen carefully to his speech.  That speech will tell whether he has re-tooled his "hope and change" speech to one that speaks to the heart of the blue-collar worker.  It will tell whether Obama plans to fight like crazy to win Pennsylvania or re-treat and downplay Pennsylvania.

I say the best thing that Obama can do for himself is if he looks like he is fighting HARD for Pennsylvania and trying to win this state even if he doesn't win it.  He has to make that state CLOSE as possible.

One of the differences between Hillary and Obama towards the end of the Ohio primary was that she looked like she was fighting for it while Obama looked like he was doing prevent defense, just hanging on waiting out the clock.  Late-deciding voters voted for who they thought fought harder and wanted it more.

Thus in that Mississippi victory speech we will know if Obama is going to be fighting for Pennsylvania on Hillary's turf which is the economy.

The media reported Texas as a win for Clinton due despite a very narrow popular vote win, and delegate loss.  The focus in terms of the narrative will be on the win in terms of who "wins" the contest.

Even if the delegates are shared out,  it will be another state down and Hillary's task to overtake him on the Pledged delegate count becoming ever harder.

Mississippi would be a "moral" victory or a victory in name only for BO.  But he will still have vast resources to continue, and campaigning in MS will not have "cost" him irrevocably.

No one is going to be shocked that there is a huge racial divide in MS.  Some people will talk about it but they will dance around the issues because the media really doesn't want to point that MS is a racist state.

The south usually goes for the GOP in the general as we know. There are a few states that go differently sometimes. Florida for one. A candidates "home" state for another if they have a southern connection. And then a couple of states that are getting bluer, Virginia and North Carolina are the main examples.

I think Hillary could take Arkansas as her "home" state. I think both Virginia and North Carolina could have gone democratic this time around with a candidate like Edwards. That is, a white southern democrat. I don't think Obama can win those states, no matter who his VP is. I think Clinton actually has a chance at both with the right VP. Namely, you guessed it, Edwards, or someone like him. This is a pessimistic, saddening opinion for me to give, but that's what I think.

I think Florida, though it can be quite different, will be very much the same as VA and NC. I don't think Obama has any chance whereas Hillary has some chance with the right VP again.

So what does that leave us with an Obama win. The usual battle ignoring the south again. That means OH and PA and a couple other states will decide the election.

I live live in St. Louis but my husband is from New Orleans. We have a home on the Mississippi gulf coast (Bill was in our town yesterday yeah!).  As Democrats we are definitely in the minority, particularly in Ms.  In New Orleans you will get a lot of Obama supporters but go beyond the Crescent City, it is hard to find someone who admits to being a Dem.

It's worse in MIssissippi even on the coast, which is much more "liberal" than the rest of the state.  They do elect Gene Taylor, a Democrat, every two years to the House because he is conservative, grew up in Bay St. Louis and has lots of friends and family there.  But he is an exception.  

People in Mississippi just assume you are a Republican.  Even my somewhat liberal minded mother-in-law maintained that she was a Republican because she needed to get along with her neighbors (these are small, small communities down there along the Gulf).

Had he not done so, I don't think he would be viable for the nomination today.

Don't get me wrong, it was a brilliant winning stategy to win the Primary in the deep south and collect all those pledged delegates, but it may stand in the way of his winning the GE ...

I think everyone underestimates the power of Race - both positive and negative -in this race (no pun intended) at their peril.

It will also be the 31st state he has won (including Texas).  He has the most states, the most delegates, the most popular votes, the most money, the most individual contributors, the most new voters, and the most Independents and moderate Republicans.

But... it's Mississippi.  I don't see how the media reports this as a failure to win White voters; that wasn't their story when the vote in Louisiana was similarly skewed, because... it's Louisiana.