By Big Tent Democrat

Conservative Philly radio talk show host Michael Smerconish (he is on MSNBC a lot and is buddies with Tweety I think) has endorsed Barack Obama. I suppose this is good for Obama but it does make me scratch my head:

I'm still a Republican, and while I won't have a vote in the battle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, like everyone else, I have an opinion as to the better of the two. It's Obama. I've watched virtually all the Democratic debates. Spent time reading the policy papers. Read each of their memoirs. There are few discernible differences between the two on the issues (she wants an individual mandate on health care; he's more anxious to leave Iraq). Each offers a similarly liberal agenda that will cause me angst in the fall.

But right now, one is more focused on an issue of paramount concern to me - the failure to avenge the deaths of innocent Americans by bringing Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri to justice. And that's Obama.

(Emphasis supplied.) Has Obama been talking a lot about bin Laden and al-Zawahiri lately? I guess I missed that. Anyway, FWIW.

So does Bruce Springsteen.

By Big Tent Democrat

PPP has Barack Obama leading by 3 in Pennsylvania. To call this an outlier is an understatement. It is the only poll that has Obama ahead. PPP seems intent on making a name for itself in Pennsylvania, one way or another.

More . . .

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only

Josh Marshall ridicules MoDo for having kind words for Hillary:

You know she's got it bad when she has the bit so firmly in her teeth that she even finds herself saying good things about Hillary.

Indeed, I doubt we will ever again see the day when Josh Marshall has a kind word for Hillary. The lack of self awareness is truly astonishing. Is he not aware that he is now on the frontlines of the Hillary Hating blogs?

By Big Tent Democrat

Obama supporter Publius writes (see also yep, Josh Marshall putting up his hands to cover the sun:

Other bloggers have, however, made the logical jump that Judis leaves largely to implication. I usually leave linking to "Big Tent" Democrat to John Cole, but here's what he said over at TalkLeft (unclear though whether he was talking only for him):

Obama can not win beer track white working class voters, women, seniors or Latinos. This is why Hillary is more electable in PA, OH, FL and MI.

Florida, perhaps, but both Clinton and Obama will have struggles in the other states versus McCain. More to the point, the fact that Clinton is preferred to Obama among this bloc of voters within a Democratic primary is not strong evidence that she'll do significantly better versus McCain in the general.

I should be glad I suppose to get the "Florida perhaps" concession. But I am struck by the strange argument, I have heard it before, that how a candidate does in a primary with a demographic has absolutely no predictive power as to how a candidate will do in the general election with that demographic. Imagine this argument in reverse - Obama will not do better than Clinton in turning out and getting African Americans to vote for him in a general election. Or college educated white males. Or the vaunted "youth vote." If I wrote that I would rightly be ridiculed by these same "Creative Class" bloggers. But let's set aside the obvious unsoundness of Publius' argument. Let's look at polls on the flip.

At a hearing in Texas today, Thomas McGowan will be freed from a Dallas prison after serving 23 years for a rape and burglary DNA has proven he didn't commit.

McGowan will be the 25th person in Texas to have been convicted of a crime based on faulty eyewitness testimony and later exonerated by DNA testing.

Thomas McGowan was in his mid-20s when he was arrested, and he’ll turn 50 later this year. He has lost nearly his entire adult life to a wrongful conviction that could have – and should have – been prevented,” said Barry Scheck, Co-Director of the Innocence Project, which is affiliated with Cardozo School of Law. “This is the 25th case in Texas where DNA proved that eyewitness identification was incorrect. How many more people need to lose years or decades of their lives before the state implements simple reforms that are proven to make eyewitness identification more accurate?”

The Innocence Project has much more on the case.

In Michigan, 29 year old Nathanial Hackett has been freed after serving 12 years for a rape DNA testing as shown he did not commit. His conviction was based in part upon a coerced false confession.

Kennedy v. Louisiana, an important and closely followed case is being argued today in the Supreme Court: Can the death penalty be imposed as a punishment for child rape, if the child isn't murdered.

Colorado is considering such a law and I outlined the reasons against it here. I agree with this law review article (pdf)that:

First, there is a strong national consensus against imposing the death penalty for child rape. In addition, the death penalty is a disproportionate punishment for the crime of rape, regardless of the age of the victim, because it does not cause death. Moreover, imposing the death penalty for child rape would fail to serve, and would likely inhibit, the retribution and deterrence functions of the U.S. penal system.

The Sex Crimes blog has a full resource page devoted to the Kennedy case. Also check out Dahlia Lathwick in Newsweek, The Supreme Penalty for Rape.

The Scotus Wiki page for the case with briefs and synopsis and other links is here.

There aren't too many silver linings for Hillary Clinton in this ABC News/Washington Post national poll. (Full poll results here, pdf., Washington Post article on it is here.)

The poll, out today, is a national one. It finds Democrats believe Obama should win the nomination and is more electable in November.

The silver lining: The views of those polled on superdelegates:

Only 13 percent of Democrats say superdelegates should support whoever’s won the most regular delegates in primaries and caucuses – a count in which Obama’s ahead, and seemingly likely to stay so. Instead a plurality, 46 percent, say superdelegates should support the candidate who’s won the most popular votes, a tally in which Clinton still has hopes. And 37 percent say superdelegates should go with their own sense of which candidate they think is best.

In other words, if Hillary does well in the remaining states, and she should, at least in PA, Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico, a whopping 87% of those polled don't think it's a problem for superdelegates to vote according to either the popular vote total or their conscience instead of by the pledged delegate total.

More...

24 hotspots in and around Denver have been selected by the DNC to host the Sunday night parties for the delegates at the August Convention.

Illinois's delegates will hold a party at the Denver Art Museum. New York's delegates get the Pinnacle Club at the Downtown Grand Hyatt. Florida and Michigan get zip -- because their delegates have been stripped as a penalty for holding their primaries early,

What about Colorado's delegates? Their party will be held at the Governor's mansion.

Here's an interactive map showing all 24 party venues and the hotels that will house the various state delegations.

The late night video is Glenn Frey: Party Town, 1982. This is an open thread. Party on.

Speaking at a meeting of the Newspaper Association of America in Pennsylvania today, Hillary Clinton outlined the agenda, if elected, for her first 100 days in office:

Clinton’s prospective 100-day agenda included the start of a troop withdrawal from Iraq and submitting a budget to Congress that rolls back some of President Bush’s tax cuts.

She also promised to “shut down Guantanamo” and “disavow torture,” as well as sign bills Bush has vetoed to expand federal embryonic stem-cell research and broaden government-supported health care to millions of lower-income children who now go without.

She said:

In short, starting from day one, the Bush-Cheney era will be over in name and in practice.

More...

I caught the intro to Countdown with Keith Olbermann announcing that Obama's ahead in Indiana and Hillary's lead is gone in PA.

I changed the channel. Is it too much to ask that cable news and talk show hosts like Olbermann at least fairly report the news before they put their spin on it? How could he not mention the multiple dueling polls?

Starting yesterday, Big Tent Democrat and I catalogued every poll (other than daily trackers) in the states yet to vote regardless of results. First the results, then our analysis. We didn't cherry pick and report only those we agree with or that favor one candidate or the other. Examples:

• The LA Times/Bloomberg Poll on PA, Indiana and NC (Hillary by 5, Obama by 5, Obama by 13 respectively)
• Survey USA: KY (Clinton up by 36)
• Survey USA PA: Clinton Up By 14
• Quinnipiac and Rasmussen PA: Clinton Up By 6 and 9, respectively.

More...

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only

Got to have a little fun with our friends at daily kos who now tell us some states do not actually matter:

There's never been any reason to expect Obama to do well in Appalachia, so even if Clinton hangs around through Kentucky, a big win there won't mean much either in delegates gained or in creating a perception of momentum.

(Emphasis supplied.) For the record, I do not think any Dem has a chance in Kentucky or MS, GA, AL, AZ, TX, ID, UT, WY, ND, etc. But I do find it rich that the Big Orange now tells us it is ok to say some states do not matter.

No surprise here -- the D.C. Madam was convicted today on all counts. The Government asked she go directly to jail, the Judge said no and allowed her to remain on bond pending sentencing.

Another secret revealed: What Rob Lowe's nanny is really claiming: he groped her. The cross-complaint the nanny filed, through her lawyer, who else but Gloria Allred, is here.
Unless she has a videotape, it sounds like a bunch of he said - she said to me. Most of the claims are labor law related -- Allred says the nanny was an employee not an independent contractor and because the Lowes employed more than 5 people, the nanny was entitled things like 30 minute meal breaks and she didn't get them, as well as other legal protections. Lots of sexual harassment allegations, none involving sex. She also wants damages because Mrs. Lowe walked around naked.

More...