Exit Polls: Thread One

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:05:53 PM EST
Tags: Indiana '08, North Carolina '08 (all tags)

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Update: First polls in Indiana close in 4 minutes. I'll start a new thread.

Update: CNN exit polls: Liberal Dems are going for Obama, conservative for Dems for Hillary.

Update: 200,000 new voters in Indiana. No voting problems. Economy is most important issue, 54% of them going for Clinton. North Carolina: No voting problems. Dem. Party Chair Jerry Meek says Obama will win by single digits.

Update: CNN: Hillary's support among African American voters in both states in single digits. She's getting 8% in Indiana and 6% in North Carolina. ABC report on early exit polls here.

Fox has the exit polls in hand. I'll live blog: Working class vote: In both states they are going for Hillary. Indiana, 65% white voters no college for Hillary, 34% for Obama. NC 67% of this group for Hillary.

More....

Rev. Wright: 48% in both states say Rev. Wright say is very important or somewhat important and huge margins of those went for Hillary.

Economy: Most in both states say the economy is their top issue. Hillary got most of them in Indiana, Obama got more of them in North Carolina.

Update: First AP exit poll results for both states here.

****

The networks just got the exit polls. They are crunching the numbers. We'll have them here, please add the ones you hear in comments. Taggard Goddard says not to pay too much attention to them.

Fox reports the rural vote in Indiana is less than expected, and the vote in Indianapolis and Gary is high. On the other side, Republicans are turning out in bigger numbers than expected.

Obama is now saying Indiana will be close.

North Carolina is having a record turnout with 153,000 newly registered African American voters.

Lanny Davis says they don't expect to win North Carolina but it's closer than they thought. On Indiana, he says not saying. No predictions. The anchor tells Lanny he sounds reluctant (he does0 and asks if there is a reason. He says he's always trepidatious on primary days.

(BTD) If the Indiana exit polls are accurate, Indiana had a higher African American vote than anticipated which means Obama comes closer in Indiana. In North Carolina, African American turnout is somewhat lower than anticipated, which is favorable to Clinton.

Comments now closed, BTD has a new exit poll thread up.

< Afternoon Predictions: Thread Two | First Polls Close in Indiana: Early Returns >

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Exit Polls: Thread One | 200 comments (200 topical)

Won't there be an uptick of voting (5.00 / 1) (#3)
by madamab on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:08:35 PM EST

after work?

yes there will (5.00 / 2) (#7)
by Jeralyn on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:10:14 PM EST

or so Hillary is hoping.


: 7 in IN and 7:30 in NC (5.00 / 1) (#18)
by nycstray on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:14:46 PM EST

or vise versa, lol!~

: I assume there must be a time lag in the exits (none / 0) (#195)
by fuzzyone on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:26:51 PM EST

They can't be instantaneous so these could be from a couple of hours ago. Anyone know more about how the timing works?

Early exit polls in PA (5.00 / 2) (#4)
by americanincanada on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:08:52 PM EST

Had Obama winning...

Nope (none / 0) (#6)
by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:09:52 PM EST

Had a 4 pt spread in favor of Clinton.


No (none / 0) (#12)
by Shawn on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:12:57 PM EST

Some did have Obama ahead.


It turned out that Drudge was right (none / 0) (#19)
by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:15:24 PM EST

because the first exits that CNN put up had Hillary just over 50%.


: Hillary got 68% of white NC! (none / 0) (#200)
by Josey on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:45:18 PM EST

CBS (I think)
Wasn't 65% the must number?

Chuck Todd thinks (5.00 / 1) (#8)
by bjorn on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:10:47 PM EST

IN will be called right away, and NC within an hour after the polls close. He said the votes will mostly be counted in IN when the polls close.

Then they must (5.00 / 1) (#27)
by americanincanada on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:18:10 PM EST

be expecting a clear Clinton win in Indiana and a not so clear Obama win in NC.


: I thought the same thing (5.00 / 1) (#29)
by bjorn on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:19:23 PM EST

but for some reason he implied it would be because they have a mechanism to count the votes faster in IN

Will rural voters vote after work? (5.00 / 1) (#9)
by ineedalife on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:11:04 PM EST

Maybe they are lower because they will be voting on the way home?

Great minds think alike! (5.00 / 2) (#17)
by stefystef on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:14:36 PM EST

I just posted the same thing!!! : ) Isn't that cool?

The rural will be BIG after 5pm in BOTH NC and IN.

Go Hillary Go!!!


I hope so! (none / 0) (#10)
by bjorn on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:11:49 PM EST

No evening polling places open -- (none / 0) (#21)
by Cream City on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:15:47 PM EST

but maybe rural voters start work early and still have time after work before polls close at 6.


Fox has a little thingy up that says (none / 0) (#32)
by nycstray on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:20:37 PM EST

next poll closes in 1:41 which would be 7PM ET, don't know what time it is in IN, but it would be crazy to close polls at 6pm, wouldn't it?


Crazy but true: 6 p.m. in IN (none / 0) (#38)
by Cream City on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:23:46 PM EST

althoygh it might be an hour later in part of IN, as I think it still is in two time zones -- with part refusing to do daylight savings time.


2 time zones? (none / 0) (#45)
by nycstray on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:26:42 PM EST

lol!~ yeah, let's make this even more fun :D I forgot about that and never quite understood it.


Remember the West Wing episode (none / 0) (#99)
by kredwyn on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:43:28 PM EST

where Toby and Josh got stranded?

Indiana.


UGH! (none / 0) (#108)
by BDB on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:47:04 PM EST

Hated that episode. It's the one where they looked out on the fields and said that "soy" grew there instead of soy beans. Because that's what is grown, soy beans, not soy.


: But but but... (none / 0) (#158)
by kredwyn on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:02:02 PM EST

Josh is from CT and Toby's a New Yorker.
Totally those two were fish out of water...and proved it at every turn.

I *think* that all of Indiana - (none / 0) (#51)
by liminal on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:27:35 PM EST

- has now finally given in to daylight savings time. However, it's my understanding that the state is divided between eastern and central time in a totally weird, zig-zaggy line for reasons that are not entirely clear. NPR had a story about time zone weirdness in Indiana the other night.


: Correct, as of 2005; thanks (none / 0) (#177)
by Cream City on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:10:12 PM EST

but because of still being in two time zones, a source says, "telling time in Indiana remains something of a bewildering experience: 18 counties now observe Central Daylight Time and the remaining 74 counties of Indiana observe Eastern Daylight Time." So the eastern Chicago area, a strong Obama area, won't begin to come in until an hour later.

Indiana has been like this for a while... (none / 0) (#46)
by OrangeFur on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:26:59 PM EST

They're almost always among the first states to be called on general election day, for the Republican.


Maybe turnout not as overwhelming this morning (5.00 / 1) (#14)
by stefystef on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:13:38 PM EST

perhaps bigger this evening when people come home from work.

http://www.wral.com/news/local/politics/story/2835547/

I still predict that Hillary will win NC by a small margin. I feel the rural vote, which most reporters ignore, will come out for her in full force.

As in Indiana. While there is some talk of lower turnout in the rural areas, I believe people will come out this evening to vote before closing because they are coming after work.

Go Hillary Go!!!

: No evening polls; look up hours (nt) (none / 0) (#22)
by Cream City on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:16:14 PM EST

: But (none / 0) (#25)
by nell on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:17:03 PM EST

I worry because don't the polls close at 6...if people get off work at 5, it doesn't leave them much time to get to the polls...I am surprised they don't stay open until 7...
She has a great organization in Indiana, though, so I am trying not to worry too much...

NC (5.00 / 2) (#30)
by Cal on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:19:25 PM EST

She is going to surprise.

Tweety and company (5.00 / 1) (#33)
by bjorn on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:20:56 PM EST

expecting big win for Obama in NC, saying she will only get 10% of AA vote.

Well, since I'm naturally pessimistic... (5.00 / 1) (#41)
by OrangeFur on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:24:43 PM EST

... that puts a bit of a damper on things.

But we'll see what the voters themselves said soon enough...

50% of Clinton voters in both states won't (5.00 / 1) (#50)
by Teresa on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:27:34 PM EST

vote for Obama. We have a lot of healing to do. They didn't have the Obama voters number yet (CNN).

new data...interesting and worrisome (5.00 / 1) (#52)
by americanincanada on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:27:45 PM EST

mccain would get 33 percent of Hill voters and 17 percent would not vote if Obama is nominee

Indiana

38% Mccain
12% not vote
if Obama on ticket

calling all SDs PAY ATTENTION (none / 0) (#54)
by bjorn on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:29:38 PM EST

pay attention to what? (1.00 / 1) (#101)
by progrocks on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:44:13 PM EST

that Hillary voters are not real democrats and therefore they are the ones that should be catered too? The go with us for go f--- yourself argument is not one that wins many arguments. If that many Hillary voters want to see Roe v Wade overturned, 100 years in Iraq and numerous other atrocities rather than vote for Obama, congrats on running such a great and uplifting campaign!


Um (5.00 / 1) (#109)
by dissenter on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:47:08 PM EST

I don't think it was Hillary that thought Roberts was A OK until it was pointed out that he would ruin presidential ambitions. You are OTT


Gee, it's not like the Obama supporters (5.00 / 2) (#116)
by nycstray on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:49:59 PM EST

haven't been issuing threats. That's all you hear about, his poor supporters with hurt feelings if she wins . . .


Your post had just the right combination (5.00 / 2) (#138)
by tree on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:56:07 PM EST

of insults, condescension and fear-mongering to encapsulate everything that is so annoying about SOME Obama supporters' arguments. In case you missed it, your post was just another a "go f--- yourself argument".

You are right about one thing though. It doesn't win over anyone.


: I couldn't have said it better- (none / 0) (#184)
by kimsaw on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:17:42 PM EST

I Guess The Obama Supporters Who Said They (5.00 / 0) (#147)
by MO Blue on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:58:22 PM EST

would leave the party if Obama is not the nominee, aren't real Democrats either. They evidently don't seem to care about Roe v Wade, 100 years in Iraq and numerous other atrocities.


Way to reunite those Reagan Dems! (5.00 / 0) (#170)
by Salo on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:06:19 PM EST

hoo haaa.


Gun Boat Diplomacy (5.00 / 0) (#176)
by txpolitico67 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:09:42 PM EST

goes over as well with me as a lead balloon. Obama had no problem pulling the lever for Justice Roberts and his catering to far-right wing pastors like McClurkin who are so rabidly anti-gay doesn't make me clamor for him. At all.

If Obama wins the nom and loses the election its because of his OWN failure to lure voters.

Election, democracy, voters....that pesky combo.


This is (none / 0) (#57)
by Ga6thDem on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:31:04 PM EST

typical of everywhere. And "party healing" probably isn't going to cut it. Obama's had months to sell Hillary voters and he hasn't even tried.


BINGO!! (5.00 / 0) (#63)
by Edgar08 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:34:44 PM EST

Problem is, he has nothing to sell in that regard.

A lot of people just aren't going to vote for a question mark with a neat speech over a known entity.


Ihad to laugh at dean (none / 0) (#75)
by Salo on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:37:53 PM EST

saying he was the reason his voters generally decided to go with Kerry after he dropped out.

The Clinton voters are probably not sheep.

At this point there's less evidence to expect these voters are going to de party true...and more to suggest they will vote on political experience.


Well (none / 0) (#86)
by Steve M on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:40:41 PM EST

It really does make a difference, especially among voters who are new to politics and may not have a lot of institutional loyalty to the Democratic brand beyond their liking for a particular candidate.


That deosn't (5.00 / 1) (#115)
by Salo on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:49:32 PM EST

describe her voters.

I wonder to what extent they may see Obama's peeps as a hostile takeover from a fringe.


: Well (5.00 / 2) (#124)
by Steve M on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:51:39 PM EST

I do not personally dwell in the fantasyland where Barack Obama is the only candidate who inspires new voters.

the reason (none / 0) (#113)
by Capt Howdy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:48:58 PM EST

is named W


: That was my reason. n/t (none / 0) (#128)
by nycstray on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:53:15 PM EST

Yes but.. (none / 0) (#59)
by ineedalife on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:32:52 PM EST

30% of the voters were indies and Republicans.


And another yes, but.... (5.00 / 1) (#74)
by tree on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:37:47 PM EST

According to SUSA's last Indiana poll, Clinton's lead among Democrats was 19 points, her lead among Republicans was only 3, and she trailed among Independents by 6. Chances are its not because the Independents and Republicans that exit polls are skewing toward the "50% won't vote for Obama" among the Clinton voters.


The difference b/w NC and IN (5.00 / 1) (#111)
by RedSox04 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:47:35 PM EST

was shocking, I thought, as far as the "will vote for the other candidate".

NC, where Republicans can't cross over, had a pretty stark difference between Obama voters saying they'd vote for Hillary vs. not.

For Obama voters, if Hillary is the nominee, who will you vote for?

IN: 59% Hillary, 21% stay home, 17% McCain
NC: 70% Hillary, 14% stay home, 12% McCain

For Clinton voters, the #s in IN and NC were pretty much the same: about 50% said they'd vote Obama, 33% said McCain, and 17% said stay home.

The fact that IN vs. NC was so disparate for Obama supporters seems to suggest that (once again), Obama benefited pretty strongly from crossover Republicans and Indies.


so we're looking at yet another (none / 0) (#127)
by oldnorthstate on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:52:57 PM EST

race where republicans are voting in a democratic primary against hillary. unreal. close those puppies up and hillary has the nomination locked up months ago.


: On Morning Joe (5.00 / 0) (#149)
by Kathy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:59:00 PM EST

(wherein Joe, no kidding, said, "Why are you so wonderful?" as his last question to her) she said that if we did this the way the repubs did, with winner take all, she would've wrapped up the nom ages ago.
I'm glad to hear she's making this point. It's all about the EC.

65% working class for Clinton (5.00 / 1) (#60)
by nycstray on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:33:23 PM EST

in IN and 67% for Clinton in NC

Fox just reported this.

Wow (none / 0) (#61)
by Ga6thDem on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:34:16 PM EST

Bad numbers for Obama.


Not if it's just working class whites (none / 0) (#66)
by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:35:53 PM EST

Actually it is bad for him (none / 0) (#82)
by nycstray on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:39:11 PM EST

he can't win the GE without them can he? And women . . . and . . . lol!~

He's targeted them in PA, IN and NC. He needs to show some results. Remember, he's still outspending her etc. And he didn't go bowling this time ;)


: It will matter less if he wins (none / 0) (#88)
by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:40:53 PM EST

General Election Poison. (none / 0) (#95)
by Salo on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:42:33 PM EST

GEP.

He can't keep up this fraud if he gets clobbered in these demos.


Economy 54% Clinton IN (none / 0) (#68)
by nycstray on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:36:47 PM EST

52% Obama NC.


That sounds encouraging (none / 0) (#64)
by Lil on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:35:35 PM EST

creeping towards 70%. Certainly over the bottom line of 60%.


There are other white people than (5.00 / 1) (#67)
by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:36:29 PM EST

working class, I'm afraid.


Yeah (5.00 / 1) (#72)
by Ga6thDem on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:37:43 PM EST

it means more in IN than NC imo.


I'm listening to andgarden (none / 0) (#80)
by kmblue on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:39:07 PM EST

he knows his stuff.


are there no working class blacks? (none / 0) (#97)
by jackyt on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:43:20 PM EST

We are assuming 90% of blacks vote (5.00 / 1) (#125)
by Salo on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:52:10 PM EST

for Obama. The metric on Obama is simply how many blacks turn out. His vote is more or less predictable once you know HOW MANY blacks came out to vote. This is a statistical analysis--not polite discussion.


: My problem with this is that it works in (none / 0) (#160)
by Florida Resident on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:02:33 PM EST

Democratic primaries were AA vote compose a large section of the vote (30% >). Coupled with about 35-40% of white votes you end up with a probable Obama victory if there is a large AA turnout. In the GE AA vote is not nearly as decisive so you have to have a better general demographic appeal. This was reflected in mini scenarios in those Democratic primaries were the AA vote did not compromise such a large block of the total vote, Ohio, Pa, NJ, NY, Mass, Ca, etc. My opinion of course.

Working Class Whites? (none / 0) (#71)
by BDB on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:37:23 PM EST

Or all working class voters?


I Don't See Obama Getting Enough Of This (none / 0) (#83)
by MO Blue on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:39:25 PM EST

demographic back if he is the nominee no matter how hard the Clintons campaign for him.


Fox reports...Working class (5.00 / 1) (#65)
by vicsan on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:35:37 PM EST

and Rev. Wright issue.....exit poll = 64% Indiana for Hillary. 67% NC for Hillary. This is the white working class, I do believe.

Hillary's going to win this thing...in both states.

Don't get my hopes up (5.00 / 1) (#70)
by Emma on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:37:19 PM EST

Exit polls are evil, evil I tell you!!! Stop!! But I can't tear myself away. Gah!!!!!


: I know. I know. (none / 0) (#105)
by vicsan on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:46:15 PM EST

I can't help myself. I remember in PA. we were told to ignore the exit polls because people LIE. I'm ignoring them. I'll pay attention when the returns start.

Wow (5.00 / 2) (#73)
by americanincanada on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:37:44 PM EST

White no college degree

IndianaHRC 65% Obama 34%

NC
HRC 67% Obama 26%

Indiana, 30% say Wright very important.

NC, 33% say Wright very important

That is shocking. (5.00 / 2) (#84)
by Salo on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:39:41 PM EST

65% of the white working class vote?

This is gonna be dramatic.


Not to go against my credo (5.00 / 2) (#98)
by Kathy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:43:25 PM EST

that I only believe statistics and polls that support my candidate, but I am sitting here wondering how they determine whether someone is working class. Is that self-reported, or do they guess, or what?

I got called on a phone survey last week (I know, I was so excited!) and of course I lied about my education (I'm ABD, so why not?) and when they asked, "how would you describe yourself: caucasian, african american, etc..." I chose, "other," because, like most people, at my core, I want to think that I'm special.


: I've wondered that, too. (5.00 / 1) (#142)
by Marco21 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:57:00 PM EST

I make pretty good money - more than double my father did (not adjusting for inflation) and he and my mom paid for 4 kids.
Still, I mostly live paycheck to paycheck. Some between pay periods offer a bigger cushion than others.
I think I am working class. Others think I am just classy. F-in A! :)

: And you are, Kathy (5.00 / 1) (#146)
by katiebird on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:57:42 PM EST

Very Special.

: if you work... (none / 0) (#141)
by jackyt on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:56:58 PM EST

you're working class, no?
(but maybe not if you ENJOY working)

I wonder (none / 0) (#87)
by kmblue on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:40:51 PM EST

what Wright is doing right now.


on line with travelocity? (5.00 / 1) (#92)
by Capt Howdy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:42:07 PM EST

: LOL (none / 0) (#117)
by kmblue on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:50:03 PM EST

you kill me, Captain!

If 67 % holds (none / 0) (#126)
by AnninCA on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:52:28 PM EST

that is super close to BTD's 70% requirement for a win.

Too early......I can't get excited yet. LOL*


Not really (5.00 / 1) (#137)
by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:55:42 PM EST

Because the universe of white voters is LARGER than just the working class.


That's Just Working Class Whites (5.00 / 1) (#140)
by BDB on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:56:48 PM EST

Not affluent whites that are more likely to vote Obama.


It's a reasonable measure (none / 0) (#165)
by Salo on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:04:14 PM EST

of what's going on. Most wealthy people are GOP.


: I've always (none / 0) (#194)
by PlayInPeoria on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:25:25 PM EST

told people I'm not rich enough to be a Republican.
I'm white collar worker with college degree and my hubby is blue collar with HS deploma.. we are both middle class. He is American Indian and I'm mixed. I don't know how they could classify us?!?!

AA turnout in NC (5.00 / 1) (#76)
by zebedee on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:37:56 PM EST

I think I read that 25% had already voted early and were 40% AA. If AAs are "about a third" in AP exit polls report that makes it around 35% overall, roughly as expected

Wolf Blitzer's Two cents (5.00 / 4) (#79)
by Chimster on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:38:22 PM EST

I like what Blitzer had to say about the remainder of the primary race:

"Michigan already has a state-wide primary scheduled for August 5 for local and state elections. Florida has a similar state-wide primary scheduled for August 26, the second day of the Democratic convention in Denver. Why not let the two states add a Hillary Clinton-Barack Obama election to the ballots for those two primaries?"

I believe this solution could provide a more definitive answer as to who our nominee will be. The opposition to this would likely claim "It's not fair to count FL and MI because they broke the rules". That's a debate I'm looking forward to.

Um, (5.00 / 1) (#89)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:41:09 PM EST

Because, Mr. Blitzer, the DNC wants Obama to win.

This has been my stupid answer to stupid questions.


I dont see how they can stop this (none / 0) (#90)
by Capt Howdy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:41:19 PM EST

: *hehe (none / 0) (#136)
by AnninCA on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:55:09 PM EST

That's a big yeppers! :)
If Guam gets to vote, by dang it, so will FL and MI!

MI seems like a no brainer (none / 0) (#203)
by fuzzyone on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:33:23 PM EST

Why not just add their names. How has this not been mentioned before? The FL one seems more problematic since its during the convention, but counting FL has always seemed less problematic to me since Obama was on the ballot. Could be the making of a reasonable compromise. Not that reason ever seems to win out.


David Schuster is stating repeatedly... (5.00 / 2) (#93)
by Dawn Davenport on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:42:09 PM EST

...that there's been "record Republican turnout" in IN; he seems to be pushing the "Operation Chaos" meme.

And with Matthews saying MI and FL "bore me to death" it's time for me to switch to CNN.

: are there any (5.00 / 1) (#107)
by Kathy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:46:32 PM EST

contested repub races in IN? NC has a big one in the gubernatorial race. Hotly contested, and Wright came into play vis-a-vis advertising.
I love that repubs who become dems for a day are just moved by Obama love while repubs who vote Clinton are evil Limbaugh-following freaks.

: Well, there's more than prez on the ballot (nt) (none / 0) (#129)
by Cream City on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:53:25 PM EST

could I just say (5.00 / 1) (#155)
by Capt Howdy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:00:57 PM EST

Talk Left is doing an awsum job today.
thanks

Yikes (5.00 / 0) (#174)
by americanincanada on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:08:20 PM EST

Those numbers of white men and seniors do not bode well for Obama at all. it will also make any win on the backs of AA voters in NC very suspect for the GE.

I loved that clip of Bill (5.00 / 0) (#181)
by stillife on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:13:33 PM EST

saying she "doesn't have any quit in her" and she's got more lives than a cat.

I'm nervous! It's gonna be a long night.

That southern way of talking (none / 0) (#191)
by catfish on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:22:51 PM EST

wish it was teachable skill. But would sound phony with a California accent.


: This is why I don't do phone calls (5.00 / 1) (#196)
by stillife on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:31:03 PM EST

for Hillary. I'm horrible on the phone, plus my accent is a combination of flat Midwestern and NYC.

Sorry everybody. It appears Hillary will lose big (1.00 / 0) (#189)
by dugan49 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:21:16 PM EST

in NC. The only exit polling you need is a 90%+ figure for Obama. Blacks are roughly one third of the Democratic vote. With 90% of blacks with Obama, all he need is 40% of the TOTAL white vote to have a 12+ victory.

It appears Hillary loses NC big, and we will all just have to make the best of it.

What about uneducated white women? (1.00 / 1) (#193)
by fiver5 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:25:09 PM EST

Surely they can be counted on to support Clinton. There's lots of them, and they watch tons of TV.


If blacks are 33% of the NC voters, and (1.00 / 0) (#197)
by dugan49 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:31:11 PM EST

90% of them vote Obama, Clinton would need 70% of ALL whites to win, that includes men, women, seniors, college kids. 70% of the entire white vote. White women cannot carry the day this time. It appears she will go down big in NC, the demographics have taken hold of this election.


Looks like (none / 0) (#199)
by americanincanada on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:44:29 PM EST

her white working class vote is certainly approaching that 70% number. 67% wasn't it?

Also, early exit polls are usually wrong. Not to mention that people lie.


: She would need (none / 0) (#201)
by dugan49 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:51:24 PM EST

70% of all white votes to win, not just working class. A 10+ loss is much more likely. It could even be bigger. The polls that showed it close were based on a 75-80% black vote for Obama, not the 90+ it has turned out to be.

Early exit polls (none / 0) (#1)
by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:06:42 PM EST

I do not trust.

Are You Sticking With Your Morning Predictions (none / 0) (#15)
by MO Blue on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:13:43 PM EST

or has anything you heard today changed your mind?


If the reports about turnout are right, (5.00 / 1) (#23)
by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:16:16 PM EST

and as BTD observed they rarely are, it will be a bad night for Hillary.


I have a bad feeling andgarden. (5.00 / 1) (#28)
by Teresa on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:19:21 PM EST

Of course, I've been doom and gloom since mid-February, but low turnout in rural Indiana will be a killer.


: Betting against turnout (5.00 / 1) (#31)
by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:20:31 PM EST

has not been wise yet this season. So we'll see.

Turnout will affect mine (none / 0) (#24)
by waldenpond on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:17:00 PM EST

I didn't realize the polls closed this early in IN. In CA we stay open late. If turnout is low in the rural areas, Obama had the early vote (really?) and turnout is up in areas favorable to Obama, I would add another 3 to 4 pts to my spread. Looks like Obama could be moving to 15.


Obama (none / 0) (#2)
by Ga6thDem on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:07:40 PM EST

has always said it's going to be close. He said the same thing about PA.

Early exit polls always favor Obama. You just have to wait until the votes start coming in.

lanny (none / 0) (#5)
by DJ on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:09:51 PM EST

looked down on fox

Too funny (none / 0) (#16)
by waldenpond on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:14:33 PM EST

I was just relaying Lanny Davis on Fox on the other post. I changed the channel when an Obama supporter came on.

: Can't listen to Obama anymore (none / 0) (#20)
by stefystef on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:15:41 PM EST

His droning voice is really starting to get to me now.
His followers (some, not all) get to be a little nauseating too.
So you are not alone in your feelings.

Hardball acting (as usual) as though it is over (none / 0) (#26)
by kenosharick on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:17:57 PM EST

for Hillary- even going so far as to say she will probably drop out by the end of the week if she does not win both- which is nearly impossible.

: If that's what they said then you (5.00 / 2) (#35)
by tree on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:21:47 PM EST

can take it to the bank that they think she won in Indiana.

: Gloria and Joe Klein both said last (5.00 / 1) (#37)
by Teresa on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:22:23 PM EST

night on Anderson Cooper that she had to win both states really big to stay in. Along with Roland, Anderson had such a balanced panel. :)

Early voting (none / 0) (#34)
by Emma on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:21:18 PM EST

Didn't they have early voting in IN, too? I know for a fact they did, actually. Any numbers on that?

Also, HRC gets good support in absentee ballots.

Exit poll info (none / 0) (#36)
by americanincanada on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:21:56 PM EST

Though there is nothing in here that talks of rural turnout.

If the economy is biggest issue (none / 0) (#39)
by bjorn on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:24:07 PM EST

shouldn't that favor Clinton?


also if AA turnout is (none / 0) (#42)
by bjorn on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:25:01 PM EST

30% of vote in NC not good for Obama, didn't they expect up to 40% or does exit polling not include the early ballots?


: AA turnout (none / 0) (#48)
by CST on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:27:06 PM EST

Exit polling does not include early voting. So 30% will probably go up a bit. Also, I think the expectation was 35% but I am not sure...

: Saying AA turnout is (none / 0) (#62)
by americanincanada on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:34:16 PM EST

1/3 in NC. That is lower than expected, yes?
Also, how many AA voters would be honest with exit poll people if they voted for clinton and had family or friends with them?

Those exit polls (none / 0) (#40)
by dissenter on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:24:13 PM EST

Don't look so bad for her demographically anyway.


Very vague though (none / 0) (#56)
by ineedalife on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:30:46 PM EST

I know these aren't weighted so they have to be vague but "over 50%" women can mean anything. 51% is death for Clinton, 58% is party-time.


: 58-59% (5.00 / 1) (#77)
by Kathy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:38:05 PM EST

has been the norm.
Hold the party, though. Andgarden is making me nervous. I hate when he makes me nervous.

The hardball crew are nearly giddy (none / 0) (#43)
by kenosharick on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:25:08 PM EST

and that worries me very much. I am pessimistic by nature and if this party,MY PARTY, gives the nom to a sure loser after the last 8 years, I say the heck with em. I will write in Hillary.

They seemed happy before PA too (5.00 / 2) (#44)
by bjorn on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:26:38 PM EST

so I wouldn't read too much into it..they just get off on talking about OBama regardless of results.


: True (5.00 / 1) (#55)
by Ga6thDem on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:29:43 PM EST

when the cities were coming in first they we all talking about is was close. Then when more came in they changed their story.

They know Obama (5.00 / 1) (#53)
by Salo on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:28:33 PM EST

will win NC so they will crow about that.

It's a while since he's won a big deal.


they were giddy (5.00 / 1) (#81)
by jackyt on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:39:08 PM EST

before New Hampshire reported, too.


I wonder what the backwoods ... (none / 0) (#47)
by Salo on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:27:01 PM EST

...campaign is going to accomplish.

anything?

Exit polls went out on a limb (none / 0) (#49)
by honora on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:27:13 PM EST

They predict a majority of the voters are women. That prediction is worth of Zogby.

It's going to be a (none / 0) (#58)
by txpolitico67 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:31:36 PM EST

L-O-N-G night. I don't put much behind exit polls because people aren't always forthcoming with information.

I don't have cable. And it's May sweeps, so no election coverage on free tv. guess i will be parked here all night.

54% Hillary 45% Obama in Indiana (none / 0) (#69)
by vicsan on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:37:16 PM EST

on economy being important. Just the opposite in NC...

Wow (none / 0) (#78)
by Steve M on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:38:13 PM EST

In New Hampshire, where everyone is white and Clinton barely won, she won non-college degree folks by only 8%.

: Times have changed (none / 0) (#134)
by eric on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:54:47 PM EST

I don't think that'd happen today.

when do the polls close? (none / 0) (#85)
by Capt Howdy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:40:30 PM EST

6 pm for IN (none / 0) (#96)
by Dawn Davenport on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:43:02 PM EST

and either 7:30 or 8 in NC, I think.


: thanks (none / 0) (#106)
by Capt Howdy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:46:29 PM EST

need to cut out early today.

Large # of voters saying economy #1 issue (none / 0) (#91)
by RedSox04 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:41:21 PM EST

Probably a bad sign for Obama, I would guess.

Those voters have previously gone overwhelmingly Hillary, and I don't think there's been any changes in the dynamic (in fact, I think the gas debate has probably exacerbated this dynamic).

HuffingtonPost (none / 0) (#94)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:42:28 PM EST

(FWIW)

....apparently has Obama +12 in NC, Hillary +7 in Indianna.

I don't think the others' exit polls bear that dream out, but I could be wrong.

No link. I heard the information 2nd hand via MyDD

Well, Obama tends to underperform (none / 0) (#100)
by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:43:53 PM EST

the exits. So if that's right, Hillary will have a good night.


Don't you (none / 0) (#103)
by Ga6thDem on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:45:01 PM EST

mean overperform as in "exit polls always show him with a higher number".


Maybe (5.00 / 1) (#143)
by kredwyn on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:57:18 PM EST

sorry...couldn't help it given the subject lines of the other two responses :)

(am watching my students take a final exam)


yes (none / 0) (#119)
by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:50:47 PM EST

: Actually no (none / 0) (#148)
by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:58:30 PM EST

It means that he underperforms compared to the exit polls.

No (none / 0) (#120)
by DaveOinSF on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:50:53 PM EST

He underperforms the exit polls. He overperforms IN the exit polls.


I know (none / 0) (#104)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:45:13 PM EST

My husband says add +5 to Hillary's in both cases. He's a mondo-dreamer, but I think you're right. This is a good sign for Hillary.


It's all guesswork until the votes are counted (none / 0) (#102)
by Jim J on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:44:52 PM EST

surely we've all learned that by now.


were the exit polls not pretty misleading (none / 0) (#110)
by Capt Howdy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:47:25 PM EST

the last time?

IN, 14% AA says CNN. Also says Clinton (none / 0) (#112)
by Teresa on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:48:26 PM EST

only getting 8% of that and only 6% in NC.

what about NC (5.00 / 1) (#121)
by Capt Howdy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:50:55 PM EST

they were saying upwards of 30%


: They didn't say yet. (none / 0) (#144)
by Teresa on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:57:20 PM EST

If it holds (5.00 / 1) (#123)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:51:18 PM EST

This seems to contradict the polling I saw (none / 0) (#114)
by Dawn Davenport on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:49:02 PM EST

from the AP:

About one in seven voters in Indiana and slightly fewer in North Carolina were under age 30; about a quarter in North Carolina and somewhat fewer in Indiana were over age 65.

I mentioned yesterday the polls seemed to over-weight younger voters and under-weight older ones.

Add + 7 to early exit polls in Hillary's favor (none / 0) (#118)
by BigB on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:50:04 PM EST

Base don the work of pollster.com where in earlier races the early exit polls overstated Obama's support, we should add +7 to Hillary's tally.

This would suggest a double digit win in Indiana for Hillary and a single digit loss in North Carolina.

Well (5.00 / 1) (#130)
by Steve M on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:53:31 PM EST

Just be sure you don't say "double digit" when it's really 9.4291573482.


It will be more than 10 points (5.00 / 1) (#161)
by BigB on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:02:42 PM EST

In Indiana Hilalry will win by more than 10 points if she is up 5 points in early exit polls.


: damn (5.00 / 1) (#169)
by Capt Howdy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:05:31 PM EST

should have stuck with this mornings win by 12

You're more of a dreamer (none / 0) (#131)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:53:39 PM EST

than my husband!


: No! early exits always favor Obama (none / 0) (#156)
by BigB on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:01:08 PM EST

see the link below:
http://news.nationaljournal.com/articles/mysterypollster/2008/030708.htm
" The errors show a clear if not perfectly consistent pattern: The early leaked results overestimated Obama's strength in 18 of 20 states, for an average error of 7 percentage points on the margin. "

I think early results (none / 0) (#122)
by AnninCA on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:51:08 PM EST

will be in the cities.

I heard the vote is splitting dramatically along Catholic/other lines. Catholics make up 18% of Indiana.

How many catholics in NC? (none / 0) (#135)
by vicsan on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:55:00 PM EST

Do you know? Hillary does well with the Catholic vote.


: 5? (none / 0) (#152)
by oldnorthstate on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:00:31 PM EST

maybe 6 total catholics in nc. iow, not many

ABC exits are very different from what CNN (none / 0) (#132)
by Teresa on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:53:43 PM EST

had on how many would be satisfied with the other. They said over 60% compared to 48% from CNN.

I still believe (none / 0) (#133)
by americanincanada on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:53:54 PM EST

voters lie to pollers.

: So do I (none / 0) (#154)
by AnninCA on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:00:33 PM EST

Drudge Says Obama Is An Easy Winner (none / 0) (#139)
by dugan49 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:56:33 PM EST

in N.C. I couldn't find any details on his site just now though.

: I believe it (none / 0) (#163)
by nell on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:03:16 PM EST

but drudge also said after PA that Obama would win by 4 percent...

aren't any people (none / 0) (#145)
by americanincanada on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:57:38 PM EST

giving an exact percentage prediction based on early exit polls basically guessing based on their own view of the demographics?

How can Huffpo say Obama WILL WIN NC by 12%?

: Because (none / 0) (#150)
by dissenter on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:59:22 PM EST

They are HuffPo. They can say anything with a straight face and pass it off as fact

: Who knows (none / 0) (#153)
by MaryGM on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:00:33 PM EST

How can they say a lot of the things they say in articles/reports they post on a daily basis? I'd take their "results" with as big a grain of salt as I do their "reporting."

I predict that Obama's AA turnout will (none / 0) (#151)
by oldnorthstate on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:59:34 PM EST

shatter all predictions.

So far (none / 0) (#157)
by Ga6thDem on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:02:02 PM EST

it's not looking that way. At least in NC. However, getting over 90% of the AA vote doesn't seem like a winning argument for a general election.


: Cannot deny reality of identity politics (5.00 / 0) (#188)
by nell on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:21:06 PM EST

Your comment denies the reality of identity politics. Obama cannot be expected to carry white women anymore than Clinton can be expected African Americans. There are identity politics at play here, and it is foolish for people to deny that. Both Hillary and Bill have been very involved in civil rights issues, as well as bread and butter issues that are important to African American voters. And yet, 90 percent or greater are voting for Obama. Are you really going to argue that there is no identity politics at play? I am not saying there is anything wrong with that, I recognize that there are identity politics at play for Clinton and the white women's vote, though not 90 percent strong. And if you want to talk about whether or not the African American community perceives the Clintons as being racist, please, let us talk about that, because I have not forgotten Obama's race baiting memo from SC in which his campaign disgustingly played the race card.
And if you are worried about Clinton getting the African American vote in the GE, you better worry about Obama getting the white women's vote in the GE as well. Though he carries a larger share of the AA vote, there are more white women who voted for Clinton given the demographic realities of our country.
This game is not one sided.

It's one of the things I predicted (none / 0) (#164)
by Edgar08 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:04:12 PM EST

AAs will not have any problem at all dealing with what Obama did to Rev. Wright, which doesn't mean they agree with what he did with Rev. Wright, it means that they know full well what he had to do remain politically viable.


: Of course (5.00 / 0) (#179)
by Salo on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:12:05 PM EST

Obama will eventually cut them loose too...So that he can get enough white suurban votes to come in at 45% in the General election.
The self abnegation is astonishing.

58 percent white men for Hillary in IN (none / 0) (#159)
by Dawn Davenport on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:02:30 PM EST

and 71 percent of seniors, according to Fox

Brit Hume Fox reports (none / 0) (#162)
by vicsan on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:02:57 PM EST

exit polls for Indiana... issue: white men...58% Hillary 42% Obama

71% seniors Hillary I missed the Obama number....it was low :)

: and I think I heard 54 percent white men in NC (none / 0) (#168)
by Dawn Davenport on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:05:10 PM EST

for Clinton.

: issue: white men (none / 0) (#171)
by Kathy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:06:24 PM EST

well, yeah!

: FYI (none / 0) (#183)
by Steve M on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:16:29 PM EST

In Missouri, a very close race, Clinton won white males by 14.

NC Brit Hume Fox (none / 0) (#166)
by vicsan on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:04:45 PM EST

NC...black vote 1 in AA...Obama getting 91%

white men....54% Clinton 40% Obama

college educated... 55% Obama 42% Clinton

Wasn't he winning (none / 0) (#175)
by Salo on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:08:32 PM EST

teh white southern vote in Virginia and some other places?

Can we conclude that's now a lost struggle for him?


I do believe he did win the white (none / 0) (#182)
by vicsan on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:14:39 PM EST

vote in Virginia and elsewhere. My sister lives in Virginia and voted for him. She's now on my enemies list.:) Just thinking about her vote makes my head explode.

I think it's safe to say, Mr. Obama has lost the white vote working class, seniors and women. What's left? The AA and college educated? What is the % of those 2 groups in the Democratic Party?


: I'm so ashamed of the educated class, (5.00 / 0) (#185)
by MarkL on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:18:07 PM EST

falling for the hope-a-dope.

Here we go! (none / 0) (#167)
by AnninCA on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:04:56 PM EST

Polls closed. Now, remember.....early results are Obama's.

they're not reporting for another hour... (none / 0) (#172)
by Dawn Davenport on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:06:27 PM EST

because some of IN is CDT, not EDT.


: OK.... (none / 0) (#187)
by AnninCA on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:20:26 PM EST

That makes sense.

Her AA support alarmingly low (none / 0) (#173)
by catfish on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:08:16 PM EST

given that some AAs are women. Is it the state or have AAs turned against her with time due to perceived racism?

People lie. (5.00 / 0) (#178)
by Kathy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:10:44 PM EST

I know--I'm a person, and I lie, too.


Especially exit polls (5.00 / 0) (#186)
by stillife on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:18:59 PM EST

if I were an AA voter, I wouldn't necessary admit to voting for Clinton.

Am I grasping at straws?


Ah! Pressure on John Lewis (none / 0) (#190)
by catfish on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:21:16 PM EST

They only talk about "Bradley effect." Well what about the "John Lewis effect" - peer pressure?


Well (none / 0) (#192)
by Steve M on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:25:03 PM EST

that's not just true among AA voters. People are more reluctant to admit that they're not voting for the "popular" choice.

I'm convinced this was what happened with the exit polls in 2004 - people didn't like getting ridiculed for voting for Bush, so they just kept their mouths shut.


: Thought of that - the reverse Hillary effect (none / 0) (#198)
by catfish on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:36:42 PM EST

Nobody talks about that either.

7:25 pm EDT (none / 0) (#202)
by kateNC on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:24:51 PM EST

IN 12% reporting
58% Clinton
42% Obama

45% Male
55% Female
Age;
     17-29    16%
    30-44    24%
    45-59    34%
    60+    26%

Exit Polls: Thread One

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