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Exit Polls: Thread One

Update: First polls in Indiana close in 4 minutes. I'll start a new thread.

Update: CNN exit polls: Liberal Dems are going for Obama, conservative for Dems for Hillary.

Update: 200,000 new voters in Indiana. No voting problems. Economy is most important issue, 54% of them going for Clinton. North Carolina: No voting problems. Dem. Party Chair Jerry Meek says Obama will win by single digits.

Update: CNN: Hillary's support among African American voters in both states in single digits. She's getting 8% in Indiana and 6% in North Carolina. ABC report on early exit polls here.

Fox has the exit polls in hand. I'll live blog: Working class vote: In both states they are going for Hillary. Indiana, 65% white voters no college for Hillary, 34% for Obama. NC 67% of this group for Hillary.

More....

Rev. Wright: 48% in both states say Rev. Wright say is very important or somewhat important and huge margins of those went for Hillary.

Economy: Most in both states say the economy is their top issue. Hillary got most of them in Indiana, Obama got more of them in North Carolina.

Update: First AP exit poll results for both states here.

****

The networks just got the exit polls. They are crunching the numbers. We'll have them here, please add the ones you hear in comments. Taggard Goddard says not to pay too much attention to them.

Fox reports the rural vote in Indiana is less than expected, and the vote in Indianapolis and Gary is high. On the other side, Republicans are turning out in bigger numbers than expected.

Obama is now saying Indiana will be close.

North Carolina is having a record turnout with 153,000 newly registered African American voters.

Lanny Davis says they don't expect to win North Carolina but it's closer than they thought. On Indiana, he says not saying. No predictions. The anchor tells Lanny he sounds reluctant (he does0 and asks if there is a reason. He says he's always trepidatious on primary days.

(BTD) If the Indiana exit polls are accurate, Indiana had a higher African American vote than anticipated which means Obama comes closer in Indiana. In North Carolina, African American turnout is somewhat lower than anticipated, which is favorable to Clinton.

Comments now closed, BTD has a new exit poll thread up.

< Afternoon Predictions: Thread Two | First Polls Close in Indiana: Early Returns >
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  • Display: Sort:
    Won't there be an uptick of voting (5.00 / 1) (#3)
    by madamab on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:08:35 PM EST
    after work?

    yes there will (5.00 / 2) (#7)
    by Jeralyn on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:10:14 PM EST
    or so Hillary is hoping.

    [ Parent ]
    Polls are only open (5.00 / 1) (#11)
    by Dalton Hoffine on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:11:54 PM EST
    Another hour, which means that this after-work vote might be negligible, right? I'm a little worried about that for Hillary. It seems like IN's polls close earlier than most.

    [ Parent ]
    7 in IN and 7:30 in NC (5.00 / 1) (#18)
    by nycstray on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:14:46 PM EST
    or vise versa, lol!~

    [ Parent ]
    I assume there must be a time lag in the exits (none / 0) (#195)
    by fuzzyone on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:26:51 PM EST
    They can't be instantaneous so these could be from a couple of hours ago.  Anyone know more about how the timing works?

    [ Parent ]
    Early exit polls in PA (5.00 / 2) (#4)
    by americanincanada on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:08:52 PM EST
    Had Obama winning...

    Nope (none / 0) (#6)
    by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:09:52 PM EST
    Had a 4 pt spread in favor of Clinton.

    [ Parent ]
    No (none / 0) (#12)
    by Shawn on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:12:57 PM EST
    Some did have Obama ahead.

    [ Parent ]
    It turned out that Drudge was right (none / 0) (#19)
    by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:15:24 PM EST
    because the first exits that CNN put up had Hillary just over 50%.

    [ Parent ]
    Hillary got 68% of white NC! (none / 0) (#200)
    by Josey on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:45:18 PM EST
    CBS (I think)
    Wasn't 65% the must number?


    [ Parent ]
    Chuck Todd thinks (5.00 / 1) (#8)
    by bjorn on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:10:47 PM EST
    IN will be called right away, and NC within an hour after the polls close.  He said the votes will mostly be counted in IN when the polls close.

    Then they must (5.00 / 1) (#27)
    by americanincanada on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:18:10 PM EST
    be expecting a clear Clinton win in Indiana and a not so clear Obama win in NC.

    [ Parent ]
    I thought the same thing (5.00 / 1) (#29)
    by bjorn on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:19:23 PM EST
    but for some reason he implied it would be because they have a mechanism to count the votes faster in IN

    [ Parent ]
    Will rural voters vote after work? (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by ineedalife on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:11:04 PM EST
    Maybe they are lower because they will be voting on the way home?

    Great minds think alike! (5.00 / 2) (#17)
    by stefystef on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:14:36 PM EST
    I just posted the same thing!!! : )  Isn't that cool?  

    The rural will be BIG after 5pm in BOTH NC and IN.

    Go Hillary Go!!!

    [ Parent ]

    I hope so! (none / 0) (#10)
    by bjorn on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:11:49 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Polls (none / 0) (#13)
    by Dalton Hoffine on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:13:29 PM EST
    Seem like they're only open for just a little while longer, as opposed to 7 local time in most states. Here though, they're only open 'til 5 CST

    [ Parent ]
    No evening polling places open -- (none / 0) (#21)
    by Cream City on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:15:47 PM EST
    but maybe rural voters start work early and still have time after work before polls close at 6.

    [ Parent ]
    Fox has a little thingy up that says (none / 0) (#32)
    by nycstray on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:20:37 PM EST
    next poll closes in 1:41 which would be 7PM ET, don't know what time it is in IN, but it would be crazy to close polls at 6pm, wouldn't it?

    [ Parent ]
    Crazy but true: 6 p.m. in IN (none / 0) (#38)
    by Cream City on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:23:46 PM EST
    althoygh it might be an hour later in part of IN, as I think it still is in two time zones -- with part refusing to do daylight savings time.

    [ Parent ]
    2 time zones? (none / 0) (#45)
    by nycstray on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:26:42 PM EST
    lol!~ yeah, let's make this even more fun :D I forgot about that and never quite understood it.

    [ Parent ]
    Remember the West Wing episode (none / 0) (#99)
    by kredwyn on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:43:28 PM EST
    where Toby and Josh got stranded?

    Indiana.

    [ Parent ]

    UGH! (none / 0) (#108)
    by BDB on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:47:04 PM EST
    Hated that episode.  It's the one where they looked out on the fields and said that "soy" grew there instead of soy beans.  Because that's what is grown, soy beans, not soy.

    [ Parent ]
    But but but... (none / 0) (#158)
    by kredwyn on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:02:02 PM EST
    Josh is from CT and Toby's a New Yorker.

    Totally those two were fish out of water...and proved it at every turn.

    [ Parent ]

    I *think* that all of Indiana - (none / 0) (#51)
    by liminal on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:27:35 PM EST
    - has now finally given in to daylight savings time.  However, it's my understanding that the state is divided between eastern and central time in a totally weird, zig-zaggy line for reasons that are not entirely clear.  NPR had a story about time zone weirdness in Indiana the other night.

    [ Parent ]
    Correct, as of 2005; thanks (none / 0) (#177)
    by Cream City on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:10:12 PM EST
    but because of still being in two time zones, a source says, "telling time in Indiana remains something of a bewildering experience: 18 counties now observe Central Daylight Time and the remaining 74 counties of Indiana observe Eastern Daylight Time."  So the eastern Chicago area, a strong Obama area, won't begin to come in until an hour later.

    [ Parent ]
    Indiana has been like this for a while... (none / 0) (#46)
    by OrangeFur on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:26:59 PM EST
    They're almost always among the first states to be called on general election day, for the Republican.

    [ Parent ]
    Maybe turnout not as overwhelming this morning (5.00 / 1) (#14)
    by stefystef on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:13:38 PM EST
    perhaps bigger this evening when people come home from work.

    http://www.wral.com/news/local/politics/story/2835547/

    I still predict that Hillary will win NC by a small margin.  I feel the rural vote, which most reporters ignore, will come out for her in full force.

    As in Indiana.  While there is some talk of lower turnout in the rural areas, I believe people will come out this evening to vote before closing because they are coming after work.

    Go Hillary Go!!!

    No evening polls; look up hours (nt) (none / 0) (#22)
    by Cream City on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:16:14 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    But (none / 0) (#25)
    by nell on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:17:03 PM EST
    I worry because don't the polls close at 6...if people get off work at 5, it doesn't leave them much time to get to the polls...I am surprised they don't stay open until 7...

    She has a great organization in Indiana, though, so I am trying not to worry too much...

    [ Parent ]

    NC (5.00 / 2) (#30)
    by Cal on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:19:25 PM EST
    She is going to surprise.

    Tweety and company (5.00 / 1) (#33)
    by bjorn on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:20:56 PM EST
    expecting big win for Obama in NC, saying she will only get 10% of AA vote.

    Well, since I'm naturally pessimistic... (5.00 / 1) (#41)
    by OrangeFur on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:24:43 PM EST
    ... that puts a bit of a damper on things.

    But we'll see what the voters themselves said soon enough...

    50% of Clinton voters in both states won't (5.00 / 1) (#50)
    by Teresa on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:27:34 PM EST
    vote for Obama. We have a lot of healing to do. They didn't have the Obama voters number yet (CNN).

    new data...interesting and worrisome (5.00 / 1) (#52)
    by americanincanada on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:27:45 PM EST
    mccain would get 33 percent of Hill voters and 17 percent would not vote if Obama is nominee

    Indiana

    38% Mccain
    12% not vote
    if Obama on ticket

    calling all SDs PAY ATTENTION (none / 0) (#54)
    by bjorn on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:29:38 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    pay attention to what? (1.00 / 1) (#101)
    by progrocks on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:44:13 PM EST
    that Hillary voters are not real democrats and therefore they are the ones that should be catered too? The go with us for go f--- yourself argument is not one that wins many arguments. If that many Hillary voters want to see Roe v Wade overturned, 100 years in Iraq and numerous other atrocities rather than vote for Obama, congrats on running such a great and uplifting campaign!

    [ Parent ]
    Um (5.00 / 1) (#109)
    by dissenter on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:47:08 PM EST
    I don't think it was Hillary that thought Roberts was A OK until it was pointed out that he would ruin  presidential ambitions. You are OTT

    [ Parent ]
    Gee, it's not like the Obama supporters (5.00 / 2) (#116)
    by nycstray on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:49:59 PM EST
    haven't been issuing threats. That's all you hear about, his poor supporters with hurt feelings if she wins . . .

    [ Parent ]
    Your post had just the right combination (5.00 / 2) (#138)
    by tree on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:56:07 PM EST
    of insults, condescension and fear-mongering to encapsulate everything that is so annoying about SOME Obama supporters' arguments. In case you missed it, your post was just another a "go f--- yourself argument".  

    You are right about one thing though. It doesn't win over anyone.

    [ Parent ]

    I couldn't have said it better- (none / 0) (#184)
    by kimsaw on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:17:42 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    I Guess The Obama Supporters Who Said They (5.00 / 0) (#147)
    by MO Blue on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:58:22 PM EST
    would leave the party if Obama is not the nominee, aren't real Democrats either. They evidently don't seem to care about Roe v Wade, 100 years in Iraq and numerous other atrocities.

    [ Parent ]
    Way to reunite those Reagan Dems! (5.00 / 0) (#170)
    by Salo on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:06:19 PM EST
    hoo haaa.

    [ Parent ]
    Gun Boat Diplomacy (5.00 / 0) (#176)
    by txpolitico67 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:09:42 PM EST
    goes over as well with me as a lead balloon.  Obama had no problem pulling the lever for Justice Roberts and his catering to far-right wing pastors like McClurkin who are so rabidly anti-gay doesn't make me clamor for him.  At all.

    If Obama wins the nom and loses the election its because of his OWN failure to lure voters.

    Election, democracy, voters....that pesky combo.

    [ Parent ]

    This is (none / 0) (#57)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:31:04 PM EST
    typical of everywhere. And "party healing" probably isn't going to cut it. Obama's had months to sell Hillary voters and he hasn't even tried.

    [ Parent ]
    BINGO!! (5.00 / 0) (#63)
    by Edgar08 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:34:44 PM EST
    Problem is, he has nothing to sell in that regard.

    A lot of people just aren't going to vote for a question mark with a neat speech over a known entity.

    [ Parent ]

    Ihad to laugh at dean (none / 0) (#75)
    by Salo on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:37:53 PM EST
    saying he was the reason his voters generally decided to go with Kerry after he dropped out.

    The Clinton voters are probably not sheep.

    At this point there's less evidence to expect these voters are going to de party true...and more to suggest they will vote on political experience.

    [ Parent ]

    Well (none / 0) (#86)
    by Steve M on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:40:41 PM EST
    It really does make a difference, especially among voters who are new to politics and may not have a lot of institutional loyalty to the Democratic brand beyond their liking for a particular candidate.

    [ Parent ]
    That deosn't (5.00 / 1) (#115)
    by Salo on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:49:32 PM EST
    describe her voters.

    I wonder to what extent they may see Obama's peeps as a hostile takeover from a fringe.

    [ Parent ]

    Well (5.00 / 2) (#124)
    by Steve M on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:51:39 PM EST
    I do not personally dwell in the fantasyland where Barack Obama is the only candidate who inspires new voters.

    [ Parent ]
    the reason (none / 0) (#113)
    by Capt Howdy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:48:58 PM EST
    is named W

    [ Parent ]
    That was my reason. n/t (none / 0) (#128)
    by nycstray on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:53:15 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Yes but.. (none / 0) (#59)
    by ineedalife on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:32:52 PM EST
    30% of the voters were indies and Republicans.

    [ Parent ]
    And another yes, but.... (5.00 / 1) (#74)
    by tree on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:37:47 PM EST
    According to SUSA's last Indiana poll, Clinton's lead among Democrats was 19 points, her lead among Republicans was only 3, and she trailed among Independents by 6. Chances are its not because the Independents and Republicans that exit polls are skewing toward the "50% won't vote for Obama" among    the Clinton voters.

    [ Parent ]
    The difference b/w NC and IN (5.00 / 1) (#111)
    by RedSox04 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:47:35 PM EST
    was shocking, I thought, as far as the "will vote for the other candidate".

    NC, where Republicans can't cross over, had a pretty stark difference between Obama voters saying they'd vote for Hillary vs. not.  

    For Obama voters, if Hillary is the nominee, who will you vote for?

    IN: 59% Hillary, 21% stay home, 17% McCain
    NC: 70% Hillary, 14% stay home, 12% McCain

    For Clinton voters, the #s in IN and NC were pretty much the same: about 50% said they'd vote Obama, 33% said McCain, and 17% said stay home.

    The fact that IN vs. NC was so disparate for Obama supporters seems to suggest that (once again), Obama benefited pretty strongly from crossover Republicans and Indies.

    [ Parent ]

    so we're looking at yet another (none / 0) (#127)
    by oldnorthstate on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:52:57 PM EST
    race where republicans are voting in a democratic primary against hillary.  unreal.  close those puppies up and hillary has the nomination locked up months ago.

    [ Parent ]
    On Morning Joe (5.00 / 0) (#149)
    by Kathy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:59:00 PM EST
    (wherein Joe, no kidding, said, "Why are you so wonderful?" as his last question to her) she said that if we did this the way the repubs did, with winner take all, she would've wrapped up the nom ages ago.

    I'm glad to hear she's making this point.  It's all about the EC.

    [ Parent ]

    65% working class for Clinton (5.00 / 1) (#60)
    by nycstray on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:33:23 PM EST
    in IN and 67% for Clinton in NC

    Fox just reported this.

    Wow (none / 0) (#61)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:34:16 PM EST
    Bad numbers for Obama.

    [ Parent ]
    Not if it's just working class whites (none / 0) (#66)
    by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:35:53 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Actually it is bad for him (none / 0) (#82)
    by nycstray on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:39:11 PM EST
    he can't win the GE without them can he? And women . . . and . . . lol!~

    He's targeted them in PA, IN and NC. He needs to show some results. Remember, he's still outspending her etc. And he didn't go bowling this time  ;)

    [ Parent ]

    It will matter less if he wins (none / 0) (#88)
    by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:40:53 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    General Election Poison. (none / 0) (#95)
    by Salo on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:42:33 PM EST
    GEP.

    He can't keep up this fraud if he gets clobbered in these demos.

    [ Parent ]

    Economy 54% Clinton IN (none / 0) (#68)
    by nycstray on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:36:47 PM EST
    52% Obama NC.

    [ Parent ]
    That sounds encouraging (none / 0) (#64)
    by Lil on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:35:35 PM EST
    creeping towards 70%. Certainly over the bottom line of 60%.

    [ Parent ]
    There are other white people than (5.00 / 1) (#67)
    by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:36:29 PM EST
    working class, I'm afraid.

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah (5.00 / 1) (#72)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:37:43 PM EST
    it means more in IN than NC imo.

    [ Parent ]
    I'm listening to andgarden (none / 0) (#80)
    by kmblue on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:39:07 PM EST
    he knows his stuff.

    [ Parent ]
    are there no working class blacks? (none / 0) (#97)
    by jackyt on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:43:20 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    We are assuming 90% of blacks vote (5.00 / 1) (#125)
    by Salo on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:52:10 PM EST
    for Obama.  The metric on Obama is simply how many blacks turn out.  His vote is more or less predictable once you know HOW MANY blacks came out to vote. This is a statistical analysis--not polite discussion.

    [ Parent ]
    My problem with this is that it works in (none / 0) (#160)
    by Florida Resident on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:02:33 PM EST
    Democratic primaries were AA vote compose a large section of the vote (30% >).  Coupled with about 35-40% of white votes you end up with a probable Obama victory if there is a large AA turnout.  In the GE AA vote is not nearly as decisive so you have to have a better general demographic appeal.  This was reflected in mini scenarios in those Democratic primaries were the AA vote did not compromise such a large block of the total vote, Ohio, Pa, NJ, NY, Mass, Ca, etc.  My opinion of course.

    [ Parent ]
    Working Class Whites? (none / 0) (#71)
    by BDB on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:37:23 PM EST
    Or all working class voters?

    [ Parent ]
    I Don't See Obama Getting Enough Of This (none / 0) (#83)
    by MO Blue on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:39:25 PM EST
    demographic back if he is the nominee no matter how hard the Clintons campaign for him.

    [ Parent ]
    Fox reports...Working class (5.00 / 1) (#65)
    by vicsan on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:35:37 PM EST
    and Rev. Wright issue.....exit poll = 64% Indiana for Hillary. 67% NC for Hillary. This is the white working class, I do believe.

    Hillary's going to win this thing...in both states.

    Don't get my hopes up (5.00 / 1) (#70)
    by Emma on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:37:19 PM EST
    Exit polls are evil, evil I tell you!!!  Stop!!  But I can't tear myself away.  Gah!!!!!

    [ Parent ]
    I know. I know. (none / 0) (#105)
    by vicsan on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:46:15 PM EST
    I can't help myself. I remember in PA. we were told to ignore the exit polls because people LIE. I'm ignoring them. I'll pay attention when the returns start.

    [ Parent ]
    Wow (5.00 / 2) (#73)
    by americanincanada on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:37:44 PM EST
    White no college degree

    IndianaHRC 65% Obama 34%

    NC
    HRC 67% Obama 26%

    Indiana, 30% say Wright very important.

    NC, 33% say Wright very important

    That is shocking. (5.00 / 2) (#84)
    by Salo on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:39:41 PM EST
    65% of the white working class vote?

    This is gonna be dramatic.

    [ Parent ]

    Not to go against my credo (5.00 / 3) (#98)
    by Kathy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:43:25 PM EST
    that I only believe statistics and polls that support my candidate, but I am sitting here wondering how they determine whether someone is working class.  Is that self-reported, or do they guess, or what?

    I got called on a phone survey last week (I know, I was so excited!) and of course I lied about my education (I'm ABD, so why not?) and when they asked, "how would you describe yourself: caucasian, african american, etc..." I chose, "other," because, like most people, at my core, I want to think that I'm special.

    [ Parent ]

    I've wondered that, too. (5.00 / 1) (#142)
    by Marco21 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:57:00 PM EST
    I make pretty good money - more than double my father did (not adjusting for inflation) and he and my mom paid for 4 kids.

    Still, I mostly live paycheck to paycheck. Some between pay periods offer a bigger cushion than others.

    I think I am working class. Others think I am just classy. F-in A! :)

    [ Parent ]

    And you are, Kathy (5.00 / 1) (#146)
    by katiebird on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:57:42 PM EST
    Very Special.

    [ Parent ]
    if you work... (none / 0) (#141)
    by jackyt on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:56:58 PM EST
    you're working class, no?

    (but maybe not if you ENJOY working)

    [ Parent ]

    I wonder (none / 0) (#87)
    by kmblue on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:40:51 PM EST
    what Wright is doing right now.

    [ Parent ]
    on line with travelocity? (5.00 / 1) (#92)
    by Capt Howdy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:42:07 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    LOL (none / 0) (#117)
    by kmblue on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:50:03 PM EST
    you kill me, Captain!

    [ Parent ]
    If 67 % holds (none / 0) (#126)
    by AnninCA on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:52:28 PM EST
    that is super close to BTD's 70% requirement for a win.

    Too early......I can't get excited yet.  LOL*

    [ Parent ]

    Not really (5.00 / 1) (#137)
    by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:55:42 PM EST
    Because the universe of white voters is LARGER than just the working class.

    [ Parent ]
    That's Just Working Class Whites (5.00 / 1) (#140)
    by BDB on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:56:48 PM EST
    Not affluent whites that are more likely to vote Obama.

    [ Parent ]
    It's a reasonable measure (none / 0) (#165)
    by Salo on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:04:14 PM EST
    of what's going on. Most wealthy people are GOP.

    [ Parent ]
    I've always (none / 0) (#194)
    by PlayInPeoria on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:25:25 PM EST
    told people I'm not rich enough to be a Republican.

    I'm white collar worker with college degree and my hubby is blue collar with HS deploma.. we are both middle class. He is American Indian and I'm mixed. I don't know how they could classify us?!?!

    [ Parent ]

    AA turnout in NC (5.00 / 1) (#76)
    by zebedee on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:37:56 PM EST
    I think I read that 25% had already voted early and were 40% AA. If AAs are "about a third" in AP exit polls report that makes it around 35% overall, roughly as expected

    Wolf Blitzer's Two cents (5.00 / 4) (#79)
    by Chimster on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:38:22 PM EST
    I like what Blitzer had to say about the remainder of the primary race:

    "Michigan already has a state-wide primary scheduled for August 5 for local and state elections. Florida has a similar state-wide primary scheduled for August 26, the second day of the Democratic convention in Denver. Why not let the two states add a Hillary Clinton-Barack Obama election to the ballots for those two primaries?"

    I believe this solution could provide a more definitive answer as to who our nominee will be. The opposition to this would likely claim "It's not fair to count FL and MI because they broke the rules". That's a debate I'm looking forward to.

    Um, (5.00 / 1) (#89)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:41:09 PM EST
    Because, Mr. Blitzer, the DNC wants Obama to win.

    This has been my stupid answer to stupid questions.

    [ Parent ]

    I dont see how they can stop this (none / 0) (#90)
    by Capt Howdy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:41:19 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    *hehe (none / 0) (#136)
    by AnninCA on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:55:09 PM EST
    That's a big yeppers!  :)

    If Guam gets to vote, by dang it, so will FL and MI!

    [ Parent ]

    MI seems like a no brainer (none / 0) (#203)
    by fuzzyone on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:33:23 PM EST
    Why not just add their names.  How has this not been mentioned before?  The FL one seems more problematic since its during the convention, but counting FL has always seemed less problematic to me since Obama was on the ballot.  Could be the making of a reasonable compromise.  Not that reason ever seems to win out.

    [ Parent ]
    David Schuster is stating repeatedly... (5.00 / 2) (#93)
    by Dawn Davenport on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:42:09 PM EST
    ...that there's been "record Republican turnout" in IN; he seems to be pushing the "Operation Chaos" meme.

    And with Matthews saying MI and FL "bore me to death" it's time for me to switch to CNN.

    are there any (5.00 / 1) (#107)
    by Kathy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:46:32 PM EST
    contested repub races in IN?  NC has a big one in the gubernatorial race.  Hotly contested, and Wright came into play vis-a-vis advertising.

    I love that repubs who become dems for a day are just moved by Obama love while repubs who vote Clinton are evil Limbaugh-following freaks.

    [ Parent ]

    Well, there's more than prez on the ballot (nt) (none / 0) (#129)
    by Cream City on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:53:25 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    could I just say (5.00 / 1) (#155)
    by Capt Howdy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:00:57 PM EST
    Talk Left is doing an awsum job today.
    thanks


    Yikes (5.00 / 0) (#174)
    by americanincanada on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:08:20 PM EST
    Those numbers of white men and seniors do not bode well for Obama at all. it will also make any win on the backs of AA voters in NC very suspect for the GE.

    I loved that clip of Bill (5.00 / 0) (#181)
    by stillife on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:13:33 PM EST
    saying she "doesn't have any quit in her" and she's got more lives than a cat.

    I'm nervous!  It's gonna be a long night.

    That southern way of talking (none / 0) (#191)
    by catfish on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:22:51 PM EST
    wish it was teachable skill. But would sound phony with a California accent.

    [ Parent ]
    This is why I don't do phone calls (5.00 / 1) (#196)
    by stillife on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:31:03 PM EST
    for Hillary.  I'm horrible on the phone, plus my accent is a combination of flat Midwestern and NYC.  

    [ Parent ]
    Sorry everybody. It appears Hillary will lose big (1.00 / 0) (#189)
    by dugan49 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:21:16 PM EST
    in NC. The only exit polling you need is a 90%+ figure for Obama. Blacks are roughly one third of the Democratic vote. With 90% of blacks with Obama, all he need is 40% of the TOTAL white vote to have a 12+ victory.

    It appears Hillary loses NC big, and we will all just have to make the best of it.

    What about uneducated white women? (1.00 / 1) (#193)
    by fiver5 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:25:09 PM EST
    Surely they can be counted on to support Clinton.  There's lots of them, and they watch tons of TV.

    [ Parent ]
    If blacks are 33% of the NC voters, and (1.00 / 0) (#197)
    by dugan49 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:31:11 PM EST
    90% of them vote Obama, Clinton would need 70% of ALL whites to win, that includes men, women, seniors, college kids. 70% of the entire white vote. White women cannot carry the day this time. It appears she will go down big in NC, the demographics have taken hold of this election.

    [ Parent ]
    Looks like (none / 0) (#199)
    by americanincanada on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:44:29 PM EST
    her white working class vote is certainly approaching that 70% number. 67% wasn't it?

    Also, early exit polls are usually wrong. Not to mention that people lie.

    [ Parent ]

    She would need (none / 0) (#201)
    by dugan49 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:51:24 PM EST
    70% of all white votes to win, not just working class. A 10+ loss is much more likely. It could even be bigger. The polls that showed it close were based on a 75-80% black vote for Obama, not the 90+ it has turned out to be.

    [ Parent ]
    Early exit polls (none / 0) (#1)
    by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:06:42 PM EST
    I do not trust.

    Are You Sticking With Your Morning Predictions (none / 0) (#15)
    by MO Blue on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:13:43 PM EST
    or has anything you heard today changed your mind?

    [ Parent ]
    If the reports about turnout are right, (5.00 / 1) (#23)
    by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:16:16 PM EST
    and as BTD observed they rarely are, it will be a bad night for Hillary.

    [ Parent ]
    I have a bad feeling andgarden. (5.00 / 1) (#28)
    by Teresa on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:19:21 PM EST
    Of course, I've been doom and gloom since mid-February, but low turnout in rural Indiana will be a killer.

    [ Parent ]
    Betting against turnout (5.00 / 1) (#31)
    by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:20:31 PM EST
    has not been wise yet this season. So we'll see.

    [ Parent ]
    Turnout will affect mine (none / 0) (#24)
    by waldenpond on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:17:00 PM EST
    I didn't realize the polls closed this early in IN.  In CA we stay open late.  If turnout is low in the rural areas, Obama had the early vote (really?) and turnout is up in areas favorable to Obama, I would add another 3 to 4 pts to my spread.  Looks like Obama could be moving to 15.

    [ Parent ]
    Obama (none / 0) (#2)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:07:40 PM EST
    has always said it's going to be close. He said the same thing about PA.

    Early exit polls always favor Obama. You just have to wait until the votes start coming in.

    lanny (none / 0) (#5)
    by DJ on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:09:51 PM EST
    looked down on fox

    Too funny (none / 0) (#16)
    by waldenpond on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:14:33 PM EST
    I was just relaying Lanny Davis on Fox on the other post.  I changed the channel when an Obama supporter came on.

    Can't listen to Obama anymore (none / 0) (#20)
    by stefystef on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:15:41 PM EST
    His droning voice is really starting to get to me now.
    His followers (some, not all) get to be a little nauseating too.

    So you are not alone in your feelings.

    [ Parent ]

    Hardball acting (as usual) as though it is over (none / 0) (#26)
    by kenosharick on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:17:57 PM EST
    for Hillary- even going so far as to say she will probably drop out by the end of the week if she does not win both- which is nearly impossible.

    If that's what they said then you (5.00 / 2) (#35)
    by tree on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:21:47 PM EST
    can take it to the bank that they think she won in Indiana.

    [ Parent ]
    Gloria and Joe Klein both said last (5.00 / 1) (#37)
    by Teresa on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:22:23 PM EST
    night on Anderson Cooper that she had to win both states really big to stay in. Along with Roland, Anderson had such a balanced panel. :)

    [ Parent ]
    Early voting (none / 0) (#34)
    by Emma on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:21:18 PM EST
    Didn't they have early voting in IN, too?  I know for a fact they did, actually. Any numbers on that?

    Also, HRC gets good support in absentee ballots.

    Exit poll info (none / 0) (#36)
    by americanincanada on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:21:56 PM EST
    Though there is nothing in here that talks of rural turnout.

    LINK

    If the economy is biggest issue (none / 0) (#39)
    by bjorn on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:24:07 PM EST
    shouldn't that favor Clinton?

    [ Parent ]
    also if AA turnout is (none / 0) (#42)
    by bjorn on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:25:01 PM EST
    30% of vote in NC not good for Obama, didn't they expect up to 40% or does exit polling not include the early ballots?

    [ Parent ]
    AA turnout (none / 0) (#48)
    by CST on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:27:06 PM EST
    Exit polling does not include early voting.  So 30% will probably go up a bit.  Also, I think the expectation was 35% but I am not sure...

    [ Parent ]
    Saying AA turnout is (none / 0) (#62)
    by americanincanada on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:34:16 PM EST
    1/3 in NC. That is lower than expected, yes?

    Also, how many AA voters would be honest with exit poll people if they voted for clinton and had family or friends with them?

    [ Parent ]

    Those exit polls (none / 0) (#40)
    by dissenter on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:24:13 PM EST
    Don't look so bad for her demographically anyway.

    [ Parent ]
    Very vague though (none / 0) (#56)
    by ineedalife on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:30:46 PM EST
    I know these aren't weighted so they have to be vague but "over 50%" women can mean anything. 51% is death for Clinton, 58% is party-time.

    [ Parent ]
    58-59% (5.00 / 1) (#77)
    by Kathy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:38:05 PM EST
    has been the norm.

    Hold the party, though.  Andgarden is making me nervous.  I hate when he makes me nervous.

    [ Parent ]

    The hardball crew are nearly giddy (none / 0) (#43)
    by kenosharick on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:25:08 PM EST
    and that worries me very much. I am pessimistic by nature and if this party,MY PARTY, gives the nom to a sure loser after the last 8 years, I say the heck with em. I will write in Hillary.

    They seemed happy before PA too (5.00 / 2) (#44)
    by bjorn on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:26:38 PM EST
    so I wouldn't read too much into it..they just get off on talking about OBama regardless of results.

    [ Parent ]
    True (5.00 / 1) (#55)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:29:43 PM EST
    when the cities were coming in first they we all talking about is was close. Then when more came in they changed their story.

    [ Parent ]</