Real Clear Politics calculates the popular vote six ways. I've reprinted all six below.

Not surprisingly, my view is that only the first two are valid because whatever happens with delegates, the Florida and Michigan elections were certified by the states and people pulled a lever or touched a screen or dropped off or sent in a ballot choosing a candidate and those votes must be counted.

The DNC and both candidates agree at least some FL and MI delegates will be seated at the convention. The delegate selection is based in large part on who their voters selected in their state's certified primaries -- the popular vote for the counties/districts in the two states. How can their votes not be counted in the popular vote total?

However you calculate the popular vote total today, here's the ultimate question: Between 1 and 2 million people may vote in Puerto Rico's open primary on June 1 (2 million voted in 2004.) If Hillary wins convincingly, not W. VA or KY numbers but convincingly, won't she clearly be ahead in the popular vote by any rational standard?

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In the latest attempt to rationalize marginalizing Hillary Clinton and her supporters, Ezra Klein, seconded by Duncan Black, writes:

The electorate, its composition and universe of possible winning coalitions, is quite different now [than in 1980]. Many, many Democratic pundits and strategists connect their party's decline to Reagan's win, so a tremendous amount of mental energy is expended theorizing how they can take back what he wrested from them, and which candidates can win back "the Reagan Democrats." But the battle isn't to reconstruct the coalition that was dominant in the 1980s. It's to envision and form the majority that will endure for the next ten years.

I think this is a deflection. We need not look back to 1980. We need only look at the Democratic primary contest of this year. [More . . .]

Hillary Clinton has an op-ed today in the NY Daily News. She is staying in the race because she believes she is the best candidate and can win in November against John McCain.

I am running because I still believe I can win on the merits. Because, with our economy in crisis, our nation at war, the stakes have never been higher - and the need for real leadership has never been greater - and I believe I can provide that leadership.

I am not unaware of the challenges or the odds of my securing the nomination - but this race remains extraordinarily close, and hundreds of thousands of people in upcoming primaries are still waiting to vote. As I have said so many times over the course of this primary, if Sen. Obama wins the nomination, I will support him and work my heart out for him against John McCain. But that has not happened yet.

I am running because I believe staying in this race will help unite the Democratic Party. I believe that if Sen. Obama and I both make our case - and all Democrats have the chance to make their voices heard - in the end, everyone will be more likely to rally around the nominee.

If the article I post about below is an indication of the attitude that now permeates in the Barack Obama campaign, he may be headed for a hard fall. The Obama camp seem to underestimate the divide in the Party and the strong feelings of the millions and millions of Hillary Clinton supporters. I expect this from the Media, whose contempt for Hillary Clinton and the Clinton Wing of the Democratic Party is obvious. I do not expect it from the Obama Camp. The Obama Camp seems to be believing its own press clippings.

Imagine for a moment, Barack Obama has clinched the nomination. And he has called a news conference to announce his Vice Presidential choice. It is not Hillary Clinton. What do you suppose the story of the day is going to be? [More...]

To Barack Obama, the stripping of the Florida and Michigan delegations is just some contrived controversy driven by Hillary Clinton. 2.3 million voters? Counting the votes? They mean nothing. Obama last night said:

Democrat Barack Obama accused rival Hillary Clinton on Saturday of "stirring up" a controversy over the disqualified Florida primary election because it was her last hope of winning their party's presidential nomination.

Wow! Talk about belittling the voters of Florida and Michigan. Obama continued:

"The Clinton campaign has been stirring this up for fairly transparent reasons," Obama told reporters on the plane from San Juan, Puerto Rico, to Chicago, adding she had not done so earlier in the race when she did not need the delegates to win. "Let's not ... pretend that we don't know what's going on. I mean this is, from their perspective, their last slender hope to make arguments about how they can win, and I understand that," Obama said.

That's all Florida and Michigan mean to Obama? I know that the Media has no qualms showing contempt for Florida and Michigan. It is shocking to me that Obama is willing to state publically he feels the same way. MORE . . .

Barack Obama won the Guam caucuses by 7 votes. Pilar Lujan won the caucuses for chair of Guam's Democratic party. She had been uncommitted.

Friday, she announced she is supporting Hillary. That means Guam's delegates are split 4-4. There is one superdelegate left, Guam Senator Ben Pangelinan , who hasn't yet declared.

Obama's Guam campaign complained about Lujan's endorsement, saying she had promised to go with the popular vote and while 7 votes isn't much, she still should have honored it. Thay asked her to reconsider.

I thought Obama's camp thought the popular vote didn't matter. They didn't complain when John Kerry, Ted Kennedy and several others endorsed him despite the preferences of the majority of their states' voters for Hillary.

In endorsing Hillary, Lujan said: [More..]

Who's going to watch Recount tomorrow night?

This is an Open Thread.

Bob Somerby writes:

Readers! It may be hard for some Dems to believe, but an increasing number of mainstream scribes are now hacking away on your side! . . . Something else happens when hacks take your side—Josh Marshall rushes to praise their hackistry.

Somerby's mistake is that the Media scribes are taking Obama's side, not the Dems' side. Obama is the Media Darling. Not "a Dem." I think this lasts through his probable battle with McCain, which must come as a great shock to the "Straight Talk Expresser." But there it is.

Is it enough for Obama to win in November? I do not know, but it sure don't hurt.

Discussing the same Somerby piece, Digby worries the love affair won't last.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Comments now closed.

(larger and clearer version here.)

Update: On Hillary's speech in Aguadilla Sat. night:

Clinton spoke at an evening rally in Aguadilla, where she reminded the crowd of her ties to Puerto Rico as a first lady and then as senator from New York, which has approximately 1 million Puerto Rican residents. "My commitment to Puerto Rico did not start last month or last year," she said. "I will always be your voice as president." Through her speech, Clinton drew applause by insisting Puerto Ricans should get the same tax breaks, health care and economic opportunity afforded mainland U.S. citizens. "You deserve a president who will give Puerto Rico's issues as much attention as the president gives to any state," she said.

****

The Democratic candidates today are in Puerto Rico. Hillary will be in Aguadilla tonight, on the northwest tip of the island.

There are 3.9 million people in Puerto Rico and 2.5 million registered voters. The major parties are the Popular Democratic Party (PDP) and the New Progressive Party (NPP). In 2004, 2 million people voted. [More...]

Via Yglesias, Barack Obama said (and here Jeralyn on the same speech):

[D]emagogues like Hugo Chavez have stepped into this vacuum [of a failed US Latin America policy.] His predictable yet perilous mix of anti-American rhetoric, authoritarian government, and checkbook diplomacy offers the same false promise as the tried and failed ideologies of the past.

I agree with Obama's assessment of Chavez. One of Obama's big blog supporters and a good friend of mine, Al Giordano, does not. Al does not mention that in his review of Obama's speech. I had a debate with Al about Chavez in ancient blogging history at Daily Kos, where his admiration and support of Chavez was plain and unstinting. More. . . .

A Quinnipiac Poll shows Hillary leading and Obama trailing McCain in two of the three critical swing states, and Hillary leading Obama as to McCain in all three:

May 22, 2008 - McCain Leads Obama In Two Of Three Key Swing States, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds; Clinton Has Big Leads In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania --- FLORIDA: Clinton 48 - McCain 41; McCain 45 - Obama 41; OHIO: Clinton 48 - McCain 41; McCain 44 - Obama 40: PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 50 - McCain 37; Obama 46 - McCain 40

..."The numbers for Florida and Ohio are good news for Sen. John McCain and should be worrisome for Sen. Barack Obama. That is especially true about Ohio, which decided the 2004 election. Ohio's economy is worse than the rest of the country and the Republican brand there is in disrepute. McCain's Buckeye lead may be a sign that nationally this may not be the easy Democratic walk to the White House that many expected," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

In the popular vote, Jonathan Last of the Philadelphia Inquirer Editorial Board comes up with much the same numbers that I did a few days ago, using Real Clear Politics and the most expansive number of voters available, one that includes Florida, Michigan and the caucus states. [More...]

Since it's a holiday weekend, let's go off politics for a bit. Has anyone seen the new Indiana Jones movie? I'll see it, but only because Karen Allen is in it. Here's what she's been up to in real life these past years.

It has been 27 years since Ms. Allen, 56, played Harrison Ford’s rugged romantic interest in “Raiders of the Lost Ark.” Following breakthrough roles in “Animal House,” “Manhattan” and “Starman,” and more recent work in “The Perfect Storm” and “In the Bedroom,” she moved with her son, Nick Browne, to Great Barrington, Mass.

Today, she owns a knitting shop there and teaches acting at Bard College at Simon’s Rock — but a call from Steven Spielberg, inviting her to join the newest Indiana Jones movie, thrust her back into the spotlight.

The Times article leaves out omits my of two favorite films with her: "The Wanderers" and "A Small Circle of Friends."

Everyone's probably seen The Wanderers, about a Bronx "gang" in 1963, but I'd bet virtually no one remembers Small Circle of Friends. I do, because it came out when I was very pregnant and I ended up naming the TL kid Nic after one of the characters. Turns out Ms. Allen named her son Nick. Probably a coincidence, since her son is now 17, but...[More..]