A peace offering. Ras polling on Kentucky in the GE:

Obama 32
McCain 57

Clinton 51
McCain 42

For the record, I do not believe a Dem can win in Kentucky this year but the poll results say what they say.

BTW, Mason Dixon says Montana is not in play. McCain leads both Obama and Clinton handily.

By Big Tent Democrat

Comments closed

At the risk of offending, I note Paul Krugman's column on the division in the Democratic Party, the risk it is causing to winning the Presidency and what can be done about it:

Why does all this matter? Not for the nomination: Mr. Obama will be the Democratic nominee. But he has a problem: many grass-roots Clinton supporters feel that she has received unfair, even grotesque treatment. And the lingering bitterness from the primary campaign could cost Mr. Obama the White House.

To the extent that the general election is about the issues, Mr. Obama should have no trouble winning over former Clinton supporters, especially the white working-class voters he lost in the primaries. His health care plan is seriously deficient, but he will nonetheless be running on a far more worker-friendly platform than his opponent. . . . [MORE]

I'm watching the repeat of Recount. TalkLeft was just a website and not a blog in 2000, but I tracked the events daily and when it was over, made a compendium page. It's accessible here and if you're fuzzy on the chronology of events, it may provide some information. The links to the AP articles are no longer valid, but most of those to other news sources still work.

As for Indiana Jones, don't ask. Aside from the fire alarms going off in the 15 theater movie plex, requiring evacuation of all of them about 20 minutes after the movie started, and then having to watch all the previews and first 20 minutes again, it just wasn't very good or memorable. I did enjoy Karen Allen, but the plot strained credulity and there was too much of the 1950's in it for my taste.

If anyone's still up and online and has something to say, here's the spot.

Comments now closed

Here's a thread to discuss the important HBO film Recount, to be broadcast starting now. It's relevance to the current Democratic primary is obvious. Let's limit the discussion to Recount if we can.

I am signing off now. Have a nice night. J is at the movies.

Recount airs tonight on HBO at 9 PM ET. Check your local listing for your time zone. It should be watched by everyone.

This is an Open Thread. Have a good afternoon and evening.

Update (TL): I'm off to see the new Indiana Jones movie (because I like Karen Allen) so this will be the last open thread for a few hours. And yes, I'm tivo-ing Recount.

Please keep it civil and don't respond to site violators. (Comment rules are here and new commenters are limited to 10 in a 24 hour period.) It's easier for me to identify and delete them when I see them called out. If you respond to them, chances are your response goes down the rabbit hole too.

I am sorry to continue to harp on the need for a Unity Ticket, but I feel it is important. I just looked at the latest McCain-Obama head to heads (forget the electoral college math problems for a moment) and here they are:

Rasmussen: Obama 44, McCain 46

Gallup: Obama 45, McCain 47

Newsweek: Obama 46, McCain 46

Forget for a moment that Clinton is beating McCain in these same polls, excuse me, is no one but me worried about needing a unified Democratic Party in November? I pray there are grownups in the Obama camp that will give him a reality check on this.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Comments closed. I am gone for the rest of the weekend. I might be back Tuesday or Wednesday if something about FL/MI happens. I will not be writing on anything else for the time being.

Don't forget to watch Recount tonight or tomorrow night.

I'm done for the afternoon, enjoy the holiday, get outside, but for those who can't or don't want to, here's an open thread.

Comments now closed, there is a new open thread up.

Real Clear Politics calculates the popular vote six ways. I've reprinted all six below.

Not surprisingly, my view is that only the first two are valid because whatever happens with delegates, the Florida and Michigan elections were certified by the states and people pulled a lever or touched a screen or dropped off or sent in a ballot choosing a candidate and those votes must be counted.

The DNC and both candidates agree at least some FL and MI delegates will be seated at the convention. The delegate selection is based in large part on who their voters selected in their state's certified primaries -- the popular vote for the counties/districts in the two states. How can their votes not be counted in the popular vote total?

However you calculate the popular vote total today, here's the ultimate question: Between 1 and 2 million people may vote in Puerto Rico's open primary on June 1 (2 million voted in 2004.) If Hillary wins convincingly, not W. VA or KY numbers but convincingly, won't she clearly be ahead in the popular vote by any rational standard?

More...

In the latest attempt to rationalize marginalizing Hillary Clinton and her supporters, Ezra Klein, seconded by Duncan Black, writes:

The electorate, its composition and universe of possible winning coalitions, is quite different now [than in 1980]. Many, many Democratic pundits and strategists connect their party's decline to Reagan's win, so a tremendous amount of mental energy is expended theorizing how they can take back what he wrested from them, and which candidates can win back "the Reagan Democrats." But the battle isn't to reconstruct the coalition that was dominant in the 1980s. It's to envision and form the majority that will endure for the next ten years.

I think this is a deflection. We need not look back to 1980. We need only look at the Democratic primary contest of this year. [More . . .]

Hillary Clinton has an op-ed today in the NY Daily News. She is staying in the race because she believes she is the best candidate and can win in November against John McCain.

I am running because I still believe I can win on the merits. Because, with our economy in crisis, our nation at war, the stakes have never been higher - and the need for real leadership has never been greater - and I believe I can provide that leadership.

I am not unaware of the challenges or the odds of my securing the nomination - but this race remains extraordinarily close, and hundreds of thousands of people in upcoming primaries are still waiting to vote. As I have said so many times over the course of this primary, if Sen. Obama wins the nomination, I will support him and work my heart out for him against John McCain. But that has not happened yet.

I am running because I believe staying in this race will help unite the Democratic Party. I believe that if Sen. Obama and I both make our case - and all Democrats have the chance to make their voices heard - in the end, everyone will be more likely to rally around the nominee.

If the article I post about below is an indication of the attitude that now permeates in the Barack Obama campaign, he may be headed for a hard fall. The Obama camp seem to underestimate the divide in the Party and the strong feelings of the millions and millions of Hillary Clinton supporters. I expect this from the Media, whose contempt for Hillary Clinton and the Clinton Wing of the Democratic Party is obvious. I do not expect it from the Obama Camp. The Obama Camp seems to be believing its own press clippings.

Imagine for a moment, Barack Obama has clinched the nomination. And he has called a news conference to announce his Vice Presidential choice. It is not Hillary Clinton. What do you suppose the story of the day is going to be? [More...]

To Barack Obama, the stripping of the Florida and Michigan delegations is just some contrived controversy driven by Hillary Clinton. 2.3 million voters? Counting the votes? They mean nothing. Obama last night said:

Democrat Barack Obama accused rival Hillary Clinton on Saturday of "stirring up" a controversy over the disqualified Florida primary election because it was her last hope of winning their party's presidential nomination.

Wow! Talk about belittling the voters of Florida and Michigan. Obama continued:

"The Clinton campaign has been stirring this up for fairly transparent reasons," Obama told reporters on the plane from San Juan, Puerto Rico, to Chicago, adding she had not done so earlier in the race when she did not need the delegates to win. "Let's not ... pretend that we don't know what's going on. I mean this is, from their perspective, their last slender hope to make arguments about how they can win, and I understand that," Obama said.

That's all Florida and Michigan mean to Obama? I know that the Media has no qualms showing contempt for Florida and Michigan. It is shocking to me that Obama is willing to state publically he feels the same way. MORE . . .