A new Univision/El Vocero poll of Puerto Rico has Clinton ahead by 13 over Obama, 51-38 (59-40 among LVs). However, the reporting of the results makes it somewhat difficult to interpret what it all means. For example, the poll says it found that 50% will not vote. Now, that sounds bad for Puerto Rico (where turnout is usually over 80% of the electorate), but imagine 50% turnout in the states in a primary. That is remarkable. I would add that that would project that a million voters will vote on Sunday.

If Clinton wins by 13, and a million voters come out, then Clinton would gain 130,000 in the popular vote contest. Not a bad day at all for her.

The was a Greenberg poll done in the way Puerto Rico polls generally are done - in face to face at home interviews. the likely voter numbers are actually 59-40 for Clinton. This is a meaningful poll.

By Big Tent Democrat

Bumped: Yesterday I presented a report by Peniel Cronin on the disparity between the caucuses and primaries this year. (The actual report is here, pdf.)

Today, it's time to examine pledged delegates and remind everyone that pledged delegates are only part of the equation in a superdelegate's decision who to vote for.

Superdelegates were intended to act as brakes on a system run amok. That's what we have here, and it will be further derailed if rumors about only seating half of Florida's delegates are true.

The pledged delegate total is one argument for nomination. It is not a qualifying event. By itself, a majority of pledged delegates is not enough to win the nomination. This year, in particular, the legitimacy of the pledged delegate count is uncertain.

Here is a second graphic and fact-filled, number crunching report (pdf). [More...]

Bump and Update: I just received permission to publish the materials. Here they are. By the way, TalkLeft will have a live-blogger credentialed at the meeting. S/he is BackFromOhio. So we will have two live-blogs going, BTD and I will live-blog together watching tv and BackFromOhio will live-blog from the meeting room.

******

I have just received the 38 page DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee Meeting Materials on Florida and Michigan. The DNC asks that we not publish them so I will honor their request. Here's what their e-mail says about them:

• This document contains copies of the MI and FL challenges, a staff analysis of each challenge, and the overall timeline.

• The documents are intentionally neutral. They do not make specific recommendations. The analysis seeks to provide a rules framework for each argument and the issues raised within each challenge.

• The analysis maintains that the RBC did have proper authority and jurisdiction in imposing the 100% sanction. The RBC had wide latidude in that decsion.

• According to the rules, the automatic sanctions was 50%, the RBC has within its authority to impose a sanction up to 100%.

We will go review them and update here with any observations. Here's what Big Tent Democrat wrote this morning on their conclusions. Comments are closed on his post, but you can comment here. [More...]

Howard Kurtz covers what everyone knows, MSNBC is in the tank for Obama:

Terence Smith, a former correspondent for CBS, PBS and the New York Times, says . . . [a]s for Matthews and Olbermann, Smith says, "there's no confusion on 'Hardball' or 'Countdown' as to where they stand. They are and have been enamored of Obama from the beginning."

Here 's a funny line - "The Obama campaign, for its part, has not complained about MSNBC's coverage." Uh huh. They have not complained about Daily Kos and Talking Points Memo's coverage either. That was a hoot.

And finally, from the DUH file:

In the bitter battle for the Democratic nomination, MSNBC is widely viewed as being rough on Clinton.

Hey, it's the Obama News Network -- it is Obama's answer to Fox. And Olbermann is Obama's O'Reilly. But it has helped in ratings, at least the Obama love part. The Clinton Hate? Not so much I think.

Speaking for me only

Harold Meyerson, in a generally patronizing and now typical for him, atrocious, column, also proves he knows nothing about the Florida and Michigan controversies:

Had Florida and Michigan conducted their primaries the way the other 48 states conducted their own primaries and caucuses -- that is, in accord with the very clear calendar laid down by the DNC well before the primaries began -- then Clinton's marchers would be utterly justified in their claims.

(Emphasis supplied.) Psssst, Harold. This whole mess started because New Hampshire did not like the calendar and jumped ahead of Nevada. This infuriated Michigan who then thought, well if the calendar does not mean anything, we'll move up too. And then in Florida, the GOP controlled legislature and governor decided to do some mischief and moved up their primary one week, but AFTER the so called all important "early 4 state window." [More...]

Gallup has a new analysis out on Hillary Clinton's swing state advantage over Barack Obama.

In the 20 states where Hillary Clinton has claimed victory in the 2008 Democratic primary and caucus elections (winning the popular vote), she has led John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily trial heats for the general election over the past two weeks of Gallup Poll Daily tracking by 50% to 43%. In those same states, Barack Obama is about tied with McCain among national registered voters, 45% to 46%.

In contrast, in the 28 states and the District of Columbia where Obama has won a higher share of the popular vote against Clinton in the 2008 Democratic primaries and caucuses, there is essentially no difference in how Obama and Clinton each fare against McCain. Both Democrats are statistically tied with him for the fall election.

....All of this speaks to Sen. Clinton's claim that her primary-state victories over Obama indicate her potential superiority in the general election.

Superdelegates, are you listening?

Remember the DNC Rule that actually called for a 50% stripping of delegates? Now the DNC has employed its lawyers to invoke that rule - to put a cap on the number of delegates Florida and Michigan can be awarded:

A Democratic Party rules committee has the authority to restore delegates from Michigan and Florida but not fully seat the two states at the convention as Hillary Rodham Clinton wants, according to a party analysis. Party rules require that the two states lose at least half of their convention delegates for holding elections too early, Democratic National Committee lawyers wrote in a 38-page memo.

This is sad, rich and hilarious. After trampling their own rules, including the 50% Rule, in fully stripping Florida and Michigan of their delegates (all the while ignoring other violations of the schedule by Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina), now the DNC has its lawyers write a memo giving it an excuse for why it will (as now seems obvious) only restore 50% of the delegates in Florida and Michigan. And of course this ignores the fact that Florida was entitled to the safe harbor provision in the DNC rules (See DNC Rules 20c.7, 21a and 21b), and should not have suffered any penalty. Heck, maybe the DNC owes Florida EXTRA delegates now.[More...]

Another day, another dollar. There must be something we didn't discuss enough yesterday. I'll be gone for a few hours, you can pick the topics. Just try not the leave the place a mess, I hate to clean.

Have a great morning, see you soon.

Comments now closed.

Barack Obama escaped hot water over his mistaking Auschwitz for Buchenwald. Fair enough. But I have a new theory now -- one that's more a curious observation than a criticism, or perhaps a little of both.

He makes a lot of mistakes about his family history. It's like he's retelling stories he's heard from third parties, including campaign staff who looked the stuff up. Maybe, aside from his grandparents with whom he lived for several years, he didn't know their side of the family that well -- including the great uncle who was one of the first at Buchenwald. In other words, he's telling stories he's learned on the campaign trail rather than ones he grew up hearing.

It probably wasn't his father who mistakenly told him the Kennedy family paid for his travel to the U.S. to study in Hawaii. It probably wasn't his mother who told him the 1965 March in Selma, AL allowed her to marry his father (he was born in 1961). More likely, I think, campaign researchers and aides came up with it.

Just like the Boston Globe reported the campaign came up with the story about his Indiana "homestead." I doubt he even knew there was a family homestead before going to Indiana to campaign: [More...]

Your turn. This is an Open Thread.

Oh, Hendrik Hertzberg loves Chris Matthews. The Malign Acceptance of Sexism and Misogyny right before your eyes from one of our fine "progressive" writers. Frankly, this is just inexcusbale. Digby does it up right. What a disgrace.

In a poll performed by the largest newspaper in in Puerto Rico, El Nuevo Dia, the indicted Puerto Rico Governor Anibal Acevedo Vila trails his Statehood Party opponent Luis Fortuno by 34 points, 59-25. Acevedo Vila has endorsed Barack Obama in the June 1 Puerto Rico primary.

However, the Statehood Party candidate for Resident Commissioner, Pedro Pierluisi, also an Obama endorser, holds a hefty 29 point advantage over his Commonwealth Party opponent.

I expect the newspaper also polled the Presidential primary but will release those results in the next few days. What this means, imo, is that the Statehood Party is in the ascendancy and the question is whether it will activate its political machinery at the behest of its Resident Commissioner candidate Pierluisi, or stay on the sidelines, as its Gubernatorial candidate, Fortuno, is a Republican and a McCain supporter.

My speculation is that the Presidential candidates will largely be on their own in this contest and will have to rely on their own hastily built political operations on the Island.

Here is a good telling quote from an Obama operative about how Puerto Rico works:

Here I go again giving McCain advice, but I have been struck by the fact that in all the McCain VP talk no one has mentioned Rudy Giuliani. Heck, I heard them talking about Bloomberg today, but not Rudy. I figure that folks think McCain has to have an anti-choice VP but does that hold true for Rudy? No one thought it was going to kill Rudy's chances when he was running for President. In fact, Rudy got the good housekeeping approval from a lot of evangelicals. His problems were different.

If Obama is the Dem nominee, won't McCain be able to buttress his shots at Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida and even New Jersey with Rudy as his running mate?

Maybe I am crazy but I think given the way the map is shaping up, Rudy could make the most sense for McCain. And it is striking to me the no one seems to be talking about him.

POSTSCRIPT - People are mentioning Colin Powell and if he would take it then it is a no brainer imo. He broke with the Bush Administration (too late of course) and is greatly respected despite his failures. But my understanding is he would never ever accept it.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me, and as a political pundit. only. I detest Rudy Giuliani.

Comments closed