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New Puerto Rico Poll: Clinton By 13, 19 Among LVs

A new Univision/El Vocero poll of Puerto Rico has Clinton ahead by 13 over Obama, 51-38 (59-40 among LVs). However, the reporting of the results makes it somewhat difficult to interpret what it all means. For example, the poll says it found that 50% will not vote. Now, that sounds bad for Puerto Rico (where turnout is usually over 80% of the electorate), but imagine 50% turnout in the states in a primary. That is remarkable. I would add that that would project that a million voters will vote on Sunday.

If Clinton wins by 13, and a million voters come out, then Clinton would gain 130,000 in the popular vote contest. Not a bad day at all for her.

The was a Greenberg poll done in the way Puerto Rico polls generally are done - in face to face at home interviews. the likely voter numbers are actually 59-40 for Clinton. This is a meaningful poll.

By Big Tent Democrat

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  • Display: Sort:
    Sounds like HRC (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by madamab on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:07:11 PM EST
    may well be on track to do exactly what she needs to do to "prove" her argument to the SD's.

    Will they put their fingers in their ears and yell "La la la, I can't HEAR YOU?"

    Or do they really want to lose in November?

    Well, the argument will be that (5.00 / 4) (#3)
    by MarkL on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:08:19 PM EST
    Puerto Rico doesn't count because they don't vote in November---I guarantee it.
    I wonder how many Boricuas live in the 58 states?

    [ Parent ]
    On that point. . . (5.00 / 2) (#7)
    by andgarden on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:10:30 PM EST
    When asked how important is the role of Puerto Rico to define the Democrat nomination, 46 percent said it is very important, 26 percent is something important, 13 percent believed was an unimportant, 14 per percent that nothing is important and 1 percent did not know or did not reply.


    [ Parent ]
    IOW, 74% believe it is important. (5.00 / 0) (#11)
    by madamab on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:13:29 PM EST
    La la la la la...we don't need those voters anyway...

    /SD's

    [ Parent ]

    Poop! 72%. (none / 0) (#18)
    by madamab on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:19:38 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Have to laugh... (5.00 / 4) (#29)
    by huzzlewhat on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:30:03 PM EST
    I assume this is a translation glitch, but I've gotta giggle at the 14% who think "nothing is important." Very Zen. :-)

    [ Parent ]
    Also truer than most poll questions :-) (none / 0) (#134)
    by RalphB on Wed May 28, 2008 at 04:00:10 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    It's the important ... (none / 0) (#149)
    by Robot Porter on Wed May 28, 2008 at 04:54:29 PM EST
    Puerto Rican Nihilist contingent.

    ;)

    [ Parent ]

    Doesn't Matter and we need to stop citing (5.00 / 4) (#14)
    by PssttCmere08 on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:16:27 PM EST
    "they are going to say PR doesn't count" because it does Blanche, it does.

    They can say it til they are blue in the face, but it will count no matter how much obamaholics wish it wouldn't.

    FYI...there are many boricuas residing in the 50 states.  I cannot speak for the recent eight additional states!  :)

    [ Parent ]

    In New York (none / 0) (#17)
    by madamab on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:19:08 PM EST
    this population is very high.

    A "safe" blue state?

    Maybe not.

    [ Parent ]

    LOL! (none / 0) (#8)
    by madamab on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:11:30 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    And if you see (none / 0) (#23)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:24:08 PM EST
    such idiotic statements, remind the people that the true TRAVESTY is that PR doesn't have a voice in November, then ask them how they'd feel if they had no say in electing their own head of state?  

    [ Parent ]
    My guess (5.00 / 1) (#4)
    by cmugirl on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:09:20 PM EST
    They already have their fingers in their ears.  

    All we have to wait for is the temper tantrum and stomping of feet.

    [ Parent ]

    They (5.00 / 2) (#6)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:09:54 PM EST
    want to lose. If someone like Rockefeller can support a candidate that lost is state by 41 pts in a primary and will lose to McCain in the fall in his state you have to definitely say they aren't interested in winning are they? It seems to me that they are determined to lose no how they are presented with the facts.

    [ Parent ]
    If that's right (5.00 / 2) (#47)
    by Daryl24 on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:57:24 PM EST
    then the question is why?

    [ Parent ]
    Because (none / 0) (#71)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:23:24 PM EST
    they are afraid to do the right thing. They'd rather lose with Obama than win with Hillary is my guess.

    [ Parent ]
    yup, where are these senators' loyalty. (5.00 / 1) (#49)
    by hellothere on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:58:44 PM EST
    i guarantee the american people don't have it.

    [ Parent ]
    I don't think they want to lose (5.00 / 3) (#58)
    by RonK Seattle on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:15:26 PM EST
    I don't think they've read the warning signs of defeat yet, either. Many of them are still caught up in Obama's early wave of big rallies and "goosebumps" speeches, his early appeal to independent voters and disgruntled Republicans, and still have visions of a landslide victory or a generational realignment.

    They're living in the recent past's imaginary near future.

    I also think many of them don't care that much about losing the White House, IF an Obama candidacy brings them dollars, eager young volunteers, and record high African-American turnout in their home states. Those things can win down-ballot races, and that's where most superdelegates' bread is buttered.

    [ Parent ]

    So it's not (5.00 / 1) (#62)
    by madamab on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:16:29 PM EST
    wanting to lose - it's not caring enough to win.

    I'll buy that.

    [ Parent ]

    or, like my granny used to say (5.00 / 4) (#63)
    by Kathy on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:18:18 PM EST
    "I'm not pretending to listen.  I'm pretending to care."

    [ Parent ]
    That is why I do not think we should support (5.00 / 3) (#66)
    by honora on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:19:57 PM EST
    down-ticket Dems that are foolish enough  to support Obama.  The writing is on the wall and it is written in letters big enough that even the SDs should be able to read it w/o their glasses.  

    [ Parent ]
    They have to know (5.00 / 2) (#122)
    by KD on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:44:51 PM EST
    These people are professional politicians. Their jobs depend on knowing how people are going to vote. I can't believe that they don't know. They also know that caucuses are easily manipulated by small groups of insiders (I personally think that's why they want to start the process with the Iowa caucus.) and that red state votes may not mean much in the general election.

    I think they wanted to pull power away from the Clintons, but if Obama loses, there will be a big backlash, and the Clintons will end up with even more power and popularity.

    [ Parent ]

    And (5.00 / 1) (#139)
    by kenoshaMarge on Wed May 28, 2008 at 04:23:27 PM EST
    I believe that they honestly believe that when push comes to shove all the good little Dems will come home to the party come November. And nothing we say, any of us say, will change that perception.

    [ Parent ]
    Well (none / 0) (#76)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:27:32 PM EST
    it's a lose lose for the ones here in GA. Right now Barrow still has a primary opponent in the Dem primary and if he survives that, endorsing Obama is likely to cost him in the general election. He's really put a lot of them in a pickle. Besides, lots of districts are majority AA and getting more AA's to turn out will do nothing for those representatives like Scott and Lewis.

    [ Parent ]
    Wha? (none / 0) (#135)
    by Jim J on Wed May 28, 2008 at 04:04:36 PM EST
    Barrow's district is 40 percent African-American. Assuming Obama's on the ballot in November -- which I realize almost no one at Talk Left has fully digested as the likely possibility -- how do you figure his Obama endorsement is problematic (assuming he survives the primary challenge)? This seems like incredibly selective reasoning.

    [ Parent ]
    Oh (5.00 / 1) (#158)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed May 28, 2008 at 05:36:27 PM EST
    I've digested the fact that the Dem establishment wants Obama. The problem is that you haven't digested the fact that he's likely to lose in Nov. Remember Carter having a 20 pt lead over Ford in 1976 and what happened in the end? Obama doesn't even have a lead to start with.

    I've heard all this "it's a dem year" before but in the end people are going to vote for the candidate not the party and if you have a bad candidate then it greatly reduces your odds.

    [ Parent ]

    You're right about Barrow (none / 0) (#138)
    by andgarden on Wed May 28, 2008 at 04:21:09 PM EST
    His district is like a slightly more black Mississippi.

    [ Parent ]
    Did you (none / 0) (#154)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed May 28, 2008 at 05:32:13 PM EST
    read what I said? And since when is 40% enough to win? That's my point.

    [ Parent ]
    40-point losses (none / 0) (#147)
    by kirkaracha on Wed May 28, 2008 at 04:40:58 PM EST
    Do Senator Clinton's 40-point-plus losses in the Virgin Islands (83 points) and DC (52 points) count?

    [ Parent ]
    Are you (5.00 / 1) (#156)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed May 28, 2008 at 05:34:17 PM EST
    aware of the fact that the Virgin Islands was a caucus not a primary?

    [ Parent ]
    Thanks (5.00 / 1) (#5)
    by andgarden on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:09:29 PM EST
    My quick google translate provides this:

    On the question of how they feel regarding the candidates, 52 percent of respondents understood that their feelings are very favorable toward Clinton and 42 percent believed the same thing regarding Obama.



    That is a fair translation (none / 0) (#10)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:12:56 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    The google engineers aren't bad (5.00 / 1) (#12)
    by andgarden on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:15:16 PM EST
    Some of the translation was much less intelligible, though.

    [ Parent ]
    Volunteers are working on getting out the (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by nulee on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:11:31 PM EST
    'tombacocos' (BTD please correct me if that is not right! new word for me).  San Juan seems to have a lot but we are starting to fan out over the island as we get close to Sunday.  

    hmmm does the (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by TruthMatters on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:15:30 PM EST
    that memo talk about the pop vote? because if she only nets around 130,000 from PR and she is only up 55,000 when you count FL and MI but give Obama 0

    that means she would be up roughly 180,000 with Obama still having SD,MT and the 230,000 unaccounted for votes from MI.

    hard to make a Pop vote argument then say those 230,000 votes, lets forget about those. hmmmm now its all about the turn out for PR.

    It's easy to make a pop. vote argument (5.00 / 2) (#16)
    by MarkL on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:17:40 PM EST
    that excludes Obama's nonexistent MI total.
    He is the one who prevented MI residents from voting for him. It would be an unprecedented outrage to count votes which were not cast for him.

    [ Parent ]
    thats an argument against (5.00 / 2) (#19)
    by TruthMatters on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:20:52 PM EST
    Obama, not the 230,000 voters, remember we don't like punishing the voters for the actions beyond their control?

    if you were one of them wouldn't you want to be counted?

    [ Parent ]

    Come on now. (5.00 / 4) (#22)
    by madamab on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:22:57 PM EST
    Obama is the one punishing the voters.

    And in a democracy, we don't give votes to someone who wasn't even on the ballot.

    [ Parent ]

    Hot Springs Harriet's comments (5.00 / 2) (#60)
    by Jeralyn on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:16:19 PM EST
    have been deleted. She has been banned as four different users. This account is also now erased.

    [ Parent ]
    The troll thing (5.00 / 1) (#127)
    by txpolitico67 on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:47:51 PM EST
    is going to get worse before it gets better.  I am getting more troll traffic on my own blog because of my pro-Clinton views.

    They wanna give me the time and the clicks, fine by me.

    [ Parent ]

    The thing is (5.00 / 2) (#38)
    by rnibs on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:46:04 PM EST
    that Hillary's message resonates with people and will be the winning message in Nov.  Obama's hasn't been resonating with the majority since March, and he can't just use her's in Nov.  It won't sound authentic, so her card, which I believe is the winning card, can't be carries believably by anyone but her.

    Basically, it's the economy, stupid, all over again.

    If she's not in the GE, then neither Obama nor McCain will be able to speak convincingly about the economy, because it's not their thing.  Then it just comes down to who they like better, and that will be McCain.

    These are the things that the SD's need to consider, and they are free to consider what ever they want, so, since she's close enough to win the nom., it doesn't matter what the numbers are.  They can still (wisely, imo) chose her, as have the voters, ever since March.

    [ Parent ]

    It'll (5.00 / 1) (#44)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:54:08 PM EST
    be more than who you like. It'll also be about who'll keep you safe. Obama absolutely fails on that account.

    [ Parent ]
    Resonating (5.00 / 1) (#137)
    by kirkaracha on Wed May 28, 2008 at 04:16:23 PM EST
    Obama's hasn't been resonating with the majority since March

    Except in North Carolina and Oregon, and (according to the latest polls) in Montana and South Dakota.

    These are the things that the SD's need to consider

    They are considering those things, and they've been breaking 4-1 for Obama since the beginning of May.

    [ Parent ]

    Al Gore wasn't on the ballot either (5.00 / 1) (#52)
    by ineedalife on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:05:42 PM EST
    But I'm sure alot of those people would have voted for him.

    Face it, Obama wasn't on the ballot of his own choosing. The uncommitted vote should be reported as uncommitted. You can argue later that a certain portion would have voted for Obama, but at least deal with reality first, then the hypothetical. Any total of popular vote should have X for Hillary, Y for Obama, and Z for other. Hillary and Obama both may be represented in the other.

    [ Parent ]

    If a politician though takes their name off the (5.00 / 1) (#87)
    by frankly0 on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:36:51 PM EST
    ballot, at least in most circumstances, that really is a special case.

    If in an ordinary election, a politician takes their name off the ballot, or if, say, he doesn't happen to get enough signatures to put his name on the ballot, we don't count votes for him unless, say, people write in his name. Point is, even if the people might have wanted to have voted for him, they didn't do so in fact, and what they would have done had his name been on the ballot really don't count for anything in those circumstances.

    My understanding is that Obama had no obligation at all to remove his name from the ballot, and chose to do so for his own reasons.

    It's certainly not obvious to me that counting any portion of the uncommitted vote as being "intended" for him under the circumstances in MI is really the fair thing to do. I'd really have to have a better understanding of what the real circumstances and obligations were of his pulling his name off the ballot.

    [ Parent ]

    Michigan (none / 0) (#140)
    by kirkaracha on Wed May 28, 2008 at 04:24:03 PM EST
    Obama, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, and John Edwards all took their names off the Michigan ballot because they, along with Senator Clinton, signed a pledge not to campaign or participate in the Michigan primary.

    According to exit polls 35% of the people who voted in the Michigan primary would have voted for Obama if he'd been on the ballot. Not counting any portion of the uncommitted vote doesn't seem at all fair to me.

    [ Parent ]

    No, Obama engineered that (5.00 / 3) (#142)
    by masslib on Wed May 28, 2008 at 04:31:30 PM EST
    farce to embarrass Hillary because he knew he was going to lose.  Let's try for a little intellectual honesty.

    [ Parent ]
    Doesn't it seem (none / 0) (#145)
    by frankly0 on Wed May 28, 2008 at 04:36:21 PM EST
    just a bit odd, if Obama took his name off the ballot in order to comply with what he believed was the only correct understanding of his pledge, that he would, apparently, wait until the last possible day to do so? What did he understand on that day that he didn't understand on any of the previous days and weeks and months?

    On the other hand, if he wanted to wait due to reasons of political opportunism, it would make perfect sense for him to wait until the last possible day because he would leave his options open if something came up to keep his name on the ballot until that point.

    [ Parent ]

    And Clinton, Dodd, Kucinich And Gravel (none / 0) (#150)
    by MO Blue on Wed May 28, 2008 at 05:00:26 PM EST
    left their names on the ballot. Nothing in the pledge required any candidate to remove their name from the ballot in MI. Obama chose to pander to IA and NH and took his name off the ballot. If Obama supporters did not have  the opportunity to vote directly for him, it was because Obama chose not to give them that choice. He decided that IA and NH voters were more important than MI voters.

    [ Parent ]
    The democracy thing (5.00 / 8) (#20)
    by madamab on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:20:58 PM EST
    seems to be getting in the way of Obama's coronation.

    I find it most disturbing.

    ;-)

    [ Parent ]

    except that we don't live in a democracy (5.00 / 3) (#48)
    by independent thinker on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:58:03 PM EST
    In fact, we live in a libral democratic republic. We don't actually vote directly for our executive and the same is true of the Democratic Party's nomination process. In the GE we vote and electors are selected to represent us in the electoral college for each state. In the Democratic Party's nomination process we vote and delegates are selected to represent us based on the outcome in each state.

    If you favor a direct democratic-type nomination process then organize to change the process in the party, but don't go around trying to change the prcess in the middle.

    This process isn't just a set of guidelines. It is, in fact a legal process established by the DNC.

    Here's a section of a memo from the Democratic Party's lawyers regarding the Rules and Bylaws Committee:

    "A Democratic Party rules committee has the authority to seat some delegates from Michigan and Florida but not fully restore the two states as Hillary Rodham Clinton wants, according to party lawyers.

    Democratic National Committee rules require that the two states lose at least half of their convention delegates for holding elections too early, the party's legal experts wrote in a 38-page memo.

    The memo was sent late Tuesday to the 30 members of the party's Rules and Bylaws Committee, which plans to meet Saturday at a Washington hotel. The committee is considering ways to include the two important general election battlegrounds at the nominating convention in August, and the staff analysis says seating half the delegates is "as far as it legally can" go. [...]"

    Note...this is all about delegates and delegate counts. There is a reason for that. The current system does not count popular votes per se.

    The Clinton Campaign itself did not begin hammering on the popular vote until it became obvious that they would not have the nomination after Super Tuesday. Then, and only then, did they start talking about it. In fact, when everyone felt that Clinton was surely going to be the nominee, no one, including Clinton, showed any concern of FL or MI.

    Don't get me wrong, this situation is seriously FUBAR, and I hope that in future primaries the DNC makes some changes to its process. For starters, it would be nice if all states ran similar elections (eg: primaries)....or at the very least, if caucus states had to take a head count of participants who attended.

    There are some things to consider about direct democracy. Not the least of which is the disproportionate power that big urban areas would have over rural areas. Say what you want about delegate/electoral systems, but they do provide a little extra leverage to rural voters. This may not be a bad thing. After all, we all buy food grown in those rural areas. We probably don't want their voice lost in the mass of urban voters.

    OK. I'll end this now. Please be nice. I am not trying to convert anyone from their chosen candidate. I simply want to talk about how to improve the process in the future.

    Pease.

    [ Parent ]

    I'm always nice! :-) (5.00 / 1) (#59)
    by madamab on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:15:31 PM EST
    The Party Rules are not laws, however.

    And you're right, the nominating process is seriously FUBAR.

    [ Parent ]

    madamab....pls forgive me...That 2 rating was (none / 0) (#101)
    by PssttCmere08 on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:00:14 PM EST
    supposed to be for someone else....

    [ Parent ]
    LOL...no worries... (none / 0) (#108)
    by madamab on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:13:55 PM EST
    you can always switch those ratings if you'd like.

    I've made many such mistakes myself.

    [ Parent ]

    Really? I didn't know that....thanks for the tip! (5.00 / 1) (#113)
    by PssttCmere08 on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:21:01 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Sen. Clinton's comments . . . (5.00 / 1) (#96)
    by wurman on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:56:33 PM EST
    . . . in Dec, 2007, & her Press Release from Jan, 25, 2008, both expressly state that FL & MI need to be counted . . .

    . . . & in the Release she references that it is not correct to ignore the voters in FL (i.e., the popular vote).

    The Clinton campaign wants the FL & MI delegations to be represented as a matter of common sense.

    And, using not-so-common sense, EVERY reader here knows that the so-called "popular vote" does not decide the nomination.  It is a common sense argument being used by Sen. Clinton to sway the judgements of the superdelegates.

    At no time, no where, has Sen. Clinton or a surrogate attempted to change the rooolz & make "popular vote" the method of choosing a candidate.

    And the process will not change in the future.  The DNC has no sway over the various state legislatures which establish how people in the various states will vote.  At caucuses in my state the primary selection method was soundly rejected, whomped.

    [ Parent ]

    Well (5.00 / 3) (#98)
    by Evie on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:57:11 PM EST
    the lack of direct democracy does not mean that the voters can simply be ignored, dismissed, or disenfranchised.

    This is not about any particular political party. Disenfranchisement should not be acceptable to anyone who values democratic principles. The right to vote is not a pawn to play games with. Neither is it a toy that can be taken away as punishment.

    Over 2 million voters went to the polls in FL and MI to vote, and their votes were never counted. The voters did nothing wrong. Their voting rights must be honored.

    [ Parent ]

    I just said the same thing below! (5.00 / 1) (#103)
    by MMW on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:03:38 PM EST
    I couldn't agree more.

    [ Parent ]
    really? what about when a... (none / 0) (#115)
    by independent thinker on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:29:50 PM EST
    presumptive nominee emerges early? All those poor disenfranchised voters who don't get their say in election years when a nominee is found early. How many nominating years have there been when states didn't even hold primaries or caucuses because somewhere along the way someone decided their votes no longer counted. No one shed any tears then. Many of the arguements Clinton uses today would apply to those years too.

    [ Parent ]
    Irrelevant (5.00 / 3) (#136)
    by Evie on Wed May 28, 2008 at 04:09:04 PM EST
    Does the past make it ok to disenfranchise voters now?

    If the CHANGE that Obama represents is the disenfranchisement of over 2 million American voters, then that is change that this country can ill afford.

    Obama is not going to be able to leave his name off MI and FL ballots in the general election and then argue for a 50/50 split.

    [ Parent ]

    excellent points. (none / 0) (#141)
    by independent thinker on Wed May 28, 2008 at 04:27:40 PM EST
    I agree with this. If BO had the number of dels needed without FL and MI we probably wouldn't be having this discussion. However, even though he doesn't have that magic number, he does have the majority of the pledged dels. Even factoring in 50% of FL and MI being seated he still has the majority of the pledged dels. In a contest about delegates, and short of an outright victory, this is the closest thing to it.

    And considering that the only likely way Clinton edges Obama in the popular vote total is by seating FL and MI in the most favorable way possible to her AND by NOT counting 4 caucus states at all, I don't see a clear arguement for the supers to overturn the pledged delegate leader.

    But back to my question in my earlier post: do you believe Clinton would be pushing FL and MI if her postion was reversed with BO's? Be honest. If the answer is no, then tell me again what the justification for her continuing is?

    [ Parent ]

    yes, obviously true (3.00 / 2) (#54)
    by Tano on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:10:39 PM EST
    But it wont be hard for Clinton to make the argument none the less. All she need do is continue to claim, as she does, that all the Obama supporters in Michigan DO NOT COUNT.

    And of course, this would have no negative consequence in Nov. were she the nominee...

    [ Parent ]

    You mean the way that (5.00 / 3) (#61)
    by Kathy on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:16:22 PM EST
    Obama claims that all her supporters in FL and MI don't count?

    [ Parent ]
    almost, not exactly though (3.00 / 2) (#67)
    by Tano on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:20:13 PM EST
    she was the one who said those contests "would not count".

    [ Parent ]
    Before he even took his US senate seat (5.00 / 6) (#70)
    by Kathy on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:22:45 PM EST
    Obama said that he was not experienced enough to run for the presidency.  He said he would have to start campaigning, like, right now, in order to do it, but that he was completely unqualified.

    If we're going to go back in time and listen to the candidates' words, those are the ones I would like to start with, because I actually agree with them.

    [ Parent ]

    This Is One Thing Obama Said That I Agree With (5.00 / 2) (#105)
    by MO Blue on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:12:15 PM EST
    He is not experienced enough to be president.  

    [ Parent ]
    Ugh. (5.00 / 2) (#120)
    by ccpup on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:40:22 PM EST
    Another Republican ad -  "Even Obama himself says he's not experienced enough for the White House.  McCain has that experience ... " -- generously provided by Obama's own recent words.

    The Dem Party and I are damn near over at this point.  Got his bag packed and by the door and am just waiting for him to drive up and waltz into the house as if everything is hunkey-dorey so I can hand him his suitcase and say "sayonara".

    [ Parent ]

    Obama is of similar age and has... (3.00 / 2) (#118)
    by independent thinker on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:36:09 PM EST
    similar number of years in elected office as Bill Clinton did when he ran for POTUS. You don't seem to have a problem with his lack of experience at the time. Abraham Lincold had one tern in the House when he became President. No one thinks he lacked the skills to be POTUS. Years spend in Washington D.C. do not necessarily equate to great leadership in a POTUS. Don't get me wrong, I think Hillary has many fine skills to bring to the the office, but don't be so quick to downplay Barack's skills.

    [ Parent ]
    Heh (5.00 / 6) (#123)
    by Steve M on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:45:17 PM EST
    It's an impressive bit of spin when Obama's years as a part-time state legislator are equated with Bill Clinton's years as the chief executive of an entire state, with both conflated under the header "similar number of years in elected office."  But I hope you understand what a lame argument it is in reality.

    [ Parent ]
    I do not see it that way. (5.00 / 1) (#148)
    by independent thinker on Wed May 28, 2008 at 04:53:23 PM EST
    My entire post was not just about BO and BC's respective years in office. That was just part of it. My larger point, one demonstrated by including Abraham Lincoln, is that years in public office (including governorships) does not necessarily equate with being a good POTUS. There have been many compatent POTUSes who did not have long years of elected office experience who turned out to be great at the job and also bad POTUSes who did have many years of elected office experience.

    And btw...I think Bill was an OK POTUS. However, I definitely do not conflate his experience with Hillary's. She was not POTUS or Governor. She is, however a 1.5-term Senator who happens to be married to a former governor/POTUS. Sorry, she doesn't get to claim executive experience because she is married to one.

    [ Parent ]

    The Obama as Lincoln argument (5.00 / 2) (#153)
    by MarkL on Wed May 28, 2008 at 05:22:18 PM EST
    is pretty old now.


    [ Parent ]
    Old and very stupid IMHO :-) (5.00 / 1) (#159)
    by RalphB on Wed May 28, 2008 at 05:40:55 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    I don't think we are permitted to (none / 0) (#163)
    by oculus on Wed May 28, 2008 at 09:00:47 PM EST
    link Obama to Lincoln anymore.  (Whisper:  Lincoln was assassinated.)

    [ Parent ]
    Seriously? (5.00 / 6) (#126)
    by cmugirl on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:47:36 PM EST
    That's your argument??  Um, Bill Clinton didn't lack experience when he took office.  He was Attorney General of Arkansas, and then he was Governor for almost 13 years (with a short break when he got voted out, but came back to win again and serve another 10 years).

    Being Governor, even of a small state, brings with it executive experience. While none of the candidates running now have executive experience, Obama's total legislative experience adds up to 8 years as a part-time legislator in Illinois (28 months), and 3 years in the US Senate, 2 of which where he's been running for President.

    This is the silliest comparison I've heard to date.

    [ Parent ]

    Please, such a lame argument. (5.00 / 2) (#144)
    by masslib on Wed May 28, 2008 at 04:36:14 PM EST
    Bill Clinton was a 5 term Governor, the most senior Governor in the country at the time, and the head of the Governor's association, giving him experience in national policy.  But really this is just a nonsense argument.  Lincoln was inexperienced, Obama is inexperienced(I, for one, can not even find proof a prior fulltime job) therefore Obama=Lincoln, and experience is no longer even relevant in reviewing candidates for POTUS?  Silly.

    [ Parent ]
    I never said experience was ... (none / 0) (#152)
    by independent thinker on Wed May 28, 2008 at 05:18:28 PM EST
    irrelavent. I simply pointed out that experience does not necessarily lead to a good POTUS. harry Truman, widely regarded as one of the worst POTUSes ever, had a lengthy public office career beginning with a County Court administrative post in 1925, US Senate from 1934-1944 and ending with him being VP for Roosevelt in 1944. That was a total of nearly 20 years of elected office PRIOR to becomng POTUS...and yet he was a miserable POTUS.

    I am not saying Hillary Clinton would be a Harry Truman--far from...she really is a good policy wonk. I am merely pointing out that years in office does not automatically make a good POTUS. Obama has some interesting life experience and I like that he lectured on Constitutional law. That is a HUGE plus to me considering the beating the Contitution has taken from the current administration.

    And again, I am not here to change anyone's mind about their prefered Democratic candidate. We will know who the nominee is soon enough. And either way, we need to rally around that candidate, IMO. McCain would be a disaster for us.

    Peace.

    [ Parent ]

    Well, I'm discomforted by Obama's (none / 0) (#157)
    by masslib on Wed May 28, 2008 at 05:36:04 PM EST
    total lack of relevant experience for running the federal government.  

    [ Parent ]
    Golly gee, (4.00 / 4) (#125)
    by madamab on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:47:03 PM EST
    Unless Obama was suddenly elected governor of the 57th State, that's one of the silliest talking points I've ever heard.

    [ Parent ]
    Those Obama comments would make the (none / 0) (#164)
    by bridget on Wed May 28, 2008 at 10:11:33 PM EST
    perfect TV ad

    Hillary should have used it

    bet the Republicans will in Nov. should he be the nom which I hope he wont be.

    [ Parent ]

    Since when (5.00 / 1) (#100)
    by Evie on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:58:13 PM EST
    do voting rights depend on what a candidate says or does not say?

    [ Parent ]
    Let's see: if she claimed FL should count (5.00 / 1) (#117)
    by wurman on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:33:29 PM EST
    . . . 4 days before they held their primary, does that mean she only started worrying about FL & MI after she knew she had won? Michigan Live link:
    The presidential candidate said Friday -- just four days before Florida's primary -- that she wants the convention delegates from Florida and Michigan reinstated. The national party eliminated all the delegates from those states -- more than 350 in all -- because they broke party rules against holding their primaries before Feb. 5. All the major Democratic candidates also made pledges not to campaign in those states before their primaries.

    And if she's ahead when arguing that MI & FL should count, does that still really, actually mean that she only changed her position when she was behind? Or is down now up?  Same Link:

    Clinton leads Obama in the overall delegate count, 237 to 140, including separately chosen party and elected officials known as superdelegates. A total of 2,025 delegates are needed to secure the Democratic nomination

    There has been no point at which Sen. Clinton did not insist that the votes in FL & MI & the delegates should NOT count.

    [ Parent ]

    Yes, this is true, but... (5.00 / 1) (#133)
    by independent thinker on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:56:19 PM EST
    by that time is was becoming obvious that the fight would go beyond Super Tuesday. The virtual encumbent message has not worked and the campaign was retooling for the long slog to where we are now. I'm not saying it was a bad ploy, but Hillary Clinton agreed to the same rules that Biden, Dodd, Kusinich, Richardson and Obama. And those rules stated clearly that only four states could hold there elections in January. Hillary Clinton and all the rest agree to rules that required sanctions for any states that violated the rules.

    Don't get me wrong, I am not a complete rules, rules, rules guy. I can see the problems with FL and MI. Clearly some compromise needs to be reached. From where I sit, the most likely outcome is the FL and MI delegates are cut 50% and FL is seated in the same ratio as the results showed and the MI delegates end up being split in some fashion (perhaps 55% Clinton 40% Obama with the remainder going uncommitted...or more likely 55% Clinton 45% Obama). Is this perfect? Of course not. Is it a reasonable compromise? In my opinion, yes--yes it is.

    PS:  I also believe that Clinton really does favor in a direct popular vote system. She has made comments which imply that view of things that pre-date this nomination season. And that is a debate we should be having for how we as a society want to conduct our democracy. But in the here and now, in the system agreed upon by everyone prior to getting started, Clinton's arguement rings as a little too self-serving. What do you think she would be saying if this situation were reversed? Do you really think she would be pushing for FL and MI in the same way she is now? Be honest.

    And finally...back to PR. I think it is unjust that citizens of the us don't get to vote for POTUS in the GE. Why only states? If a territory or protectory is considered part of the USA, then IMO those people should get to vote.

    Peace.

    [ Parent ]

    No. (none / 0) (#162)
    by wurman on Wed May 28, 2008 at 06:52:05 PM EST
    It is not self-serving.

    Her position predates all of the nominating processes, before she knew any "results."

    Further, the FL primary was moved up by the GOoPerz in the legislature to "game" the Democratic Party & create this exact situation.  Sen. Clinton was aware of this at the outset & has argued that the DNC applied the wrong rules.  Her comments at that time in early 2007, however, have not been covered in the media, so I can't reference them to you.

    Big Tent has an entire Post about this, but not from the Clinton point of view--more generally.

    My view is that Sen. Clinton has consistently held a position based on the principles (and a sharp weathereye to the general election) rather than some advantage to her campaign.  She was too far out in front on this one & the Obama campaign has made the contrary into an endless talking point--because they are on the detrimental end of the "fair" or "equitable" or "justifiable" decision.  Sen. Obama's position is in fact totally self-serving & looks unfair on the face of it--although they could just be idiots over there.

    [ Parent ]

    There's too many ways (5.00 / 1) (#45)
    by cannondaddy on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:55:12 PM EST
    of counting popular vote.  

    Each SD gets to pick the one that makes most (none / 0) (#73)
    by honora on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:24:05 PM EST
    sense to him/her.  Now, wasn't that easy.

    [ Parent ]
    New Michigan poll (5.00 / 1) (#91)
    by ajain on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:45:03 PM EST
    McCain 41 Obama 37.
    They aren't polling Clinton, but its clear Obama has a serious problem in that region and if he loses MI, FL and OH then he has a big, big problem.

    Link

    No VP Candidate Puts Him Ahead Of McCain (5.00 / 1) (#111)
    by MO Blue on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:18:25 PM EST
    either. Edwards brings him within 3%, Clinton and Gore within 5%.

    [ Parent ]
    but but but, (none / 0) (#131)
    by txpolitico67 on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:52:54 PM EST
    Idaho, Utah and Wyoming will pull through for Obama.  Did you not witness the sound thrashing he gave Hillary there?

    Governor Sebelius (sorry I don't care to ck the spelling of her name) will deliver KS for Barack as well.

    MI...notta problem.  Let McCain have it! /s

    [ Parent ]

    Idaho won't come through for Obama. (5.00 / 1) (#146)
    by masslib on Wed May 28, 2008 at 04:37:09 PM EST
    Ron Paul outperformed him there last night.

    [ Parent ]
    Clinton talk on PR (5.00 / 1) (#92)
    by davnee on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:46:02 PM EST
    The Clinton campaign has talked very confidently on the expected result in PR, and for that matter the resolution of FL/MI.  I go back and forth between the explanation for this confidence being (1) the bravado needed to keep the campaign afloat to June 3rd, where if the hope pans out then great and if not then just concede, or (2) that the Clinton campaign knows more than we realize about the ground conditions in PR and/or the backstage wheeling and dealing on FL/MI, and that knowledge has them dropping hints about going to Denver.  I guess we'll see after this weekend.  But I'm impatient of course.  Not to mention still hopeful for the long shot.

    I commented on this earlier. (5.00 / 2) (#124)
    by ccpup on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:45:29 PM EST
    The Clintons are not politically stupid people.  If she's still in, there must be very clear signs that the Nomination is within her grasp despite the Media and Obama's premature Victory Laps.

    I can't imagine the SDs are unaware of the disaster looming in November if Obama is the Nominee ... unless they want Howard Dean and Donna Brazile out of the DNC and this is the best way to do it (a huge loss in November with a joke of a candidate in Obama, that is).

    I get the sense the GE isn't the DNC's focus.  Something else is.  But that something else is driving people away from them and out of the party as well as severely damaging their fundraising.

    And to think Dean was ALMOST our Nominee for President not so long ago.

    Ugh.

    [ Parent ]

    Obama (none / 0) (#132)
    by txpolitico67 on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:53:53 PM EST
    may very well be Geo. McGovern 2.0 for the Dems if he goes to the nom.

    [ Parent ]
    well said. n/t (none / 0) (#119)
    by Lil on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:39:31 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    IMO, She can use all the votes she got (5.00 / 1) (#97)
    by MMW on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:56:49 PM EST
    in her argument. Whether the delegates are counted or not, you cannot disappear two million votes and call this a democracy. Nothing will change the fact that these people voted and they have nothing to do with the controversy. They did not move the Primaries, they did not agree to not have their votes count, they did not separate from the US. Those votes MUST be counted as cast.

    If his name was not on the ballot, he cannot receive votes, that is unethical.

    Focus on marginal states (5.00 / 1) (#99)
    by zebedee on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:58:04 PM EST
    In a real election even one vote could determine the winner but here the popular vote overall is a tie as far as moral arguments go, such as "teh will of the voters". A win by 100k or so out of 37m votes is less that 0.3%.

    The real argument is electability, by looking at the popular vote in the swing states. Using the winner-takes-all EV system, she lead 185-117 EVs, using all states that had a margin within 10.85% (this was the biggest swing from 2000 to 2004). With these states, she has received 235K more votes than him. If you give him ALL the uncommitted votes, he leads by just under 3K. Although it's tight either way, the EV distribution makes her a clear choice on electability arguments.

     And this does include IL (swing 10.4% from 00-04), where he got a near 700K advantage but excludes her home state of NY. Unless you think IL could go repub, you could end up with an HRC pop vote advanta of around 1m in marginal states.  

    That turnout number (5.00 / 1) (#106)
    by facta non verba on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:13:01 PM EST
    seems low. Boricuas vote in large numbers. 2.1 million last cycle out of 2.5 million registered voters.

    Tombacoccos (5.00 / 1) (#109)
    by Wry on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:14:26 PM EST
    if I'm not mistaken Tombacocos (I'm not sure I spelled it right) are political parades with music either live or from a sound truck. They are an important part of campaigning in Nuyorican neighborhoods as well.

    OT - regarding Michigan - Kos at DAILY KOS wrote a piece on January 2 of 2008 as to why Obama was wrong to take his name off the ballot. We should distribute it all over - make it viral -This was just before he mysteriously converted over night to an Obama cultist.

    I like the way you think...and Kos sooooo (5.00 / 1) (#112)
    by PssttCmere08 on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:20:10 PM EST
    needs to be taken down a peg or two.  He has just become vile.

    [ Parent ]
    I wonder (none / 0) (#2)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:07:52 PM EST
    who the undecideds will go to? If they split them that would be a 12 pt. win for Hillary and yes, netting her over 100,000 votes. Hopefully she will get more than that.

    what's the threshold (none / 0) (#34)
    by Kathy on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:35:45 PM EST
    for her to take 4 of the 6 categories for winning the popular vote?

    [ Parent ]
    Depends (4.00 / 1) (#42)
    by waldenpond on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:47:13 PM EST
    Do you count the NV and WA actual primaries or go with RCPs estimates.  Using RCP she needs to net 274k with the last 3 contests.  

    I expect to lose possible 80k in MT and SD (if anyone has an idea on those I would appreciate it, I am going with Obama's estimates of a 15 pt win in SD and an 11 pt win in MT) depending on turnout.  So she needs 274 + 80 or 354k.  It looks like a struggle unless PR has high turnout and MT/SD low turnout.  Still has a very strong argument for momentum at the end of the primary (not to mention the last months)
    RCP

    [ Parent ]

    clear as mud (4.00 / 1) (#46)
    by Kathy on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:55:13 PM EST
    not what you said, though, but the "depends" part.

    What a mess.

    [ Parent ]

    Ignoring MI? (none / 0) (#78)
    by zebedee on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:28:35 PM EST
    Your 274K number in RCP includes FL but not MI. If you include MI Hillary leads by 54K or trals by 183k if you give Obama all the uncommitteds

    [ Parent ]
    RCP metrics (5.00 / 1) (#102)
    by waldenpond on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:00:22 PM EST
    the question was what would Clinton have to do to achieve 4 of the 6 metrics.  The multiple counts refers to RCP.  That is the count I was referring to.  I attached the RCP link.  

    I use caucus estimates except NB and WA where I use actuals and undecideds go to Obama.  By my numbers, Clinton needs to clear 190k.  But my numbers mean bupkus.  :)

    [ Parent ]

    The only thing we can be certain of (5.00 / 2) (#104)
    by Kathy on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:07:57 PM EST
    is that Clinton will use the popular vote most advantageous to her, while Obama will use the one most advantageous to him...even as he argues that the popular vote does not matter.

    Yep, a mess.

    [ Parent ]

    I think she needs to net 500,000 (none / 0) (#36)
    by nulee on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:38:59 PM EST
    in the next few weeks??  We hope to do this in PR!

    [ Parent ]
    Has anyone updated the horserace (none / 0) (#15)
    by Teresa on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:16:40 PM EST
    spreadsheet since Kentucky and Oregon?

    Running it quickly (5.00 / 2) (#21)
    by andgarden on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:22:34 PM EST
    it looks like Obama will have a 50-100,000 pop. vote edge at the end of the day, assuming this poll is right.

    [ Parent ]
    Only if you give him the uncomitteds (5.00 / 1) (#24)
    by masslib on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:24:30 PM EST
    in MI.  I don't.

    [ Parent ]
    See, this is why I won't (5.00 / 6) (#26)
    by madamab on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:27:14 PM EST
    vote Obama.

    How can we reward a guy who removes his name from the ballot, then expects to be given votes anyway? It's ludicrous and un-democratic behavior.

    If HRC tried to argue that she deserved votes from a state where she'd removed her name from the ballot, she'd be laughed out of existence.

    [ Parent ]

    Exactly (5.00 / 2) (#50)
    by rnibs on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:59:15 PM EST
    they would laugh her out of existence, but somehow, the media acts as though he's owed it.  

    [ Parent ]
    If you give Obama exit poll #'s instead of (5.00 / 0) (#27)
    by Teresa on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:27:49 PM EST
    all uncommitted, she's within 10,000 with a PR win of 130,000 if I did my math right.

    [ Parent ]
    I do neither. (5.00 / 1) (#40)
    by masslib on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:46:20 PM EST
    I go by votes actually cast.  I also