Our other threads are full (and I still haven't made it to the jail but I'm trying) so here's another one.

Blogcloggers don't bother, your comments will be erased when I return.

• South Dakota thread here

• Montana Thread here

Update: Statement from Clinton Campaign:

The AP story is incorrect. Senator Clinton will not concede the nomination this evening.

Update: The Clinton campaign has sent out a press release denying the AP report. She will not suspend her campaign tonight nor will she concede Obama is the defacto winner. I just got off the phone with her internet communications director who told me he just received a copy.

So now the AP is falling for a story the only effect of which would be voter suppression in two states? How do these things happen? [More...]

Suddenly the pressures fallin, fallin
Skies have all turned grey
Suddenly the storm is heading straight your way

Its like a full force gale
Atop a mountain of cold
You tell your story again and again
And it never gets old
Its like a wall of mirrors
You charge em at full speed
You cover up - you hear the shattering glass
But you never bleed

Storms pass. I'm off to the jail for several hours. This is an open thread, all topics welcome.

Comments now closed.

This is disturbing news from Venezuela:

President Hugo Chávez has used his decree powers to carry out a major overhaul of this country’s intelligence agencies, provoking a fierce backlash here from human rights groups and legal scholars who say the measures will force citizens to inform on one another to avoid prison terms.

. . . The new law requires people in the country to comply with requests to assist the agencies, secret police or community activist groups loyal to Mr. Chávez. Refusal can result in prison terms of two to four years for most people and four to six years for government employees. “We are before a set of measures that are a threat to all of us,” said Blanca Rosa Mármol de León, a justice on Venezuela’s top court, in a rare public judicial dissent. “I have an obligation to say this, as a citizen and a judge. This is a step toward the creation of a society of informers.”

Bump and Update: Today should be the day for a verdict in the Tony Rezko trial. There seems to be some consensus among trial watchers that count 16, the attempted extortion count, is the one the jury did not agree on. We'll see if a good night's sleep and a dynamite charge from the judge made a difference. Or, if they decided last night and the judge just held the verdict until this morning.

Bump and Update: The jury went home without announcing a verdict and will return in the morning. It may be they reached one but due to the late hour, the judge is holding it until the morning. That's not uncommon in high profile cases.

***

The jury deliberating the fate of Tony Rezko sent the judge a note today saying it cannot agree on 1 of the 24 counts against him. I guess that means they've decided on the other 23 counts. The judge told them to keep deliberating. [More...]

There are conflicting news reports on whether Barack Obama will declare victory tonight in the presidential nomination.

This morning on Good Morning America, George Stephanapoulus said he will:

"He will declare victory tonight in a moment of history," ABC News' chief Washington correspondent George Stephanopoulous told "Good Morning America."

Obama, D-Ill., is expected to speak shortly after 10 p.m. Eastern while the votes are still being counted in the final two primary states of Montana and South Dakota....

I think Obama's response will depend on what Hillary does. She will be speaking in New York tonight. While some media reports say she will concede the race, others say she will not and will take another day to make her case to superdelegates that she is more electable in November.

So long as Hillary remains in the race, and Barack Obama does not have 2,118 pledged delegates, I think he will avoid claiming he has won the nomination, giving Hillary the time she needs to make whatever decision she is going to make.

That certainly would be his wisest course.

Unlike Jeralyn, I believe this campaign is all but over and Barack Obama will be the nominee. Believing that, most of my thoughts have been focused on how Democrats make sure they do not kick away an election they should win comfortably. What concerns me most is whether the impulse we read from many Obama supporters and in the Media to purge the Democratic Party of its Clinton Wing is the thinking of the Obama campaign. Last night, Josh Marshall provided a variation on this theme:

I think the most revealing thing . . . is that Bill refers to the youtube viral video of Rev. Pfleger as "the movie." In a sense, of course, this is just a triviality of word choice; he's a little out of touch with the lingo. But for me -- maybe just the personal prism through which I see the drama -- it communicates the larger truth: that Bill is a man out of his time, out of his element, which is something painful to watch and must be a unique agony for him to experience.

I find this a dangerous attitude for two main reasons. First, because Marshall seems prepared to toss out the Democratic strength of being able to point to the Clinton Presidency as an example of Democratic governance. Second, it seems to me to show a real contempt for older people, who, in case people have forgotten, STILL vote in higher numbers that the much vaunted youth vote. It is a dangerous game to play. More.

Here's the link to Lobby Superdelegates.

Pick your state, tell them you are a constituent and make your case for your favorite candidate.

Superdelegates can make up their minds or change their minds anytime up until the convention. So long as Hillary stays in the race, there is no victor. As of tonight and tomorrow, this is a two person race.

Obama leads in pledged delegates, but doesn't have the magic number. Hillary leads in the popular vote. More people have voted for her than Obama.

With neither candidate winning both the pledged delegate total and the popular vote, the question is, who is more electable in November and who can better lead our country?

Don't be shy, this may be your last chance.

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At an appearance in Sioux Falls Monday night, Hillary Clinton said she is getting ready to begin the next phase of her campaign -- convincing superdelegates that she is more electable in November and better able to lead the country as President. This was her 5th visit to the state.

Clinton hinted that she isn’t ready to abandon her campaign, even though Sen. Barack Obama leads her in delegates. Clinton has no chance of making up her deficit in the remaining contests.

But Clinton and her supporters will make the case to superdelegates that her lead in the popular vote, and her wins in several key states, make her the strongest candidate. “We have a very strong case to make that I am in the best position to take back the White House,” she said.

From a briefing book (pdf) prepared for the primary on South Dakota: [More...]

Update: Turnout is expected to be high.

We took a look at South Dakota here. Now it's time for Montana. From a briefing book:

Montana has 16 pledged delegates an 9 superdelegates. It has long been assumed to be in Barack Obama's corner.

Total population: 958,000. The African American population is 0.4%. Latino is 2.5% and Native American is anywhere between 6.3%.

There are 628,429 Registered Voters, not compiled by party.

Because its polls close an hour later than South Dakota's, it will get bragging rights as being the state to push a candidate over the top or at least close out this primary season.

The last Democrat to win in the presidential general election in Montana was Bill Clinton in 1992, perhaps because Ross Perot took votes from the Republican candidate. Bush won big in both 2000 and 2004.

The Rocky Mountain News reports:

Sen. Ken Salazar joined a small group of fellow undecided Democratic superdelegates on Capitol Hill today, but said they reached no agreement on whether to endorse a presidential candidate as a group.

The gathering created a major stir amid published reports that up to 15 previously uncommitted senators were on the verge of giving a united endorsement to Democratic front-runner Sen. Barack Obama.

Salazar said he could make the case for either candidate. Others at the meeting included: Sens. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa; Ben Cardin, D-Md.; and Tom Carper, D-Del. [More...]

Courtesy of TL reader Cream City, we have a new name for the recent influx of visitors who are clogging up the threads with multiple comments in an attempt to dominate, hijack or otherwise disrupt the conversation: Blogcloggers.

Blogcloggers are not welcome here. New users are limited to 10 comments in 24 hours and they must abide by our comment rules. More below, but if you don't like the policy, as the song says, Get Over It.