In any individual case, it's difficult to prove that racial profiling motivated a traffic stop. Law enforcement agencies seize upon that difficulty to argue that racial profiling doesn't occur. That was the response of the Los Angeles Police Department to a report (pdf) by Ian Ayres and Jonathan Borowsky for the ACLU of Southern California. Among the report's significant findings:

Per 10,000 residents, the black stop rate is 3,400 stops higher than the white stop rate, and the Hispanic stop rate is almost 360 stops higher. Relative to stopped whites, stopped blacks are 127% more likely and stopped Hispanics are 43% more likely to be frisked.

Despite the absence of empirical evidence that black or Hispanic drivers are more likely to violate traffic laws than white drivers, the LAPD refuses to acknowledge that the statistics reveal an underlying problem of racial profiling. [more ...]

Let's suppose for a moment John McCain was actually a serious person whose policy pronouncements merited attention. Today he said:

“The difference is that he thinks taxes have been too low, and I think that spending has been too high.” . . . “This election comes down to how you want your hard-earned money spent,” Mr. McCain said. Only Republicans, he said, favor policies that can “restore confidence and create economic growth.”

(Emphasis supplied.) Those are two pretty remarkable statements. First, on spending, what would McCain cut? Even if he eliminated all earmarks, that only amounts to 18 billion dollars per year (assuming it is all bad anyway), less than we spend in two months in Iraq. So McCain is clowning on this issue. He does not believe a word of it. As for the second statement, it is nice that McCain admits he is for more of the same Republican rule we have seen for 8 years, but surely he does not think that will "restore confidence" does he?

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Your turn.

This is an Open Thread.

SUSA's Virginia poll gives us a perfect opportunity to do the type of demographic analysis we used to good effect during the primaries.

SUSA has Obama winning Virginia by 9 points. In the poll, Obama leads among A-As (18% of the electorate) by 86-13 and trails among whites (74% of the electorate) 42-53. The other 8% of the electorate is divided among Latinos (4% of the electorate) and Other (4%.) Compare this potential result with the 2004 race in Virginia -- Kerry won A-As by 87-12 and they were 21% of the Virginia electorate. SUSA predicts Obama will do worse with A-As than Kerry did and turn out in lesser numbers. Not happening. As in the primaries, SUSA simply does not poll A-As well. Obama will win 95% of the A-A vote in Virginia and it may reach 25% of the vote. Thus, even if SUSA is overreporting Obama's white support, and that seems unlikely as it never did so during the primaries, Obama seems a shoo-in in Virginia. More . . .

One thing we probably should have learned from this campaign season is the importance of demographics in gauging this political campaign. I have not engaged in much poll analysis because, frankly, I do not think the Presidential election is in doubt. But Salon runs a silly and truly useless pseudo analysis from a GOP operative trying to convince (perhaps himself as well) that McCain has a real shot. the GOP operative relies on supposed examples of the Bradley Effect in 2006. Poblano debunks the pseudo analysis but it is worthwhile to review the demographics. More . . .

DKos/R2000 has Obama up 8, 50-42. This is down from Obama's 12 point lead in this poll 2 days ago. ABC/WaPo has Obama up 7, 52-45. Obama was up 11 in this poll 3 days ago. Ras has Obama by 8, 52-44 (Update - Now 5, 51-46.) Hotline has Obama up 8, 50-42. Gallup Expanded has Obama up 9, 51-42 (Update - now 10, 53-43.

Is the race tightening from a blowout to a big Obama lead? Not precisely. In essence, the polls are coalescing around an Obama lead of 7-9 points. At this point, no tracking poll has Obama with less than a 4 point lead or more than a 9 point lead. Most are between 7 and 9.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

The latest Washington Post Virginia poll has Barack Obama up by 8.

As an example of the gains he has made since [the last] poll, Obama is now tied with McCain among college-educated white men, overcoming what had been an almost 30-point deficit for the Democrat.

...Part of Obama's late advantage can be traced to widespread voter unease about the economy, record low approval ratings for President Bush and a growing number of voters who have strongly negative perceptions of GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin.

It appears Obama is unstoppable at this point -- so long as all his supporters remember to vote.

Sen. Hillary Clinton turned 61 today. She spent the day in Chicago.

She attended a fundraiser brunch for Sen. Barack Obama and an AIPAC conference and then visited with friends.

Late this afternoon, Judge Sullivan dismissed the juror in the Ted Stevens trial who had traveled to California after her father died. Judge Sullivan had not been able to reach her and did not know when she would return. Over defense objections, Judge Sullivan decided to seat an alternate juror. Jurors will begin deliberations on Monday. Because the new juror did not participate in last week's deliberations, the jurors will be instructed to begin anew without considering prior deliberations.

The decision is a blow to Stevens's defense team, which wanted the judge to wait until Monday to see whether the court could establish contact with the juror. If the woman could not be reached, then the court should proceed with just 11 jurors, said defense attorney Robert Cary. ...

Since deliberations began last week, there have been signs of tensions during talks, including reports of one woman being "rude" and making "violent outbursts" among the jurors. Signs of tensions usually are positive for defense attorneys, but a new juror could potentially provide a calming presence.

"New Subject" highlights that John McCain is out of ideas, out of touch and running out of time. With no plan to lift our economy up, John McCain is trying to tear Barack Obama down with scare tactics and smears.

The Des Moines Register has endorsed Barack Obama for President. Why not John McCain?

But it's as if McCain has lost his way, forfeiting principle for gain of a few points in the polls. He put on hold his long-sought quest for comprehensive immigration reform. Though widely regarded as a man of honor, he has overseen a campaign premised on purposeful distortions about Obama and his record.

Worst of all, in grasping for political edge in his choice of a running mate, he burdened his ticket and potentially the country with an individual utterly unqualified to ascend to the presidency. Before choosing Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, McCain emphasized the importance of experience and sound judgment in fighting terrorism and confronting a restive Russia and a rising China. He has also questioned Obama's readiness to be commander in chief. Then he picked a running mate who clearly isn't ready.(emphasis supplied.)

On the plus side for Obama, besides the economy and his inspiring of voters: [More...]

The Anchorage Daily News today endorsed Barack Obama for President. While it has some encouragement for Palin as regards her future career in politics, it aptly notes:

To step in and juggle the demands of an economic meltdown, two deadly wars and a deteriorating climate crisis would stretch the governor beyond her range. Like picking Sen. McCain for president, putting her one 72-year-old heartbeat from the leadership of the free world is just too risky at this time.

Obama leads McCain in daily newspaper endorsements 160 to 59, an almost 3-1 margin. Here's a list.