A week to go. DKos/R2000 has Obama by 7, 50-43. The last two days of tracking has Obama at +5 and +6. Expect a 6 point race in that poll tomorrow. Ras has it a steady 5 point lead for Obama, 51-46. Hotline still has Obama +8, 50-42. ABC/WaPo has Obama + 7, 52-45. Gallup Expanded has Obama by 10, 52-42.

Only 2 polls (I do not consider Zogby a pollster) have Obama below 50 - Battleground (the problem with Battleground is it has data from a 6 day period), which has Obama winning 49-46, and IBD/TIPP, which has Obama winning 47-44, signalling a high undecided, not likely a week out.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Sure, as I've been saying for a few months, the election is now about turnout. Even so, ABC News boils down the electoral map in such a way that it seems impossible John McCain can win:

If McCain doesn't win Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes, he would have to run the table and win all eight of the competitive states that were held by President Bush in 2004, including Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, and Nevada.

...If you take all four of these states that will be decided relatively early on Election Night next Tuesday -- Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida -- McCain has to win three out of four of those states to even have a chance of getting to 270 electoral votes.

It gets worse for McCain: Even Montana is no longer a sure thing and McCain has begun advertising there this week. [More...]

One week from tomorrow, Michelle Obama may be the First Lady-Elect of the United States. Here she is on the Tonight Show this evening with Jay Leno. (Part 2 is here.) She'll be in Colorado Springs tomorrow afternoon for an early voting rally.

Early voting in Colorado may not be meeting Democrats' expectations. Don't get complacent and don't trust the polls. Mail your ballot in tomorrow if you havent' already. We need every vote. [More...]

A judge in Missouri has blocked rules requiring sex offenders to stay home on Halloween and refrain from Halloween-related activity with children

The judge, Carol E. Jackson, of United States District Court in St. Louis, said the law was unclear, questioning language that prohibits “all Halloween-related contact with children” and allows sexual offenders to leave their homes from 5 p.m. to 10:30 p.m. only if they have “just cause.”

Two issues raised by the case were whether sexual offenders could celebrate the holiday with their own children or grandchildren, for example by hanging decorations or carving pumpkins, and on what grounds they could leave home during the curfew.

The judge upheld two other provisions. One requires sex offenders to post a sign that says "no candy or treats at this residence." The other requires them to keep the porch lights turned off.

[More...]

The Bush administration is gamely proceeding with another military tribunal hearing for a Guantanamo detainee. The first trial resulted in an acquittal of the most serious charge and a sentence that amounted to "we're sorry, you can go home now." Unafraid of a second colossal embarrassment, the administration is bringing a second detainee to trial. This one should be an easier win since the defense isn't participating.

Ali Hamza al-Bahlul does not want to be represented by an American military officer. He wants to represent himself. The judge rejected that request and rejected his lawyer's motion to withdraw. The trial was moving forward. Bahlul announced his intent to boycott the proceedings. The judge said Bahlul's interests would be represented by his counsel even if Bahlul chose not to participate. And then Bahlul's lawyer made a gutsy move:

"I will be joining Mr. Al Bahlul's boycott, sitting silently at the table," said Maj. Frakt, who then refused to respond to several questions from the judge.

[more ...]

Via Sentencing Law and Policy where law prof Doug Berman provides his own thoughts, Sen. John McCain has an op-ed today in the National Law Journal outlining his views of criminal justice and the role of judges.

Terrorists are not the only threat to public safety. Lax enforcement policies, judges who legislate from the bench and lack of support for law enforcement personnel all continue to force our innocent citizens behind the barred windows of their homes and allow criminals to roam free.

And now drugs are bringing waves of crime and organized gang activity to rural areas thought to be nearly immune from such problems. The federal government must both support state and local law enforcement and effectively enforce federal laws designed to root out violent crime, organized gangs and other interstate criminal activity.

[More...]

Here are more details of the arrests in Tennessee today.

Agents seized a rifle, a sawed-off shotgun and three pistols from the men when they were arrested. Authorities alleged the two men were preparing to break into a gun shop to steal more.

Here is the Affidavit in support of the Complaint against Daniel Cowart and Paul Schesselman which has been unsealed.

The Affidavit says both Cowart and his alleged partner Schlesselman have confessed their plan and provided details.

Another person mentioned is Cowart's friend, a woman named Danni Stafford. Since she wasn't charged, I'm assuming she's the one who dropped the dime on the two guys. According to the complaint, she agreed to assist them in a home robbery by driving the car. She drove them to the house the pair were going to rob and then drove to a waiting area. A dog and two cars scared the guys off and they called her to come back and get them. She did, they all left, and she went home.

ATF claims to have foiled a plot by two neo-Nazi skinheads "to assassinate Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama and shoot or decapitate 102 black people in a Tennessee murder spree."

Jim Cavanaugh, special agent in charge of the Nashville field office for the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, said the two men planned to shoot 88 black people and decapitate another 14. The numbers 88 and 14 are symbolic in the white supremacist community.

ATF says the alleged conspirators intended to rob a gun store, then target an unnamed high school with a predominately African-American student body, and then go on a nationwide killing spree culminating in Obama's assassination. As disturbing as this news is, it doesn't appear that the two men even took the first step of obtaining guns.

Update (TChris): Will President Bush pardon Senator Stevens? Will that decision depend upon whether Stevens is reelected?

Mr. Stevens is certain to appeal the conviction, and his supporters are also likely to explore the possibility of obtaining a pardon from a fellow Republican, President George W. Bush, before Mr. Bush leaves office in January.

original post:

Ted Stevens guilty:

Sen. Ted Stevens was found guilty on all counts at his corruption trial Monday. Stevens was charged with lying on Senate financial forms about $250,000 in home renovations and other gifts he received from an oil contractor.

In any individual case, it's difficult to prove that racial profiling motivated a traffic stop. Law enforcement agencies seize upon that difficulty to argue that racial profiling doesn't occur. That was the response of the Los Angeles Police Department to a report (pdf) by Ian Ayres and Jonathan Borowsky for the ACLU of Southern California. Among the report's significant findings:

Per 10,000 residents, the black stop rate is 3,400 stops higher than the white stop rate, and the Hispanic stop rate is almost 360 stops higher. Relative to stopped whites, stopped blacks are 127% more likely and stopped Hispanics are 43% more likely to be frisked.

Despite the absence of empirical evidence that black or Hispanic drivers are more likely to violate traffic laws than white drivers, the LAPD refuses to acknowledge that the statistics reveal an underlying problem of racial profiling. [more ...]

Let's suppose for a moment John McCain was actually a serious person whose policy pronouncements merited attention. Today he said:

“The difference is that he thinks taxes have been too low, and I think that spending has been too high.” . . . “This election comes down to how you want your hard-earned money spent,” Mr. McCain said. Only Republicans, he said, favor policies that can “restore confidence and create economic growth.”

(Emphasis supplied.) Those are two pretty remarkable statements. First, on spending, what would McCain cut? Even if he eliminated all earmarks, that only amounts to 18 billion dollars per year (assuming it is all bad anyway), less than we spend in two months in Iraq. So McCain is clowning on this issue. He does not believe a word of it. As for the second statement, it is nice that McCain admits he is for more of the same Republican rule we have seen for 8 years, but surely he does not think that will "restore confidence" does he?

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Your turn.

This is an Open Thread.