In the wake of the Ted Stevens guilty (times seven) verdict, John McCain bravely called for Stevens to step down. With the election just a week away, Alaska voters may relieve Stevens of the burden of making that choice.

McCain, of course, wasn't really all that brave to speak out at long last against his corrupt Republican colleague. Now that McCain has decided to attack Obama as "soft on crime," he can't very well ignore the latest glaring example of criminality within the Republican Party.

Sarah Palin, on the other hand, proclaimed yesterday "a sad day for Alaska and a sad day for Senator Stevens and his family" and promised to "carefully now monitor the situation and I’ll take any appropriate action as needed." She did not ask Stevens to resign. Instead, she complained about "the corrupting influence of the big oil service company up there in Alaska that was allowed to control too much of our state." What she did about that problem during her short service as governor went unmentioned.

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Pew provides a ridiculous result:

Barack Obama leads John McCain by a 52% to 36% margin in Pew’s latest nationwide survey of 1,325 registered voters. This is the fourth consecutive survey that has found support for the Republican candidate edging down. In contrast, since early October weekly Pew surveys have shown about the same number of respondents saying they back Obama. When the sample is narrowed to those most likely to vote, Obama leads by 53% to 38%.

Pew is a real and respectable pollster. But this result is not to be believed. Zogby must be pissed - Pew is gonna grab the publicity. Zogby may go all in and predict a McCain win. h/t to Atrios for the phrase "poll pron."

*Misspell intentional for the filters.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

The SUSA Ohio poll, which has Obama up 4, 49-45, gives us another chance to do a demographic analysis.

SUSA has Obama winning African Americans (projected to be 11% of the electorate, up 1% from 2004) by 84-12. As usual, SUSA seems to understate Obama's A-A support. At worst, Obama will win 90% of the A-A vote. (Yes, I know Bush is said to have won 16% of the A-A vote in 2004, that is meaningless imo.) More . . .

A week to go. DKos/R2000 has Obama by 7, 50-43. The last two days of tracking has Obama at +5 and +6. Expect a 6 point race in that poll tomorrow. Ras has it a steady 5 point lead for Obama, 51-46. Hotline still has Obama +8, 50-42. ABC/WaPo has Obama + 7, 52-45. Gallup Expanded has Obama by 10, 52-42.

Only 2 polls (I do not consider Zogby a pollster) have Obama below 50 - Battleground (the problem with Battleground is it has data from a 6 day period), which has Obama winning 49-46, and IBD/TIPP, which has Obama winning 47-44, signalling a high undecided, not likely a week out.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Sure, as I've been saying for a few months, the election is now about turnout. Even so, ABC News boils down the electoral map in such a way that it seems impossible John McCain can win:

If McCain doesn't win Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes, he would have to run the table and win all eight of the competitive states that were held by President Bush in 2004, including Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, and Nevada.

...If you take all four of these states that will be decided relatively early on Election Night next Tuesday -- Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida -- McCain has to win three out of four of those states to even have a chance of getting to 270 electoral votes.

It gets worse for McCain: Even Montana is no longer a sure thing and McCain has begun advertising there this week. [More...]

One week from tomorrow, Michelle Obama may be the First Lady-Elect of the United States. Here she is on the Tonight Show this evening with Jay Leno. (Part 2 is here.) She'll be in Colorado Springs tomorrow afternoon for an early voting rally.

Early voting in Colorado may not be meeting Democrats' expectations. Don't get complacent and don't trust the polls. Mail your ballot in tomorrow if you havent' already. We need every vote. [More...]

A judge in Missouri has blocked rules requiring sex offenders to stay home on Halloween and refrain from Halloween-related activity with children

The judge, Carol E. Jackson, of United States District Court in St. Louis, said the law was unclear, questioning language that prohibits “all Halloween-related contact with children” and allows sexual offenders to leave their homes from 5 p.m. to 10:30 p.m. only if they have “just cause.”

Two issues raised by the case were whether sexual offenders could celebrate the holiday with their own children or grandchildren, for example by hanging decorations or carving pumpkins, and on what grounds they could leave home during the curfew.

The judge upheld two other provisions. One requires sex offenders to post a sign that says "no candy or treats at this residence." The other requires them to keep the porch lights turned off.

[More...]

The Bush administration is gamely proceeding with another military tribunal hearing for a Guantanamo detainee. The first trial resulted in an acquittal of the most serious charge and a sentence that amounted to "we're sorry, you can go home now." Unafraid of a second colossal embarrassment, the administration is bringing a second detainee to trial. This one should be an easier win since the defense isn't participating.

Ali Hamza al-Bahlul does not want to be represented by an American military officer. He wants to represent himself. The judge rejected that request and rejected his lawyer's motion to withdraw. The trial was moving forward. Bahlul announced his intent to boycott the proceedings. The judge said Bahlul's interests would be represented by his counsel even if Bahlul chose not to participate. And then Bahlul's lawyer made a gutsy move:

"I will be joining Mr. Al Bahlul's boycott, sitting silently at the table," said Maj. Frakt, who then refused to respond to several questions from the judge.

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Via Sentencing Law and Policy where law prof Doug Berman provides his own thoughts, Sen. John McCain has an op-ed today in the National Law Journal outlining his views of criminal justice and the role of judges.

Terrorists are not the only threat to public safety. Lax enforcement policies, judges who legislate from the bench and lack of support for law enforcement personnel all continue to force our innocent citizens behind the barred windows of their homes and allow criminals to roam free.

And now drugs are bringing waves of crime and organized gang activity to rural areas thought to be nearly immune from such problems. The federal government must both support state and local law enforcement and effectively enforce federal laws designed to root out violent crime, organized gangs and other interstate criminal activity.

[More...]

Here are more details of the arrests in Tennessee today.

Agents seized a rifle, a sawed-off shotgun and three pistols from the men when they were arrested. Authorities alleged the two men were preparing to break into a gun shop to steal more.

Here is the Affidavit in support of the Complaint against Daniel Cowart and Paul Schesselman which has been unsealed.

The Affidavit says both Cowart and his alleged partner Schlesselman have confessed their plan and provided details.

Another person mentioned is Cowart's friend, a woman named Danni Stafford. Since she wasn't charged, I'm assuming she's the one who dropped the dime on the two guys. According to the complaint, she agreed to assist them in a home robbery by driving the car. She drove them to the house the pair were going to rob and then drove to a waiting area. A dog and two cars scared the guys off and they called her to come back and get them. She did, they all left, and she went home.

ATF claims to have foiled a plot by two neo-Nazi skinheads "to assassinate Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama and shoot or decapitate 102 black people in a Tennessee murder spree."

Jim Cavanaugh, special agent in charge of the Nashville field office for the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, said the two men planned to shoot 88 black people and decapitate another 14. The numbers 88 and 14 are symbolic in the white supremacist community.

ATF says the alleged conspirators intended to rob a gun store, then target an unnamed high school with a predominately African-American student body, and then go on a nationwide killing spree culminating in Obama's assassination. As disturbing as this news is, it doesn't appear that the two men even took the first step of obtaining guns.

Update (TChris): Will President Bush pardon Senator Stevens? Will that decision depend upon whether Stevens is reelected?

Mr. Stevens is certain to appeal the conviction, and his supporters are also likely to explore the possibility of obtaining a pardon from a fellow Republican, President George W. Bush, before Mr. Bush leaves office in January.

original post:

Ted Stevens guilty:

Sen. Ted Stevens was found guilty on all counts at his corruption trial Monday. Stevens was charged with lying on Senate financial forms about $250,000 in home renovations and other gifts he received from an oil contractor.