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The Polls - 10/27

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 08:09:00 AM EST
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DKos/R2000 has Obama up 8, 50-42. This is down from Obama's 12 point lead in this poll 2 days ago. ABC/WaPo has Obama up 7, 52-45. Obama was up 11 in this poll 3 days ago. Ras has Obama by 8, 52-44 (Update - Now 5, 51-46.) Hotline has Obama up 8, 50-42. Gallup Expanded has Obama up 9, 51-42 (Update - now 10, 53-43.

Is the race tightening from a blowout to a big Obama lead? Not precisely. In essence, the polls are coalescing around an Obama lead of 7-9 points. At this point, no tracking poll has Obama with less than a 4 point lead or more than a 9 point lead. Most are between 7 and 9.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

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    The Polls - 10/27 | 38 comments (38 topical)

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    Obama's lead (5.00 / 2) (#1)
    by lentinel on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 08:12:52 AM EST
    Obama and McCain were essentially even in the polls before the crash in the economy.

    Before that, it seemed as if the perception was that they both had plusses and minuses. McCain is still seen more favorably on what is referred to as "terrorism".

    But, the economy has tanked. The Republican party, the party in power, is taking the hit. I have no problem with that. Although, I also blame the Democrats who have shown no signs of leadership on this or any other issue.

    Since the economy shows no signs of recovering in any significant manner by the time of the election, I don't think Obama need worry.

    well (5.00 / 3) (#5)
    by connecticut yankee on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 09:13:19 AM EST
    Obama has led McCain for 6 months, the convention bounce represented about a week of two weeks, tops, where McCain has led in that 6 month period.

    I think the previously damaged republican brand (thanks Bush!) has done as much as the crisis.

    Parent

    Comparing now with the R convention bounce (5.00 / 0) (#32)
    by coigue on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 12:35:29 PM EST
    is what you are doing. I am not sure if that is valid, because prior to the RNC, Obama had been ahead for the entire summer by 3-6 points.

    The end of the RNConvention bounce coincided with the Wall street collapse, so it is hard to tease the effect apart, but I think it is fair to say that the bounce would have ended. By how much is the question.

    Parent

    the chart I use myself (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by andgarden on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 10:09:14 AM EST
    is here. I tightened the dates, yanked the polls I find disreputable, and turned up the sensitivity. Yup, tightening.

    What's your explanation as to cause? (none / 0) (#11)
    by Faust on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 10:22:05 AM EST
    Standard tightening? I've taken a 3-4 day break from news and blogging for the most part, anything going on that would trend thing to McCain a little?

    State level polling seems to be pretty damn strong still.

    Parent

    I spent a night in Philly (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by andgarden on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 10:33:33 AM EST
    McCain is running two lines of attack there:

    1. Obama wants to "spread the wealth."

    2. Biden's own words, Obama will be "tested."

    Also, I think there is some natural tightening: there's no way McCain is going to end up below 45%. Probably not even below 47%. But what concerns me a little bit is that Obama's topline has sunk a little.

    Parent
    In my part of Michigan (none / 0) (#26)
    by cal1942 on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 11:59:33 AM EST
    the GOP is using Robo calls with the message that 'Obama's radical policies will make everything worse than they already are.'

    Something like the Hoover line that electing FDR and the Democrats would grow grass in every American city.

    Parent

    The tightening polls (5.00 / 1) (#10)
    by Dave B on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 10:14:06 AM EST
    Scare the crap out of me.  I refuse to believe this is in the bag  until AFTER 11-4.  Call me a pessimist...

    People who talk about a blowout.. (none / 0) (#14)
    by TheRealFrank on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 10:33:09 AM EST
    ..or how the elections is "over", irritate me.

    8 days to go. That's a long time. I was a Clinton supporter in the primaries. Remember that? "She's far ahead. Oh, the numbers are dropping a little, but she's still ahead. She's still ahead. Oh, she lost".

    McCain is now talking about the economy, and Obama seems to be going for a hope and change kind of closing argument.. it doesn't quite feel right to me.

    Anyway. It'll come down to VA and CO. Both look good right now, but I get nervous that things depend on two historically red states.


    Parent

    I don't remember a single primary (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by andgarden on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 10:34:49 AM EST
    where she was ahead with 8 days to go and then lost. You could argue Missouri, but the polling was fairly limited for that race.  

    Parent
    It's over (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 11:01:39 AM EST
    Just to annoy you. Heh.

    Parent
    Way back in July (5.00 / 1) (#12)
    by flyerhawk on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 10:23:12 AM EST
    I said that Obama would win by 7-10 points

    Right now all the math points to that being his margin of victory.

    Terrific, now do the powerball numbers :) (none / 0) (#33)
    by Militarytracy on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 12:38:42 PM EST


    Parent
    I'm working on that one. :) (none / 0) (#35)
    by flyerhawk on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 12:47:02 PM EST


    Parent
    They probably know them in Australia (5.00 / 1) (#36)
    by rdandrea on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 12:53:41 PM EST
    It's already tomorrow there.

    Parent
    SUSA on Florida (5.00 / 1) (#17)
    by Cream City on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 10:51:13 AM EST
    FL Women Drift To Obama, FL Men Drift to McCain, But Overall, Sunshine State Stays Steady in SurveyUSA Tracking:

    In an election for President of the United States in Florida today, 10/17/08, absentee balloting underway and early voting about to begin, Republican John McCain edges Democrat Barack Obama 49% to 47%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV Tampa, WFOR-TV Miami, WKRG-TV Mobile-Pensacola, and WFTX-TV Cape Coral. The outcome is within the survey's margin of sampling error. Both candidates have an excellent chance to carry the state.
    Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll 3 weeks ago, almost nothing has changed in the Florida data, at a time when the [economic] world has changed profoundly. . . .
    Ten days ago. (none / 0) (#18)
    by andgarden on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 11:01:00 AM EST


    Parent
    Missed that -- thanks (none / 0) (#20)
    by Cream City on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 11:09:55 AM EST
    and never mind.  Ten days ago is much like a week from now. . . .

    Parent
    Plus, it's pre Obama/B Clinton appearance (5.00 / 0) (#23)
    by lilburro on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 11:38:03 AM EST
    in Orlando...I don't know how much that will be worth to the people in Florida, but I do think it's a great move on the part of the Obama campaign.

    Parent
    That area (none / 0) (#27)
    by cal1942 on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 12:07:04 PM EST
    will probably decide where Florida's 27 electoral votes will go.

    It's the right place at the right time.

    From an election standpoint, I don't trust Florida.

    Parent

    Well (none / 0) (#21)
    by flyerhawk on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 11:28:53 AM EST
    If you look at electoral-vote.com's report from this day in 2004, you can see that it was pretty darn close to the actual result.

    They are currently giving Obama a 375 EV win.  

    Hard to see how it won't wind up being somewhere in that neighborhood.

    Parent

    That was a good source in 2004 (none / 0) (#22)
    by Cream City on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 11:32:18 AM EST
    when I first found it, so the Dems can hope it's on the mark again.  (But it seems to have more of an agenda this time around -- I've watched it throughout the primary into this phase.  Have you seen that?  It's most evident in the commentary, which makes me curious as to impact on poll selection, etc.)

    Parent
    I believe (5.00 / 0) (#24)
    by flyerhawk on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 11:40:29 AM EST
    they are a straight aggregator.  

    I think their commentary is reflective of the current situation.  Obama is leading significantly.

    The argument that all  the polls and aggregators are biased, which is being put forth by many Republicans, seems pretty absurd to me.

    Parent

    Gallup : O +10 (+1), LVExp +10 (+1), LVTr +5 (0) (5.00 / 0) (#28)
    by steviez314 on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 12:09:25 PM EST
    Backing off the ledge.

    Ras is down to O +5 (none / 0) (#2)
    by steviez314 on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 08:25:59 AM EST
    So for some reason, Obama had a bad Sunday night in Rasand dKos.  I didn't think the MTP interview was THAT good.

    I know the numbers are good, and Obama is not going down as much as undecideds are breaking more to McCain at this point, but why do they feel a need to torture me?

    hm (5.00 / 1) (#6)
    by connecticut yankee on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 09:15:42 AM EST
    Well, it looks like McCain is gaining, rather than Obama losing, which I think is expected.

    O is holding over 50 in both Ras, Zogby and Dkos, which showed a decline in the spread.

    Parent

    It seems cyclical (none / 0) (#3)
    by Cream City on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 08:32:56 AM EST
    and often down on weekends for Dems, as has been noted before.  Fortunate for them that election day is a Tuesday. :-)

    Parent
    Sure looks to me like tightening (none / 0) (#4)
    by andgarden on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 09:07:35 AM EST
    And Obama had a really bad one day sample in R2k.

    At least O probably has a lot of early votes... (none / 0) (#7)
    by magster on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 09:28:27 AM EST
    ...in the bank.  The Republicans and Republican leaning independents probably won't quite be able to pull the lever for Obama though -- I'll be glad when the election is over.

    I'm sticking with my Bushish nonscientific (none / 0) (#8)
    by Militarytracy on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 09:44:02 AM EST
    methodology :)  Obama by double digit because the McCain base is uninspired compared to the rest of the entire county who can't afford a McCain presidency and has a very strong desire a couple of times a day to eat :)

    Anecdotal Support (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by CoralGables on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 10:27:35 AM EST
    for your Bushish Hypothesis.

    Two still strong Bush supporter acquaintances (yes there are still a few out there) informed me yesterday they were skipping this election because the lines are long and Obama is going to win anyway.

    Fresh off that smile I left for home into a 95% Latin neighborhood where any public Dem Support since the days of Elian Gonzalez risked backlash...and passed two Obama yard signs in the neighborhood. Yard signs may not vote, but in some areas they shine like a Pepsodent smile.

    Parent

    McCain's PA strategy (none / 0) (#25)
    by lilburro on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 11:49:23 AM EST
    Read an article in the NYT today about Obama and Western PA.  It seems that McCain is hoping to win the state by concentrating on the western part.  
    To me, that seems foolish.  Who is he talking to out there that wouldn't have voted for him anyway?  Will he be able to muster enough enthusiasm to do a good GOTV there?
    Obama will be in Chester, PA this week.  
    AFAIK, there are more votes on the east side of the state than the west.  McCain's strategy here is truly wrongheaded to me.  Double digits down, and you're going to putter around Moon Township?  Just seems stupid to me.

    I think (none / 0) (#29)
    by cal1942 on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 12:13:18 PM EST
    that the only chance he has is to wrest one large, vital piece of the Obama group and trust to luck regarding states like Ohio and Florida.

    Given his resources that's all he can do.

    Oh how I hope it doesn't work.  Pennsylvania was  too close in 2004 and from memory I believe it was close in 2000.

    Parent

    Aren't the Philly burbs red? (none / 0) (#30)
    by Cream City on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 12:26:56 PM EST
    I saw a report on that, so if they stay with the GOP, that's a sizeable number in eastern PA, isn't it?  (Overall, though, I think you're correct that counting on western PA is a problematic strategy.)

    Parent
    They used to be red (5.00 / 0) (#31)
    by andgarden on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 12:27:45 PM EST
    Bill Clinton and Ed Rendell changed that.

    The Pittsburgh burbs are red, though.

    Parent

    Ah, thanks -- mixed up the cities. (none / 0) (#34)
    by Cream City on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 12:41:56 PM EST


    Parent
    I figured the (none / 0) (#37)
    by lilburro on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 01:00:58 PM EST
    Pittsburgh burbs would be red.  So again, what is the strategy here McCain?  

    IMO, if he had known he would have to lay it all on the line in PA, he would've chosen someone who wasn't Palin...Ridge perhaps.

    I note that his campaign is going to make stops in Pottsville, Hershey, and Shippensburg.

    Parent

    A Murtha comment I read somewhere today (none / 0) (#38)
    by imhotep on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 01:03:00 PM EST
    to the effect that western PA is racist.  
    This is the same with southeastern Ohio.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/27/AR2008102700195.html

    Parent

    The Polls - 10/27 | 38 comments (38 topical)

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