The other day I did a post on the political demography of Ohio and why Obama's performance among non-whites is why he will win there. WaPo's Numbers Blog reaches a similar conclusion using their own polling numbers and relinks to their Ohio analysis from a few months back. Today they write:

Obama currently outpaces recent Democratic nominees among white voters, but his advantage among nonwhite voters is even more dramatic. Overall, nonwhites go for Obama over McCain 80 to 16 percent, with African Americans and Hispanics in particular providing a big boost to the Democrat.

. . . A few months ago, the Post took a look at how a boost in black turnout could benefit Obama, assessing the results using two scenarios, one in which Obama took John F. Kerry's share of the vote among African Americans, and another in which he won 95 percent of black voters. In the clearly more realistic 95 percent scenario, if turnout among non-blacks held steady, Obama would win Ohio without any boost in black turnout and Nevada with a slim 8 percent uptick. . .

Obama leads by 9, 53-44, in the WaPo/ABC tracker.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Rashid Khalidi? Cool sounding name. Shareem Abdur Rahim? Also a cool sounding name. Mahmoud_Abdul-Rauf? Also cool. And Kareem Abdul Jabbar? Also a cool sounding name. Not to mention Nuri Al Maliki.

What do Republicans have against vowels? Say what you want about George Bush, but he seems to not hold any grudges against people with a lot of vowels in their name.

This is an Open Thread.

As TalkLeft noted here, the government dropped charges against Guantanamo detainee Binyam Mohamed. That hasn't stopped the Bush administration from continuing to detain him, but it has raised a judicial eyebrow.

The Justice Department told Judge Emmet Sullivan that it no longer relied upon the claim that Mohamed assisted Jose Padilla in planning the detonation of a "dirty bomb" in the United States -- a charge that was never pursued against Padilla.

At the Thursday hearing, Judge Sullivan asked why, after more than six years, the government had stepped away from its claims about a dirty-bomb plot. “That raises a question as to whether or not the allegations were ever true,” the judge said.

It certainly does. [more ...]

Around the time of our last presidential election, Homeland Security decided that 2,500 foreigners, mostly Muslim, within the nation's boundaries should be viewed as a potential threat to national security. And so they were investigated by Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

The internal reports show that immigration agents questioned the foreigners about what they thought of America, whether violence was preached at their mosques, and whether they had access to biological or chemical weapons.

Some of the foreigners were detained for immigration violations, but there is no evidence that any were charged with a crime against national security. While ICE claims it did not single out foreigners for interrogation based on their race, ethnicity, or religion, nearly four out of five came from Muslim-majority countries. It certainly appears that the government's suspicions were based on religious profiling rather than facts that suggest an actual reason to suspect threatening behavior. [more ...]

This is a very interesting development - the Gallup Expanded and Traditional turnout models have basically converged -the traditional turnout model has Obama by 8 - 51-43 while the expanded model has Obama by 9, 52-43. Obama leads among all registered voters by 11, 52-41.

The door that McCain pollster Bill McCinturff had tried to slide in in selling McCain's chances was the idea that while turnout would be at a record high, the makeup would still resemble that of the 2004 election. Here Gallup seems to be shutting that door as well.

ABC/WaPo has stuck to its traditional voter turnout model and has been producing consistent 8 and 9 point leads for Obama. Now Gallup joins the party. Perhaps my prediction of a 6 point Obama win is too cautious.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Public Policy Polling's final state polls are out. It's looking good for Obama among Independents.

• Colorado: Obama 60-36
• Michigan: Obama 53-40
• Minnesota: Obama 55-37
• New Mexico: Obama 66-28
• Oregon: Obama 53-41

Obama is also getting more Republican votes than John McCain is getting Democrat votes.

To see the actual polls, here's Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico and Oregon.

Public Policy Polling has released new state polls. In Colorado, Obama leads by 17 among those who have already voted and 10 overall:

65% of the folks we surveyed said they had already voted, and among those respondents Obama is winning 58-41. Folks planning to vote on election day support John McCain 50-47, bringing Obama's overall lead down to ten points.

...Two of the main factors driving Obama’s success in the state continue to be his strong standing with independents and Hispanic voters. He is up 60-36 with voters who don’t identify with either party, and he has a 65-33 lead with Hispanics, the fastest growing voter bloc in the state.

In the Senate race, Democrat Mark Udall is now up by 17.

Full Colorado results are here (pdf).

Via Kos, who has a new Research 2000 Arizona poll (McCain 48, Obama 47) to explain why McCain will be campaigning in Arizona Monday night.

Obama has so much money, he can do an ad blitz in Arizona and make McCain spend part of the day before the election in his home state. Hard to see how a McCain miracle could possibly happen.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Matt Yglesias takes Ed Whelan (Whelan's response to Yglesias) to task for taking Barack Obama to task for his statements on the importance of judicial philosophy:

While his language is over the top (though, upon reflection, Whelan in his response has some evidence that Obama is intentionally making a false statement here, but pols do that) , I think Whelan makes a good point - Obama is clearly avoiding the issue (and 4 days from an election, probably a smart thing.) Obama clearly does intend to discount the importance of judicial philosophy in this interview, and he is wrong when he does so. More.

There is no doubt that Barack Obama is dominating among younger voters. Democracy Corps posits that this will be significant for Democrats over time:

Barack Obama will make history in one week in no small measure due to the enthusiasm and commitment of America’s youth. The Obama campaign awakened a generation. . . . [T]he stability of his support among young people, largely uninterrupted throughout the year, and their growing enthusiasm is nothing short of remarkable and will influence American politics for generations to come.

(Emphasis supplied.) Let's hope it is so. I am curious though if Obama is making his voters Democrats. More . . .

Now that McCain's "tightening" meme has pretty much slipped away, some Republican leaners are grasping at some new straw. Glenn Reynolds writes:

GOP halves Democratic lead in generic ballot. "Democrats now lead by four points, their slimmest lead in more than three years. A week ago, according to the George Washington University poll, their advantage was eight points." Mickey Kaus thinks he knows why.

Any Halloween scares to come in the polling today? Not likely.

DKos/R2000 has Obama up 6, 51-45. Ras has Obama up 4, 51-47 and a good explanation of what has happened in the last week or so:

The tightening comes entirely from McCain solidifying his support. . . . [W]hile McCain has been solidifying support, Obama has not lost ground. This is the 36th straight day that Obama’s support has been between 50% and 52%.

Other polls show similar spreads. Hotline has Obama by 6, 48-42. Gallup Expanded has Obama by 7, 51-44. The race has been static for a week. The spread each pollster shows depends on turnout models but no poll shows McCain closer than 3. And some polls show as much as a 15 point spread. I stick to my months long prediction of a 6 point Obama win.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only