Around the time of our last presidential election, Homeland Security decided that 2,500 foreigners, mostly Muslim, within the nation's boundaries should be viewed as a potential threat to national security. And so they were investigated by Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

The internal reports show that immigration agents questioned the foreigners about what they thought of America, whether violence was preached at their mosques, and whether they had access to biological or chemical weapons.

Some of the foreigners were detained for immigration violations, but there is no evidence that any were charged with a crime against national security. While ICE claims it did not single out foreigners for interrogation based on their race, ethnicity, or religion, nearly four out of five came from Muslim-majority countries. It certainly appears that the government's suspicions were based on religious profiling rather than facts that suggest an actual reason to suspect threatening behavior. [more ...]

This is a very interesting development - the Gallup Expanded and Traditional turnout models have basically converged -the traditional turnout model has Obama by 8 - 51-43 while the expanded model has Obama by 9, 52-43. Obama leads among all registered voters by 11, 52-41.

The door that McCain pollster Bill McCinturff had tried to slide in in selling McCain's chances was the idea that while turnout would be at a record high, the makeup would still resemble that of the 2004 election. Here Gallup seems to be shutting that door as well.

ABC/WaPo has stuck to its traditional voter turnout model and has been producing consistent 8 and 9 point leads for Obama. Now Gallup joins the party. Perhaps my prediction of a 6 point Obama win is too cautious.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Public Policy Polling's final state polls are out. It's looking good for Obama among Independents.

• Colorado: Obama 60-36
• Michigan: Obama 53-40
• Minnesota: Obama 55-37
• New Mexico: Obama 66-28
• Oregon: Obama 53-41

Obama is also getting more Republican votes than John McCain is getting Democrat votes.

To see the actual polls, here's Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico and Oregon.

Public Policy Polling has released new state polls. In Colorado, Obama leads by 17 among those who have already voted and 10 overall:

65% of the folks we surveyed said they had already voted, and among those respondents Obama is winning 58-41. Folks planning to vote on election day support John McCain 50-47, bringing Obama's overall lead down to ten points.

...Two of the main factors driving Obama’s success in the state continue to be his strong standing with independents and Hispanic voters. He is up 60-36 with voters who don’t identify with either party, and he has a 65-33 lead with Hispanics, the fastest growing voter bloc in the state.

In the Senate race, Democrat Mark Udall is now up by 17.

Full Colorado results are here (pdf).

Via Kos, who has a new Research 2000 Arizona poll (McCain 48, Obama 47) to explain why McCain will be campaigning in Arizona Monday night.

Obama has so much money, he can do an ad blitz in Arizona and make McCain spend part of the day before the election in his home state. Hard to see how a McCain miracle could possibly happen.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Matt Yglesias takes Ed Whelan (Whelan's response to Yglesias) to task for taking Barack Obama to task for his statements on the importance of judicial philosophy:

While his language is over the top (though, upon reflection, Whelan in his response has some evidence that Obama is intentionally making a false statement here, but pols do that) , I think Whelan makes a good point - Obama is clearly avoiding the issue (and 4 days from an election, probably a smart thing.) Obama clearly does intend to discount the importance of judicial philosophy in this interview, and he is wrong when he does so. More.

There is no doubt that Barack Obama is dominating among younger voters. Democracy Corps posits that this will be significant for Democrats over time:

Barack Obama will make history in one week in no small measure due to the enthusiasm and commitment of America’s youth. The Obama campaign awakened a generation. . . . [T]he stability of his support among young people, largely uninterrupted throughout the year, and their growing enthusiasm is nothing short of remarkable and will influence American politics for generations to come.

(Emphasis supplied.) Let's hope it is so. I am curious though if Obama is making his voters Democrats. More . . .

Now that McCain's "tightening" meme has pretty much slipped away, some Republican leaners are grasping at some new straw. Glenn Reynolds writes:

GOP halves Democratic lead in generic ballot. "Democrats now lead by four points, their slimmest lead in more than three years. A week ago, according to the George Washington University poll, their advantage was eight points." Mickey Kaus thinks he knows why.

Any Halloween scares to come in the polling today? Not likely.

DKos/R2000 has Obama up 6, 51-45. Ras has Obama up 4, 51-47 and a good explanation of what has happened in the last week or so:

The tightening comes entirely from McCain solidifying his support. . . . [W]hile McCain has been solidifying support, Obama has not lost ground. This is the 36th straight day that Obama’s support has been between 50% and 52%.

Other polls show similar spreads. Hotline has Obama by 6, 48-42. Gallup Expanded has Obama by 7, 51-44. The race has been static for a week. The spread each pollster shows depends on turnout models but no poll shows McCain closer than 3. And some polls show as much as a 15 point spread. I stick to my months long prediction of a 6 point Obama win.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

This is excellent news for the future of crime policy if it's true:

“The political climate has shifted,” said Marc Mauer, executive director of the Sentencing Project, a nonprofit organization for criminal justice reform. “Democrats and Republicans both embrace a more evidence-based approach to public safety that looks at programs and policies that work.”

It's not so true of John McCain.

In a speech before the National Sheriffs’ Association this year, Mr. McCain ... called for tougher punishment for violent offenders and appeared to disagree with Mr. Obama’s contention that the prison population is too high. ... Mr. McCain also favors tougher sentences for illegal immigrants who commit crimes and more federal money to help local agencies detain them.

The Department of Corrections budget doesn't seem to be one of those McCain wants to cut. [more ...]

They just don't know when to stop. Guantanamo prosecutors wanted a sentence of 30 years to life for Salim Hamdan, Osama bin Laden's driver. A military jury gave him 5 1/2 years, 5 years of which he's already served. The prosecutors should have taken that slap in the face gracefully. Instead, they asked the military judge to reassemble the jury to resentence Hamdan. They argued that the judge should not have instructed the jury that Hamdan would receive credit for time served because the judge has no authority to award that credit to an enemy combatant.

The prosecutors want the five years and one month Hamdan has already served to be "dead time" -- time a prisoner spends in custody that never gets credited to any sentence. They wanted to argue to the jury that Hamdan should serve an additional 5 1/2 years. But the jury already decided that Hamdan should be done with his sentence at the end of the year. There's no reason to put him in jeopardy of a longer sentence. The presiding judge appropriately denied the prosecution's latest shameful effort to save face.

Correction: The defective battery chargers in the nation's missile silos have not all been replaced. But they're working on it.

original post:

A defective battery charger caused a fire at a nuclear missile silo near Cheyenne, Wyoming last spring, a mishap that is only now being reported "because of the complexity of the investigation." The fire burned for about two hours, finding as fuel (among $1 million of other property) a shotgun and a box of shotgun shells.

A shotgun is a standard security weapon at missile silos.

As formidable a security device as a shotgun might be in thwarting the theft of a Minuteman III missile, there was nobody at the launch site to fire the shotgun, or to save it from the fire. The launch site is unmanned. Five days passed before the Air Force noticed (while investigating a trouble light) that there had been a fire. How secure does that make you feel?

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