Gallup Trad Turnout Model: Obama By 8

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 12:13:51 PM EST
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This is a very interesting development - the Gallup Expanded and Traditional turnout models have basically converged -the traditional turnout model has Obama by 8 - 51-43 while the expanded model has Obama by 9, 52-43. Obama leads among all registered voters by 11, 52-41.

The door that McCain pollster Bill McCinturff had tried to slide in in selling McCain's chances was the idea that while turnout would be at a record high, the makeup would still resemble that of the 2004 election. Here Gallup seems to be shutting that door as well.

ABC/WaPo has stuck to its traditional voter turnout model and has been producing consistent 8 and 9 point leads for Obama. Now Gallup joins the party. Perhaps my prediction of a 6 point Obama win is too cautious.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

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Gallup Trad Turnout Model: Obama By 8 | 57 comments (57 topical)

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All joking aside. . . (5.00 / 1) (#1)
by LarryInNYC on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 12:18:57 PM EST

I don't think we should measure anyone's "prediction success" (if we even imagine we're not all pulling numbers out of our tuchuses) down to one or two percent. That's an absurd level of precision to expect. I'm more comfortable with ideas like "squeaker", "clear win", "win big", and "landslide".

I say "win big".

No Lary! (5.00 / 1) (#8)
by Faust on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 12:27:52 PM EST

Stick to your guns! I'm counting on you!


See him hedging already (5.00 / 1) (#10)
by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 12:31:32 PM EST

He's running scared after his (5.00 / 1) (#11)
by oculus on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 12:33:37 PM EST

Democratic loyalty was called into question.


Heh (none / 0) (#12)
by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 12:35:25 PM EST

Well being for Bloomberg and hios GOP policies invites that.

BTW, as far as I know, Larry is an Independent.


Pssst. His daughter is (none / 0) (#13)
by oculus on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 12:36:22 PM EST

dressing up as Sarah Palin tonight. What does that tell us?


Larry hates Palin (none / 0) (#16)
by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 12:39:28 PM EST

That's what it tells me.

I hate Bloomberg.


: Does that mean. . . (5.00 / 5) (#31)
by LarryInNYC on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 01:01:56 PM EST

you're dressing up as Bloomberg tonight?
Funny, we've never seen you and Bloobmerg in the same place at the same time. . .

: While tapping your fingers (none / 0) (#26)
by oculus on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 12:48:34 PM EST

waiting for Tuesday night results, why not tell us why you hate Bloomberg?

Tonight?! (none / 0) (#19)
by liminal on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 12:41:15 PM EST

Do people in NYC hold trick-or-treat on Halloween? Out here in the boonies we always have it early on the theory that holding trick-or-treat a day or two early confuses mischief-makers.

Admittedly, it's a dumb theory.

Also: everyone's at the high school football game on Friday night, so there'd be no candy for anyone.


Seeing as how a'hm in CA, (none / 0) (#21)
by oculus on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 12:42:24 PM EST

no idea when bona fide NYC kids hit the streets.


(grin) (5.00 / 1) (#50)
by liminal on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 04:18:18 PM EST

And this here is why we have to be so careful out here in the boonies:

<quote>Deputies made one arrest in Cabin Creek after vandals set a piece of furniture on fire in the middle of the street. Crosier said Anthony Ray Armstrong, 36, of Cabin Creek, appeared out of the darkness, ran through a group of deputies and leapt over the smoldering debris before being ordered to stop.

Armstrong, clad in a ski mask, tank top and long underwear pants, turned to fight deputies, Crosier said. But when threatened with the use of a Taser gun he gave up. </quote>

You never know when someone's going to take a criminal leap over a burning couch.


: See what happens with all these (none / 0) (#52)
by oculus on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 05:58:13 PM EST

new-fangled "improvements," such as indoor plumbing?

my wife is dressing as palin (none / 0) (#36)
by progrocks on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 01:42:25 PM EST

and i am going as McCain. We each hate them, and will be playing up the stupidity of each at the party we are going to.


Ony guy on NPR's Marketplace (none / 0) (#37)
by oculus on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 01:45:47 PM EST

said he may dress up as the Bailout, and another sd. he'll show up as his 401k, complete with graph.


: He's going on a diet? n/t (none / 0) (#38)
by LarryInNYC on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 02:02:35 PM EST

: Hah. (none / 0) (#51)
by liminal on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 04:23:08 PM EST

I made my brother a "stock market" costume when he was home from college a few weeks ago: a downward graph that ended with a long red ribbon trailing off the bottom right corner to forecast future trends.
No stock market related trick-or-treaters at my house last night, though, just a bunch of vampires, serial killers, and 573 different versions of batman.

You'll no doubt be glad to hear. . . (none / 0) (#35)
by LarryInNYC on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 01:18:17 PM EST

Bloomberg and hios GOP policies

that Bloomberg had a major court set back today when a judge blocked his new "GOP" fuel efficiency rules for the taxis & black cars in the city. The new policy would essentially have created an all-hybrid fleet within five years.

Now we get to have continued high asthma rates for school kids in New York. That's a "Democratic" policy? Please!


: Heh (none / 0) (#41)
by Steve M on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 02:20:44 PM EST

Let's not forget the arch-conservative trans fats ban!

So there's room for Zogby (5.00 / 1) (#2)
by andgarden on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 12:19:59 PM EST

to show "tightening" tonight.

Yeah (none / 0) (#7)
by zvs888 on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 12:24:49 PM EST

He'll have to show Obama dropping to 47-48 and McCain up to 46-47 to get on all the weekend shows.


McCain is scheduled for SNL. (5.00 / 2) (#15)
by oculus on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 12:39:03 PM EST

Could turn around the entire election.


Oculus, you crack me up sometimes. (5.00 / 2) (#17)
by Lil on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 12:40:01 PM EST

You crack me up too! (5.00 / 1) (#42)
by BrassTacks on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 02:45:58 PM EST

Even if we believe that there is still a Bradley effect, taking off a point or two, Obama still wins BIG. Now we just have to hope that he can govern BIG and get done most of the things he has promised.


I'm looking forward to it, assuming (5.00 / 1) (#53)
by oculus on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 05:59:31 PM EST

the ban on criticism is lifted after the election.


: I wouldn't count on it................ (none / 0) (#57)
by BrassTacks on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 01:37:39 AM EST

heh (none / 0) (#55)
by connecticut yankee on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 11:25:12 PM EST

And right on cue. Zogby headlines Drudge tonight with a poll that shows McCain ahead by 1 in one day polling. From 7 point Obama to McCain plus 1 in one day.

Amazing pollster, that Zogby.


: Lesson one: Zogby is full of $h*t (none / 0) (#56)
by andgarden on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 11:43:14 PM EST

There is no lesson two.

I have a solid prediction: no matter how (5.00 / 2) (#4)
by ThatOneVoter on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 12:20:59 PM EST

much Obama wins by, the Republicans and the silly pundits in DC will inform us that Obama did not earn a mandate, and that he needs to consult with Republicans on all decisions.

Pff! (5.00 / 2) (#32)
by Fabian on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 01:06:21 PM EST

Consult nothing!

They'll probably have a list of demands and "acceptable" judicial appointees making the rounds on the following Sunday Talkies.


Well, yeah, (none / 0) (#43)
by BrassTacks on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 02:49:33 PM EST

If nearly half the people vote against Obama it will be hard for us to claim that he has a mandate. If he gets 75% or more, THAT would be a mandate. 52% to 48%, not so much. But it doesn't matter. He will have a democrat Congress. They can do whatever they choose to do.


: Well, Bush claimed a mandate with 52-48% (5.00 / 2) (#47)
by sallywally on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 03:18:41 PM EST

and they had to sink to the slimiest level to accomplish that.

How much is enough to make McCain (5.00 / 1) (#5)
by ThatOneVoter on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 12:21:20 PM EST

cry? That is the margin I want.

I thought we were waiting for (5.00 / 1) (#14)
by oculus on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 12:37:08 PM EST

McCain to explode, not cry.


Mutually exclusive? Guess it (none / 0) (#20)
by CaptainAmerica08 on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 12:41:48 PM EST

depends on one's age.


: Or the timing. (none / 0) (#23)
by Thanin on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 12:42:46 PM EST

Wow (none / 0) (#3)
by zvs888 on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 12:20:18 PM EST

Gallup expanded enormously the past two days. It's back to where it was at the peaks for Obama in previous weeks with more traditional leaning towards Obama.

I really do just think that there were a few days with overly strong McCain polling this week earlier, represented in the polls taken involving Sunday-Tuesday.

We're back to where we were before, Obama holding a 6-8 point lead into the election.

: Nah, Gallup is just looking for a way (none / 0) (#9)
by Militarytracy on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 12:30:43 PM EST

to not be SOOOOO wrong about November 4th. If they continued to poll using the weighting that they had been they would have looked like idiots on Nov 5th. They were going to stick it.......ummm, errrr, I mean stick to it though until they were sure they were in danger.

Isn't a 8 point lead good for (none / 0) (#6)
by CaptainAmerica08 on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 12:21:56 PM EST

330+ EVs or is it higher?

Anything after 270 (5.00 / 1) (#22)
by Lil on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 12:42:27 PM EST

is icing on the cake. I am still nervous about Tuesday, but not as much as I was in 2004.


In 2004 (5.00 / 1) (#24)
by zvs888 on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 12:44:01 PM EST

We knew Kerry was going to lose though... Everyone saw the Ohio polls collapse in the final weeks.


: We finally learned the lesson (5.00 / 1) (#28)
by andgarden on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 12:50:04 PM EST

that ties in Florida go to the Republicans.

: Well, Wonkette sd. (none / 0) (#27)
by oculus on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 12:49:48 PM EST

Kerry was winning in Ohio. Who ya gonna believe?

my prediction (none / 0) (#18)
by Jlvngstn on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 12:40:08 PM EST

of an 8 point minimu victory almost two months ago, stands. And as I speculated then, 8 might be low.

Not a chance (none / 0) (#44)
by BrassTacks on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 02:56:18 PM EST

I wish it would be 8% but I think 4 or 5% far more likely. Too many big states are too close for Obama to get over 52% or maybe 53%. Plus, I do believe we will lose a percent or two due to the Bradley effect and because republicans hate to answer any polls.

Obama gets 52%, McCain 47% and 1% to others. That's my prediction. Still, a very healthy win for us.


: it will be interesting to see (5.00 / 1) (#48)
by Jlvngstn on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 03:19:00 PM EST

I think the reverse bradley effect will take hold in that people will tell their friends they would never vote for That One, but in their hearts they know that That One will more likely produce jobs and and higher wages.
Should be fun to watch.

BTD, Are you predicting the (none / 0) (#25)
by robrecht on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 12:44:27 PM EST

Electoral College result?

Virginia?

Nevada?

Ohio?

Florida?

North Carolina?

Anyone else? Personally, I'll until Virginia is called for Obama before I start speculating about the extent of a mandate or even, dare I say ... No, I dare not.

: Ohio State? (none / 0) (#29)
by rdandrea on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 12:51:52 PM EST

n/t

: Nixonesque? (none / 0) (#30)
by oculus on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 01:00:39 PM EST

Does traditional model account for already voted? (none / 0) (#33)
by magster on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 01:06:30 PM EST

That might explain the convergence given the poll numbers on vote percentages already banked by Obama.

: That was my first thought. (none / 0) (#40)
by JoeA on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 02:10:44 PM EST

Yes, the likely voter screen includes questions like - have you already voted? Did you vote in 2004? etc. Alot of people who have voted early and were previously excluded from the likely voters screen will be getting past it based on their having already voted.

November 5th... (none / 0) (#34)
by marian evans on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 01:10:59 PM EST

the soon-to-be-winter winds scud in from the shrinking polar regions. April may be the cruelest month, but November comes in close second.

From the foggy isle, this headline today in the London Times:

"Barack Obama lays plans to deaden expectation after election victory".

Black dog thoughts.

November 5th, wrap up well for the coming chill winds...and don't go watering those "deadened expectations". It's going to be a long winter.

: Aren't you the cheery one? (5.00 / 2) (#46)
by BrassTacks on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 03:00:36 PM EST

: Jeez (none / 0) (#54)
by lilburro on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 09:25:43 PM EST

that's like the exact opposite of his current campaign. Let's Deaden Expectations! Woo!

Is this previously "unlikely" voters (none / 0) (#39)
by JoeA on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 02:08:19 PM EST

who have now voted early, suddenly being counted within the traditional likely voter model as they tell the pollsters that they have already voted - hence closing the gap between the models?

What percentage have voted early? (none / 0) (#45)
by BrassTacks on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 02:59:58 PM EST

I can't tell from any of the reports. I know early voting favors us, but by how much? I know that lots of old people have voted early in Florida and Virginia. Does this mean anything?

McCain is campaigning in Virginia this weekend, so VA must still be up for grabs. Is it true that Obama's going to Iowa? Why would he do that? Seems like a waste when he is so far up there.


: It's not so much that early voting has favoured (none / 0) (#49)
by JoeA on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 03:34:28 PM EST

Obama (it has, but not necessarily everywhere), but that a disproportionate number of the early Obama voters are coming from categories that were being weeded out by the traditional likely voter screen. i.e. They were young, or they were infrequent voters who didn't vote in 2004 but were particularly motivated to vote this year. i.e. most of the McCain early voters were already passing the LV screen, whereas a biggish proportion of the Obama ones were not, and now are getting past it based on having voted already. This seems to suggest to me that the pollsters with models more along the line of Gallup Expanded LV model are closer to the reality.
Of course I could just be completely wrong and Gallup might just be tweaking their weightings as they think the old Traditional LV model was wrong?