home

Even Fox Gives Up The Ghost: Obama 50, McCain 43

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 01:02:02 PM EST
Tags: (all tags)
Share This: Digg! StumbleUpon del.icio.us reddit reddit

The fat lady is singing pollwise:

With just one day to go before Election Day, Barack Obama has a 7 percentage point lead over John McCain -- 50-43 percent, according to the final FOX News pre-election poll of likely voters. At the end of October, Obama led by 47-44 percent among likely voters, and by 49-40 percent about ten days ago (Oct 20-21).

Update - And now the last resisters among the polls fall - IBD/TIPP has Obama by 5 and Battleground has Obama by 6. Not a single poll, not one, has Obama with less than a 5 point lead.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

< Stevens Juror Lied About Father's Death | Obama's Jewish Support >

  • The Online Magazine with Liberal coverage of crime-related political and injustice news

  • Contribute To TalkLeft


    • Display: Sort:
    Even Fox Gives Up The Ghost: Obama 50, McCain 43 | 52 comments (52 topical)

    Readers Must Login or Create an Account to Comment

    Because it's fun (5.00 / 0) (#35)
    by andgarden on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 02:46:41 PM EST
    Karl Rove has "the math" too.

    and why is it ok to say the fat lady is (5.00 / 1) (#51)
    by Jlvngstn on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 04:56:05 PM EST
    singing?

    I don't understand why (none / 0) (#1)
    by andgarden on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 01:07:34 PM EST
    the race is so close in FL and MO.

    I think southern whites are being left out of this shift to Obama.

    Obama will win Florida (5.00 / 1) (#2)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 01:08:39 PM EST
    I can not tell you about MO.

    Parent
    PPP has (none / 0) (#4)
    by andgarden on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 01:12:17 PM EST
    Obama winning 43% of the white vote That's actually a tick higher than the 41% they give him in Florida.

    There's your problem: lots of southern whites just don't want to vote for Obama.

    Parent

    2.6 million early voters (5.00 / 0) (#7)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 01:16:25 PM EST
    331,000 more Dems.

    20 point lead for Obama.

    Obama is winning Florida.

    Parent

    Pray for rain tomorrow (none / 0) (#9)
    by andgarden on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 01:18:26 PM EST
    Rare for Democrats. . .

    Parent
    Perfect weather in Florida (5.00 / 2) (#13)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 01:23:24 PM EST
    And, no, do not pray for rain. There are more Dems still to get out.

    Parent
    Well, I don't pray, so don't worry! (none / 0) (#15)
    by andgarden on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 01:27:02 PM EST
    Normally it's pretty common ground that if you have your vote banked, you don't want the other guys to show up. But I would expect, in the face of hardship conditions, Republicans might be more likely to show up. So you have a point.

    Parent
    well (none / 0) (#16)
    by connecticut yankee on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 01:29:42 PM EST
    Only 1,000 people showed at McCain's Tampa rally this morning. Even Fox was wondering where everybody was.

    Hopefully they are getting demoralized.

    Parent

    Good sign in Rasmussen (none / 0) (#24)
    by magster on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 01:56:19 PM EST
    that 35% of Obama voters in their national poll taking off work tomorrow, while only 6% of McCain's supporters will.

    That's a lot more motivation to GOTV or to stand in line for however long.

    Parent

    pray all you want (none / 0) (#29)
    by coigue on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 02:15:46 PM EST
    it won't work anyway.

    Parent
    Rain in NC tomorrow n/t (none / 0) (#10)
    by lilburro on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 01:20:29 PM EST


    Parent
    Rain in Va., too. (none / 0) (#19)
    by Joelarama on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 01:32:10 PM EST
    Particularly NoVa. and Richmond.

    The "rain is good for Republicans" thing is pretty true in Mississippi, where I grew up.  I'd hope it means less in more prosperous states with better infrastructure.

    Parent

    Minimal early voting in VA (none / 0) (#20)
    by andgarden on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 01:38:14 PM EST
    So we need perfect weather there tomorrow. I think Obama's voters would come through snow, hale, frost and gale this year, though.

    Parent
    Freezing rain? (none / 0) (#22)
    by oculus on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 01:44:27 PM EST
    That's what I recall from a year in Norfolk.  Even the colleges closed.  

    Parent
    Our forecast (none / 0) (#25)
    by cal1942 on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 02:04:37 PM EST
    sunny skies, high 60s.  And this is Michigan.  Normally election day here is cloudy and mild to slightly cool.

    Not this time.

    In heavy early voting states where Obama has a big lead I can understand the theory of inclement weather.  But good weather still gets lots of Democrats out and we need our people voting BOTH early and on the day.

    Parent

    FLorida number (none / 0) (#11)
    by atlmom on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 01:21:13 PM EST
    I see that that advantage to Obama in early voting may not include the absentee ballots?  Is that true?  Absentee is typically very skewed to the Republicans

    Parent
    "just don't want to" (none / 0) (#6)
    by Democratic Cat on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 01:16:21 PM EST
    It sounds like you are taking a small difference, 41% v. 43%, and attributing it to racism.  If the average is 43%, it will be higher in some states and lower in others -- and there could, believe it or not, be reasons for that variation other than racism. (But perhaps I have read too much into your comment.)

    Parent
    Who said anything about racism? (5.00 / 0) (#8)
    by andgarden on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 01:17:42 PM EST
    Southern whites also didn't vote for John Kerry, and aren't voting for Jim Martin either. Hell, they're barely voting for Jim Marshall, and he's practically a Republican.

    Parent
    Ok then (none / 0) (#12)
    by Democratic Cat on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 01:23:18 PM EST
    I did read too much into it.  But I struggled to interpret "just don't want to" on the basis of a two percentage point differential. They just don't want to vote for someone who they perceive is more liberal than they are? They just don't want to vote for someone who wears blue suits? It's a non-sensical statement and I shouldn't have tried to figure out what you could possibly mean by it. Where I live, people just don't want to vote for Republicans. Ok, but so what?

    Parent
    Southern whites vote Republican reflexively (none / 0) (#14)
    by andgarden on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 01:25:49 PM EST
    That was all I mean, and, I would have thought, not controversial. Obama's national lead has not improved his numbers evenly across America.  

    Parent
    At least one FL black also (none / 0) (#26)
    by ruffian on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 02:10:26 PM EST
    I know how much BTD likes anecdotes rather than data. My A-A next door neighbor isn't sold on Obama.

    Anyway, if Obama only gets 99.9999% A-A vote in FL, I will know who held out.

    Parent

    Pls remember (none / 0) (#52)
    by Amiss on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 03:13:06 AM EST
    that approx. half of these "southern whites" you speak of are actually from the north and just "visit" down here, we refer to them as "snow birds", cuz they fly down to avoid the winters. I believe way too many forget this demographic, perhaps it is just too hard to get a handle on.

    Parent
    I don't know FL (5.00 / 0) (#5)
    by Democratic Cat on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 01:13:09 PM EST
    but MO is pretty conservative outside of the major cities. It is not surprising to me that it is close in MO.

    Parent
    maybe the socialism charges (none / 0) (#3)
    by coigue on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 01:10:42 PM EST
    scare some of the latinos who come from socialist countries (the bad ones, not the good ones)

    Parent
    You mean like.... (none / 0) (#23)
    by kdog on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 01:51:35 PM EST
    Tito the Builder?  

    He can "smell" the Chavez on Obama....you can't make this stuff up:)

    Parent

    I am (none / 0) (#28)
    by coigue on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 02:13:55 PM EST
    shaking my head over this.

    Parent
    I hear it non-stop... (none / 0) (#32)
    by kdog on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 02:20:59 PM EST
    from my right-leaning friends and acquantances...."Socialism! Socialism!".

    My standard retort is..."you realize Bush has shown more socialist tendencies than anybody since Lyndon Johnson, right?"

    Hardcore socialism scares me as much as the next freedom-loving American, but Obama sure as hell ain't selling it.

    Parent

    Stephen Colbert had the best response (none / 0) (#33)
    by ruffian on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 02:24:56 PM EST
    Remind people there is an actual Socialist Party in the USA, fielding their own candidate for president.  And he sure as heck is not Barack Obama.  

    Parent
    well (none / 0) (#21)
    by connecticut yankee on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 01:43:09 PM EST
    I'm going out canvassing tommorrow in FL, I'll take care of it. ;)

    Parent
    I'll repeat my prediction.. (none / 0) (#17)
    by TheRealFrank on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 01:30:08 PM EST
    281-253. Obama wins the Kerry states + NM + IA, and then CO, VA and NV.

    Either FL or OH may go for Obama too, but definitely not both, and I'm expecting neither.

    Yeah, I'm cautious.

    That's what I'm feelin' too (none / 0) (#18)
    by andgarden on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 01:31:39 PM EST


    Parent
    Frankly (none / 0) (#27)
    by cal1942 on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 02:12:17 PM EST
    I also think you're right.  The Kerry/Gore states are 264 EVs. Colorado would put Obama over the top.  I think that may have been behind the trips the Obamas made to CO last week.

    I don't trust either Florida or Ohio, especially Florida.

    Parent

    I think OH goes Obama (none / 0) (#31)
    by coigue on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 02:16:51 PM EST
    and from what BTD says, so is FLA.

    I am sayin' both right now.

    Parent

    Doesn't this (none / 0) (#38)
    by eric on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 03:06:13 PM EST
    scenario actually result in a 291 to 247?

    Parent
    Me, too (none / 0) (#48)
    by Coral on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 04:53:29 PM EST
    I'll be surprised if FL and OH both go to Obama. Even though anecdotal evidence I collected show a shift toward the Democrats from 2004. Lots of Southern FL folks are libertarian types who will be affected by the "socialism" card.

    Parent
    Of course, (none / 0) (#30)
    by bocajeff on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 02:16:50 PM EST
    All white southerners are voting for McCain because they are racists?? How about the whites in Western Pennsylvania? Or the "working class whites" in Ohio?

    Not to diminish the evil of racism  but lets not paint with too wide a brush.

    Yup, that was funny (none / 0) (#36)
    by MKS on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 02:59:10 PM EST


    Really? (none / 0) (#45)
    by atlmom on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 03:40:13 PM EST
    I would make an ad from that!

    Parent
    One election expert disagrees. (none / 0) (#37)
    by gabbyone on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 03:04:14 PM EST
    Paul Marston, an elections expert, is staking his 45-year reputation on a public prediction that McCain-Palin will win, based on an analysis that assumes the major pollsters are ignoring the PUMA Factor.
    At 2pm ET Monday, Paul Marston made his latest prediction:

    Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania have edged back up slightly, but are still below the average from two days ago. North Carolina is now a tie and RCP now shows it for McCain-Palin on the no toss up map. The big news is that Florida has come down drastically from 4.2 to 2.5 and is bound to go for McCain-Palin. The stunning news is that Minnesota is coming on like gangbusters. The kind of movement would indicate that Minnesota is quite likely to go for McCain. I will up my prediction from a 42 to a 52 electoral votes margin pending further data. Here is his chart.

    http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=94&Itemid=11 8

    Keeps it much more interesting that is for sure.

    Never heard of him (5.00 / 1) (#39)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 03:07:31 PM EST
    What reputation?

    Parent
    He is apparently. . . (5.00 / 1) (#44)
    by LarryInNYC on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 03:23:33 PM EST
    a Republican direct mail printer and former (1968) recorder of deeds in Maricopa County.

    You'd have to be a tough hombre to go up against that kind of record, BTD.

    Parent

    The one in his own mind n/t (none / 0) (#42)
    by Spamlet on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 03:19:28 PM EST


    Parent
    Riiiiiight (none / 0) (#40)
    by andgarden on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 03:10:41 PM EST
    Well, my chi says differently.

    Parent
    oh yeah. (none / 0) (#43)
    by connecticut yankee on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 03:22:18 PM EST
    He played Mr. Greenjeans on Captain Kangaroo, right?

    Parent
    Root for the Steelers too (none / 0) (#41)
    by 1040su on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 03:11:13 PM EST
    The Redskins home games predicted who wins the election going back to 1936 - until 2004 when it should've been Kerry... or was it?  :) I'm still rooting for the Steelers just in case.
    Snopes

    Geez (none / 0) (#46)
    by atlmom on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 03:42:00 PM EST
    Tomorrow night can't come quickly enough!

    How does IBD (none / 0) (#47)
    by lilburro on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 03:53:18 PM EST
    have 9.5% undecided??

    Obama 364 McCain whatever is left (none / 0) (#49)
    by Jlvngstn on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 04:54:10 PM EST
    My predictions:

    Vote spread  O 52.3   M  43.6

    Oh, FL, NC, NM, CO, NV,


    oops (none / 0) (#50)
    by Jlvngstn on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 04:55:35 PM EST
    and VA and Missouri all go Blue.


    Parent
    got the ev's right (none / 0) (#53)
    by Jlvngstn on Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 10:34:04 AM EST
    although I would never have picked IN over MO but should have knowing lake county.

    Also surprised by the 6 pt margin, really thought the extra 3 million registered dems would move that one point and thought indys would be a 65-35 split which they were not.

    Kudos to BTD for picking the spread which is no small feat.

    Parent

    Even Fox Gives Up The Ghost: Obama 50, McCain 43 | 52 comments (52 topical)

    Readers Must Login or Create an Account to Comment