While Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper and state Attorney General John Suthers make telephone calls to DOJ, three of our Congresspersons are taking action instead of waiting for answers from the Justice Department on Colorado's newly passed Amendment 64. (Amendment 64 legalizes adult possession of small amounts of marijuana, creates a regulatory scheme to license growers and retail outlets and imposes excise taxes on wholesale sales. The text is here.)
Rep. Diana DeGette says she is putting the final touches on a bill that would amend the preemption section of the federal drug law to add a clause that excludes state marijuana laws. The Denver Post, in an editorial, applauds her for taking action and for urging the Justice Department to "show restraint." Reps. Jared Polis and Ed Perlmutter are also working, with DeGette and independently, on federal bills that would allow Amendment 64 to proceed, rather than waiting for an answer from D.O.J. [More...]
Rep. Perlmutter's spokeswoman told the Colorado Independent:[More...]
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...found Republicans gaining an average of 53 seats, which would bring them to 232 total. Democrats are given a 16 percent chance of holding the House, down slightly from 17 percent on Wednesday.
Increasingly, there seems to be something of a consensus among various forecasting methods around a projected Republican figure somewhere in the 50-60 seat range.
Several of the expert forecasters that FiveThirtyEight's model uses, like the Cook Political Report, the Rothenberg Political Report, and Larry Sabato, have stated that they expect the Republicans' overall total to fall roughly in this range. A straw poll of political insiders for Hotline on Call found an average expectation of a 50-seat gain. And some political science models have been forecasting gains somewhere in this range for some time.
The forecast also seems consistent with the average of generic ballot polling. Our model projects that Republicans will win the average Congressional district by between 3 and 4 points.
The modeling also suggests that there is a 90% chance that after Tuesday Democrats will control at least 50 seats in the Senate, but that there is a 0% chance that Democrats will control at least 60 seats.
It's not looking good by any stretch of the imagination.
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