Is anyone watching the Republican debate on Fox News? It just started and Ron Paul is there. They started with the stories on the network news tonight that we are headed to a recession. They all deny it and talk about cutting spending.

Update: Papa Fred must have had a double Starbucks before the debate. He's actually somewhat lively and cracks a few one-liners (all things being relative, of course.)

Update: the highlight so far. Britt Hume asked the candidates whether the Navy commander in the Strait of Hormuz incident in the Persian Gulf made the right decision. McCain, Thompson, Giuliani answered in sync. Then Ron Paul went on the offensive, saying he was disturbed about what he was hearing and that hewould be much more cautious because the voice on the ship radio might not have been the enemy.

Britt Hume stopped him after a minute or so and asked him what he was talking about because the other candidates had praised the Navy commander for using caution. (Hume might have well have said "What planet are you on?)

As expected, Bill Richardson dropped out of the presidential race today. Here 's a transcript of his remarks.

He did not endorse any of his competitors. Instead, he asked everyone to make up their own minds and listed their strengths:

Senator Edwards is a singular voice for the most downtrodden and forgotten among us.

Senator Obama is a bright light of hope and optimism at a time of great national unease, yet he is also grounded in thoughtful wisdom beyond his years.

Senator Clinton's poise in the face of adversity is matched only by her lifetime of achievement and deep understanding of the challenges we face.

He also appeared on CNN's the Situation Room. When asked who he thought would get the Latino vote, he said Hillary Clinton had an edge but Obama could garner support from all minorities, particularly the young ones. [More...]

Andrew Knoupt, the President of the Pew Center, attributes Obama's loss in New Hampshire to race and bigotry, not women. His piece is about why the pollsters got it wrong, but he's not too subtle:

Poorer, less well-educated white people refuse surveys more often than affluent, better-educated whites. Polls generally adjust their samples for this tendency. But here’s the problem: these whites who do not respond to surveys tend to have more unfavorable views of blacks than respondents who do the interviews.

What he's really claiming is that white people who make less than $50k a year and didn't attend college are bigoted.

Mrs. Clinton beat Mr. Obama by 12 points (47 percent to 35 percent) among those with family incomes below $50,000. By contrast, Mr. Obama beat Mrs. Clinton by five points (40 percent to 35 percent) among those earning more than $50,000.

There was an education gap, too. College graduates voted for Mr. Obama 39 percent to 34 percent; Mrs. Clinton won among those who had never attended college, 43 percent to 35 percent.

As to why this didn't happen in Iowa, he only says:

My guess is that Mr. Obama may have posed less of a threat to white voters in Iowa because he wasn’t yet the front-runner. Caucuses are also plainly different from primaries.

I'm not buying this at all, and I think it's insulting to New Hampshire voters.

Update: Here's another view, one I subscribe to more: Hillary's message and moment won the day. [More...]

Senator and former Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry will endorse Barack Obama for President.

The endorsement is considered "a slap at" John Edwards. Edwards beat Kerry in the 2004 South Carolina primary. Edwards' reaction?

"Our country and our party are stronger because of John's service, and I respect his decision. When we were running against each other and on the same ticket, John and I agreed on many issues."

How much effect will the endorsement have?

Since losing the 2004 race, Kerry has kept a national network of supporters intact. He has an e-mail network of 3 million supporters, according to aides. He also has traveled extensively raising millions of dollars for Democratic candidates nationwide.

Nevada will hold caucuses on January 19. The Republican caucuses are non-binding so no one is paying attention. But the Democratic race is heating up. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama increased volunteers and campaign workers in the state right after Iowa. Obama currently has more field offices open than Hillary.

In North Las Vegas on Wednesday, an Obama field office was buzzing with activities and people came in from the streets looking for yard signs and T-shirts. (“Tell Mama Vote Obama” remained on the wall, and there was not a sign for the taking.)

“Senator Obama has invested heavily into this state,” said Shannon Gilson, a spokeswoman for his campaign here. “We aren’t taking anything for granted.”

As I noted yesterday, Obama has garnered the endorsement of two influential unions while Clinton picked up the support of the state's Democratic Congresswoman.

Nevada will be the first western state to vote. Traditionally Republican, except for Clark County which includes Las Vegas, the demographics have been changing. From the NY Times article linked above:[More...]

Tim Johnson Endorses Obama:

South Dakota Senator Tim Johnson is endorsing a colleague for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Johnson says he's backing Barack Obama because he's bi-partisan and wants to bridge differences between the two parties.

(Emphasis supplied.) Um, that endorsement makes me less likely to support Obama. Obama already is having trouble with Dem partisans. This language from Johnson is not helpful.

With all the talk about the polls, the media and the campaign strategists, there's one group who may be more responsible for the votes in Iowa and New Hampshire than all of them -- the volunteers who were "in the field" as they say, going door to door and more, as part of the "GOTV" (get out the vote) effort.

Check out this diary by BdB over at MyDD. It's very well written, totally engrossing and provides another dimension to the election coverage. It's also extemely gracious. It ends with:

One final thing, all of the Edwards and Obama volunteers we met were incredibly nice to us, even after Clinton looked to be winning. I hope they found us nice back.

Update: Keith Olbermann now says Richardson has confirmed he's dropping out to NBC News.

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The AP reports that New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson will announce the end to his presidential campaign tomorrow.

Richardson had one of the most wide-ranging resumes of any candidate ever to run for the presidency, bringing experience from his time in Congress, President Clinton's Cabinet, in the New Mexico statehouse as well as his unique role as a freelance diplomat. As a Hispanic, he added to the unprecedented diversity in the Democratic field that also included a black and a woman.

Keith Olbermann on MSNBC says NBC spoke to his campaign which denies it. According to Olbermann, Richardson may just be suspending his campaign.

Rudy Giuliani's immigration reform plan contains a requirement that immigrants learn to read, write and speak English before being allowed to become citizens.

Think Progress reports today he released a new campaign ad in Florida ...in Spanish.

I am one of the few people who, before the New Hampshire results, expressly stated a belief in the continued existence of the Wilder Effect (named after Douglas Wilder's wide poll lead evaporated on election day (see also Tom Bradley in California and David Dinkins in New york for other examples) - where certain white voters telling pollsters they will vote for a black candidate when they will not. I believe Barack Obama is an African American candidate where this is much less likely to be the case. I think what happened in New Hampshire was clear - women flocked to Hillary in response to the disgraceful misogynistic coverage she was getting from the Media. I do not believe the Wilder Effect had anything to do with it.

But some pollsters, in understandable CYA mode given the fact that their imprecision was exposed for all the world to see, and strangely to me, some Obama supporters, are eagerly forwarding this explanation.

Why strange for Obama supporters? Because if they believe Obama is susceptible to the Wilder Effeect, they are undercutting his electability argument. What would Obama supporters have us do now? Discount 5-7 percent from all poll findings for Obama? Because if that is the case, then he is clearly the least electable candidate. I can not imagine that is what they would want. But that is the logical conclusion to draw.

I reject the Wilder Effect explanation for New Hampshire and believe that we need not discount Obama's poll numbers. I believe he is every bit as electable as Hillary Clinton.

Yesterday the speculation was whether Hillary Clinton would forego Nevada and South Carolina.

In Nevada, Obama expected (and now has received) two union endorsements. In South Carolina, where half the Democratic voters are African-American, a New Hampshire win might have produced an Obama tidal wave.

The Clinton campaign has announced its plans. It's going to fight for Nevada and South Carolina, as well as the "Super Duper Tuesday" states.

For those of us who want as long a primary season as possible, so more Democratic voters will have the opportunity to meaningfully participate in the choice of a nominee, this is good news.

Update: DHinMi at Daily Kos on the county breakdown. This is something I was particularly interested in, see here for example, and appreciate the good analysis.

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More analysis of yesterday's New Hampshire primary, why Hillary won and the pollsters were wrong and what's to come.

• Washington Post, Clinton Teaches Politics 101 concluding the race is now unpredictable:

  In the five days between Iowa and New Hampshire, Clinton ran a campaign. Barack Obama rode a wave. Everyone - myself included - believed the wave would not crest before Tuesday's balloting. Clinton, determined as ever, set out to do something to stop it.

• ABC News: Women Deliver for Clinton, Moderates and Indies for McCain
• CNN: Clinton, Obama Set to Battle
• CBS: Why Hillary Won
• Newsweek on John Edwards, Staying Alive, Unbowed After Iowa
• Newsweek's Jonathan Alter: How Hillary Did It
• Boston.com: Pollsters, What Happened?

From the blogs: [more]