Two to watch tonight. Barack Obama delivers the "top ten" on Letterman while Hillary is interviewed on Nightline.

Is Obama getting tired? Is Hillary just warming up?

Your reactions?

Update: Comments now closed.

The AP and Yahoo News, as part of a polling project, has been returning to the same undecided voters over the course of the past year, in an attempt to analyze how their thinking changes during the course of the presidential campaign.

One of the North Carolina voters the AP followed is Meribeth Howlett, a clinical researcher. She recently made up her mind and just voted absentee for Hillary. She explains her reasoning, which I think is spot-on:

"OK — I made a decision, but I should say up front that I'd be happy to vote for either Hillary or Barack. However, I voted for Hillary Clinton. Yes, I've been on Web sites and found the two to have plans that are remarkably similar and so it came down to a more philosophical decision, who do I BELIEVE will do a better job. Because Barack Obama identifies himself as the best candidate to be an agent of 'real change in Washington,' I was expecting to see some details outlining innovative plans to achieve change, but I did not see anything that stood out as greatly different from what Hillary proposes.

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Part 2 of Bill O'Reilly's Fox News interview with Hillary Clinton airs tonight. It hasn't begun here yet, but some of you in other time zones may have seen it.

Hillary discusses the war in Iraq and says there's nothing left to be achieved. She also says torture doesn't work. Iran, Pakistan and immigration are discussed as well.

Be prepared to turn the channel when the interview is over. They've picked Laura Ingraham to provide analysis of it.

Here are the ratings for last night. Hillary scored big time with the 25 to 34 demographic.

The Pew Research Center: Obama's image is slipping. The AP discusses the poll here.

More polls:

• CNN: Obama losing ground

• Gallup Daily Tracking: Hillary 49, Obama 45.

• Teleresearch (Indiana): Hillary has a 10 point lead over Barack Obama

• In North Carolina:

  Raleigh's Public Policy Polling has found that Obama's one-time lead of 25 points has decreased to 12. A SurveyUSA poll shows him ahead by 5, while the Rasmussen Reports poll has Obama's lead at 14.

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These are days of danger for the Obama nomination. Today he is the likely nominee. But what happens if next Tuesday he loses by 10 in Indiana and wins by 5 in North Carolina? Despite the decree from the now supposedly all important Joe Andrew, the race will continue. And what is up after Indiana and North Carolina? West Virginia on May 13. Clinton leads by 2-1.

On May 20, Kentucky and Oregon. Clinton leads by 36 in Kentucky and Obama leads in Oregon in the last polling there. Will he still on May 20? Oregon will become Obama's firewall. His must win I think. Right now, it seems unlikely that Obama can be be out of the woods until May 20 and Oregon. And only if he wins. If he loses Oregon, all bets are off I think.

By Big Tent Democrat

Comments closed.

Jonathan Singer cites Marc Ambinder's declaration that Barack Obama needs 283 delegates to clinch the Democratic nomination. I like the concept but I question the number.

Ambinder assumes the magic number is 2025, which excludes Florida and Michigan. That is simply unacceptable. 2209 is the magic number, which means Obama is 468 delegates away from the magic number. Clinton is about 600 delegates away. Florida and Michigan must be resolved before we declare that someone has clinched the nomination.

By Big Tent Democrat

The more we hear from Joe Andrew, the less I respect him. Undeterred by the fact that the Clinton campaign has said nothing about him, Andrew decides to go nuclear negative on the Clintons (and his HuffPo post is even worse):

In an interview with ABC News, Andrew says he knows what's coming from his friends at the Clinton campaign. He anticipates the Clinton campaign "will use the same words and the same language to attack me that Republicans used to attack me when I was DNC chair and I was defending Bill Clinton."

"I say this as a longtime participant in old politics," he says. "I've sparred with everyone from Lee Atwater to Karl Rove. . . .The same words will come out of the [Clinton campaign's] surrogates' mouths to attack me that the Republicans used — and that demonstrates the very hypocrisy of the old politics," he says.

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A new Q Poll confirms that Hillary Clinton is the stronger Democratic candidate in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania:

Florida

Clinton 49, McCain 41
McCain 44, Obama 43

Ohio

Clinton 48, McCain 38
McCain 43, Obama 42

Pennsylvania

Clinton 51, McCain 37
Obama 47, McCain 38

Key finding:

Among white working-class voters, Clinton ties McCain 45 - 45 percent in Florida, leads 46 - 40 percent in Ohio and 48 - 40 percent in Pennsylvania. These same voters back McCain over Obama 51 - 34 percent in Florida, 49 - 34 percent in Ohio and 45 - 38 percent in Pennsylvania.

Of course this is not to say Obama can not win these states (though I think he can not win Florida). Just that Clinton has a better chance of winning them.

By Big Tent Democrat

Democrats are moving in the opposite direction:

[From Rasmussen] In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, the Wright impact is especially evident. Clinton now has a statistically insignificant two-point edge over Obama, 46% to 44%. However, that represents a ten-point swing since Wright’s press conference. Before Pastor Wright appeared at the National Press Club, Obama led Clinton by eight points (see recent Democratic Nomination results).

Obama needs to beat Clinton, not have the Superdelegates drive Clinton from the race. It will make him look weak. Andrew's instincts are terrible here. Oh BTW, Ras has Clinton up 5 in Indiana.

I have no respect for this endorsement:

[Former Clinton superdelegate Joe] Andrew said in his letter that he is switching his support because "a vote for Hillary Clinton is a vote to continue this process, and a vote to continue this process is a vote that assists (Republican) John McCain."

Is Obama gonna be a better President? No. Apparently Andrew still thinks Hillary Clinton will be a better President. Is there an issue that moves Andrew? No. Is Obama even more electable than Clinton? Um, no. So why switch? The primary contest is taking too long. Okay. Now there is a winning endorsement. Sheesh.

Clinton picks up a CT superdelegate.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only.

A new CBS/New York Times poll of Democratic voters is out. Obama is ahead of Hillary for the nomination, but he's slipped. And those polled say Hillary fares better in a November election against John McCain.

Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton by eight points among Democratic primary voters nationwide, according to a new CBS News/New York Times poll. But fewer expect Obama to be the Democratic nominee than did one month ago, and fewer see him as the Democrat with the best chance of beating presumptive GOP nominee John McCain in November.

....In a head-to-head match-up with McCain, Clinton fared better than her rival: The New York senator led McCain 48 percent to 43 percent among all registered voters, while Obama and McCain were tied at 45 percent.

The primary poll results are here. The general election poll results are here (pdf).

Update: The new Mason Dixon North Carolina poll has Obama up by 7 with a 5 point margin of error.

Where there is no competition is race. Eighty-seven percent of African Americans plan to vote for Obama, while 62 percent of whites said they will vote for Clinton. There has been very little evidence suggesting either candidate can cut into those numbers before Tuesday.

The poll found Obama does better on the war in Iraq but Hillary does better on the economy.

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A new Insider Advantage North Carolina poll of likely Democratic primary voters is out tonight. Hillary Clinton has pulled into the lead over Barack Obama.

• Hillary Clinton: 44%
• Barack Obama: 42%
• Undecided: 14%

IA says the shift comes from white voters over age 45. It also says Rev. Wright is a factor:

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