Bump and Update(TL): Hillary won Dededo 509 to 313, getting 61% of the vote. As Big Tent says below, that gives Obama a 7 vote win out of 4521 votes. It's Obama 50.1% to Hillary 49.9%.

There will be a recount due to about 500 ballots being "spoiled."

Update (BTD): It has been reported that unofficial initial results have Obama winning the Guam caucus by 7 votes, 2264-2257. I assume a recount may be in order though the delegate split is set. I doubt a 7 vote differential is going to sway the Guam superdelegates.

Update (TL): Still waiting on Dededo. Here's a chart with the caucus results so far. Obama's lead is down to 52.7 % . (7:06 am Guam time.)

While we're waiting, I just checked to see where Obama's Guam office is. It's in Hagåtña , "the island's second smallest village in both area and population" . It's where the government seat is. Dededo's 46,000 residents include 17,000 Chamorros and 24,000 Filipinos. Farming is making a comeback there. There is a university and it has a student group for Obama on his website but it only has 28 members. {More...]

HuffPo e-mailed me my friend Al Giordano's post that lauds Charles Blow's absurd piece that discusses the fact that white folks like Obama but ignores the fact that, as of now, they will not vote for him in large numbers in key swing states.

Blow's column is incomprehensible yet smear filled. Giordano enjoys the smears but ignores the problems:

Obama's favorable and negative ratings among whites have paired at five point increases. . . . [H]e's more popular today among white voters than he ever was prior to February.

Obama is more popular with whites now says Giordano. Which begs the question - then why does he get less white votes now than he did in February? Obama is poised to lose the white vote in North Carolina and Indiana by 3-2 at least. He lost the white vote by 2-1 in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. He loses white working class voters to McCain while Clinton wins them. He now runs worse than ever in head to heads with McCain while Clinton runs better than she ever has.

I do not doubt that Obama is better liked, but I am not at all sure anymore that he is likely to get more VOTES. And votes are what count in politics.

By Big Tent Democrat

John Zogby, after successfully jiggering his PA poll from an Obama lead to a Hillary 10 point advantage in the last three days before the Pennsylvania primary, has regained some Media cred. He is clearly a charlatan imo. But charlatans have political uses. For example, his latest polls have Obama up 9 in North Carolina (yesterday Obama was up 16 in the Zogby poll, which would NORMALLY mean Obama is cratering, but this is Zogby) and Obama up 1 in Indiana (up 1 from yesterday).

This presents an opportunity for the Clinton campaign in terms of the expectations game. Zogby tells a story of a huge Clinton rally in North Carolina from a 16 point deficit five days out. Zogby tells a story of an Indiana race as tight as a tick. I think you can mark it up now, Obama wins NC by 8-10 points. Clinton wins Indiana by 6-10 points. But in terms of expectations, Zogby gives the Clinton camp a lot to work with.

By Big Tent Democrat

Barack Obama has been blasting the temporary lifting of gas taxes as political gamesmanship and bad economic sense. He didn't always. While in the Illinois Senate, he woted for it.

Available on Lexis.com: Chicago Defender July 1, 2000,

While Gov. George H. Ryan signed legislation suspending Illinois' five percent sales tax on gasoline for six months and issued an executive order creating state monitoring teams, Mayor Richard M. Daley Thursday vowed to keep an eagle eye on gas prices in Chicago.

Some people opposed it. Among their arguments:

Dr. Quentin Young, chairman of the Health and Medicine Policy Research Group, who said those funds are earmarked for health, education, and human services.

He called the passage of the state's six-month gas tax reduction nothing more than a "pre-November election states-manship" saying this will only force the legislature to compensate in other ways while "compromising the health of Illinois residents with future raids of the tobacco settlement funds and other state-funded programs."

Where was Obama on the issue?

Senators Kimberly A. Lightford (D-4th) and Barack Obama (D-13th) said the bill gives customers needed temporary relief from high gas prices. "Gas retailers must post on each pump a statement that indicates that the state tax has been suspended and that this temporary elimination of the tax should be reflected in the price per gallon of gas," said Obama.

What happened: [more...]

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama spoke tonight at the Jefferson-Jackson Day Dinner in Raleigh, NC.

Hillary has already spoken. Obama's speech is playing here right now.

More than 5,000 attended the dinner.

Booman finds great insight in this analysis:

It's been a rough few days for Sen. Evan Bayh. After years of holding a near death grip over so much of the state's Democratic Party establishment, the junior senator from Shirkieville has taken a series of very public hits in recent days.

This is based on the fact that the Mayor of Evansville, Indiana Rep. Baron Hill and DC lawyer/lobbyist Joe Andrew endorsed Barack Obama while Bayh supports Hillary Clinton. I think this is silly analysis. To me Bayh's week is better judged by the fact that Clinton has broken open the Indiana race.

It remains to be seen how Indiana will turn out but to me it looks like Clinton will score a double digit victory. Hard to see how that weakens Evan Bayh in Indiana and the Democratic Party.

By Big Tent Democrat

Illegally marked sample ballots for Obama in North Carolina.

For the record, Obama has nothing to do with it imo. Just making a point about double standards and hypocrisy. Big question though - will TPM refer to the Winston Salem Black PAC as the "Illegal Ballots Obama supporting PAC?" (TPM referred to the Women's Voices organization as the "robocalling Clinton group," as if that was their main business.)

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

A new Rasmussen poll is out:

A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that just 30% of the nation’s Likely Voters believe Barack Obama denounced his former Pastor, Jeremiah Wright, because he was outraged. Most—58%--say he denounced the Pastor for political convenience. The survey was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday night. Obama made his statements about Wright on Tuesday.

Comments now closed.

Unlike Color Of Change, I am thinking about ways to unify our divided Democratic Party, not further divide it. Chris Bowers writes:

I have to wonder how divisions of this nature can be healed just given an extra month or two. I also have to wonder if this was always the danger we faced in the primary. Clinton and Obama are both pretty centrist, and do not differ from each other on policy that much (although there are some difference on health care and telecom policy). As such, wasn't this really all about identity from the start? For a primary campaign to be based on identity instead of on policy is a ticking time bomb for any coalition, especially one that is built on historically under-represented groups in D.C. like African-Americans, Latinos, women and the LGBT community.

One important way is to stop denigrating portions of this coalition. All parts of the coalition are important - African Americans, Latinos, white women, white working class and yes, Creative Class whites too. Dems must unify for November. Let's respect all parts of our Democratic coalition. The best way to do this is to support a Unity Ticket between two candidates who have split the Democratic primary vote almost right down the middle.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only.

The largest newspaper in Indiana has endorsed Hillary Clinton:

Obama offers an attractive vision for the way things could be. He speaks eloquently of hope and change. He connects with voters, many who formerly felt disenfranchised, on a level few political leaders have attained.

Clinton offers a clear-eyed view of the way things are. She offers nuanced positions on how to address the war in Iraq, trade with China and economic expansion. Her depth of knowledge is remarkable.

More...

While we can pretend there have been recent ebbs and flows in the campaign, the reality is that from Super Tuesday on, almost invariably demography has been political destiny. Tell me the demographics of a state and I can tell you roughly what the electoral result will be. Consider North Carolina and Indiana. In North Carolina, Research2000 has Obama up 7. In Indiana, Ras has Clinton up 5. Why? To put it bluntly, it is because there are many more African American voters in North Carolina. Clinton leads among whites by 36 points in North Carolina and by 19 points in Indiana. She trails among African Americans in North Carolina by 88-5 and in Indiana by 90-4. In North Carolina a third of the electorate will be African American. In Indiana, 10% will be African Americans.

Clinton can not win in North Carolina. Period. And in Indiana, it is looking like Obama can not win. Looking forward, Obama has no chance in West Virginia or Kentucky. Where can he break this demographic narrative? Oregon. More . .

Color of Change is circulating an outrageous, deplorable and fallacious petition:

Leaders of the Democratic Party are playing a dangerous game -- risking the credibility of the party to hand Hillary Clinton the nomination against the will of voters. Heading down this path means disenfranchising millions of voters and legitimizing a campaign strategy that has displayed a clear pattern of race baiting and divisive politics.

If Hillary Clinton wins the popular vote and the Super Delegates hand the nomination to Barack Obama, the Democratic Party will have acted against the will of the voters. Despite that, I would whole heartedly support Barack Obama's candidacy in November. In addition, Color of Change falsely smears the Clinton campaign while engaging in race baiting and divisive politics itself. Color of Change smears not only Hillary Clinton, but the millions of Democrats who support her.

As a Latino, I denounce and reject Color of Change's petition. It is an outrageous, divisive, racially polarizing and deplorable act. At a time when all Democrats should be thinking about unifying the democratic Party behind our eventual nominee, who in all likelihood will be Barack Obama, Color of Change acts to exacerbate divisions. This petition hurts the Democratic Party and it hurts Barack Obama's chances to win in November. Color of Change's petititon should be rejected by Democrats of all stripes.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only.