A new Insider Advantage poll from North Carolina was released this afternoon. It was taken yesterday and shows Hillary and Barack Obama in a statistical dead heat: Obama 48%, Hillary 45%. Undecided: 7%.

Actual poll results are here.

InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery: “Really interesting dynamics at play here. Clinton has increased her lead among white voters to 58% - very close to the 60% plus level needed to pull off a victory. She now leads among those who say they are Democrats but has started to trail among Unaffiliated voters, who are allowed to participate in Tuesday’s election. Additionally, African-American voters are not quite as solid with Obama as they have been, at least based on previous exit polls. Clinton has remained in the upper teens (17%) of African-American support in our recent surveys. African-American turnout will be the key to this race. Our poll is based on a turnout model of 35% African-American vote. Anything under that number could give Clinton a shocking upset. But Indiana has become a true horserace that should concern the Clinton camp."

Obama: politics of change, hope and unity? Check out his new ad attacking Hillary Clinton airing today on television called "Hometown."

He accuses Hillary of taking the low road on the economy. Shorter version: Meet the new boss, he's the same as the ones he's trying to replace.

Text of ad below:

The final SUSA NC poll is out, Obama by 5, 50-45.

The crosstabs. Key findings - Clinton wins whites 62-32 (64% of the vote). Obama wins African Americans 85-12 (32% of the vote).

From the ABC story:

According to SurveyUSA's 8th and final tracking poll, conducted exclusively for ABC11 Eyewitness News, on the final day of the fiercely fought campaign, Senator Barack Obama holds on with 50% of the vote to Senator Hillary Clinton's 45% of those polled.

. . . In Charlotte and Western NC, there is the slightest momentum for Clinton. In the Research Triangle, in Southern NC and in Coastal NC, there is slight offsetting momentum to Obama. The net is a wash. If Obama wins, it will be entirely from the 19% of voters who describe themselves as liberal. Clinton leads by 9 among conservatives and leads by 8 among moderates.

. . . 1 in 4 of SurveyUSA's likely voters say they have already voted. Among those who say they have already voted, Obama leads by 16 points. Among those who say they will vote on Primary Day, Obama and Clinton are effectively tied.

Update: The new SUSA poll out today confirms that delegate-wise, North Carolina is pretty meaningless:

There is no foreseeable outcome in North Carolina, regardless of which candidate wins the popular vote, where one candidate collects significantly more convention delegates than the other.

Therefore, the exact final vote totals have much more symbolic importance than real importance.

***

Congressional Quarterly (CQ Politics) says even if Obama wins North Carolina, he is likely only to gain 3 more delegates than Hillary at the District level. Of North Carolina's 134 delegates to the national convention, 77 are district delegates.

Despite Obama's eight-point advantage in recent North Carolina polls, CQ Politics forecasts a gain of only three district-level delegates in tomorrow's primary.

More...

While tomorrow may be up in the air, the May 13 West Virginia primary is not in doubt. Ras sez Clinton by 29, 56-27.

BTW, here is Geoff Garin's answer to my Magic Number question. Here is the entire call.

Let's make this an Open Thread.

By Big Tent Democrat

PPP's Final NC poll has Obama up 10, 53-43. The key data: Clinton wins whites 62-35 (61% of the vote). Obama win African Americans 84-11 (35% of the vote).

PPP has an interesting discussion about their turnout model:

Obviously how you choose to nail down that figure can have a pretty significant effect on your Presidential numbers when the electorate is so polarized along racial lines. We settled on 35%. We asked folks who were polled if they had voted early. Taking all of the respondents in our poll, if 40% of those who voted early were black then 35% of the population as a whole was.

In other words, they threw a dart. Keep this in mind when you hear about "scientific polling." That said, the poll feels right to me.

The Suffolk University Poll for Indiana taken over the weekend has Hillary 49, Obama 43. Six percent are still undecided.

Suffolk says:

"Although the margin appears to be single digits at this point, the outcome will hinge on high turnouts in Marion and Lake counties, which are crucial for Obama."

....A considerably high 38 percent indicated they would vote for McCain, while 6 percent said they would vote for independent Ralph Nader, and an additional 11 percent were undecided.

"This 38 percent is one of several statistical signs that Republicans are meddling in the Democratic fray, knowing full well they will vote Republican come November," said Paleologos.

The margin of error is 4%.

Obama told reporters this morning in Indiana that "Every poll shows it is a dead heat."

The final SUSA Indiana poll has Hillary Clinton winning by 12, 54-42.

Key findings: Clinton wins whites 58-39 (87% of the vote, Obama wins African Americans 77-21 (10% of the vote).

I do not believe the African American finding. Doing my SUSA adjustments (A-As 90-10 for Obama, undecided whites 2-1 for Clinton), I get the following result: Clinton 54-46.

By Big Tent Democrat

Garin's answer to my question here.

During the Clinton Press Call, I asked about the magic number:

I asked about the Magic Number, if the Clinton camp accepts 2025 [the number w/out FL and MI] as the Magic Number or do they insist that it be 2209 [the number with FL and MI included]. I asked specifically if Obama garnered 2209 delegates, would they accept that he had won the nomination. At first Garin seemed to accept this argument but then other speakers [Phil Singer I believe] for Clinton seemed to NOT accept it, calling the issue "academic."

I was surprised by this reaction from the Clinton campaign. The reasoning was there was a process in place to determine WHETHER Florida and Michigan would be seated and therefore, I surmise, the Magic Number was not knowable at this time. This line of argument, it seems to me, undermines the Clinton high ground on Michigan and Florida. Will they claim victory without seating Florida and Michigan? How do they achieve such a victory? Would it be acceptable to the Clinton campaign not to resolve Florida and Michigan prior to determining the nominee? I must say that the answers on this issue were not coherent imo. Nor is it politically smart. Right now, MSNBC is discussing the Magic Number as 2025, stating that Obama will need only 38% of the remaining delegates if the delegates are split tomorrow. And the Clinton Camp seems unwilling to push back on this.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only.

This morning's Clinton conference call is all about setting expectations.

Clinton says a month ago, the RCP average for Indiana Obama led by 7 points. "That is his baseline" argues Geoff Garin. Clinton will do better than that. In North Carolina, In North Carolina, RCP average Obama led by close to 20 points. Clinton will do better than that.

Wolfson discusses the Obama memo, which predicts victories for Obama of 7 points in Indiana and 8 points in North Carolina. Wolfson discusses Joe Andrews' flat prediction that Obama will win Indiana and North Carolina.

Wolfson seems pretty confident about Indiana. More . . .

USA Today reports on its new poll conducted with Gallup:

Barack Obama's national standing has been significantly damaged by the controversy over his former pastor, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, raising questions for some voters about the Illinois senator's values, credibility and electability.

The erosion of support among Democrats and independents raises the stakes in Tuesday's Indiana and North Carolina primaries, which represent a chance for Obama to reassert his claim to a Democratic nomination that seems nearly in his grasp.

The numbers:

In the USA TODAY survey, taken Thursday through Saturday, Clinton leads Obama among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents by 7 percentage points, the first time in three months she has been ahead. Two weeks ago, before the controversy over comments by Jeremiah Wright reignited, Obama led by 10 points.

Then there's this:

Eight of 10 Americans have been following [the Rev. Wright controversy] most of them closely...Just 1% of likely voters say Obama's links to Wright make them more likely to support him.

If I were an Indiana voter listening to Obama, I don't think I'd appreciate him telling me that since I've lost my job, I've lost my dignity. The crowd didn't react to the statement. Certainly no cheering.

See what you think.