You gotta love the newly all important Obama surrogate Joe Andrew. Sunday, just 2 days ago, he was giving a Joe Namath guarantee that Barack Obama would win Indiana. Now I am watching him on MSNBC (the Obama News Network, as Chris "Tweety" Matthews admitted) claiming it would be a miracle like parting the Red Sea if Obama comes close in Indiana.

Andrew, the DC lawyer/lobbyist, is a hoot. This is an Open Thread.

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Hillary Clinton has no secret plan to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates. She's been totally transparent on her efforts to seat both delegations. Here's her plan, according to her campaign on May 4:

There is no secret plan. In fact, this story misrepresents the process laid out in the DNC rules for resolving the questions surrounding the seating of the Michigan and Florida delegations.

The Clinton campaign has been vocal in stating that the votes of 2.5 million people must be respected. Hardly a day goes by when a Clinton official doesn’t publicly declare that the votes of Michigan and Florida count and that the delegations from those states should be seated.

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Update [2008-5-6 14:14:16 by Big Tent Democrat]: Al Gore expects Michigan and Florida delegations to be seated.

Bumped and updated (BTD) This story has become a big one today. Hillary Clinton said 2209 is the magic number. Howard Dean said the DNC wants to seat FL and MI. Andrea Mitchell does not like it.

Yesterday, on the Clinton Media call, I asked if the Clinton campaign agreed that that Magic Number for securing the nomination was 2025, or did it believe that the Magic Number must include the MI/FL delegations, which would make the magic number 2209. The Media is picking up on Garin's answer: [More . . .]

It is the time of day for the standard "turnout is heavy" stories. Political Wire has two:

Turnout Very Heavy

Charlotte Observer: "Long lines were reported this morning at some polling places across North Carolina in the state's first significant presidential primary election in two decades... Longtime N.C. political observers say that 1.5 million voters may participate in the historic Democratic primary."

Indianapolis Star: "More voters have turned out in the first half hour than usually turn out in a half day... Republicans appeared to be crossing over in droves today in Marion County and suburban counties."

The Republicans in Marion County part is interesting. The "It's Rush Limbaugh's fault" contingent is no doubt revving up.

Chuck Todd, once a respected voice, now on MSNBC declaring "campaigning over" today. I guess West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, etc., do not matter. Chuck, what happened to you man?

By Big Tent Democrat

Below I wrote that Barack Obama can win the nomination today by sweeping North Carolina and Indiana. But the reality is Obama can not lose in North Carolina. If he does, then he is in serious serious trouble. Why? Because in order to lose North Carolina, Obama will have to garner less than 30% of the white vote. Remember, North Carolina's electorate today will be comprised of at least 32% and likely more African Americans. They will vote for Obama by at least 9-1. Thus, in order to win North Carolina, Obama only needs to capture about 30% of the remaining vote, almost all of it white. Let me repeat - Hillary Clinton can win 70% of the white vote in North Carolina and lose. The fact is Obama can not lose North Carolina. Period.

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As we're following the news, I wonder how our expectations will change throughout the day as we hear from anchors, surrogates and pundits. Let's hear your early predictions for both states, with point spreads, and then we'll do another this mid-afternoon and this evening.

One winner from each prediction thread will get a present from TalkLeft (I'll have to figure out a fair way to choose if there's a tie.)

I'm also putting a poll below.

Update (9:50 am MT): George Stephanopoulous on the campaigns' predictions:

Obama's supporters suggested to Stephanopoulos that Clinton would win in Indiana by as much as eight points, and Clinton's camp hinted that Obama would win by as much as 10 points in North Carolina. If either of those margins are trimmed, the loser will likely claim some sort of upset victory.

***

Terry McCauliffe was on Fox News this morning with Bill Hemmer. Hemmer said word is from Drudge that Clinton advisors say Obama will take N.C. by 15 points. He asked Terry if he's hearing those numbers and if he thinks Hillary can win that state. McCauliffe said he's never spoken to Drudge in his life and he hasn't heard those numbers.

If Barack Obama wins Indiana and North Carolina today, he will effectively end the contest for the Democratic nomination. John Zogby is making his play for relevance by predicting that Obama will indeed do that. The pundit Zogby again stands out as predicting Obama will win Indiana by 2 and North Carolina by 14. No other pollster has Obama winning Indiana. Most other pollsters predict a much closer race in NC.

Key NC data from Zogby - "Obama wins 79% support among African Americans, compared with 11% for Clinton, the junior senator from New York. But while Clinton wins among whites, 52% to 37%[.] . . .The African American vote in the North Carolina primary is expected to be about 32%."

Key Indiana data from Zogby - "Clinton leads among white voters, 48% to 40%, with 12% left unsure or supporting someone else. Among African Americans in the Hoosier state, Obama leads by an 82% to 13% edge over Clinton, going a long way to boost Obama statewide. African American voters in the Democratic primary comprise about 11% of the electorate."

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Update: Here's the ad.

Ouch.

Paul Krugman says an Obama ad attacking Hillary on gas tax relief misrepresents what he said.

I did not say that the Clinton proposal would increase oil industry profits. If the ad implies that I did, it should be retracted.

....I was very clear when I wrote about the Clinton proposal that while I didn’t think it was good policy, it was not the same as McCain’s, and relatively harmless. If the Obama people are suggesting otherwise, they’re being deliberately dishonest.

Krugman's original column is here. It attacks only McCain's plan which is not the same as Hillary's.

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A new AP-Ipsos national poll has just been released. Hillary has some serious momentum happening.

Clinton (47%) Overtakes Obama (40%) Nationally On Eve of Indiana And North Carolina Primaries ; Poll Shows Clinton Campaign Picking Up Steam With Democrats Nationally

47% say that if the 2008 Democratic presidential primary or caucus was being held in their state today, they would choose Clinton, while 40% would vote for Barack Obama.

These results are in contrast to a poll conducted by Ipsos from April 23rd to April 27th and released last week which showed that Obama had a forty-six percent to forty-three percent lead over Clinton on this same question.

Hillary's greatest support is coming from women with high school education or less and low income voters. The margin of error is 3.1%.

Thanks to all who contributed to our TL Appreciation Days. We've had a great response and we thank every one of you. We'll bump it a few times until early afternoon tomorrow and then it will fade into the archives.

Here's an open thread for you. What haven't we covered? What more do you have to say?

Hillary:

• 2:30 p.m., Appearance in Merrillville, IN.
• 7:30 p.m., Rally in New Albany, IN.
• 9:45 p.m., Rally in Evansville, IN.

Here's Obama

• 7:30 p.m., Rally in Indianapolis, IN.
• 9:15 p.m., Appearance in Gary, IN. (Spouse)
• Time N/A, Appearance in Evansville, IN.

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