Obama Can End The Race Today By Wins In IN and NC

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:35:35 AM EST
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If Barack Obama wins Indiana and North Carolina today, he will effectively end the contest for the Democratic nomination. John Zogby is making his play for relevance by predicting that Obama will indeed do that. The pundit Zogby again stands out as predicting Obama will win Indiana by 2 and North Carolina by 14. No other pollster has Obama winning Indiana. Most other pollsters predict a much closer race in NC.

Key NC data from Zogby - "Obama wins 79% support among African Americans, compared with 11% for Clinton, the junior senator from New York. But while Clinton wins among whites, 52% to 37%[.] . . .The African American vote in the North Carolina primary is expected to be about 32%."

Key Indiana data from Zogby - "Clinton leads among white voters, 48% to 40%, with 12% left unsure or supporting someone else. Among African Americans in the Hoosier state, Obama leads by an 82% to 13% edge over Clinton, going a long way to boost Obama statewide. African American voters in the Democratic primary comprise about 11% of the electorate."

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

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Obama Can End The Race Today By Wins In IN and NC | 49 comments (49 topical)

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Yes, he could (5.00 / 4) (#2)
by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:38:32 AM EST

Trouble is that I don't believe Zogby--at all. In Indiana, Hillary is clearly above 48% of the white vote. In NC, she is clearly above 54%. In both cases she picks up at least 10% more of the white vote than Zogby is calling for.

He should quit his day job.

McCain must be licking his chops (5.00 / 4) (#6)
by MarkL on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:44:41 AM EST

at the thought of Obama wrapping it up.

: Nope, he's living in fear of it... (none / 0) (#32)
by Denni on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:59:38 AM EST

as are the rest of the Cons. Notice the Indiana robocalls against Obama for being 'pro choice'? Did National Right to Life not know that Clinton claimed to be pro choice as well? Why didn't they create a robocall script for her!?!?! As Ann Coultergeist has said, 'She's our girl, Sean', referring to Hannity about why they should support Clinton.

By the way, I think the reverse holds: (5.00 / 2) (#8)
by MarkL on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:46:51 AM EST

if Hillary wins NC and IN, the race is over and Obama needs to drop out. That is the will of THIS people.

Questionable (5.00 / 2) (#10)
by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:49:12 AM EST

At this point, just about every race is an elimination match for HIllary. Not so much for Obama, who padded his delegate total with caucus BS.


Yes, but if Obama loses NC, he has (5.00 / 1) (#12)
by MarkL on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:50:25 AM EST

utterly lost the electability argument. Every SD vote for Obama would be a vote for McCain to be President, in that case.


Probably (5.00 / 1) (#14)
by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:51:40 AM EST

But SDs will take seriously Obama supporter threats to tear apart the party.


: Realistically, Obama has already torn apart (5.00 / 6) (#15)
by MarkL on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:52:15 AM EST

the party with his campaign.

: Sadly you are right. (none / 0) (#49)
by AX10 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:38:47 PM EST

Obama's suppoters reak of the same horrible stench that Bush's supporters had eight years back. Heaven forbid they don't get their way, they threated and intimidate everyone into going along with them. Can we really afford this type of behavior for another term? I do not believe we can.

Do caucus states only count (none / 0) (#33)
by Denni on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:01:45 AM EST

when Clinton wins them? FL and MI broke the rules, Clinton agreed to not count them and said that we could 'make up later' - obviously before she lost. Now they should count. People who played by the rules voted, but their process is just B.S.!??!!? They don't count? ;-(


One thing I know (5.00 / 3) (#17)
by magisterludi on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:55:33 AM EST

in my bones- if Obama is the nominee, Cindy can start measuring for drapes right now. Obama is no longer electable.

The corollary is (5.00 / 2) (#18)
by Andre on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:56:09 AM EST

then, the other side of the coin has to be that if Clinton wins both of them, Obama is out. Or am I going against the media narrative?

yes, please obey the script - (5.00 / 1) (#23)
by Josey on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:28:23 AM EST

the media chooses the nominees.
Did you see Charlie Rose last night? ugh
He and Chuck Todd had a grand time with the WWTBBQ?
Two men laughing it up, misogyny dripping all over the interview - it was disgusting.
Rose even said "Who will Hillary blame if she loses?"
My rough draft to him needs to be tempered before I click "send."


Heh (none / 0) (#24)
by Steve M on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:30:21 AM EST

Who will the media blame if Obama loses?


: White racist Democrats (5.00 / 1) (#27)
by Democratic Cat on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:34:32 AM EST

"America wasn't ready." That will be the meme, and it will handicap Clinton's efforts to win back AA voters in the Fall.

Hearing about the Zogby poll on my way in (5.00 / 1) (#21)
by Anne on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:18:18 AM EST

to work gave me a much-needed laugh. This followed the laugh I had yesterday, when Fritz Wenzl from Zogby, in his Zogby Minute on POTUS 08, talked about the reliability of Zogby's polling being supported by their precision in calling the Pennsylvania primary. Really, he said that.

There's something very wrong about Zogby's high undecided numbers, so I've decided they must be serving as his fudge factor. However, since I expect he's making a good living pretending to divine the intentions of the electorate, the joke's on us and he's laughing all the way to the bank.

In any event, I'm expecting Clinton to do much better than most have predicted, and Obama to do much worse. The key may be the AA vote, which if it is below previous demographic models, is going to be very bad for him. Very bad.

So...she does better, goes on to huge wins in WV and KY, while Obama's boredom and impatience grow, he goes on more shows to whine about Hillary, his attacks on Hillary get more reprehensible and desperate, and the wake-up call can no longer be ignored: Hillary can win the White House, and Barack cannot.

All I can say is, thank God for American Idol and Hell's Kitchen, which will hold my interest until 10:00 EDT, at which point, there may be some GREAT news for Hillary and all who have supported and believed in her!

panic in blogistan (5.00 / 1) (#25)
by Capt Howdy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:31:58 AM EST

"The pundits are in a frenzy over game day in NC and IN. Hillary said NC will be a "game changer" (but the game is already over)"

Sudsboy over at Ablog may need some HeadOn later tonight.

: Hmm.. I think some RID would help (5.00 / 1) (#28)
by MarkL on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:36:50 AM EST

with the worst of the infestation.

This race ended on SuperTuesday (1.00 / 2) (#1)
by Denni on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:38:16 AM EST

This is just a matter of prolonging the agony, and McCain just keeps moving on... solidifying his base and focusing on a Veep.

If that's so (5.00 / 6) (#3)
by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:39:33 AM EST

then, as Todd Beeton asks, why isn't Obama back in Chicago raising money? Why did he spend $10M+ in PA.


It was OVER then... that's the truth... (1.00 / 3) (#30)
by Denni on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:57:19 AM EST

the only thing left was to decide the margin of victory via the remaining primaries/caucuses. I'm not going to play the 'fuzzy math' game. The factual data have been repeatedly posted at various news sites.

The only reason Sen. Obama continues to spend money is to keep the huge lead he has.


huge lead? (none / 0) (#36)
by kempis on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:15:35 AM EST

How huge?

What am I missing?

I thought he had a 2% lead?


That's Obama math. (none / 0) (#39)
by vicsan on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:35:34 AM EST

They do it differently than most people. They also don't count the millions of voters in MI and FL. "Obuzzy" math.


: hard to add (none / 0) (#48)
by otherlisa on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:03:46 PM EST

when you're on Hopium.

If it had ended on Super Tuesday (5.00 / 4) (#7)
by FlaDemFem on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:45:30 AM EST

then Obama would have gotten all the delegates needed for the nomination. He didn't. Therefore it isn't over yet. And FYI, the nominee is chosen at the convention, after ALL the primaries are over. Not after the first few where only a portion of the voters have had a chance to vote. For a candidate who claims to speak for the people, Obama is very reluctant to let the people speak. Why is that, I wonder?


I agree (5.00 / 1) (#31)
by Marvin42 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:58:12 AM EST

When Sen Obama failed to grab NJ or CA it was over, he had lost any chance of winning in GE by exposing his weaknesses.

When do you think he'll drop out so Clinton can unite the democrats?


Maniacal Ambition (1.00 / 5) (#22)
by LooseKannon on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:24:20 AM EST

Mrs. Clinton's drive goes beyond her believing she's got the sole ability to run the country while, to use the NASCAR lingo she's picked up in an awful hurry, pulling us out of a wicked two term Bushian skid. There's something maniacal about her ambition and the feeling I get watching her otherwise admirable energy is less Energizer Bunny than Manchurian Candidate. (www.loosekannon.com)

: Maniacal? (none / 0) (#34)
by AnninCA on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:03:15 AM EST

In what way? She's ahead in national polls and has momentum, so her enthusiasm seems warranted to me.
She's got a broader and deeper group of constituents than he does.
I see nothing maniacal at all by thinking she has good reason to see this out to the end.

: Too bad more citizens will have actually (none / 0) (#38)
by vicsan on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:31:44 AM EST

voted for Hillary than for Barack by the time this is over. Last I heard, the MAJORITY wins. Last I heard, we have 50 States in this country and EACH citizens gets a vote...whether Barack wants to count them or not. Last I heard, the Super Delegates are to vote for the candidate THEY believe can beat McCain in November, NOT who Barack thinks they should vote for. Last I heard, that ISN'T Barack.
Hillary's maniacal? At least she's qualified for the job. That more than I can say about Barack.

So in NC (none / 0) (#4)
by mikeyleigh on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:42:06 AM EST

10 percent of the AA vote is still undecided. Or does Zogby not realize that 79 and 11 equals 90. I don't believe that large a bloc of AA voters haven't made up their minds yet. His 5 percent in Indiana, well maybe.

sooooo (none / 0) (#9)
by TruthMatters on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:47:48 AM EST

only white people and other races can be undecided at this point?

or you say there should be NO undecideds at this point?


: Actually, there really shouldn't (5.00 / 1) (#11)
by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:49:51 AM EST

be so many undecideds. I highly doubt that there are. Zogby is full of it.

: Well (5.00 / 2) (#19)
by Steve M on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:02:14 AM EST

considering we have seen this pattern in EVERY state so far, you probably could have done better than suggesting racism on the part of another commentor. If all of the "undecided" AA voters go for Obama in every single state, it's fair to infer that most of them weren't really undecided.

: What I'm saying is that most polls (none / 0) (#20)
by mikeyleigh on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:03:04 AM EST

aren't showing that large a number of undecided AA voters. Why does Zogby? That's all. No need to go all silly on me.

Zogby is (none / 0) (#5)
by Ga6thDem on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:43:44 AM EST

making me think that Hillary will win both races despite all evidence to the contrary. His own demographic breakdowns show that there's no way Obama can win IN. There just aren't enough AA's in that state to make it so.

Right now I think Hillary wins In and Obama wins NC. And we continue to go on until June.

Are Zogby's comments similar to . . . (none / 0) (#13)
by wurman on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:51:29 AM EST

. . . the "fantasy teams" that online players make up to demonstrate how silly they can be in imagining vastly different outcomes than any stuff in the reality-based community? You know, like Nolan Ryan is still throwing 100mph & on the Cubs, Kareem shoots hoops for the Knicks as well as "God is in his Heaven, and all is right with the World."

In this dimension, on this planet Earth, Sen. Obama will be lucky to pick up 3 or 4 more delegates in NC--even if he "wins" 53/O - 44/C & 3/other.

That's "other" vote in NC amuses me (5.00 / 1) (#16)
by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:52:31 AM EST

I believe it will go to Hillary in the end.


: as to "other" (none / 0) (#42)
by Kathy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:13:01 AM EST

I saw that Clinton has appointed a Pan-Asian outreach team for Oregon. No word that Obama has done this.
Dang, our girl is smart. I'm so nervous about today that I need my inhaler! Does anyone think this will be finished by midnight? BTD, you should start a thread where we can list "top ten stupid statements by pundits that will be uttered at 7:01 pm"
"Too close to call!"

Zogby's calculus doesn't . . . (none / 0) (#26)
by Doc Rock on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:33:04 AM EST

. . . appear to reckon with women voters nor with economic classes of likely voters. Could this be skewing his data?

: I think age, too, is a factor (5.00 / 1) (#43)
by Kathy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:15:02 AM EST

some googling around has told me that the NC aa population tends to skew older. These are the folks Maya Angelou and Bill Clinton reached out to.
Also, I don't think the polls are taking into account that Bill has been going to these small, rural towns where they tend to skip voting in the primary and energized a whole new set of what I'll call "sleeper dems." Like sleeper cells, kind of. Bill's got them ready to go to the polls.

Zogby's a clown (none / 0) (#29)
by GOPmurderedconscience on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:43:13 AM EST

Why would Zogby still b considered an A-list pollster. He has had the most embarrassing predictions of the entire campaign.

I think I could come up with a better guess by reading a couple of dispatches from the campaign trail.

I'm surprised (none / 0) (#35)
by lilburro on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:11:17 AM EST

the Clinton campaign isn't being more conservative. They seem to be playing up NC even though it appears they will still lose it. Do they know something I don't? Are they just going all out because they expect to win at least IN?

WWTSBStopWinning?

Even if he wins, (none / 0) (#37)
by kredwyn on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:22:16 AM EST

I noticed that he's got other problems down the line.

Was watching the TV screens at 9 ball last night. Ayers started heating up last night.

Ayers is getting huge (none / 0) (#45)
by Kathy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:16:00 AM EST

My accountant (who has extremely conservative clients. And me.) has gotten that Ayers pic in his email about twenty times this week.


: I saw it last night... (none / 0) (#46)
by kredwyn on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:53:04 AM EST

and went "Oh Sh**...there it goes." It's not a far step for the easy definition of the candidate as one steeped in the "hate America first" crowd.
Put that up against McCain and his POW thing.

darn that hillary! (none / 0) (#40)
by cpinva on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:49:12 AM EST

doesn't she know it was all over but the shouting on super tuesday? why oh why does she insist on keeping on winning? the overweaning ambition of that woman is just scandalous!

"the king is dead, long live the king!"

One million voters off rolls in IN (none / 0) (#41)
by Lora on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:06:52 AM EST

According to Bev Harris of Black Box Voting,

In April 2008 when Indiana Secretary of State Todd Rokita announced the release of "record high" voter registration rolls, with 4.3 million voters set to vote in the Tuesday May 6 primary, he didn't mention that a whopping 1,134,427 voter registrations have been cancelled.

(emphasis mine)

Think that might affect the primary?

Zogby's claim: Obama is ahead due to early voting (none / 0) (#44)
by jerry on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:15:21 AM EST

Last night on Air America, Zogby claimed (or at least a Zogby representative claimed) that 30% of those that would vote have already voted in Indiana, they voted pre-Reverend Wright, and so they voted for Obama.

Obama can end the race (none / 0) (#47)
by Lola939 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 11:59:56 AM EST

No one is stating the fact that before Obama ran in the primary the black voters were all for Hillary, but now it's obvious that a very large percentage are voting for Obama just because he is black. I don''t care what Rev Wright preaches in his church, but if Oprah had the sense to walk away after only a few years, why did Obama walk away only after 20 years and a personal attack when Rev Wright called him a politician. My objection to Obama is his lack of judgment and his inexperience. The Super delegates are backing Obama because they are afraid of riots. They also have profited by backing him. He has donated over $600,000 to Super delegates. Without Florida and Michigan having their votes counted this will be a bigger mess than the hanging chads. Obama doesn't want a revote in those states, and he is petrified to debate Hillary one on one after the poor performance in the ABC debate, especially the second half. Obama should play it safe and just keep making speeches. If Obama supporters truly believed in him, I would think they would want to see how he would handle himself in a real debate and they would want every vote in every state to count. Obama stopped the re-vote in MI because he is ahead, but everyone knows that he would have lost both states and would be down in the popular vote and possibly the delegates.