John Judis:

[2012] is most likely [to be] a situation similar to that faced by George H.W. Bush in 1992: a sluggish economy that is improving, but at a sufficiently slow rate to leave a gap between fact and perception that rival politicians will attempt to fill.

So far, Obama has not done very well in filling that gap. He has allowed Republicans to make a case that things are getting worse, and he has cooperated with them in taking measures that will actually make things worse. He has allowed Republicans to set the terms of the debate. It has been about the perils of deficits and debt. That is not just bad economics; it also leads Democrats into a political cul-de-sac.

Ezra Klein writes:

So in 1978, Dick Gephardt quite sensibly tied the debt ceiling to the budget: Once Congress decided how much we were going to tax, spend and borrow, the Treasury Department was authorized to carry out those instructions. In 1995, House Republicans wanted leverage over President Bill Clinton, so they brought the debt ceiling back. It’s easier to get people to listen to you if you threaten to destroy their credit rating if they don’t. And now, in 2011, they’re doing it again.

Indeed they are. Here is how Clinton handled their threats in 1995:

Clinton Vetoes Borrowing Bill -- Government Shutdown Nears As Rhetoric Continues To Roil

WASHINGTON - With the clock ticking toward a midnight shutdown, President Clinton vetoed a temporary borrowing bill today and prepared to close most government operations in a jolting political fight with Congress. [. . .] "This is not the time or the place for them to backdoor their budget proposals," [Clinton] said.

After raising taxes on the rich in 1993 and standing up to the GOP on the debt ceiling in 1995, President Clinton won reelection in 1996 in a landslide.

Speaking for me only

In a column critiquing Paul Ryan's plan for Medicare, Paul Krugman writes:

“Consumer-based” medicine has been a bust everywhere it has been tried. To take the most directly relevant example, Medicare Advantage, which was originally called Medicare + Choice, was supposed to save money; it ended up costing substantially more than traditional Medicare. America has the most “consumer-driven” health care system in the advanced world. It also has by far the highest costs yet provides a quality of care no better than far cheaper systems in other countries. [. . . T]here’s something terribly wrong with the whole notion of patients as “consumers” and health care as simply a financial transaction.

Health insurance is inextricably intertwined with the delivery of health care. If markets do not work for health care, they will not work for health insurance either. Controlling health care costs through health insurance exchanges will not work. This is the fatal flaw of the reforms in the Obama health bill.

Speaking for me only

NYTimes:

Security forces in Syria fired tear gas and live ammunition Friday to disperse crowds of demonstrators who took to the streets of Damascus and other cities after the noon prayers that have been a focus of uprisings across the Arab world, according to protesters, witnesses and accounts posted on social networking sites.

The authorities had deployed police officers, soldiers and military vehicles in two of the country’s three largest cities ahead of a call for nationwide protests testing the popular reception of reforms decreed by President Bashar al-Assad as well as the momentum that organizers have sought to bring to the five-week uprising.

The main problem with "humanitarian" interventions in foreign civil wars is that they do not work unbless you accept that you are deciding to go to war, I think Libya is proving that point. OF course even if you accept you are going to war, then you can have an Iraq Debacle on your hands.

Speaking for me only

Kevin Drum writes:

The financial crisis of 2008 was a stupendous event, and it's frankly stunning to me how few people seem to have responded to it in any substantive way. Occasional throat clearing aside, it's been business as usual for a huge chunk of the political, business, and pundit class, especially on the right.

I just don't get that. The Great Collapse was a big enough, and unexpected enough, event that it should have changed your mind at least a little bit about something. If it didn't, you either have godlike powers of prognostication or else you've simply decided not to let real world events ever affect your worldview. I'm willing to put money on the latter.

What always amazes me about progressive bloggers writng things like this is how little they connect President Obama and Treasury Secretary Geithner to this. I have 4 letters for Kevin - H-A-M-P. Obama and Geithner claim it was a success. The latest NYTimes poll says that "Americans are more pessimistic about the nation’s economic outlook and overall direction than they have been at any time since President Obama’s first two months in office." Geithner tells Obama "all is well." It isn't.

Speaking for me only

Ballots have gone out for the Denver Mayoral election. Today, at the 40th annual NORML 2011 conference in Denver. Montel Williams moderated a debate panel among several of the candidates: James Mejia, Jeff Peckham, Doug Linkart, Thomas Wolf, Theresa Spawn and Chris Roemer.

Factoids: In Denver. there are 270 medical marijuana centers, 470 grow facilities and 170 infused product manufacturers. There are between 14,000 and 20,000 in Denver who have medical marijuana cards. It provides 4,000 jobs in Denver.

Candidate Chris Roemer got justly booed when he referred to marijuana as "addictive." It was during the q and a session at 55:00 into the video. [More...]

Another busy day at work for me. Here's an open thread, all topics welcome.

The Short Fingered Vulgarian seems to be overplaying his buffoonish hand. The latest - Jerry Seinfeld does not want to be seen standing next to him:

Comedian Jerry Seinfeld canceled an appearance at one of Donald Trump’s charity events, saying that he is disturbed by Trump’s rhetoric about President Obama. Seinfeld will however still make a monetary contribution to the charity, St. Jude’s Children’s Research Hospital.

Trump, in typical fashion, crudely lashes back:

We don't care that you broke your commitment," [Trump] wrote, [. . .] "What I do feel badly about is that I agreed to do, and did, your failed show, 'The Marriage Ref,' even though I thought it was absolutely terrible . . .

Trump seems on the verge of a Torpedo of Truth tour.

Speaking for me only

Nate Silver writes a nice article on the online poker issue. As a sports investor, two parts were particularly interesting to me:

Some of the potential replacements for Full Tilt Poker and Poker Stars, such as Bodog.com, flout the law much more flagrantly by offering sports betting.

Many states have taken the ludicrous position that poker is not a game of chance, but sports betting is only a game of chancre. Ridiculous. The other part that is interesting to me is this:

The Oklahoma Senate yesterday passed a bill increasing the maximum penalty for converting marijuana to hashish to life in prison. A spokesman for the Oklahoma Bureau of Narcotics and Dangerous Drugs said "the goal of the bill is to "send a message" that illegal drugs won't be tolerated in Oklahoma." The bill previously passed the OK House, then went to the Senate where a non-pertinent amendment was made. It now goes back to the House for enrollment.

Conviction of a first offense of cooking hashish would result in a prison sentence from two years to life in prison. Sentences would be doubled under a second offense, and those convicted would not be eligible for a suspended sentence or probation.

The bill passed the Senate by a vote of 44 to 2. The earlier version, substantially identical, passed the House by a vote of 75 to 18.

NYTimes editorial:

[NJ Governor] Chris Christie canceled [a Hudson River tunnel project] last year, costing his state $3 billion in federal funds. After making that terrible mistake, Mr. Christie now says he wants $570 million in funds to replace another choke point for the Acela — the 100-year-old Portal Bridge across the Hackensack River. He is even willing to put up $150 million of state money, since the bridge is also used by New Jersey commuter trains. In his letter asking for federal funds, he lamented that the bridge, which swings open for river traffic, is “beyond its useful life” and delays trains. That’s rich coming from the man who canceled a project that was vital to ending train delays in the future.

There are many requests, even one from Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin, a Republican who earlier rejected $810 million of these funds. Now he wants $150 million for a modest rail project between Milwaukee and Chicago.

Is the Tea Party ok with this?

This is pretty disconcerting: Since June, 2010, your iPhone has been keeping track of everywhere you've been and storing it on your phone. Why? No one knows.

The data isn't transmitted, but stored in a program. So theoretically, without a court order, only Apple and someone in possession of your phone can access it.

This makes it even more important for courts to rule that police cannot access your cell phone data without a warrant. If you're arrested and police take your phone when you're booked, they have no business looking at your recent calls and texts, let alone accessing the stored file to find every place you've been and when.

While courts disagree on whether you have a reasonable expectation of privacy in your vehicle, surely they would agree, as did the Colorado Supreme Court, that a phone is different. Or would they? Who knows anymore -- which is why Apple needs to discontinue this. [More...]