Ezra Klein presents the White House talking point that the defense spending triggered spending cuts are a real stick in the mini-Catfood Commission bargaining:

What it includes instead are massive cuts to the defense budget. If Congress doesn’t pass a second round of deficit reduction, the trigger cuts $1.2 trillion over 10 years. Fully half of that comes from defense spending. And note that I didn’t say “security spending.” The Pentagon takes the full hit if the trigger goes off. [. . .] Whether you think the trigger will work depends on whether you think the GOP would permit that level of cuts to defense.

Ezra rightly dismisses the WH spin that revenue increases are in fact on the table. They aren't. (Ezra makes the more plausible case that the Bush tax cuts expiring is the real revenue trigger.) That said, cutting defense spending via an automatic trigger is meaningless when you consider the Congress can reverse those automatic cuts through separate legislation. Which they almost certainly would. Indeed, they could easily use President Obama's own words:

White House sez:

BIPARTISAN DEBT DEAL: A WIN FOR THE ECONOMY AND BUDGET DISCIPLINE The debt deal announced today is a victory for bipartisan compromise, for the economy and for the American people.

Incredible. Smells like something allright.

I'm tuning out the budget crisis for the remainder of the evening. On to Breaking Bad, Big Brother and the Next Food Network Challenge.

For those of you following other events in the world, and believe it or not, there are some, here's an open thread, all topics welcome.

It's a done deal with Congressional leadership, says Obama.

The "bipartisan" deal will be unveiled tomorrow, in all it's glory (not.) You can still make your voice heard. Harry Reid says:

"To pass this settlement, we'll need the support of Democrats and Republicans in both the House and Senate. There is no way either party, in either chamber, can do this alone."

What did Boehner tell Republicans tonight?

“There is nothing in this framework that violates our principles," Boehner told House Republicans. "It’s all spending cuts."

Here's the slideshow of Boehner's presentation.

What did Obama say?

Despite what some in my own party have argued, I believe that we have to make some modest adjustments to programs like Medicare, to make sure they are still around for future generations."

You can watch Obama's statement here. The full text of his comments are here. [More...]

Nancy Pelosi says the Dems are withholding judgment and may or may not support the deal.

From the Progressive Change Campaign Committee (via the WSJ):

"Seeing a Democratic president take taxing the rich off the table and instead push a deal that will lead to Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid benefit cuts is like entering a bizarre parallel universe--one with horrific consequences for middle-class families.

Via the National Journal: Boehner is holding out for less defense cuts, and Dems are claiming they want to protect Medicare and Social Security: [More...]

It appears that we are winding our way to inevitable defeat in the Debt Ceiling Debacle. The loss was guaranteed in December, and the President and Democrats in Congress basically have no choice but to capitulate. Not raising the debt ceiling would be catastrophic.

The hope was that immediate spending cuts would be minimized. There is no reporting on that crucial aspect of the deal nor on who is expected to vote for the debt ceiling deal (is it going to pass with GOP support or Dem support?) More . . .

Reid says he has a deal:

Senator Harry Reid, the majority leader, has tentatively signed off on the budget deal being negotiated with top Republicans by the White House, moving Congress closer to taking up a measure that could pass both the House and Senate with bipartisan support and be signed by President Obama, averting a fiscal calamity.

Not clear where the votes come from in the House. Especially when you consider:

The negotiators appeared to be having a hard time defining what kind of cuts would occur at the end of the year if Congress failed to act on the committee’s recommendations.

If they have not figured that out, how do they have a "deal?"

Via daily kos, Rep. Raul Grijalva says:

This deal trades peoples’ livelihoods for the votes of a few unappeasable right-wing radicals, and I will not support it. Progressives have been organizing for months to oppose any scheme that cuts Medicare, Medicaid or Social Security, and it now seems clear that even these bedrock pillars of the American success story are on the chopping block. Even if this deal were not as bad as it is, this would be enough for me to fight against its passage.

"You gets no bread with your one meatball."

This song has been around at least since the depression. Bing Crosby, the Andrews Sisters and Josh White sang it during WWII. I really like the versions by Baby Jane Dexter and Ann Rabson, but I couldn't find videos of them. Here's the lyrics: [More...]

While there are conflicting reports about the outlines of the debt ceiling deal being negotiated, I thought the most important factor was not reported on - who is expected to vote for this deal. Is House Speaker John Boehner cutting a deal counting on heavy Dem support and limited GOP support? Or is he applying a "majority of the majority" rule? I assume thew Senate is peeling off enough GOP votes for cloture but it will be an all Dem voting affair for passage.

If this is a "majority of the majority" deal, then expect the worst. If not, expect a little better. But it is all terrible.

Sen. Harry Reid has decided there's no more jams to kick out tonight for the Senate. The 1:00 am vote has been postponed until 1:00 pm Sunday to give everyone more time to make bad decisions.

Negotiators told National Journal that progress was made on the toughest remaining issue -- a so-called trigger to ensure that spending cuts of up to $2.4 trillion would, in fact, be instituted by a special committee the debt-ceiling bills in Congress would establish.

Here are the details on the 12 member Joint Commission proposal (Section 301 of H.R.2693.) The Commission must finish its report with spending cut recommendations by Nov. 23. They will be voted on by Dec. 23. No amendments will be allowed. Also, no motions to postpone or move on to other business, no motions for points of order.

Translation: Reid to Republicans:[More...]

President Obama joined the negotiations this afternoon. Now we can get ready for the deal we all knew was coming. Prediction: The gang of 12 that presides over the second round of cuts which will include cuts to Medicare and Social Security, and probably raising the Medicare eligibility age, will be filibuster-proof and for all intents and purposes, veto-proof given the Republican-dominated House.

In other words, the Democrats are about to sell us out, as we've known for the last two weeks they would.

I could care less about the debt ceiling. I care about the cuts coming less than a year from now that no one will be able to stop. Obama is opening the candy store and letting Republicans eat all they want.