I liked this post by Kevin Drum on persuasion:

My own experience, which I think is fairly generalizable, is that within the course of a single conversation hardly anybody ever changes their mind — including me. Arguing is a dominance game, and in a face-to-face confrontation over anything of significance (virtual or otherwise) we hairless apes will go to considerable lengths to avoid conceding dominance. So if we find ourselves on the losing end of a confrontation, we end up simply switching to new arguments, trying to redefine the terms of debate, cherry picking our evidence a little differently, burrowing down into ever more trivial subarguments, or reverting to mockery and then walking away. In other words, pretty much anything other than actually conceding that someone else is right and that our worldview might need to be updated.

That's lawyering. Kevin extrapolates to discussing politics - "arguments will start to sink in maybe a day or a week later when the emotional charge has worn off. You'll probably never know that you've successfully persuaded your adversary, since it's a gradual change that happens offstage and is rarely acknowledged (dominance games again), but it happens. [. . .] Thus politics." I disagree with that - that's political punditry. In politics, a large swath of the electorate has no commitment to a particular belief - if they do have a commitment, it is to jersey color. If there is, it is jersey color commitment. Generally, folks will agree with whoever does best for them- the old "are you better off now" question. Most people don't think about policy, and process even less, than pundits think.

Open Thread.

The New York Times reports the lawyer for the accuser in the Dominique Strauss-Kahn case got a letter inviting his client to a meeting at the DA's office Monday, one day before the DA will announce in court whether he is dropping charges against DSK.

Kenneth Thompson, the lawyer, predicts charges will be dropped. Why? From the terse tone of the letter, and because:

“If they were not going to dismiss the charges,” Mr. Thompson added on Saturday, “there would be no need to meet with her. They would just go to court the next day to say, ‘We’re going to proceed with the case.’ ”

Then there's this statement in the letter: [More...]

I just got back from the Farmers Market. Not too many things are worth getting up early on a Saturday, but the produce at the market is so far superior, I didn't mind at all.

Why is Kim Kardashian's wedding getting so much coverage? Does the media think she's the American equivalent of Princess Kate? I certainly don't and could care less.

Manhattan DA Cy Vance is expected to announce Tuesday whether he'll dismiss charges against Dominique Strauss-Kahn. The latest: The DA is asking the accuser's lawyer for documents regarding settlement dicussions with Strauss-Kahn's lawyers in June. There are reports he offered to have the accuser stop cooperating with authorities if a settlement was reached. The private settlement discussions, held in mid-June, were reported by the New York Times on July 27. [More...]

The Government has filed its brief in support of a retrial of baseball giant Roger Clemens (available here.) They say their "inadvertent mistake" of failing to redact their trial exhibit of Congressman Cumming's testimony restating Laura Pettitte's statement about her husband's comments to her about a conversation with Clemens was not done for the purpose of goading the defense to request a mistrial.

They also claim they thought the trial was going well. As support, they include a blog post and a news article. I wonder if either author was in the courtroom for the trial.

Not explained: Why the prosecutor didn't stop the playing of the tape the minute he realized Laura Pettitte's statement was on it. All the Government says is, well, the defense didn't either. Considering the judge had just ruled days before Laura Pettitte's statements were inadmissible, the prosecutor should have stopped it immediately, knowing he was introducing banned material.

Also not addressed: The defense claim that they had repeatedly asked for the revised tape exhibits and the Government kept putting it off. [More...]

Shane Bauer and Josh Fattal, along with companion Sarah Shourd, were hiking in Northern Iraq in 2009. They came across a dirt road near a waterfall and unknowingly crossed the Iran border. Bauer and Fattal have been imprisoned in Iran ever since, and today were sentenced to 8 years in prison for unlawful entry into Iran and spying for the U.S.

They have 20 days to appeal. Shourd was granted bond and returned to the U.S. Her case is still open.

Requests through the Swiss embassy in Tehran to free the men has fallen on deaf ears so far.

The West Memphis 3, Damien Echols, Jessie Misskelley and Jason Baldwin, have been freed from prison after 18 years. They agreed to plead guilty via Alford pleas, under which they acknowledge the state has sufficient evidence to prove their guilt beyond a reasonable doubt, but they do not admit they committed the crimes and can maintain their innocence. Why the Alford pleas? So they can't sue the state for their wrongful conviction and confinement.

The hearings were closed to the media and public. The District Attorney is giving a press conference now, and says the three are being processed for release and will walk out as free men today.

From the press conference: The DA says: Moments ago, all three entered guilty pleas to murder. The deal was proposed by the defense. The D.A. consulted with the families but did not give the families veto power. [More...]

Travel day for me.

Another exciting day at the track in lower Manhattan expected.

Open Thread.

A surprise hearing has been scheduled tomorrow for the West Memphis 3 , Damien Echols, Jessie Misskelley and Jason Baldwin. A gag order is in place, but WREG reports that two of them, including Damien Echols who was sentenced to death, will be released. Reports are that a plea deal has been arrived at under which all three would plead guilty to lesser charges and two would be released. Some reports say all three would be released immediately. The reports emanate from the families of the murdered youths, who were told about the deal but asked not to discuss it until tomorrow. The three have already been moved from their respective prisons for tomorrow's hearing in Jonesboro:

The Arkansas Department of Corrections says all three have left their prisons and are now in the custody of the Craighead County Sheriff's Office, taking all their belongings with them.

The Court released this statement: [More...]

President Obama today issued an order authorizing undocumented residents to obtain work permits and avoid removal (deportation.)

The Obama administration said Thursday it will allow many illegal immigrants facing deportation the chance to stay in this country and apply for a work permit, while focusing on removing from the U.S. convicted criminals and those who might be a national security or public safety threat.

That will mean a case-by-case review of approximately 300,000 illegal immigrants facing possible deportation in federal immigration courts, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said in announcing the policy change.

[More...]

Via Digby, here comes the Super Catfood Commission Dem team's embrace of Simpson-Bowles:

Together We Can Beat the Deficit

Over the past few months, in debating the debt ceiling and deficit reduction, that light of common cause has appeared to flicker at times in our nation's capital. As appointees to the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction—12 members of Congress charged with finding $1.5 trillion in deficit reduction over the next decade—we hope to remedy that.

How will they remedy that you ask? Take a guess:

I found the impotence "defense" of President Obama strange before, it seems incomprehensible to me now that we need to make an argument for why he should be reelected. I'm not going to rehash my arguments on the subject. Suffice it to say that in his discussion with Scott LeMieux, I think Glenn Greenwald has the better of the argument.

Speaking for me only.

My fourth and final day of court for the week. I'm way far behind at blogging. Things should ease up by next week.

I'm looking forward to seeing what the Manhattan DA's office decides next week on whether to dismiss or keep going with the Dominique Strauss Kahn case.

More bad news for Phil Spector, who at age 71 is serving a 19 year sentence. The California Supreme Court declined to hear his case yesterday, which means he's got one avenue left: a habeas petition in federal court.

This is an open thread, all topics welcome.