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Open Thread.

Open Thread.

Political scientist John Sides argues:

The term “realignment” gets thrown around casually, sometimes suggesting nothing more than “something big is happening.” But the term has a more precise meaning—indeed, it must have a precise meaning in order for it to mean anything. A realignment is predicated on three things. First, there has to be a dramatic and permanent shift in the party coalitions. Second, the shift in coalitions needs to usher in an extended period of party control. Third, the shift in control needs to bring about a notable shift in policy. One can see how the “New Deal coalition” approximates this definition, since it ushered in decades of one-party dominance in Congress, particularly in the House, and brought about not only the New Deal but arguably the Great Society. No such thing has happened since Obama was elected in 2008. It is true that the demography of the country is changing slowly, and groups that have tended to vote Democratic are becoming more numerous. So the Democratic party coalition has the potential for continuing growth. Will that growth translate into enduring power and policy change? It certainly didn’t in 2010. Yes, the 2010 electorate was not the 2012 electorate. But that’s the point: a realignment doesn’t take midterm elections off.

Under Sides' rubric, Ronald Reagan was not a transformative President. After all, in 1982, Reagan's Republican Party lost 27 House seats and control of the Senate. Indeed, Sides' argument sounds eerily similar to David Broder's assessment of Reagan after the 1982 midterms (via Ezra Klein):

Israel has called up 75,000 reservists and struck Hamas Government buildings. Hamas has claimed credit for firing rockets at Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.

The Israeli military said some 150 rockets fired from Gaza had hit Israel since Friday and at least 83 more were intercepted by its Iron Dome anti-missile system.

Gaza is a small place with a lot of people, and there have been at least 38 civilian casualties, some of them children. Israel says it is acting in self-defense, and the rockets Hamas is firing at them come from Gaza.

This morning, Hamas fired 20 rockets at Israel. Israel says Operation Pilar Defense will continue. [more...]

The picks ( all 2 units unless otherwise indicated):

Oregon -20 over Stanford (3 units), Iowa State -5 over Kansas, Vanderbilt -3 over Tennessee, Mississippi +18½ over LSU, Oklahoma -11 over West Virginia, San Jose State +3 1/2 over BYU, Missouri -5 over Syracuse, Kansas State -13 over Baylor (4 units), UCLA +4 over USC (5 units), Army -3 over Temple, Mississippi State -6 over Arkansas, Oklahoma State -10 over Texas Tech, South Florida +7 over Miami (Florida), Clemson -17 over North Carolina State, Boise State -28 over Colorado State, Northwestern +7 over Michigan State, Maryland +31 over Florida State, Cincinnati -6 over Rutgers, Washington -21 over Colorado, Wisconsin -2 over Ohio State, Georgia Tech -14 over Duke, Tulsa -1 over Central Florida, Iowa +18 over Michigan, Notre Dame -24 over Wake Forest.

Open Thread.

It's official. Hostess will stop making Twinkies. We were warned. Predictably, grocery stores today are reporting a run on Twinkies. I bought a box when the first alert came out in January, and ate them all within two days. Not this time.

Adis Medunjanin was sentenced to life in prison for his role in the thwarted New York Subway attacks. Najibullah Zazi, who testified against him as part of a plea deal, will be sentenced in December.

Gen. David Petraeus testified before a closed session of Congress today. Reports vary on what he said about terrorism. The Washington Post makes no reference to him saying al Qaida was directly involved, only that at some point the CIA came to believe "associates of al-Qaeda" were involved. Reuters reports the same. CNN, on the other hand, goes with a different version by Rep. Peter King, burying that it is only King's version until the second paragraph. [More...]

The most excellent adventures of the Real Housewives of Tampa continue. Today's installment: Jill and Natalie's White House excursions. We even get a new unnamed player: the White House lawyer who invited them.

More interesting: Mayor of Tampa Bob Buckhorn has released his e-mails with Jill Kelley. The latest is Nov. 14, in which she refers to Paula Broadwell as a stalker and a criminal. What a name-dropper. In one, she calls Gen. Petraeus "Dave" . In another she knows that Gen. Allen will be calling her at 1:00 pm. that day. You can read them here.

My summary is below: [More...]

Colorado Rep. Diana DeGette today followed through with her promise to introduce federal legislation to respect the will of the voters on Amendment 64. She has introduced the "Respect States' and Citizens' Rights Act of 2012."

The bill would amend 21 USC 903 of the Controlled Substance Act by adding a provision:

In the case of any State law that pertains to marijuana, no provision of this title shall be construed as indicating an intent on the part of the Congress to occupy the field in which that provision operates, including criminal penalties, to the exclusion of State law on the same subject matter, nor shall any provision of this title be construed as preempting any such State law.

Currently, section 903 reads:[More...]

A criminal probe of Fedex and UPS has been ongoing over shipments of drugs purchased illegally from online pharmacies. The investigation is in the Northern District of California (San Francisco.) UPS appears to be cooperating while Fedex is not. Both companies revealed the probe in their latest quarterly registration statements. UPS said:

We have received requests for information from the DOJ in the Northern District of California in connection with a criminal investigation relating to the transportation of packages for online pharmacies that may have shipped pharmaceuticals in violation of federal law," the company stated. UPS said it was cooperating with the investigation and is "exploring the possibility of resolving this matter."

Fedex says: ""Settlement is not an option when there is no illegal activity." [More...]

A day after Boulder DA Stan Garnett announced his office will drop pending marijuana cases involving adult possession of less than an ounce of marijuana, Denver District Attorney Mitch Morrissey announced his office will do the same.

There are about 70 cases pending in Denver that would fall under the amendment, Denver district attorney spokeswoman Lynn Kimbrough said Thursday. As those cases go through the court system, they will be reviewed for possible dismissal. This won't apply to cases where there is another charge or when the person is under age 21, she said. People who think their case may be dismissed still must appear at their court date, Kimbrough said.

The North Metro Drug Task Force remains opposed. Its latest argument: [More...]

Must-watch TV tonight: HBO premieres Crossfire Hurricane, the documentary about the Rolling Stones from 1962 to 1982.

This is an open thread, all topics welcome.

Bump and Update 11/15/12 : The DA has dropped criminal charges against John Bon Jovi's daughter, Stephanie Bongiovi, and another student because of New York's Good Samaritan law.

Oneida County District Attorney Scott McNamara said he was dismissing the charges against both students. Under state law, someone having a drug overdose or seeking help for an overdose victim can't be prosecuted for having a small amount of heroin or any amount of marijuana.

Original Post 11/14/12:

Sending good thoughts to the Bon Jovi family and daughter Stephanie Bongiovi, 19, who was charged with heroin possession after being found unresponsive in her dorm room at Hamilton College in New York Wednesday. Another student was also charged.

Ms. Bongiovi is alive because someone called for help. If people fear arrest, they are less likely to call 911. That's why New York and several other states have enacted a Good Samaritan law. Arrest and charges send the wrong message in these circumstances. [More...]