by TChris

Up against (and a bit beyond) another extended deadline, the Iraqi National Assembly is unlikely to vote on a draft constitution. The newly improvised plan: skip the vote and send the draft to the people in a referendum.

The decision by the Shiite leadership to bypass the Sunni Arabs provoked threats from the Sunnis that they would call on their people to reject the constitution when it goes before the voters in October.

This isn't the plan the Bush administration has been hawking.

Barring some last-minute deal, the decision by the Shiites to move ahead without the Sunni Arabs would mark a huge blow to efforts by the Bush administration to bring the leaders of the Sunni community into the negotiations over the Iraqi constitution.

What happened to the "do-over" plan?

Via Sentencing Law and Policy, I see that USA Today has a new article on sex offender statistics that dispels some of the myths created by recent high-profile cases. Among them:

Sex crimes against children have dropped dramatically in the last decade. An online national sex-offender registry was launched in July. And recent research shows doctors can better predict which offenders may strike again....

Dramatic drop in cases. Government figures show the rate of sexual assaults against adolescents ages 12 to 17 plunged 79% from 1993 through 2003, and the number of substantiated sex-abuse cases involving kids of all ages fell 39% in the same time period. [One expert], who has analyzed the data, sees multiple reasons for the decline: Greater incarceration of offenders, more therapy and use of psychiatric drugs, economic improvement in the 1990s and heightened public concern. ...

Treatment helps. Group therapy dropped the recidivism rate from 17% to 10%, according to a 2002 study that [anther expert] co-wrote. He studied 9,454 sex offenders in 43 states.

I wrote about the release of Colorado's first "sexually violent predator" earlier today over at 5280. He was a 20 year old convicted of raping a 17 year old inebriated female he met at a party. He did six years in prison for the crime. The police chief of Fort Collins held a town hall meeting in a packed church to warn the community about the offender's release. What point does this ostracism make?

Here are some more myths and facts about sex offenders from the Department of Justice Center for Sex Offender Management.

European reporters have submitted a petition calling for the release of jailed New York Times reporter Judith Miller.

Twenty-seven prominent Europeans including Spanish filmmaker Pedro Almodovar, German Nobel literature laureate Gunter Grass, French philosopher Bernard-Henri Levy and British TV journalist Kate Adie have responded to an appeal from Reporters Without Borders and signed a petition urging the US courts to release New York Times reporter Judith Miller, who will have been in prison for 50 days tomorrow.

The L.A. Times today has a nine page analysis of the leak of the identity of CIA operative Valerie Plame. If you need a picture chart, head over to Think Progress, which has a handy compilation of 21 Administration officials involved in the probe.

As to the outcome of the investigation, the Times merely concludes:

Individuals close to the case say that Fitzgerald is likely to wrap up his inquiry this fall.

by TChris

The Supreme Court has struggled to develop a consistent Commerce Clause jurisprudence, balancing the federal legislature’s desire to enact sweeping regulation against the constitutional limits on federal power. Both the right and the left are dissatisfied with some of the Court’s Commerce Clause decisions, and Congress is irritated whenever the Court strikes down the legislation it enacts (as Arlen Specter recently made clear).

Speaking to the ABA, Justice Stevens admitted that he wasn’t happy with his vote to uphold federal regulation of pot growers who cultivate the plant for intrastate distribution as permitted by California's medical marijuana law. The Raich decision upheld the federal prohibition against a Commerce Clause challenge.

Justice Stevens said he also regretted having to rule in favor of the federal government's ability to enforce its narcotics laws and thus trump California's medical marijuana initiative. "I have no hesitation in telling you that I agree with the policy choice made by the millions of California voters," he said. But given the broader stakes for the power of Congress to regulate commerce, he added, "our duty to uphold the application of the federal statute was pellucidly clear."

The Wall St. Journal (free article) reports that Republicans are unlikely to oppose Bush over the War in Iraq:

National security remains a potent unifying issue for Mr. Bush's political coalition, he retains overwhelming personal popularity among Republicans, and the party's leading candidate to succeed him strongly backs the nation's continued presence in Iraq.

"We can't afford to lose," says Sen. John McCain of Arizona, a maverick on other issues, but a Bush ally on Iraq. While "there's nervousness" among Republicans, he says "I do not see any significant erosion or inclination to jump ship."

So, John McCain is the leading candidate to replace Bush? We're in deep trouble. Suburban Guerilla points out this Arizona Star interview with McCain in which he supported teaching intelligent design:

On Tuesday, though, he sided with the president on two issues that have made headlines recently: teaching intelligent design in schools and Cindy Sheehan, the grieving mother who has come to personify the anti-war movement. McCain told the Star that, like Bush, he believes "all points of view" should be available to students studying the origins of mankind.

Former CIA Analyst Larry Johnson writes over at David Corn's site:

Staying the course and enduring further casualties while the insurgency grows stronger is an insane policy. If we persist on that front we will end up strengthening the hand of Islamic extremists and their role within the Iraqi insurgency.

Our choice is simple--either we invest in the military resources and personnel required to defeat the Sunni insurgents and allow the Shia and Kurds to consolidate power or we withdraw and let the Shia, Sunni, and Kurds find their own solution. We cannot ask our soldiers and Marines to give their lives and sacrifice their bodies for a new Islamic state.

by TChris

The Department of Health and Human Services gave The Silver Ring Thing more than a million dollars over two years to promote its abstinence program. It may have been with a wink and a nudge that HHS obtained assurances that the faith-based program would not “engage in inherently religious activities, such as worship, religious instruction, or proselytization." Three months after the ACLU filed suit, HHS suspended funding of the program, recognizing that The Silver Thing used federal funds to advance religious indoctrination.

Federal funding of the organization, which is based in suburban Pittsburgh, will be halted until the government is confident that the program is obeying department rules, said the letter from Harry Wilson, associate commissioner of the Family and Youth Services Bureau. The Silver Ring Thing has until Sept. 6 to submit a plan showing that it separates its abstinence message from its encouragement of Christian values.

Lorraine Kenny, the public education coordinator for the ACLU's Reproductive Freedom Project, argues that The Silver Ring Thing used its federal funding “to basically put on a religious road show across the country.” She plans to ask the court to stay further proceedings in the lawsuit until The Silver Ring Thing produces its plan to comply with the law.

Gary Hart has an op-ed in today's Washington Post about the war in Iraq. It's wrong. It was a mistake. We are "light-years" from the original purported mission. It's a "hornet's nest." He asks, who will say "no more?"

The op-ed also takes a swipe at the complicit Democrats. This is not the way to resurrect the party, Hart argues.

But what will history say about an opposition party that stands silent while all this goes on? My generation of Democrats jumped on the hot stove of Vietnam and now, with its members in positions of responsibility, it is afraid of jumping on any political stove. In their leaders, the American people look for strength, determination and self-confidence, but they also look for courage, wisdom, judgment and, in times of moral crisis, the willingness to say: "I was wrong."

To stay silent during such a crisis, and particularly to harbor the thought that the administration's misfortune is the Democrats' fortune, is cowardly. In 2008 I want a leader who is willing now to say: "I made a mistake, and for my mistake I am going to Iraq and accompanying the next planeload of flag-draped coffins back to Dover Air Force Base. And I am going to ask forgiveness for my mistake from every parent who will talk to me."

It's a very good read.

Update: Kevin Drum offers similar thoughts about who will be first among the Democrats in this op-ed in today's LA Times.

Equality Now reports that the rights of women in Iraq are in great danger in light of the current draft of the constitution of Iraq.

They are asking people to contact the following individuals immediately, as the next 24 to 48 hours are critical. All of them are playing or can play strong advisory roles in the drafting of the new constitution. Ask them to use all of their influence to support Iraqi women’s call for a constitution that protects their equality and human rights.

• President Jalal Talabani
  Baghdad, Iraq
  E-mail: presidentialprotocol.iraq@gmail.com
  Address letters to: “Dear President Talabani,”
  

by TChris

Seven African American police officers who tested positive for cocaine use are suing the Boston Police Department. They all say they didn't ingest cocaine, although they may have been contaminated with it during the course of their work. They contend that tests of their hair are unreliable and racially biased.

Their civil rights lawsuit is one of many legal challenges against hair drug tests, which are used by companies and police departments nationwide. Employers like the test because it can detect drugs up to three months after use; urine tests go back only a few days and can be easily altered.

But studies have found dark-haired people are more likely to test positive for drugs because they have higher levels of melanin, which allows drug compounds to bind more easily to their hair.

A few days after the positive tests, six of the seven officers had negative hair tests. Yet departmental policy requires officers with a positive test to enter into a rehabilitation agreement during a 45 day suspension or be fired. The six officers refused. They hope the lawsuit will lead to their reinstatement.

The Wall St. Journal (free article) has the results of a new Harris Poll. Bush is sinking faster than the Titanic.

President Bush's job approval ratings are at their lowest point of his presidency as only 40% of U.S. adults have a favorable opinion of his job performance and 58% have a negative opinion, according to a Harris Interactive poll.

This is a decline from two months ago, when the president's ratings were 45% positive and 55% negative. The war in Iraq and the economy climbed to the top of a list of issues Americans say are most important for the U.S. to address. Social Security declined sharply.

Cheney and Rumsfeld dropped as well.

Vice President Dick Cheney's approval ratings slipped to 35% from 38% in June, while Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld's approval ratings dropped to 40% from 42%.