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Iowa Predictions

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 04:51:50 PM EST
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Jeralyn is still traveling the plains so I figure I'll start an Iowa predictions thread.

Here's mine. I'll accept the Iowa Gold Standard poll's order of finish.

Obama by 3 over Hillary 3 ahead of Edwards.

Biden 4th.
Richardson 5th.
Dodd 6th.
Gravel and Kucinich last.

The spin? A HUGE win for Obama and he rolls on to the nomination.

Your turn.

Update (Jeralyn): From the plains (and they look like plains to me) -- I think Hillary comes in first and Edwards second.

More . . .

Update [2008-1-2 18:14:8 by Big Tent Democrat]: I forgot that those Republicans not crossing over to vote for Obama will also be caucusing tomorrow.

Here I defy the Gold Standard poll and predict Romney winning easily, Huckabee second, and NOT McCain third, infuriating the Media, thus they will ignore it and no positive spin for Romney. But he does not need it as he sweeps NH, Michigan and the rest of the primaries losing NONE and capturing the nomination, then he will be CRUSHED by Obama, 54-46. Dems pick up 3 house seats and 4 Senate seats There, you do not have to watch anything political this year now.

< Iowa: Off to Cedar Rapids and Coralville | Twas the Night Before Caucus (and All Through the State) >

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    Iowa Predictions | 40 comments (40 topical)

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    She's in Kansas? (5.00 / 1) (#2)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 05:04:46 PM EST
    "Jeralyn is still traveling the plains"

    'cause there ain't no plains in Iowa.

    Whatever (5.00 / 1) (#3)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 05:05:59 PM EST
    You ever see the New Yorker cartoon?

    That's how I feel about Iowa, Kansas etc.

    [ Parent ]

    A perfect (5.00 / 1) (#5)
    by Maryb2004 on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 05:12:14 PM EST
    East Coast Elite statement.

    [ Parent ]
    You are form one of those M states right? (5.00 / 1) (#6)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 05:17:53 PM EST
    Missisissippi? Montana? Michigan? Heh.

    Don't exist for me.

    [ Parent ]

    Typical ... (none / 0) (#9)
    by Maryb2004 on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 05:36:44 PM EST
    But I can assure you that I am not one of the five people who live in Montana.

    [ Parent ]
    Oh really? (5.00 / 2) (#13)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 05:59:35 PM EST
    Show me.

    [ Parent ]
    Ah... (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 07:29:22 PM EST
    Coastal liberal elitism or are you still pouting about that 20 point whooping that Iowa gave your precious Gators in the '04 Outback Bowl?  

    I'll bet you were caring about Michigan last night, huh?  Beat by yet other Big 10 team...

    Jeralyn--perhaps you should get out in the Eastern part of our state so you would recognize plains when you see them.  There's more to Colorado than Washington Park, Telluride and Aspen.

    Let's see, the sun was shining, its was above zero, so the pig saw its shadow.  I predict the winners will be...

    1. Hotels, car rental agencies and restuarants all across Iowa;
    2. The Des Moines Register; and
    3. People who just have to whine about the caucus.


    [ Parent ]
    Go Blue. (none / 0) (#16)
    by oculus on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 07:32:28 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Heh (none / 0) (#19)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 07:36:54 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Yet another Big 10 team? I don't think I'd (none / 0) (#21)
    by Teresa on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 08:02:09 PM EST
    have the guts to post that after last year MileHi. :)

    [ Parent ]
    Not a football fan I think (5.00 / 1) (#22)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 08:14:52 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    No... (none / 0) (#23)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 08:26:38 PM EST
    ...I just don't give a rat's behind about SEC/ACC football--except for Maryland.  Everyone knows they play real football in the heartland and nowhere else.  

    [ Parent ]
    TheBCS Championship game (none / 0) (#24)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 08:30:41 PM EST
    last year escaped your notice.

    [ Parent ]
    To quote... (none / 0) (#25)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 08:39:27 PM EST
    something I heard from someone somewhere today...

    Whatever.  East coast, shmeast coast.  If its east of the Mississippi, it doesn't matter.  

    I will admit to rooting for W. Virginia to beat Oklahoma, but that is a long, long story.

    [ Parent ]

    ok (5.00 / 1) (#4)
    by Maryb2004 on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 05:10:51 PM EST
    Edwards over Obama over Clinton.  

    No idea on percentages.  No idea on the lower tier candidates.

    The spin - Obama wins by coming in ahead of Clinton.  She still wins NH and the nomination.

    Given the equal weight of all 99 caucuses... (none / 0) (#1)
    by Key on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 05:04:17 PM EST
    Edwards, Clinton, Obama.

    Each caucus district gets 1 vote.  Edwards is strongest in small rural areas, where he's focused most of his time.  He'll win more of those than anyone else and will come in first.

    Even if Obama should pull off a #1 spot, I would expect NH to come out Clinton, then Obama.

    When they finally get around to my state (well after this whole thing is settled), none of these 3 will get my vote.

    Are you sure each caucus gets one vote? (none / 0) (#17)
    by oculus on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 07:33:45 PM EST
    NYT piece a couple weeks ago talked about allotting votes to each caucus based on the number of Dems. who voted in the last two Presidential elections.  

    [ Parent ]
    According to the Iowa Dem. (none / 0) (#29)
    by oculus on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 10:48:46 PM EST
    party website re 2008 caucuses, precints may have one, two, or more than two delegates/precinct.  

    [ Parent ]
    Your math is wrong (none / 0) (#27)
    by Cillalaw on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 10:11:28 PM EST
    Each precinct gets a number of delegates based upon the number of people who attended last time. So a precinct may have 1 delegate or 37 delegates to divide up. So every precinct doesn't have equal weight.

    I still think Edwards will win. He's the second choice of a lot of people.

    [ Parent ]

    More (none / 0) (#28)
    by Cillalaw on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 10:12:54 PM EST
    And there are 1784 precincts (or something like that). There are 99 counties, but each county has a number of precincts.  And that's the easy part of the math

    [ Parent ]
    Perr NYT, how many delegates (none / 0) (#30)
    by oculus on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 10:50:14 PM EST
    a precinct gets in 2008 Dem. caucuses depends on how many people voted Dem. in the past two Presidential elections.

    [ Parent ]
    If Obama wins (none / 0) (#7)
    by koshembos on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 05:24:49 PM EST
    If Obama wins due to independents and Republicans and in light of the very and too late Netroots revulsion for his Rovian tactics and ideas, is it possible that Democrats will finally revolt against this world class charlatan and Iowa will be his last win?

    explain (none / 0) (#11)
    by Jgarza on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 05:44:43 PM EST
    what about Obama is rovian?  Its boiled down to baseless insults i see.

    [ Parent ]
    Dunno about the primary (none / 0) (#8)
    by andgarden on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 05:35:11 PM EST
    but I concur with BTD's predictions about the House and the Senate.

    prediction or hope? (none / 0) (#10)
    by Jgarza on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 05:43:17 PM EST
    Update (Jeralyn): From the plains (and they look like plains to me) -- I think Hillary comes in first and Edwards second.

    Is that what she predicts will happen or hopes?

    I'm not going to predict. I'll be honest I have no idea who is going to win.

    Amber fields of corn=plains? (none / 0) (#12)
    by oculus on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 05:48:51 PM EST
    Clinton takes Iowa and N.H.;
    Obama come in second in each; and
    Edwards third.

    McCain wins Iowa and N.H.
    Not sure about the rest or the "down ticket" effect.  

    That update about the Republicans (none / 0) (#14)
    by Teresa on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 06:09:14 PM EST
    not crossing over for Obama was very funny.

    I predict Obama-Clinton-Edwards unless those who talk about the rural areas getting more weight are right. Then I'm just not as sure Obama takes it.

    I disagree with you that an Obama win in Iowa will carry him all the way. He's pretty far behind in a lot of states that vote that day and I don't think some of us care what they do in Iowa. Maybe I'm just naive.

    If the press didn't care who won Iowa, (none / 0) (#18)
    by oculus on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 07:34:55 PM EST
    no one else would either.  But, the press does care.

    [ Parent ]
    Most people I know (none / 0) (#20)
    by ontheground on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 07:59:58 PM EST
    Are going for Obama.  Me too.  I think he wins big.

    Why? (none / 0) (#26)
    by oculus on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 10:10:39 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Why what? (none / 0) (#32)
    by ontheground on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 11:28:14 PM EST
    Why are people going for Obama?  They like him
    Why do I think he wins big?  I've never seen such enthusiasm for the caucuses and a particular candidate, and I go back a ways.  He's drawing people in that I would never guess would ever care.

    [ Parent ]
    Why do you support Obama? (none / 0) (#33)
    by oculus on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 11:29:06 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    I was fairly undecided until (none / 0) (#36)
    by ontheground on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 02:27:22 AM EST
    Kucinich effectively endorsed him.  I'm a Kucinich-type of liberal and if he thinks Obama measures up, I listen.  

    I read an article in CNET that touched on privacy, freedom and corporate issues and I thought his views were very good.  

    I think he has 'IT'.  An intangible that projects as more presidential than Edwards or Hillary.  No, he is not perfect and i'm not happy about some past votes and stands, but he is the best option, IMO.  He is I think the best I have seen since Mo Udall in '76 or Bobby in '68.

    [ Parent ]

    Wow. Testy. (none / 0) (#31)
    by sarcastic unnamed one on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 11:21:44 PM EST
    The Gators really got your goat so much that you deleted my comment?

    Ah well, fwiw, one of my favorite memories is standing in the Blue Dolphin across from the stadium with a bunch of college buddies in around '87-'88, hell, maybe '89 (hard to remember these days) during the 2nd half of a Florida/Florida State game  chanting "It's great. To be. A Florida Gator. It's great. To be. ..." while making the appropriate Gator teeth hand gestures as the entire bar threw pitchers of beer at each other.

    Whatever, I still think you have 2nd place right: Edwards, Clinton, Obabama.

    Was not me (none / 0) (#34)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 11:30:56 PM EST
    Never saw it.

    [ Parent ]
    J is deleting from the hotel bar? (none / 0) (#35)
    by oculus on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 11:38:19 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    You're right. (none / 0) (#40)
    by sarcastic unnamed one on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:33:36 AM EST
    This AM I found the comment un-posted on my computer at work. I was a little distracted yesterday...

    [ Parent ]
    It sucks to be.... (none / 0) (#37)
    by kdog on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 10:34:09 AM EST
    a Florida Gator....that brings back memories of 1999 when I had a djembe drum strapped to my chest leading the Seminole chant during a quasi-riot after a FSU victory.  I ended up on top of some girl's car and dented the crap out of it...and she didn't even care.

    The only prediction I care about is Ron Paul over Rudy....looking forward to that big time!

    [ Parent ]

    Ron Paul is increasing his visibility (none / 0) (#38)
    by oculus on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 10:35:49 AM EST
    here; yesterday I noticed a Ron Paul mini-blimp balloon flying about 50 feet off the ground.  

    [ Parent ]
    Here back east as well.... (none / 0) (#39)
    by kdog on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 10:52:02 AM EST
    I drive by a huge homemade banner on the highway everyday stating "Google Ron Paul".  

    People are digging the message...no doubt.  I hope he keeps on rolling and fights to the end.  

    [ Parent ]

    Iowa Predictions | 40 comments (40 topical)

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