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The Clinton Spin: She's Gonna Win

This is an interesting development, not because I think it means Clinton is going to win, I don't, but because it is an interesting aboutface in spin tactics:

** Hillary Clinton's team has revised its turnout model. The same senior campaign source who projected a turnout of 140,000 voters is now predicting that 150,000 voters will show, and says that, according to the turnout model the campaign is employing, Clinton will finish a strong first on the strength of turnout from Democrats. Two days ago, Obama's chief strategist, David Axelrod, told me that the Obama turnout model assumed about 150-155,000 people too. Clearly, the more independents who turn out, the better for Obama. The more Democrats -- the more new Democrats -- the better for Hillary Clinton. An Edwards aide said the campaign predicts that 135-140,000 Dems will caucus.

Why spin up? My guess? They felt they were being hurt by trying to lower expectations. For the record, each campaign is projecting a record turnout, 122,000 caucused in 2004.

< ARG Iowa Poll: Clinton With Large Lead | IA Iowa Poll: Dead Heat >
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  • Display: Sort:
    She's up, she's down (none / 0) (#1)
    by Aaron on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 10:43:16 AM EST
    They don't know which way to spin, it changes every day. Tom Vilsack was explaining away the impending loss yesterday.

    Clinton Camp Pre-Spinning Possible Bad News in Iowa

    All the righties, Bill Bennett, Bob Novak are calling it for Obama.

    I'm sure there are some opinions about that, right kids :-)

    I'm confused about the numbers (none / 0) (#2)
    by Aaron on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 10:51:16 AM EST
    So this is a maximum of 155,000 Democrats predicted, while in 2006 they had 186,000 Democrats.

    How many Republicans are predicted to turn out?

    And how many Republicans have turned out in the past?

    It says 1500 Republicans turned out to apparently caucus for Democrats?

    So are there any predictions on the number of Republicans who will be caucusing for Democrats this time?

    BTD owns Zogby part 2: (none / 0) (#3)
    by GOPmurderedconscience on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:14:27 AM EST
    BTD;

    You keep proving yourself to be a prophet. You said this morning that people will be treating the latest Zogby's poll as news instead as laughing at him because he is such a fraud; and it's exactly what has been happening:

    From one of my favorite sites TPM:

    Exclusive: Hillary's Iowa Gap In Zogby Poll Worsens After Second-Choice Allocations

    http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2008/01/zogby_poll_hillarys_gap_worsens_after_secondchoice_allocations .php

    BTD you do own Zogby and even the people who take him seriously.

    PS: Sorry for the double posting. It's Hillary Clinton's fault. Too much "triangulation".

    It is a campaign (none / 0) (#4)
    by Jgarza on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 12:35:53 PM EST
    why would they argue about general turnout models, that is all theory for pollsters who have no control over who turns out. Polls don't predict superior GOTV(or i guess GOTC in Iowa)operations. You are talking about, what is in most polls still within the margin of error no matter what the turnout model. SO shouldn't the campaign be predicting that they will turn out their voters, not that exactly 150,000.00567 people are coming.  seems a bit silly for me.