By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only

The magic number. That is not a phrase you hear much in reference to the Democratic nomination. We hear about pledged delegate counts and how sacrosanct they are of course. But never is that tied to the concept of a magic number. But the magic number exists. Two are possible - one with FL/MI (2214) and one without (2025). And this Chris Bowers post truly illustrates why not revoting Florida and Michigan makes getting a legitimate nominee extremely difficult:

Add this in to the above numbers, and it comes to a grand total of Obama 1,948--1,824 Clinton, with only the 255 remaining superdelegates to go. Obama would need 74.5, or just 29.3%, of the remaining superdelegates to reach the 2,022.5 magic number. At that point, he would be able to dictate what happens in Florida and Michigan.

(Emphasis supplied.) Chris assumes the non-MI/FL magic number will be considered legitimate by all. I am confident it will not be so. A solution to Florida and Michigan must, at the very least, be provided and agreed to PRIOR to the nominee being chosen. It can not be done after the fact. You can not truly claim legitimacy unless the nominee achieves the MI/FL magic number - 2214, through an agreed upon process. After the fact will not cut it. The legitimacy of the nominee depends upon it.

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only

Via Todd Beeton, I think the Clinton camp is getting it on the popular vote issue:

Both Rob Reiner in his intro and Hillary Clinton in her remarks framed the issue as the disenfranchisement of millions of voters, which really got the crowd exercised I have to say, especially when Clinton phrased it in these terms:

I thought it was Democrats who wanted to count every vote. If we had counted every vote in 2000 Al Gore would be finishing his second term

. . . Rob Reiner hinted at what's really going on here in his introductory remarks[:]

We're Democrats, we let everyone vote. If at the end of the process, there's a candidate who has more votes...When all the dust settles and Puerto Rico has voted, you're going to see that more people voted for Hillary Clinton.

This is the smart political play AND the right thing to do for the Clinton campaign. Kudos to them.

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only

It always amazed me how well Barack Obama was able to sell his "new politics" schtick. It is not like it is actually a new schtick. Heck some pol or other uses it every cycle. Well, via Taylor Marsh, we've found a reporter that noticed that the Obama campaign has used negative tactics:

A new PA poll by Muhlenberg College and the Morning Call show Hillary ahead by 11 points. Full poll results are here.

Key findings:

1. With the Pennsylvania Presidential Primary under three weeks away, Senator Hillary Clinton maintains a double digit lead over Senator Obama in the Democratic race.

2. Democratic voters in the Keystone State were most likely to rank the economy as the key issue in terms of their vote in the Democratic Primary, with the Iraq War and health care also prominently mentioned.

3. Pennsylvania Democrats have generally favorable views of both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. However, Obama receives a larger percentage of unfavorable ratings than Clinton among likely voters in the state.

4. Keystone State Democrats are evenly divided on which of their candidates is more likely to beat John McCain in the general election.

5. Democratic voters in the Commonwealth are more likely to want Hillary Clinton to choose Barack Obama as her running mate than they are to support Obama choosing Clinton as his Vice President.

6. A majority of Democratic voters in Pennsylvania do not believe Hillary Clinton should drop out of the race if she loses the Pennsylvania Primary.

More...

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only

As a supporter of NAFTA and free trade, I hope it is clear that my call for the firing of Mark Penn is not based on objections to a free trade agreement with Colombia, but because Penn (who I believe is an incompetent political operative) can not serve both Burson Marsteller and Hillary Clinton's campaign for President. He needs to go. Immediately.

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only

It's official. TPM's M.J. Rosenberg murders irony when he writes:

Krugman is making two big mistakes. The first has to do with his influence as a columnist. By constantly attacking Obama, he is turning off the 50% of Democrats who favor Obama as our nominee. People like me can no longer read him without thinking "What's up with this guy? Has he really developed such a personal animus to our likely nominee based on his differences with him on health care? What's his agenda here?"

(Emphasis supplied.) Yes, Paul Krugman has substantive critiques of Barack Obama and he loses Obama fanboys like the ones writing a TPM. The shallow, fallacious and empty attacks on Hillary Clinton by TPM, not to mention the legion of Obama supporters from Senators on down, is sure to make for a wonderfully unified Democratic Party. Writing from the TPM glass house with its tattered reputation, Rosenberg chooses to throw stones at Paul Krugman? Yes, irony is now dead and buried. More . . .

Good news for forensic pathologist and tv pundit Cyril Wecht. After 9 days of deliberation in his federal trial on theft of public services for using the state coroner's office to conduct autopsies and private business, the jury is deadlocked. The jury's note:

"After considering all counts in a variety of ways and in reconsideration of all individual opinions according to the court instructions, we have unanimously agreed we have reached an impasse," the note read. "We agree additional deliberations would not be helpful."

The Seton Hall law school's Center for Social Justice (which does great work on behalf of the Guantanamo detainees) has filed a lawsuit against ICE challenging their immigration raids. You can read the complaint and exhibits here.

The suit, against officials of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE, on behalf of 10 plaintiffs, including two United States citizens, contends that teams of ICE agents used “deceit or, in some cases, raw force” to gain “unlawful entry.”

The lawsuit claims that agents, sometimes misrepresenting themselves as local police officers hunting for criminals, entered homes where no fugitives being sought were present and detained residents without showing any legal cause. Immigration agents have broad authority to question foreigners about their immigration status, but they may not enter a home without either a warrant or consent.

Some examples of the complained of ICE actions: [More...]

I've got jail visits today. There's lots of new posts up from last night, or you can use this thread to pick the topics. If you see our troll from yesterday, e-mail me so I can log on and delete her.

Oh, and keep it civil please.

Update: Comments now closed.

Via the Washington Post: What does $40 million buy Obama? In addition to blanketing PA with ads,

In North Carolina, one of the two vital May 6 states, the Obama campaign's office count has risen to 16, including smaller locales like Hickory, Boone and Elizabeth City. Two Obama television ads are airing around the state, at a total cost of $800,000, according to a source familiar with the campaign's media budget. Today alone, an army of organizers and volunteers conducted 22 training and and voter registration sessions, focusing in particular on African Americans, students, and independents and Republicans.

In Indiana, the other May 6 contest, the Obama campaign has so far spent over $1 million on TV and radio ads. The office tally climbed today to 17. The Obama campaign's latest gimmick: a high school-outreach program that targets students who will turn 18 by the Nov. 4 general election, making them eligible as primary voters. Indiana students who register at least 20 of their peers by April 6 will be eligible to play three-on-three basketball with Obama, a big-time hoops fan and reputed aggressor on the court.

Obama has spent $3 million on Pennsylvania ads to date to Hillary's $500k.

Hillary will be on the Tonight Show with Jay Leno tonight. Fox News has a wrapup.

A regular on Letterman this campaign season, Hillary Clinton took a seat on the couch of his Los Angeles Late Night Rival — and took her share of good natured lumps. In an intro at the top of the show, she did a sketch skewering her 3am phone call ad, fielding a call from Leno asking her to appear on the show before saying “we’ve GOT to get caller ID.”

And in the monologue, Leno mocked her recent Rocky Balboa infatuation, saying “We have the Italian stallion on the show tonight — Hillary Clinton, ladies and gentlemen.”

She takes on the Bosnia snipers and Rocky:

Walking out to the theme from Rocky, Clinton told Leno she was worried she wouldn’t make the show — saying “I was pinned down by sniper fire.” Leno replied “In LA, that might be true.”

She also talked about Bill's excitability on the campaign trail.

A Research 2000 poll of Indiana voters is out today. It has Hillary 49%, Obama 46% with a 5 point margin of error. Full poll results are here (pdf).

The poll over-represented African-American voters. They make up 12% of those surveyed, but 9% of Indiana's population. 81% of those surveyed favor Obama to 16% for Hillary.

Obama had a big lead in the 18 to 29 age group, 63 percent to 36 percent, but in the over 60 age group, Hillary leads 60% to 34%.

And Hillary leads the 30 to 44 age group by 7 points and the 45 to 59 age group by 6 points.

Hillary's campaign says she isn't taking a single vote for granted and the race will be close. [More...]