It appears that the McCain campaign's argument this week for why it still has a chance is that turnout will be like 2004. There would have been a time where I might have bought into this type of thinking as a possibility. But after watching the record turnout in state afte state during the Democratic primaries, knowing that McCain is hardly someone who enthuses the conservative base and understanding the conditions in the country, I just do not see it. Andrew Kohut, whose Pew poll is spitting out some outrageous numbers, is however, correct when he says:

[T]he poll shows that roughly 12 percent of the electorate this year is black, up from 2004, with a similar increase among younger voters. Kohut defended this approach, saying there are historically high levels of interest in this contest among both demographic groups. At the same time, he added, "we've consistently shown less enthusiasm and engagement among Republicans than is typical, and the composition of the electorate shows that."

In any event, the WaPo pollsters, who show Obama with a 7 point lead, are not even using an expanded turnout projection:

Republicans are coming home to the GOP candidate. As a result the spread between Obama and McCain is smaller. The differences in the polls seems easy to explain - some pollsters are sticking to a tight likely voter screen - others are not. Among those hewing to a tight screen are Ras, which now shows a 3 point Obama lead, 50-47, Battleground, which also shows a 3 point Obama lead, and IBD/TIPP, which shows Obama with a 4 point lead, 48-44.

The pollsters with an expanded voter screen show Obama with a more comfortable lead. Among these are Hotline, which has Obama by 7, 49-42, DKos/R200, which has Obama by 6, 50-44, and ABC/WaPo, which has Obama by 7, 52-45. The tight vs expanded effect is well illustrated by Gallup, which has a foot in each camp. Its traditional LV screen garners a 2 point Obama lead, 49-47 while its expanded LV screen shows Obama by 7, 51-44.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Is anyone else experiencing Sudden Election Fatigue Syndrome?

My cases have become much more interesting this week and I'm barely watching the national news. I haven't even been online that much.

I think this will be the shortest election night in history. We'll probably know the winner when the polls close on the East Coast, unless there's a news blackout on returns and exit polls until voting ends on the West Coast.

It might be different if the race were closer, if McCain/Palin hadn't become a national embarrassment. Republicans can either pull their blankets over their head and hope it's a bad dream or fight among themselves about who made the worst choices -- their candidate, his VP choice or his own campaign staff.

Obama ran a masterful campaign and went the distance. I'll be looking forward to January when I can begin tracking the change he brings, but for right now, I'm election'ed out. Am I the only one?

A new Arizona poll finds John McCain's lead over Obama reduced to 2 points -- a statistical tie.

The same poll last month had McCain up by 7.

Today's LA Times/Bloomberg poll has Obama ahead in both Ohio and Florida.

The Washington Post reports McCain will focus on the economy in the coming week rather than national secuirty.

Does anyone care anymore what he focuses on?

Cutting off a deer's antlers to make a political point? There are some very sick people in America.

Police in Colorado Springs are looking for the person who threw the head of a deer into the parking lot of a Barack Obama campaign office. The head was found late Saturday night. The Humane Society says the buck's antlers had been cut off to make the head resemble a donkey, the symbol of the Democratic Party.

Police will step up their patrols of campaign offices in Colorado Springs through election day.

Michelle Obama is in Colorado Springs to speak at an early voting rally at 6pm MT. Our local news will probably live-stream it. Try 7News (ABC), 9News (NBC) or 4 News (CBS.) Update: Try here at this Colorado Springs station.

Dean Barnett, a conservative blogger, has passed away. Barnett was an antagonist of the left blogs, especially Daily Kos, when I was posting there. On a personal level, it appears he was a very fine man. Our thoughts go out to his family.

This is an Open Thread.

Steven Calabresi can't believe readers will take this Wall Street Journal opinion piece seriously ... can he?

One of the great unappreciated stories of the past eight years is how thoroughly Senate Democrats thwarted efforts by President Bush to appoint judges to the lower federal courts.

If only. Did Democrats block the nomination of William Pryor or Priscilla Owen or Janice Rogers Brown? Spare me.

[more ...]

Greg Mitchell asks:

I think that at least the groundwork has been established for powerful, even possibly semi-radical, reform to get a fair hearing from the media, and the public, in the years ahead. What happens after that hearing--who knows?

Not if actual progressive ideas are not championed by Democratic (as opposed to progressive) bloggers. For example, in extolling this Las Vegas newspaper column, Markos misses the Progressive forest for the Democratic trees. Even his mild criticism of the article misses the point in some respects:

PPP's NC poll has Obama leading by 1, 49-48. Obama could win this one in a squeaker. PPP's demographic results are fairly conservative. McCain leads among whites 60-36 (with whites comprising 76% of the vote) and Obama leading among African Americans 92-6 (comprising 21% of the vote). Obama leads among "Other" (comprising 3% of the vote), 67-25. There is some controversy about the size of the A-A turnout and the accuracy of exit polling in 2004. Since North Carolina is a state subject to the Voting Rights Act, it provides actual numbers by race. That said, African American turnout in the primary easily exceeded pollster's expectations of 20% of the total vote. In fact it was 33% of the vote in the Dem NC primary.

Obama can, indeed maybe, should, win in North Carolina.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

In the wake of the Ted Stevens guilty (times seven) verdict, John McCain bravely called for Stevens to step down. With the election just a week away, Alaska voters may relieve Stevens of the burden of making that choice.

McCain, of course, wasn't really all that brave to speak out at long last against his corrupt Republican colleague. Now that McCain has decided to attack Obama as "soft on crime," he can't very well ignore the latest glaring example of criminality within the Republican Party.

Sarah Palin, on the other hand, proclaimed yesterday "a sad day for Alaska and a sad day for Senator Stevens and his family" and promised to "carefully now monitor the situation and I’ll take any appropriate action as needed." She did not ask Stevens to resign. Instead, she complained about "the corrupting influence of the big oil service company up there in Alaska that was allowed to control too much of our state." What she did about that problem during her short service as governor went unmentioned.

[more ...]

Pew provides a ridiculous result:

Barack Obama leads John McCain by a 52% to 36% margin in Pew’s latest nationwide survey of 1,325 registered voters. This is the fourth consecutive survey that has found support for the Republican candidate edging down. In contrast, since early October weekly Pew surveys have shown about the same number of respondents saying they back Obama. When the sample is narrowed to those most likely to vote, Obama leads by 53% to 38%.

Pew is a real and respectable pollster. But this result is not to be believed. Zogby must be pissed - Pew is gonna grab the publicity. Zogby may go all in and predict a McCain win. h/t to Atrios for the phrase "poll pron."

*Misspell intentional for the filters.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

The SUSA Ohio poll, which has Obama up 4, 49-45, gives us another chance to do a demographic analysis.

SUSA has Obama winning African Americans (projected to be 11% of the electorate, up 1% from 2004) by 84-12. As usual, SUSA seems to understate Obama's A-A support. At worst, Obama will win 90% of the A-A vote. (Yes, I know Bush is said to have won 16% of the A-A vote in 2004, that is meaningless imo.) More . . .