Poll Pron:* Obama By 16

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 10:28:37 AM EST
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Pew provides a ridiculous result:

Barack Obama leads John McCain by a 52% to 36% margin in Pew’s latest nationwide survey of 1,325 registered voters. This is the fourth consecutive survey that has found support for the Republican candidate edging down. In contrast, since early October weekly Pew surveys have shown about the same number of respondents saying they back Obama. When the sample is narrowed to those most likely to vote, Obama leads by 53% to 38%.

Pew is a real and respectable pollster. But this result is not to be believed. Zogby must be pissed - Pew is gonna grab the publicity. Zogby may go all in and predict a McCain win. h/t to Atrios for the phrase "poll pron."

*Misspell intentional for the filters.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

< Political Demography: Ohio | Republican Reactions to Stevens' Verdict >

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Poll Pron:* Obama By 16 | 11 comments (11 topical)

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I wouldn't be surprised if the Obama number (5.00 / 0) (#9)
by Pegasus on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 11:25:37 AM EST

is correct in the end, but I can't imagine that the spread will be. 8% undecided is just too high a week out, and (anecdotally) fewer Obama voters are hiding their preference at this point.

Ha (none / 0) (#1)
by lilburro on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 10:33:12 AM EST

I wish I lived in that country.

heh (none / 0) (#2)
by andgarden on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 10:34:16 AM EST

Not a chance.

BTD - Watch your language (none / 0) (#3)
by scribe on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 10:36:28 AM EST

You'll set off the filters when you use the correct spelling of "Pron".

And then you'll get TL all sorts of headaches undoing the mess you make.

Good point (none / 0) (#4)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 10:38:37 AM EST

I'll change it to pRon*

[ Parent ]

Change it to: Poll 'I know it when I see it.' (5.00 / 2) (#6)
by steviez314 on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 10:43:03 AM EST

since you're all lawyers!

[ Parent ]

: Heh (none / 0) (#7)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 10:46:26 AM EST

[ Parent ]

Heh (none / 0) (#5)
by TheRealFrank on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 10:42:52 AM EST

Of course, the correct spelling is "Pr0n".

Anyway, this poll looks to be overly optimistic for Obama. Although Pew nailed the 2004 result.

That's my favorite Jeff Bridges movie. (none / 0) (#8)
by ThatOneVoter on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 10:58:58 AM EST

Why not, BTD? (none / 0) (#10)
by Donald from Hawaii on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 03:35:11 PM EST

BTD: "Pew is a real and respectable pollster. But this result is not to be believed."

I'm of the mind that Pew may not be as wildly off as you seem to think. Consider the following:

The Scholastic Presidential Election Poll, which has been sponsored quadrennially since 1940 by Scholastic News and Junior Scholastic magazines, released its final results on October 14.

Now, before you ROTFL, please note that historically, this children's pseudo-vote has often uncannily forecast the eventual popular vote margins in upcoming presidential elections, having missed by narrow margins only the 1948 (Truman v. Dewey) and 1960 contests (Kennedy v. Nixon).

Analysts who've studied this interesting trend have surmised that because children have yet to learn the fine adult art of rationalization, more often than not their expressed political opinions will actually reflect those of the important adults in their lives.

And this year, if our kids are to be believed, it really won't even be close: By an overwhelming margin, the schoolchildren preferred Barack Obama, 57% - 39%.

: Correction: (none / 0) (#11)
by Donald from Hawaii on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 03:42:27 PM EST

In addition to 1948 and 1960, the Scholastic Presidential Election Poll also narrowly missed calling the 2000 popular vote. By a very slim margin, kids that year chose George W. Bush over Al Gore, 50.5% - 49.5%.

[ Parent ]